Obama's lead over McCain shrinks

Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
The time is just not right yet for an African-American president in this still racially devided nation PERIOD. That alone is troublesome.

I disagree and I'm from the deep south. This African-American is not the right person. You put the right African-American on the ballot and he will be elected. They picked Obama because he looks good and talks good. If Colin Powell had run this time, I think he would have won.

The Obama hype is gonna die just like his big acceptance speech was eclipsed by Palin. Something just tells that McCain has to win for better or for worst.

I think that if McCain wins, Palin will be the first woman president.

Originally posted by Lucid Lunacy

Originally posted by MBF
All his ties to organized crime doesn't help either.

Sounds like you have a lot of juicy information.

Willing to make a thread on ATS explaining all about all the various organized crimes he is involved with?

I would like to, but I'm putting in some long hours right now. I have relatives that live in the Chicago area that have been telling me what kind of person Obama is since he started running for president. They were all for Obama for senate until they got him and found out what he is. They are surprised that the media is not jumping on all of his mob ties more than they are.

reply to post by MBF


Well I can't say I am surprised because I don't know what you are talking about. I am going to assume he has no mob ties until I see the info, it's only fair. But I am looking forward to reading it when you get the chance.

[edit on 19-10-2008 by Lucid Lunacy]

Mob ties? Let's see it please...

I believe the trend will continue leaving Obama and McCain neck and neck on election day. I do not want a close election even if it benefits my candidate because then we will have to go through another 4 years of people wondering.


It wouldn't amaze me if McCain takes a 2-3 point lead towards the end of the last week.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
I believe the trend will continue leaving Obama and McCain neck and neck on election day. I do not want a close election even if it benefits my candidate because then we will have to go through another 4 years of people wondering.


It wouldn't amaze me if McCain takes a 2-3 point lead towards the end of the last week.

It's only close on CNN and other news networks because they want to drum up a tight race so people continue to tune into their broadcasts. If you look at polls such as Gallup you'll notice that Obama is at 52 with McCain at 42, which has pretty much been constant all through October with McCain not ever really getting a foothold.

reply to post by AndrewTB

Originally posted by davion

Originally posted by AndrewTB
I believe the trend will continue leaving Obama and McCain neck and neck on election day. I do not want a close election even if it benefits my candidate because then we will have to go through another 4 years of people wondering.


It wouldn't amaze me if McCain takes a 2-3 point lead towards the end of the last week.

It's only close on CNN and other news networks because they want to drum up a tight race so people continue to tune into their broadcasts. If you look at polls such as Gallup you'll notice that Obama is at 52 with McCain at 42, which has pretty much been constant all through October with McCain not ever really getting a foothold.

CNN? What about credible pollsters like Rasmussen? They are all showing the shrinking trend, and McCain is starting to fall within margins of error (which is a good thing). Even Gallup shows it with Obama and McCain being almost neck and neck on traditional likely to vote.

I still dont hold a lot of credence in polling though.

I think a lot of libs are in for a very big surprise come election day. They have claimed victory far too soon!

[edit on 10/19/2008 by AndrewTB]

History of polls right before the election....

1976 Carter led by 6% only won by 1%
1980 Carter led by 3% loses to Reagan by 10%
1984 Reagan led by 4% ends up winning by 18%
1988 Bush led by 2% ends up winning by 8%
1992 Clinton led by 12% only won by 6% with the help of Ross Perot
1996 Clinton led by 22% only won by 9%
2000 Gore led by 6% won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College
2004 Bush wins...polls got it right

www.anncoulter.com...

Really don't want to hear anything about Coulter...please discuss the #'s and how polling for some reason skews towards Democrats, and why Obama and his supporters should be very worried with their small lead in the polls.

Originally posted by RRconservative
History of polls right before the election....

1976 Carter led by 6% only won by 1%
1980 Carter led by 3% loses to Reagan by 10%
1984 Reagan led by 4% ends up winning by 18%
1988 Bush led by 2% ends up winning by 8%
1992 Clinton led by 12% only won by 6% with the help of Ross Perot
1996 Clinton led by 22% only won by 9%
2000 Gore led by 6% won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College
2004 Bush wins...polls got it right

www.anncoulter.com...

