Bradley Effect?!?!?!?

Please move this if it is in the wrong thread.

I have been hearin a lot of talk lately about the supposed Bradley Effect. This is the idea that white people lie to polsters as to not appear rascist but then vote white in the voting booth when no one can see. FOX is especially pushing this story.
I see how it makes the perfect setup for a fixed McCain win. "Oh all those white people lied to the polsters."

I just have one big problem with this.

Record crowds gathering to see him time and time again.

Why are not these secretely rascists people just staying home or going to McCain events?

I think they are trying to set us up for a fix.

Does anybody think there is a scenario where McCain fairly Wins and Obama and his hordes of FANS don't cry voter fraud, Racism, Etc?

reply to post by Irishman



Sure, if there is a clear majority of people that clearly wanted him in. So far, even the most concervative polls can only make it tight, but can still not put McCane ahead. We already know that the last two 'close' races made it real easy for people to cry foul. If it was obvious that more people wanted McCane, then sure. So far crowd turnout, donations, poll numbers all kind of go against that don't you think?

How about the CNN effect? Which is when media stations make crap up so as to get rid of the good candidates and leave the bad ones for consideration, all the while hyping the candidate that most fits the profile they want elected? Shouldn't we consider this one first?

reply to post by Zepherian


No, we should not consider that first.

I completely agree with you that that was what went down but they ain't coming back. This thread is not about alternative universe's. I am pretty sure it is about the potential election, which I am afraid precludes that formentioned.

Good idea for a thread though, I think you have something there. Something else, but something.

zeph, your message seems to go against the new political policy on ATS... you might want to check it out here: www.abovetopsecret.com...

now, OP, I wouldn't be too quick to judge yet... The bradley effect may actually be real... we won't know this yet...

I am only going to cry foul if the exit polling vs the actual polls show a huge difference.

If you are right, it would be difficult to prove... which leads me to believe you may be right to begin with

the secret to a stolen election is making it look legit

reply to post by nj2day



But look at the crowds. Obama keeps pulling in record numbers of people who willingly choose to make an effort to go out of their way to be someplace where they can almost see him in the distance. That has to mean something. Are those the same people that are telling pollsters they will vote Obama but are really rascists and will vote white?

I'm not trying to take sides here as far as Dems or Reps this november...

However the bradley effect theory is only accounts for less than a 5% difference between the polls and the actual vote.

5%... that means for every 100,000 people who show up for the huge rally, 5,000 decide not to and stay home...

I'm not saying the bradley effect is real, or it is a factor here, I'm just stating that we don't honestly know until the election results are in, and experts go to work evaluating.

For what its worth, there are also theories of a "reverse bradley effect" happening this time around... where people in some of the less tolerant areas of the country won't admit to pollsters that they are voting for Obama, but ultimately will in the long run... that might be something to look at as well...

My honest prediction, for what its worth... McCain by a slim margin... not because he wins, not because he's a better candidate, but simply because he's got the same swagger and certainty that bush had when he "knew" he was going to win florida.

I truly believe this election has been rigged, and the deck has already been stacked.

reply to post by nj2day


I agree that McCain alread knows he is going to win. That is why I agree they are whipping this old horse out to set up some of the excuses for it. The problem is that last time they did not also have such a huge public showing of intentional support. Not just passivel poll answering but real actual support. Obama has it in the bag obviously numbers-wise, but I know McCain knows he will win too.

its sad... they'll use the bradley effect as the excuse... completely setting back our countries race relations by several decades...

welcome to the Republican Dynasty

reply to post by Tiamanicus


I really would not base any expectations for a possible Bradley Effect on crowd size. We're talking about something that, at the absolute most, may affect 6-8% of the voting public, but probably closer to half that. So we're talking about 5-10 million voters out of a likely 140 million this year.

I doubt any of them will have been attending Obama's campaign rallies. Maybe a few went to see what all the hype was about, but they will not be among his loyal followers.

The people subject to a Bradley Effect will be the fence-sitters, who may tell the pollsters that they're leaning somewhat to Obama, but actually aren't.

Additionally, as conservatives have become more wary of the media, their tendency to hang up on or intentionally lie to pollsters has been on the rise as well. That could be a possible source of unintended systematic bias towards Obama in the polls and something that could be blamed on a Bradley Effect when it really isn't.


[edit on 27-10-2008 by vor78]

Originally posted by nj2day
its sad... they'll use the bradley effect as the excuse... completely setting back our countries race relations by several decades...

welcome to the Republican Dynasty

The Republicans won't use it as an 'excuse', the pollsters and media will as a means to explain why they were wrong. The Democrats, meanwhile, will immediately use it in order to explain away Obama's loss and accuse everyone who voted for McCain, particularly those in the south and the plains states, of racism.

Afterall, Democrats have never lost an election on the merits of their arguments, at least in their minds and if they lose this one, you can bet the excuses will be flying fast and furious. To their thinking, it certainly can't be that America rejected their perfect candidate.

[edit on 27-10-2008 by vor78]

Nah, the Democrats lost plenty of elections... and they haven't been afraid to admit it. (Dukakis, wow, there was a regular o'l ball o' fun eh?)

The only thing that kinda makes them believe things are less than honest are the way the last 2 elections appear to have been stolen...

This all sounds like pumping the primer on a few good reasons for losing the election. I am sure that whatever party loses their will be plenty of excuses as to why it was the others fault. The Dems are the only ones I see readying the cannons in advance. The old grade school addage works well for both parties.... No one likes a sore loser.

Note that the polls get closer as we come near to the elections. This is due to the pollsters' need to retain credibility and no be too far off on election day. Until this point they have simply been creating news for those who fund the polls.

The polls will be quite close at the end, and it is quite possible that a "Bradley Effect" could put McCain in the White House.

reply to post by vor78


Well.... when by all accounts more people want Obama or Ron Paul. Clearly McCain is losing baddly in the polls. The best they can do is finesse a close race but not even a tie out of the polls. And yet you feel a McCain win should just seem fair?

Perhaps you missed the last two elections where there was a great deal of fraud. The supreme court hands the win over to the person who lost the vote the first time. The second time around, it is suspected that there heavy fraud in OH and that has barely been resolved now has it? So....when you lose twice in a row due to unfair calls by the ref, yeah, you probably do start to get a little suspicious.

But what do you care, obviously the handed you the winner you wanted right? I am sure if Obama wins and the supreme court says McCain is president, that will be just fine with you right?

Who cares about the constitution or democratic election of our leaders.

Please add to existing discussion Here

closed.