That's absolutely true. All our spending right now will be a huge loss regardless. But I'm not convinced it will not be as devastating as most
people think. We have massive leverage. As long as we can balance this leverage on the dollar with domestic monetary policy, then we should be
good.
1) For example, too great a reduction of interest rates on the dollar would cause it to devalue, cause inflation, reduce the standard of living, and
ultimately diminish the ability of our citizens to provide tax revenue, allowing the world to safely relinquish its dependence on the US dollar as the
global currency reserve, as foreign investors sell off all their treasuries. The dollar collapses, meaning total economic failure and depression for
this country.
2) Increasing the interest rate on the dollar would be reckless, destroy the integrity of the banks, virtually freeze all lending, and stop all
domestic production. You would think that a high interest rate would attract foreign investment on the treasury... It would in the short run, but then
it would all be dropped as investors learn US assets are worth absolutely nothing. It would be a bubble, almost exactly like the recent housing market
bubble. But instead of mortgages being the toxic asset, the entire US economy would the toxic asset here.
History has shown us that an inflationary depression is much better than a deflationary one. You at least want the infrastructure to exist, even if
your dollar is weak. If the infrastructure is proven to be valueless, people will start tearing everything up, manufacturing plants included, for
scrap metal and materials to build their makeshift bunkers and bomb shelters.
You see this is all contingent on the fact that 68% of the world's currency reserves are in US dollars. If for some reason we were to abandon that,
then your assumptions would be totally correct. No other country in the world is in the secure position we are in right now, that their central bank
can experiment so liberally. Iceland just experienced both a deflationary valuation of its capital assets (houses, stock market, everything it
produces basically), and hyperinflation in its currency. So nothing they produce is worth anything, and they are incapable of buying anything outside
the country. This is what is essentially happening to the US right now, however, we're shielded by our dollar and the constant fear of foreign
investors, who see no other alternative but the dollar. The Fed is now able to cut interest rates on the dollar (something no other economy would be
capable of doing if they were in the same situation) so as to restore the domestic economy. However, you can expect interest rates to gradually
increase over the next year (assuming domestic economy actually picks up that is).
It's a two front war at the moment. Our businesses and financial institutions are doing horrible. So the government needs to bail them out to
stimulate the economy, and further cut interest rates so as to encourage domestic borrowing and private investment. Cutting interest rates should in
normal circumstances devalue the dollar on the international market, however lack of foreign investors' confidence in the rest of the world is
preventing that, as well as a reluctance to drop the dollar, as that would hurt their own economies as well.
But considering our situation, if hyperinflation were to ever occur, it would only devalue the amount of US debt held by foreign countries. And since
our debt is so massive and so ubiquitous... it would be virtually erased. However, the price of imports, such as oil and food would then skyrocket.
This would result in a lower standard of living, and economic collapse. If this should occur, it would technically be called a "depression".
However, the long run result would mean economic resurgence and restored investor confidence,
assuming the dollar survives. So it's a major
risk. They have to prevent deflation at all costs.
The US dollar has an advantage over every currency except the Euro and the Pound at the moment. It jumped considerably this week. This is of course
inflation, it's not real. But it means a secure standard of living in the short term, until we can fix domestic issues. So contrary to reason, we
managed to decrease the interest rate on the dollar and at the same time increase the value of the dollar. See how that makes no sense at all?
If our businesses continue to fail, and our mortgage brokers continue being crooks, then we will become royally screwed. Bailing them out was totally
morally wrong, but it was the responsible, ethical decision. The country needs the production right now, but what must be done in order to keep
production integrious and viable for the future, is to remove all the leadership and all the executives, as well as implement oversight committees and
more regulation to closely monitor these crooked operations.
It seems blatantly obvious to me that the government has little concern for its citizens. The government is going to induce inflation, inadvertently
or not, and they will rely on tax payers to foot the bill. If tax payers are unable, or unwilling to do this, then we will have hit a wall. The
Federal Reserve is playing a very risky game. They have to balance short term national interests (CitiGroup, Ford, GM) with long term economic
foresight (dollar, treasury market).
However, as long as tax revenue remains constant, the dollar is good. If we go to war, the dollar is better. You can bet your ass you'll see US
military involvement in Pakistan within the next year, whether they actually declare war on its government itself, or if they force an occupation to
combat "terrorism". Global military conflict will increase if we don't address domestic issues.
So if we're in a bind and nothing we produce is worth anything, and our dollar is incapable of buying anything from outside the country, then what do
we do?
How do we balance national monetary policy will international economic soundness? If nothing we produce is valuable, we can always make weapons. Since
we have the infrastructure to do so that no other country in the world has (the equipment, the education, the knowledge, etc.) it will put a demand on
the dollar like no other. In the worst case scenario, if the Fed can not accomplish its balancing act, the US will drag the world down with it to a
point of despair that war becomes completely and totally inevitable.
[edit on 8-12-2008 by cognoscente]