U.S. job growth soars

Originally posted by Alias Jones
good point - explain to me exactly how unemployment went up and so did job growth ?

I sure can...

The "jobs growth", more accurately called, the "Non Farm Payroll Survey" is promulgated by interviews with businesses that hired new employees in the non agriculture industries.

The unemployment numbers are promulgated by interviews with households.

They are two totally seperate surveys conducted by two seperate groups. Additionally, when you have some 353,000 new people entering the workforce each month 308,000 new jobs is still behind the curve.

80% of the jobs were created in the healthcare and service sectors while manufacturing actually LOST 2,300 jobs (I think it was 2300, it's 2:30 am and I read this at 10:00am yesterday) probably due to outsourcing and technology gains.

No matter how you look at it it is GOOD NEWS unless, as some one pointed out here, they come back next week with a big revision to the downside.

My concern is that these were "onetime" fill positions that had been needed for sometime. I know for a fact that nurses are in short supply all over the country and it isn't unthinkable that 100,000 nurses found positions upon graduating or returning to the workforce because of a great offer.

One month does NOT a trend make however. the "proof" will be in the numbers coming out over the next two or three months. If this level of growth continues for a solid quarter I would then beleive the "jobless" part of the economic recovery has ended and the nation is on its way to hugely prosperous business cycle.

The reality is the world is a very tenuous and fragile place at the moment. One big bang form a terrorist's attack and we go right back down the tubes again.

My instincts tell me this surge is anomolous to a substantial degree. Like I said above, I fear alot of these jobs were one time shots that won't be sustained based on the data I reviewed yesterday that indicated where the jobs were created.

All that being said, anytime you create 308,000 new jobs in one month it means some things are going very well. 308,000 jobs in a month carried out over a year would equate to well over 3,600,000 new jobs annually which is nearly unprecedented.

Hopefully this a sign of good things to come.

PEACE...
m...

It sure isn't soaring here in Michigan. Since George W. Bush took office, 140,000 manufacturing jobs were lost and the state�s official unemployment rate stands at 7.2 percent. 82,000 jobs were lost in just the past year. All our manufacturing jobs are downsizing or moving to Mexico. Electrolux is moving 2700 jobs to Mexico next year. Johnson Controls announced a couple of days ago that they will be moving production to Mexico, and 900 workers were told they would be laid off within the next 18 months. Herman Miller is cutting out 265 more jobs in addition to the hundreds that have already been laid off.

Where is this economic growth everyone is talking about?

Moon:

Are you near Zeeland? I ask because of the Herman Miller reference...

Back on topic now...

You are right. Manufacturing has taken it on the chin and apparently still is. As I indicated in my post above the manufacturing sector actually LOST jobs in this latest survey of 308,000 new jobs.

Advances in robotics and other technologies which, essentially are replacing Human workers coupled with the outsourcing to cheap labor countries (i.e Mexico) is going to keep that trend alive and well on into the future it seems.

One bright spot I read was an interview with the President of ManPower, Inc. who said some factories are looking to hire new employees next quarter because demand has finally outpaced the incredible productivity increases.

Most of these factories are in the south according to this guy however so I don't guess it'll help Michigan much.

The Herman Miller layoffs are unfortunate but make sense due to the lack of capital spending by businesses on new, high end, office furniture.

Herman Miller has been outflanked by the likes of HON and some other low price point manufacturers who have started making a really decent product. I hope Herman Miller can respond and regain the market share, I REALLY like their stuff. Nothing like an Eams armchair.

IMHO this country needs a BIG SHOT of ingenuity and creativeness, we already know we can't compete on the germain, simple products manufacturing against the low wage countries. This means we need to create new products that require the skill sets that can only be found in our workforce.

What those products will be is anyone's guess but if we want to maintain a viable manufacturing base we better get after it quick.

m...

[Edited on 4-3-2004 by Springer]

[Edited on 4-3-2004 by Springer]

Originally posted by Springer
Moon:

Are you near Zeeland? I ask because of the Herman Miller reference...

Yes. Both of my parents used to work at Herman Miller in the Aeron plant... Now they're selling designer upholstery fabric on eBay.

