OK, there's been a lot of data posted here, so I'm gonna take this one step at a time.
The Himalayan glaciers are indeed responsible for supplying water to a very large section of the world. That is without doubt. They are apparently
melting, although I am taking that statement at face value for now. Now as to the age, the radioactive indicators may or may not be a good dating
method worldwide. They have been used in other areas, but I am not 100% convinced that they are applicable at the highest point on earth. I would like
to find some corroborating data on these methods, but I have a problem keeping more than 200 tabs open in Firefox at the same time.
So for now I
will just say I am assuming for the time being that the data mentioned is verifiable.
Where I am getting lost is the concern over Global Warming and CO2 levels. I found this article (thanks to ProfEmeritus in another thread):
Second
only to the melting of the Arctic ice and those "drowning" polar bears, there is no scare with which the global warmists, led by Al Gore, more like
to chill our blood than the fast-vanishing glaciers of the Himalayas, which help to provide water for a sixth of mankind. Recently one newspaper
published large pictures to illustrate the alarming retreat in the past 40 years of the Rongbuk glacier below Everest. Indian meteorologists, it was
reported, were warning that, thanks to global warming, all the Himalayan glaciers could have disappeared by 2035.
Yet two days earlier a report by the UN Environment Program had claimed that the cause of the melting glaciers was not global warming but the local
warming effect of a vast "atmospheric brown cloud" hanging over that region, made up of soot particles from Asia's dramatically increased burning
of fossil fuels and deforestation.
Source:
www.telegraph.co.uk.../opinion/2008/11/23/do2310b.xml
So we have a competing theory as to the cause of Tibetan Glacial melt. Now as to the OP's link claiming globally rising temperatures are to blame
(this is on page 2, linked in the source link):
"At the highest elevations, we're seeing something like an average of 0.3 degrees Centigrade
warming per decade," Thompson said. "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects 3 degrees of warming by 2100. But that's at the
surface; up at the elevations where these glaciers are there could be almost twice as much, almost 6 degrees."
Source:
dsc.discovery.com...
0.3° per decade. The accepted melt time is 40 years, or 4 decades. 4 x 0.3° = 1.2° total temperature change globally. That means, assuming fresh
water, the glacial ice that has melted would have to already have been at a temperature of no less than -1.2°C. Actually, it could have been a few
degrees cooler since the lower atmospheric pressure at that height would have an effect on the freezing point of water, but still the glacial ice
would have to have been within 1.2° of the freezing point. Sorry, just not enough heat energy available from accepted global temperature rise, and
that does not account for the latent heat of fusion which would have to be added for the phase change to occur.
From MischievousElf's source about the possibility of oceanic rises up to 1.5m (4.5 feet):
Scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Durham
University and Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) collected boulders deposited by three glaciers in the Amundsen
Sea Embayment -- a region currently the focus of intense international scientific attention because it is changing faster than anywhere else on the
WAIS and it has the potential to raise sea-level by around 1.5 metres.
Source:
www.sciencedaily.com...
The diameter of the earth is approximately 7900 miles, making its radius 3950 miles. Using the formula for surface area of a sphere ( A=4(pi)r² ), we
can calculate the surface area of the earth to be about 196,000,000 square miles. The ocean surface is roughly 2/3 of that, or 130,000,000 square
miles, leaving 66,000,000 square miles of land. In order for the ocean levels to rise by 4.5 feet worldwide, an amount of ice equal to the water in
110,800 cubic miles would have to melt. That equates to a sheet of ice worldwide covering every single land mass over
9 feet thick,
if the surface land area did not shrink with the rising water (which of course it would). Keep in mind that oceanic ice will not affect the sea level,
because ice displaces an amount of water equal to the amount of water it holds (you can see this by filling a glass with ice water and marking the
water level; let the ice melt and the water level will not have changed).
There's not that much land-based ice in Antarctica!
In other words, the article MischieviousElf referenced cannot be taken completely seriously.
originally quoted by MischieviousElf
This freshwater going into the SEA which reduces its salinity and therefore its density and FREEZING LEVEL , think antifreeze??? has massive
implication as PROVEN in the past...:
Actually, salinity lowers freezing point. A drop in salinity will raise it. think anti-anti-freeze.
But the information you posted from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute appears basically correct. A large freshwater lake around the Hudson Bay area
did apparently spill into the North Atlantic and lowered the local salinity levels drastically. This caused the water density to decrease and slowed
the Gulf Stream to a crawl until the salinity levels could stabilize, and did indeed apparently drop temperatures in the Northern Atlantic area. This
was due to the Gulf Stream stopping, however, which was due to a sudden rapid influx of fresh water that threw off the density/temperature-driven
oceanic current system unique to the North Atlantic. In the first place, while this did make life very harsh for a short time, the Gulf Stream is
still with us today; it restarted as soon as the salinity stabilized, with no assistance form anyone. Secondly, in the Himalayas or the Antarctic,
there is no such warming oceanic current to concern with. Any oceanic currents would receive a small increase over a period of time from river-borne
meltwater in the Himalayas, which would probably not stop them as the sudden influx did to the Gulf Stream.
Now, as to
www.whoi.edu...
During the last four decades, oceanographers have observed large changes in the distribution of salinity, which appear to be related to the
gradual warming of the atmosphere
and
During the last four decades, the oceans have warmed over a very large depth range. That indicates that
the ocean has mitigated some of the warming expected from greenhouse gas increases because even a small temperature change in the ocean requires an
enormous amount of heat energy to be absorbed by the ocean.
Well, he's right about water requiring much more heat energy than air in order to raise its temperature. But as to the warming ocean depths and
changes in salinity? Well, there's another viewpoint:
When they were first deployed in 2003, the Argos were hailed for their ability to collect
information on ocean conditions more precisely, at more places and greater depths and in more conditions than ever before. No longer would scientists
have to rely on measurements mostly at the surface from older scientific buoys or inconsistent shipboard monitors.
So why are some scientists now beginning to question the buoys' findings? Because in five years, the little blighters have failed to detect any
global warming. They are not reinforcing the scientific orthodoxy of the day, namely that man is causing the planet to warm dangerously. They are not
proving the predetermined conclusions of their human masters. Therefore they, and not their masters' hypotheses, must be wrong.
In fact, "there has been a very slight cooling," according to a U.S. National Public Radio (NPR) interview with Josh Willis at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, a scientist who keeps close watch on the Argo findings.
Source:
www.nationalpost.com...
So who do we believe? Well, a close observation of Will Curry's words gives us a hint. Remember I said he was absolutely right about the heat energy
of water being higher than that of air? He was, but in the Himalayas,
there is no body of liquid water to melt the ice. That means that the
amount of heat energy the air would need in order to thaw the ice is many times the heat energy it would need to simply raise its temperature by 0.3°
per decade, and here again, this does not even address the energy required to change phase to liquid water. So here, even William Curry states (albeit
unwittingly) that the air temperature from Global Warming is not enough to cause the Himalayan glacial decline.
Wow, over 9000 characters and counting... think I'll take a break here and wait for a response (or at least my fingers to start working again).
TheRedneck
[edit on 27-11-2008 by TheRedneck]