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Originally posted by camaro68ss
so any ideas on when we should head for the hills, Literally?
My que is when JP morgan, or Bank of America fall.
Originally posted by Vitchilo
Originally posted by camaro68ss
so any ideas on when we should head for the hills, Literally?
My que is when JP morgan, or Bank of America fall.
Head for the hills... you should be using the time we have left to set up some kind of ``cabin`` outside cities with food, guns and ammo...
I think it has to get much worse before heading for the hills.
Its not inconceivable that we could be in full crisis mode by the end of this week. The situation with Italy feels increasingly like one that has little chance of materially improving until some extreme pressure is put on someone to act. It may not come to a head this week but the signs are not good that we can avoid an extreme situation emerging soon.
#19 U.S.
Credit to GDP ratio: 5.1%
Loan deposit ratio: 147%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 92.7%
Total score: 4.8
#15 Canada
Credit to GDP ratio: 23.4%
Loan deposit ratio: 199.3%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 81.7%
Total score: 5.1
#14 Italy
Credit to GDP ratio: 25.3%
Loan deposit ratio: 165.2%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 118.4%
Total score: 5.2
#11 Netherlands
Credit to GDP ratio: 15.7%
Loan deposit ratio: 158.7%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 66%
Total score: 5.4
#9 Belgium
Credit to GDP ratio: 22%
Loan deposit ratio: 98.1%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 100.2%
Total score: 5.5
#8 France
Credit to GDP ratio: 19.4%
Loan deposit ratio: 163.6%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 84.2%
Total score: 5.5
#5 UK
Credit to GDP ratio: 35.2%
Loan deposit ratio: 150.5%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 76.7%
Total score: 6
#1 Ireland
Credit to GDP ratio: 56.1%
Loan deposit ratio: 187.3%
Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 99.4%
Total score: 7.6
Without a plan, even a flawed plan, Europe will simply close for business on an International basis. If and when that happens, the whole world will freeze right along with it. The deeper we go into this disruption, the lower corporate earnings throughout the world will be. The lower the profits, the fewer the jobs, until no company on earth can predict with any certainty what their business will look like tomorrow.
The threat of such an outcome is very real and extremely scary. Tens of millions of jobs are at stake. The fate of the financial world as we know it hangs in the balance, and traders are going to bed every night wondering if the head of France will still be in power in the morning.
It's ugly and it's real. Not all fears are irrational. Sometimes there's a monster under the bed and a boogeyman in the closet. This is one of those times.
That's why the market is so volatile and that's why it matters whether you own stocks or not.
Originally posted by Vitchilo
Why European Crisis Fears Slammed U.S. Stocks
Without a plan, even a flawed plan, Europe will simply close for business on an International basis. If and when that happens, the whole world will freeze right along with it. The deeper we go into this disruption, the lower corporate earnings throughout the world will be. The lower the profits, the fewer the jobs, until no company on earth can predict with any certainty what their business will look like tomorrow.
The threat of such an outcome is very real and extremely scary. Tens of millions of jobs are at stake. The fate of the financial world as we know it hangs in the balance, and traders are going to bed every night wondering if the head of France will still be in power in the morning.
It's ugly and it's real. Not all fears are irrational. Sometimes there's a monster under the bed and a boogeyman in the closet. This is one of those times.
That's why the market is so volatile and that's why it matters whether you own stocks or not.
Here's a plan : let the big banks fail. Stop paying debt to bankers. Nationalize your central bank. Stop doing insane spending. Stop giving unlimited loopholes to the top 0.1%.
ENFORCE THE DAMN LAWS against EVERYONE, including cops, politicians, lawyers, judges, bankers...
In the pre-dawn darkness of a chilly LA morning, my day started off with a chuckle. A friend in the reforestation business sent me an email detailing the US Department of Agriculture’s new ‘Christmas Tree’ tax that was approved yesterday. I thought it was a joke. It wasn’t.
One can only laugh at the absurdity of the government getting involved in such a matter. But it’s happening more and more.
Along the way as they slide down the slippery slope of economic calamity, governments typically hit the accelerator by resorting to financial repression; rather than making the economy open and attractive to talented people and investment capital, they instead confiscate, inflate, and overregulate.
