It's almost over- Obama and the Bradley Effect..

reply to post by Fromabove


If you read Marx, there's no way you could say that without knowingly making a joke.

So, I'll provide cover and pretend that you did.

But if indeed you are serious. The only thing can say is, read Marx.

[edit on 25-10-2008 by Areal51]

the bradley effect. wether you vote for or against mccain he will still win. the powers at be, already picked mccain. so look forward to mccain as pres. the powers at be are already at work on making mccain the one. like acorn. votes. like what cnn said, a typo. so now you could be a typo. you will see, mccain is your man. not mine. im not voting, they both, sss. im like the guy on tv. with his sign in front of his house. so we the people, get mccain. live with it. thats the way it is.

OP,

I agree with you that "pollees" are maybe not telling pollsters the truth. Perhaps this "Bradley" effect will account for a 4 point swing to McCain. However, I would also say that the split of Democrats, Repulblicans, and Independents is also a little askew toward the Dems in most of the MNM polls. I think guys like Zogby generally get it right and he has a big undecided of 10 % with Obama under 50%. I think Obama is almost running as the 'incumbent' in this race. I agree with the OP that McCain will win the swing states including VA, NC, NH and OH. Not so sure about PA. They tend to "stuff the ballot box" in Philadelphia so its always an uphill battle in that state.

I do believe that the Bradley effect is real, but when you look at the polls, Obama is ahead in polls in all the battleground states and is penetrating in some red states.

Now if you break down the polls even more you would see that Obama leads in all of the issues that affect peoples live directly except foreign policy.

In addition, the amount of new voters that has been registers (voter registration fraud nonwithstanding) would also countereffect the Bradley effect.

All this said I would not be surprised if McCain wins by a small margin, the same way I wont be surprised if Obama wins by a landslide. Now if it is a landslide it would speak volumes as to how far this nation has come when it comes to race.

To tell you the truth I think that this is the only way that McCain could win.

I guess I'm part of the Bradley effect.I have been called and asked who I will vote for.I said Obama which is an outright lie.I also voted for Obama in the primary election to keep hillary out of the race.
So I suppose voters can lie just as well as politicans.

reply to post by daddyroo45


Ohh, that's dirty. Don't think I'd brag about that. :shk:

reply to post by Sublime620


I'm not bragging,just stating the fact.Throwing your vote in the primary elections has been the way of the world for a very long time.

reply to post by daddyroo45


Guess that depends on which world you choose to live in.

Originally posted by daddyroo45
I guess I'm part of the Bradley effect.I have been called and asked who I will vote for.I said Obama which is an outright lie.I also voted for Obama in the primary election to keep hillary out of the race.
So I suppose voters can lie just as well as politicans.

This intrigues me. I have been asked before and I tell them RP, and when they remind me he is not on the ballot i tell them i will write it in.

But what baffles me is why would you feel you have to lie to them about your voting choice?

Originally posted by Sublime620
reply to post by daddyroo45

 

Ohh, that's dirty. Don't think I'd brag about that. :shk:

Democrats did this to Romney by voting for McCain they ensured that Romney lost.
So don't get all high and mighty. dirty tricks are played by both sides.

reply to post by deathhasnosound


Mostly for the fun of it.They put so much stock in these stupid polls.I like to throw a wrench in the works.This happens quite a bit in exit polls too.It's supposed to be a secret ballot so why tell them the truth?

reply to post by deathhasnosound


I never said anything about that. Actually, I admonish anyone from any side who intentionally throws their vote to hurt the other party. It's dirty, cheap, and should be illegal.

Also, much of the commotion in the conservative party was caused by Rush Limbaugh when he staged a coup and asked his listeners to help.

I ususally lie to exit pollsters; most people I know do so also. And the 2004 election showed that many people lie to exit pollsters. Kerry had supposedly won the election, according to exit polls.

But this time, if I am asked I am afraid that I will not be able to hold back. There is no way on earth I will vote for Obama, and I will give them a dozen reasons why not.

reply to post by jsobecky


I don't remember that. I remember watching and Kerry was pretty much down the whole time... but I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

Originally posted by vor78And BTW, the Bradley effect is not a display of overt racism by those voters. It is a fear of being labeled racist.

Well what about the reverse effect? I mean I bet there are a lot of black people that SAY they will vote for the white guy so as not to seem racist too right? They may tell the POLLSTERS that, but when it comes down to it they just might vote based on race.

I think it could work either way. Nobody wants to seem racist afterall.

reply to post by Sonya610


Also known as the "Reverse Bradley Effect". As most things do, it works both ways.

Originally posted by Sublime620Also known as the "Reverse Bradley Effect". As most things do, it works both ways.

Uhhh...I was being sarcastic. In many areas 98% or more of the black population claims they are voting for Obama and they sure as heck aren't saying that so they "won't seem racist".

If they say it and DON'T mean it then I guess they would be lying so they DO seem racist. Keeping it real and all.

Is there a name for the opposite of the Bradley Effect as I understand it? I mean what if you tell your constituents you're on the bus for McCain and have all the McCain lawn signs and tell your friends what they want to hear but secretly you vote for Obama?

reply to post by Sonya610


Normally, I would say yes, it would be reasonable to expect the opposite to be true, and indeed, it probably is. But in this case, given that they vote overwhelmingly for Democrats in every election, its predictable and a 'reverse' Bradley Effect can be accounted for and eliminated. If 20%+ were claiming to be voting for McCain, it would be a very strong indicator that something was wrong. You might even be able to cut that percentage in half this year.

reply to post by Sonya610


I won't quote you, only so that you have an opportunity to erase your remarks and not be viewed as a complete bigot.

First of all, there are plenty of blacks who are republican. To think it's not possible that they exist is stupid. And to think they don't face the same pressures as whites do is also stupid.

Second, it's obvious how you view blacks. It sickens me.

Third, not only do some blacks face the same social pressure as whites when polled, blacks are often under-polled. 1

So, I suggest you rethink your position, and at least, if you aren't going to widen your narrow view of the world, at least edit it and pretend like you aren't a bigot.

reply to post by newguyhere2


That is the Bradley Effect. The reverse Bradley Effect would be under-polling of blacks or, quite simply, the exact opposite of the Bradley Effect.

[edit on 27-10-2008 by Sublime620]