The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by nydsdan


There are some interesting things going on right now.

The way I see it you are just getting better and better opportunities in the long run.

If you take a look at the monthly charts of EUR USD it makes you wonder if the EUR could do a full turnaround and start getting real bullish and try to touch the top side of the consolidation triangle again.

I'm kinda glad I'm not in the game right now just because I think the market has gotten pretty tough at this stage to gauge.

Not really high enough to start shorting and not really low enough to start buying. Best bet would prob. be to keep your hands in your pocket till the next big move shows itself.

I am starting to see a lot of varying opinions in the currency market all the sudden and that pretty much makes me wonder.

I haven't been the hottest thing lately, so I am interested in other opinions.

___

GBP/JPY - damn, I wish I could keep my hand out of the cookie jar. Would still be riding this great wave. Good call btw - you deserve credit for your position.

Things like this really make me believe the market (US Equities) should still climb.

Newest fron Dan Hoenig

Remember Dan Hoenig is the only member that has voted to raise rates so far. He came out with this at 12:00 today.

Rates Low = Market High

Can't argue with history.

hey, man....
i see all the price action as jockying for position for thr carry trade. euro...eur/aud especially....so the aud/usd gets in on it.

reply to post by nydsdan


Ahhhhh I see. That sounds like a good theory. The ol' option scam.

OK so maybe this is the up week that burns all the put buyers and sets up the sellers with a much higher price point from which to continue selling next week? I'd like that. They can have an up week as long as they follow with three down weeks.

reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire


Sounds about right. I wouldn't bet on it though, but only because I'm not betting on a darn thing right about now. Too much volatility for my taste. Like GBM, I am bowing out for a spell. We should really know what direction things are going (down) by March. March should be an interesting month.

reply to post by GBP/JPY


I guess I don't read into things like you do, but that could be the case as well...


Too many varying opinions and like others have said, it is my opinion that right now you could just get caught in the "slop" of this quasi volatile market.

I didnt see today, but I am guessing volatility sold off again. That should put it down to the low 20's once more. Lately, everytime we have dipped below 20 all pro's have bought it up.

I still really think this market has to prove a lot of people wrong.

Or it could be like gold and almost make that double top but maybe just misses and slides. This formation happened in gold recently, I'm personally in the camp of overbought gold as well - I think that needs to be in the 800-900 range to shake out all that retail money that has been pumped in. When has it ever been that easy?

[quote


Or it could be like gold and almost make that double top but maybe just misses and slides. This formation happened in gold recently, I'm personally in the camp of overbought gold as well - I think that needs to be in the 800-900 range to shake out all that retail money that has been pumped in. When has it ever been that easy?

I have but a passing intrest in charts, nor do I trade currencies, but 800-900 gold would mean a remarkable gain in the dollar and the euro and the global economy. Gold ETF's have put gold into a overbought situation, but retail investors aren't gonna sell to buy equities or anything else for that matter (at least not soon) If gold hits 1000 or less retail investors will buy.In addition I think India buying 100's of tonnes of gold put a artificial support in place.

Your thoughts.

also, GBM, whats a good resource forex trading? outside of websites, any books or schools you would recommend?

reply to post by jacksmoke


sorry, what do you mean resource? like learning tool? let me know

about gold - see my thread here explaining my position, and yes I know that infers a bullish dollar - I see that as well - but I am a pretty conflicted person if you read a lot of my opinions


Thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


yup, learning tools. thx

I do read your posts on this thread and a couple other threads when I run across them.

I think think that the gold vs. dollar vs. commodities vs. economy is in a weird place. the only way I can think to describe it is "behind the power curve" Its a aviation term used to describe a condition when the the airplane is hanging by the propeller, not really flying, its only being kept airborne by the thrust of the engine. In that condition everything acts differently. All the old controls are there, but they act and feel differently. I know this sounds crazy, its just my way of trying to make sense of bizzaro-world market relationships

reply to post by jacksmoke


There are many cases for a bull market.

1. low rates
2. dan hoenig now reversing rhetoric.
3. super fast drop before this early last year.
4. only our first technical touch of the 200 EMA daily so far this rally (needed to do this eventually)
5. historically when the market does not perform to expectation in last 10 years percentage wise, it will make up for that and gain the next 10 in expectations all in the next 10 years. (check internet for this, i am unsure of %'s etc. but it is a fact)

There are many cases for bears

1. Dollar in super bullish consolidation wedges on monthly scale against a lot of currencies.
2. Can we keep these gdp numbers up?
3. Jobless recovery (depends how you view this)
4. History in a way because our drop in the early 70's, the bull run that ensued fizzled out around this point percentage wise and then drifted lower till late 70's

We know market is forward looking - so it is continually factoring in future risk. Keep that in mind, a lot of people do not realize this. It is also a place where big money wants to buy at wholesale prices and continually sell that off to us (the retail chumps). Keep that in mind as well if you will venture in equities.