These tactics include oldies but goodies like civil asset forfeiture, capital controls, and a host of whacky new taxes. Like a Christmas Tree tax, for example.
Sumptuary laws (regulation and taxes over lifestyle habits) are quite common, dating back to the Renaissance period ‘beard taxes’. If you wore a beard during the time of Peter the Great in Russia, or Henry VIII in England, you paid a tax to the government for the privilege.
There are many modern day equivalents of the beard tax– taxes on cigarettes, mobile phones, vehicles, luxury goods, etc. We should expect the introduction of even more– a national sales tax, an Internet tax, a carbon emissions tax, and a financial transactions tax.
With German Consumer Price inflation coming a little hot, Wholesale Price index deflating MoM (and less than expected YoY), and Finnish Industrial Production turning negative unexpectedly, (and now French Industrial Production and manufacturing dropping significantly)
Copper is the disaster du nuit (for now) as it is now -6.5% from Friday's close. As the dollar strengthens the rest of the commodity complex is falling fast and TSY yields are dropping rapidly also.
UPDATE 1: Italian Bond Futures opened -1.7%
UPDATE 2: Credit cracking hard now XOver +35bps, Main +8bps, SENFIN +13bps
UPDATE 3: BTPs opened +16bps at 569bps over Bunds
UPDATE 4: OATs trading over 150bps wider than Bunds for first time ever
Dismal data from French manufacturing and industrial production along with growing chatter of a 'core' Europe strategy having been discussed is sending spreads among sovereign bonds notably wider.
French spreads just broke 152bps and Spanish spreads to Bunds also broke to new record wides.
EU Cuts 2011 Euro-Area Gdp Growth Forecast to 1.5% From 1.6%
EU CUTS 2012 EURO-AREA GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 0.5%
EU SEES FRANCE DEBT AT 89.2% IN 2012, 91.7% IN 2013
EU SEES SPAIN DEBT AT 73.8% OF GDP IN 2012, 78.0% IN 2013
EU SEES IRELAND DEBT AT 117.5% OF GDP IN 2012, 121.1% IN 2013
EU SEES PORTUGAL DEBT AT 111.0% OF GDP IN 2012, 112.1% IN 2013
EU SEES AVERAGE EURO-AREA DEFICIT FALLING TO 3% LIMIT IN 2013
EU SEES EURO-AREA DEFICIT AT 4.1% OF GDP IN 2011, 3.4% IN 2012
EU SEES U.K. DEFICIT AT 9.4%/GDP IN 2011, 7.8% 2012, 5.8% 2013
EU SEES IRISH DEFICIT AT 10.3%/GDP IN 2011,8.6% 2012, 7.8% 2013
EU SEES SPAIN DEFICIT AT 6.6%/GDP IN 2011, 5.9% 2012, 5.3% 2013
EU SEES ITALY DEFICIT AT 4%/GDP IN 2011, 2.3% 2012, 1.2% 2013
EU SEES GREEK DEFICIT AT 8.9% IN 2011, 7.0% IN 2012, 6.8%/2013
EU SEES GREEK GDP DOWN 5.5% IN 2011, DOWN 2.8% IN 2012
EU SEES GREEK GDP GROWTH OF 0.7% IN 2013
EU SEES ITALY GDP GROWTH 0.5% IN 2011, 0.1%/2012, 0.7% IN 2013
European stocks fluctuated between gains and losses as Italy sold one-year bills at record yields and the European Central Bank was said to be buying the nation’s bonds.
Earlier today Italy sold €3 billion in 1 year Bills at an average yield of 6.087%, the highest since September 1997, and almost 3% higher compared to a month ago. Yet there was a stunning twist: the 1 Year was trading at a whopping 7.75% in the gray market minutes before the auction, or almost 200 bps wide of the auction result, something which never happens under normal conditions unless the invisible hand of the central bank has anything to say about it. Now we know already that the ECB stepped in to aggressively mop up Italian bonds in the secondary market immediately after the auction to bring 10 year yields below 7%, however briefly: the bond has since widened above that level once again. Yet what is shocking is the primary market strength for the 1 year: since the ECB is prohibited by law from intervening in the primary, auction market, we wonder just what illegal backdoor funding scheme the ECB has concocted with friendly banks in order to have the auction price where it did, and how much money was transferred by back door channels to keep Europe from imploding one more day.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and other party leaders were holding talks with President Karolos Papoulias after squabbles over a new premier pushed unity government plans into disarray, undermining a bid to secure bailout funds needed to prevent a financial collapse.
