Zogby: McCain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day

I'm confused because it looks as if this is today's result from the Zogby poll: Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%. This is directly from Zogby's site.

Link

reply to post by round_eyed_dog


His polls are a three day rolling average. Only one day of the three showed the 48-47 lead.

The same thing happened in Gallup's tracking poll a few days ago. There was a 3 point swing in one day, and one could calculate that in order for it to happen, McCain must have had a 51-47 advantage for that one day's results.

In both cases, its not really indicative of anything more than day-to-day polling variance. The margin of error may be 3-4% for the sampled group, but statistically, one out of every 20 or so will provide results outside of that.

Funny thing is that this "movement" started right after Dr. Savage endorsed McCain.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I think it's a one day fluke. An anomolie.

(did I spell that right? )

Maybe they accidentally let the correct poll show instead of trying to demoralize McCain supporters by tweaking the real results.
DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS!
it is ALOT closer than they want you to think!

CNN POLL: Obama is 10 points AHEAD of McCain. Zogby is bias, and has a very small conservative base compared to unbiased National polls. ... and even on Zogby now... from the site ITSELF... Obama is leading. This report/OP is false

[edit on 2-11-2008 by -zeropoint-]

Originally posted by -zeropoint-
CNN POLL: Obama is 10 points AHEAD of McCain. Zogby is bias, and has a very small conservative base compared to unbiased National polls.

... and even on Zogby now... from the site ITSELF... Obama is leading. This report/OP is false

[edit on 2-11-2008 by -zeropoint-]

CNN unbiased!
now that is funny.
thanks for the laugh.

reply to post by -zeropoint-


CNN's final poll has Obama ahead by 7, 53-46.

Link

Of course, that result is highly likely to be BS. Why? 1% are reported as undecided. Most polls are showing around 5% as undecided and the AP released a poll earlier this week indicating that as many as 1 out of every 7 voters could still change their minds.

That would hold true historically as well. According to the exit polls available on CNN (the data is actually gathered and compiled by Voter News Service), in both 2000 and 2004, 11% made their decision within three days before the election and a total of 17% in the final week.



[edit on 2-11-2008 by vor78]

It seems that faux news has been falsifying the news again or at the very least under reporting and/or stretching things a bit... not that is surprising:

On Saturday morning, Drudge trumpeted the latest one-day finding in John Zogby's latest three-day tracking poll on the presidential race. While Zogby's three-day average still shows a 5-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain, the pollster notes on his site today that McCain led Obama by one point, 48 to 47, in the last day of surveys.

More cautious than Drudge, however, Zogby says that it's too early to declare that McCain has made decisive gains over Obama. "If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on," Zogby writes.

But as the Huffington Post reported on Thursday when discussing the latest Fox News poll, Zogby has a unique methodology in his polling. He fixes -- or "weights" -- the partisan balance of his respondents, unlike most pollsters. While his admirably transparent and stable practice guarantees a certain methodological sameness from day to day, therefore making any new lead for McCain worth reporting, Zogby's partisan weighting can also raise other questions.

Asked earlier this week what the partisan weighting of their poll currently is, a Zogby aide told the Huffington Post: "Party ID remains at 38 Democratic - 36 Republican - 26 Independent. We have added a point for 18-29 [year old voters], 1.5 for African Americans, and 2 for Hispanics."

Earlier this year, Zogby told me that "party ID is a lead variable, and a major determinant in how people vote. I apply a weight to party ID, and if I see a reason for it to change, I will."

Still, Zogby's two point party ID advantage for Democrats is the smallest of any polling firm. The last four days of the Hotline/Diageo poll show anywhere from a four- to six-point advantage for Democrats -- and a simultaneous seven-point lead for Obama. Gallup's latest surveys indicate that Democrats have an 11-point advantage over Republicans in party ID (including what the firm describes as partisan "leaners").

Zogby's partisan makeup gives even less of a partisan advantage to Democrats than Fox's latest poll, which earned some skepticism, as well.

As for the day-to-day fluctuations in tracking polls, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz says they are "almost entirely due" to random statistical error, or "noise."

"The trackers don't move in sync with each other -- one goes up, another goes down," he tells the Huffington Post. "This is what we are seeing today in fact. Already we see that Obama is down in Zogby but up in DailyKos and Rasmussen. No doubt we'll see more of the same in the next three days. There is no evidence here of any real trend toward McCain in either the national polls or the state polling as smart analysts like Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com and Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin of Pollster.com have shown."

For what it's worth, McCain lead pollster Bill McInturff sees things Zogby's way. In a Friday conference call with reporters, McInturff said "I don't see how you have party ID at negative 8 [percent for Republicans]. That's not America ... anywhere in the last generation and a half."

Aside from determining the next president, Tuesday's election might be used to settle a few scores in the polling profession, as well.

www.huffingtonpost.com...

[edit on 2-11-2008 by grover]

For McCain to win the election, the polls will need to be off by 10%- to 11%.

So - 5.5 from Obama and +5.5 to McCain. If it doesn't happen like that, Barrack will be the (most protected) President.

My advice to both of them; leave the US Constitution alone.

Beyond that, be very careful what you type about a Presidential candidate online.

I think each poll made by every single pollster is absolutely true and that each is a wormhole into a new dimension. Dimensions where time and light merge to become confetti. Wait a minute...what am i talking about?

POLLS MEAN NOTHING

Now Zogby is all pissy because Nate Silver caught him in a lie.

Current news 11/02/08, from Zogby:

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by 38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

www.zogby.com...

From Gallup via Drudge Report 11/02/08:

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Outpace McCain
Holds 8-point lead among “traditional likely voters”

PRINCETON, NJ -- Voters' presidential preferences remain favorable to a Barack Obama win on Tuesday, with 51% of traditional likely voters supporting the Democratic nominee for president, and 43% backing John McCain. An additional 1% say they support some other candidate, leaving 5% undecided.

Zogby's final poll before the election:

Obama 54

McCain 43

Now why isn't that in sirens at the top of Mr. Drudge's website?

Oh that's right...

Ah, the fixing has already begun.

Next you'll have all the state controlled media suggesting that McCain is even more likely to win, then they'll say he has, and before you know it McCain is president.

Sad though I think it is, there are far too many very wealthy people in positions of power who will not let Obama be president.


If he becomes president, I'll eat my hat.