Here goes some more info for liberals to try and find the bas in:

The Labor Department's report from yesterday included revisions to earlier payroll figures found that companies added 205,000 jobs in January and February, instead of the 118,000 reported last month.

And a few links:

U.S. employers may have added 120,000 workers to payrolls in March, the largest gain in more than three years, and factory firings may have come to an end after 44 months, according to a survey of economists in advance of today's report from the Labor Department.

"You certainly can't call this a jobless recovery any more," Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co., told The Associated Press.


the U.S. economic recovery may finally be on a sound footing. If true, it also could dampen Democratic criticism of President Bush's economic record and likely boost his re-election prospects considerably.

308,000 jobs is an ok start, but considering how many people have went unemployed in the last 4 years, I wouldn't get too excited. Not to mention the recent 2,500 layoffs from Gateway just recently...

Interesting view of the employment situation:

The gain of 308,000 payroll jobs, while welcome, was canceled out by equally large losses in self-employment. Although the payroll figures leave out the self-employed, other data in the Labor Department report show that the number of self- employed Americans dropped by 304,000 in March. (Those figures, from a survey of households, show that the overall number of employed Americans was essentially unchanged in March. Like the payroll data, the household survey found that employment other than self-employment rose by about 300,000.) The shift from self-employment to payroll jobs may, in most cases, represent an advance toward more desirable employment, but it is not the pure employment gain it may initially seem.
releases.usnewswire.com...

Isn't it funny how the current administration is all over the news praising this increase. Now what they won't tell you is that this increase is a very small fraction of recovery for all the jobs they lost.

It is like going to a casino and winning $500 dollars for a $50 investment. Sounds awesome, you might call your friends. Oh but will you tell them that you lost $10,000 the week before? You can make anything look good as long as you are not willing to discuss all the facts.

I love the comments about record growth, yeah it is record growth, following historical losses...

Until you recover all jobs I cannot see how you can claim any advancement. Basically they are saying we suck, just not as much as last month, but we still suck...

For all the bad news this administration creates, they must cherish the few good things they can spin...

Speaking of spin, Bush in New Mexico talking about record home sales. True, this is a good sign. BUT, I can only give Bush so much credit for it. Home sales are good because the interest rates are low, and they're only low because the economy is bad. That's spin.
I also think certain groups aren't giving Bush credit for his tax cuts. They helped me a lot, and I'm far from wealthy. Things are going in the right direction, I truly think that...stay the course.

I also think outsourcing and 'offsourcing' is another sign we're taxing our businesses too much.

on outsourcing: In Mexico or other places that jobs are being moved to, it probably doesn't take $7000 per employee to keep someone employed either. Part of the problem are the demands that we make on our employers. We expect them to provide health insurance, paid vacations, and pay part of the Social Security tax for us. We may be the most productive workforce in the world, but we are also the most expensive.

I dont know about anywhere else but I am from upstate New York and the only jobs I see being added are in the service industries, like resturants and stores. Not the kind of jobs that pay the bills, considering the types of jobs we have been loosing in the past years. IMO its time to either get rid of or revamp nafta to keep our jobs here.
Just a quick question, what has happened with allowing mexicans into the country legally if they have a job? Are these the jobs they are reporting on?

These may be of interest:
Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?
Ten Myths about Jobs and Outsourcing



seekerof

Just as one person mentioned in their post how many of those jobs were outsourced????

As we get closer to the election you can bet you will hear more about so called "job growth" and who do you think will take the credit for these purported statistics prior to re-election??

don't believe we will a repeat of this month's numbers, not when you have Sun and Gateway cutting about 5000 jobs or so and now Bank of America is laying off 12,500 over the next two years!!!!
Bank of America to Cut 12,500 Jobs

All that being said, anytime you create 308,000 new jobs in one month it means some things are going very well. 308,000 jobs in a month carried out over a year would equate to well over 3,600,000 new jobs annually which is nearly unprecedented.

Thees ees good news! Abou' 300,000 new Americans arrive each month from across ze border. Vicente Fox be mucho amigo weeth el Presidente Bush!