Any agreement that had been reached fell apart shortly after Papandreou’s speech as Karatzaferis, the head of the fourth-biggest party in parliament, walked out of a meeting with Papandreou and Samaras saying he was opposed to Petsalnikos.
Italy’s Senate rushed to pass debt- reduction measures that clear the way for establishing a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti in a bid to restore confidence in Europe’s second-biggest debtor.
The Senate is set to vote tomorrow on a package of measures including asset sales and an increase in the retirement age.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said the ECB can’t do “much more” to stem the euro region’s debt crisis.
“Not much more can be expected from us, it’s up to the governments,” Knot, who also heads the Dutch central bank, told lawmakers in The Hague today. “Interventions can only have a temporary and very limited effect.” Knot also said “the effect of interest-rate cuts in the current situation is limited.”
Europe started the day poorly, following up on the weak close and its own poor economic data.
Then the ECB got involved and started buying Spanish and Italian debt aggressively. Rumors is that the ECB will have unlimited buying power for Italian debt once the austerity bill is passed.
The current buying spree is completely expected. They can't resist intervention and in spite of a massive inventory of unmarked underwater bonds, still believe it does something.
According to a German CDU finance spokesman, shrinking Euro-area would be deadly for Germany
Germany is likely to have net new borrowing of 22 billion euros this year, almost half the 48.4 billion originally planned for 2011, two government sources familiar with budget plans said on Thursday.
European Central Bank governing council member Klaas Knot said on Thursday he had not been involved in discussions about a smaller euro zone.
Deeper euro zone integration is necessary to face the challenges of the sovereign debt crisis the European Commission said on Thursday.
Unemployment hits new record high
* Jobless rate climbs to 18.4 pct in Aug vs 12.2 last year
* Number of unemployed at 907,953, up 48 pct y/y
* Youth unemployment at 43.5 percent, twice its 2008 level
Italy represents a clear and present danger to the euro zone, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Thursday.
Governor of the Bank of Greece from 1994 to 2002
Vice President of the European Central Bank from 2002 to 2010
He has served as Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in 1980
During his time as Governor of the national bank, Papademos was involved in Greece's transition from the drachma to the euro as its national currency.
He has been a member of the Trilateral Commission since 1998.
As governments around the euro zone are felled by a widening sovereign debt crisis, a perceived loss of sovereignty to the IMF and the European Union is raising prickly questions of democratic legitimacy.
CRISIS OF NATIONAL DEMOCRACY?
Some politicians, notably in Italy's center-left opposition and among Greece's hitherto governing Socialists, are attracted to the idea of a temporary government of technocrats.
That may be because they are keen to avoid the odium of having to impose pay and benefit cuts and tax rises and roll back welfare and labor rights themselves.
Olaf Cramme, director of the Policy Network, a center-left think-tank, said national policy mistakes and a failure to explain the implications of economic globalization to European societies lay behind the growing legitimacy deficit.
"We are witnessing a crisis of national democracy as much as of European democracy. People's trust in national governments is extremely low,"
CRISIS OF NATIONAL DEMOCRACY?
Europe’s banks may need to boost capital by as much as 400 billion euros ($550 billion) to provide an adequate cushion against losses on government bonds, four times the increase estimated by the industry, according to Neptune Investment Management Ltd.
Europe’s banks will need to increase capital by 106 billion euros under tougher rules being introduced in response to the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis, the European Banking Authority said on Oct. 28.
It appears that AAA rating, which means Austria is still eligible to fund the EFSF, may soon be cut, putting even more pressure on Germany and, of course, France, and thus concerns for ratings downgrades there, to bear the brunt of what is an increasingly impossible bail out plan for Europe. It also means that the market will now be fearing not only a kneejerk reaction to the perpetual French downgrade terror threat courtesy of S&P and Moody's, but can now add not only Hungary and Belgium but also Austria to the list of countries due for some inverse rating agency love trim. As for the catalyst: "In two weeks, Moody's analysts to come to Vienna to assess the situation on the ground. Felderer considers it possible that Austria would put on negative outlook in this review."