Really don't want to hear anything about Coulter...please discuss the #'s and how polling for some reason skews towards Democrats, and why Obama and his supporters should be very worried with their small lead in the polls.

The trends you posted also show that republican turnout is higher than expected when their candidate is in danger. I wish there were more detailed info on it.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
CNN? What about credible pollsters like Rasmussen? They are all showing the shrinking trend, and McCain is starting to fall within margins of error (which is a good thing). Even Gallup shows it with Obama and McCain being almost neck and neck on traditional likely to vote.

I still dont hold a lot of credence in polling though.

I think a lot of libs are in for a very big surprise come election day. They have claimed victory far too soon!

[edit on 10/19/2008 by AndrewTB]

According to Rasmussen's daily snapshot today McCain is trailing in many states Bush locked down in the 2004 election and Obama appears to be winning most Kerry states. Couple that with the fact that it mentions that Obama nearly has enough electoral college votes even without leaners and I don't see how you can say it's "tightening up"

The CNN Poll of Polls still has it at Obama 49% and McCain 43%, but I don't trust the polls that CNN uses for this. The Gallup Poll today has it at Obama 52% and McCain 42%, which is conducted by calling voters, not having voters (and non-voters) coming to them. I also think that you will have a big Democratic turnout, given the past two elections. If the McCain campaign doesn't turn around it's conservative base pandering, and starts to try to address the Independent moderate voter's concerns, he will not win this one. With the ecomomy in the crapper, he must start addressing this issue with something other than "I know how to fix it". If not, he is only going to slip further in the polls, and in the end lose the race.

[edit on 19-10-2008 by JaxonRoberts]

reply to post by JaxonRoberts


Are you familiar at all with this "bradley effect"?

I don't know what to think of it myself. Do you give it any merit?

bradley effect

I truly hope it has no merit.

Obama still can't close the deal.
The staged financial crisis was a few weeks premature and now it may cost Obama the election.
Time to go, need to fill up my car.

reply to post by Lucid Lunacy


I have, and I do think it will have some effect, but with the economy as it is, I think the fear of the economy worsening will win out over the fear of a African-American President. If the polls were closer then it might make the difference, but with a double digit difference I think that Obama will take the general election. You also have to remember the electoral college. On the CNN electoral college map, Obama already has more than enough states to win the election. Currently they are forcasting it at Obama 277 to McCain 174 with 270 needed to win. McCain would have to win all of the toss-up states and take one back from the Obama column. Definitely an uphill battle.

reply to post by Alxandro


Wait...

are you suggesting the financial crisis was staged for Obama?

reply to post by Lucid Lunacy



Don't think it was staged for Obama, but they were actively rooting for it. Anything bad for America is good for Democrats...has been for the last 8 years.

I really don't know how much credibility should be taken in the polls. I know that in the area i live in...which is just north Grand Rapids, MI., people all around here have McCain signs in their yard with very few having Obama. I'd say it's almost 20 to 1. I know this is just my area...and Obama is leading by 10 percent in Michigan by recent poll numbers...in fact i don't know too many that are planning to vote for Obama...this includes my workplace which is in Grand Rapids.

I think Obama is going to get the majority of the Urban vote...McCain will get the majority of the rural vote. Where does the majority of the population live? Is it urban or rural? I think that in itself will be a huge deciding factor in this election.

We'll see what happens on election day.

Originally posted by RRconservative

Don't think it was staged for Obama, but they were actively rooting for it. Anything bad for America is good for Democrats...has been for the last 8 years.

Jesus Christ. Are you serious?

The last 8 years has been the Bush Administration and Co. capitalizing quite nicely from the war in the Middle East, and subsequently their oil partnerships. That's just one example of the MANY that has been discussed on ATS many times over. You are soooo one-sighted. That was a ridiculous statement on many levels.

"Anything bad for America is good for Democrats"???

Democrats, just like Republicans, are also citizens of America. We all live here and experience the calamity regardless of our political ideologies!

Originally posted by JaxonRoberts
You also have to remember the electoral college.

Oh yeah I didn't forget about them! That's a layer of cheese I am willing to take off. Bah!

On the CNN electoral college map, Obama already has more than enough states to win the election. Currently they are forcasting it at Obama 277 to McCain 174 with 270 needed to win.

Thanks for that info I was out of the loop on that status.