Regarding forex -

Get a micro account with FX OPEN or FXCM.

Put in like 10 dollars.

It might sound weird, but you should also get aggressive with a portion and lose. That will teach you risk management. What I preach, but I did not perform. You will get on "tilt" just as I at one point, and better to do it with your micro account and not a percentage of your net worth.

Also, if you are intelligent I can point you in the direction of some very mathematical talk about risk management. I would read all you can at forexfactory.com - there are some pretty intelligent people there.

But I really think you should learn how to lose and how that makes you feel. That is why I am automating everything, I dont have the mental game, im too much of a gambler at heart. I cant avoid it. But anyway, you will also need to learn how you will trade. Are you swing trading? Are you laying big lots for a scalp? What will be your time horizons?

You have a lot of work to do before you risk anything other than your micro. But I do recommend getting in, and you will lose at first anyway. It is unavoidable. But learn how to lose, and then you will learn risk management. Dont want to sound like mr. miyagi here or anything lol, but IMO thats what it is.

[edit on 17-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 17-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 17-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Greek Ex-Minister: Other Euro Countries Did Swaps Too

Greece's 2001 deal to swap some of its debt using currency derivatives was in line with what other euro-zone countries were doing, Yiannos Papantoniou, the country's finance and economy minister when the deal was made, told CNBC.com Wednesday.

All of this thanks to those worldwide traitors, Goldman Sachs.

UPDATE: Building permits going down the drain, another recovery sign!

JAN 2010 621k
DEC 2009 653 K

Lowest so far...

But the Housing starts are higher...

Housing Starts Jan 591K DEC 2009 575K

That's funny since millions are homeless...

Industrial production up by 0.2%, probably weapons manufacturing...or ammo.

Capacity utilisation +0.7%... weapons...

[edit on 17-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

Dow high on 1-14-2010 was 10,767.15.
Dow low on 2-5-2010 was 9822.84.

The 61.8% retracement level is 10,406.42 and today's Dow high was 10,406.58.

There really is some mathy option scam going on. This market really is going down. Yippee! They're mathatizing a nice fat top move that is going to paint out a visual 1-2-3 top that everybody will agree on, and then the stocks will start to selloff again. The guys running this show are hella awesome.


[edit on 18-2-2010 by Cabaret Voltaire]

As I though... the European Union will take the authority over all sovergnity course...

Greece loses EU voting power in blow to sovereignty

The council of EU finance ministers said Athens must comply with austerity demands by March 16 or lose control over its own tax and spend policies altogether. It if fails to do so, the EU will itself impose cuts under the draconian Article 126.9 of the Lisbon Treaty in what would amount to economic suzerainty.

We gonna see some explosions when Ireland suffers the same thing from Brussels.

And will they try the same thing with the UK when they are bankrupt in a few months? The UK signed the lisbon treaty but don't have the euro yet...so it's a tough call.

Suggestion to Greece : get the hell out of the EU.

[edit on 18-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Cabaret Voltaire


Quite astute.

I think what you are witnessing actually is support and resistance. Take a look at the daily chart and draw a line crossing from that mini breakout we had about a month or so ago, and that is now the resistance to the past two pushes we have had underneath the 20 EMA Daily. I can post a picture later

reply to post by GreenBicMan


www.sierrachart.com...


Here you go, with Fib levels

WHAT THE HELL!

They just raised interest rates!

Fed Raises Discount Rate to 0.75% From 0.50%

...

“I'm shocked. Completely shocked,” Todd Schoenberger, managing director of LandColt Trading said of the Fed’s move to raise the discount rate. “It makes me wonder if the CPI number coming out tomorrow is going to be just absolutely horrible—maybe they got wind of something,” he said.

[edit on 18-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo


It's the discount rate. I think this is the rate that banks borrow money from each other overnight or something like that. It's not the federal funds rate, or the rate you are probably thinking of. I am pretty sure people have been speculating about this for a while. I could be way off though, someone else def. smarter than me can right the ship.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
WHAT THE HELL!

They just raised interest rates!

Fed Raises Discount Rate to 0.75% From 0.50%

...

“I'm shocked. Completely shocked,” Todd Schoenberger, managing director of LandColt Trading said of the Fed’s move to raise the discount rate. “It makes me wonder if the CPI number coming out tomorrow is going to be just absolutely horrible—maybe they got wind of something,” he said.

[edit on 18-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

Maybe it has to do with this insight:

Not saying we will actually see inflation that high since it could never be admitted in govstats, BUT that means the Fed will soon be under incredible pressure to raise rates no matter what...and that drives a stake through any prospects of a return to higher general levels of employment. (see next story)

The whole article:

urbansurvival.com...

So now do you all expect bonds to crash even more?

I think when they raise rates, real soon, it will crash even more the house market...

We are on the verge of this whole joke ending.

This whole thing is probably in reaction to Wholesale Price Index rise of 1.4% in the month of January. Annualized that would come to 16.8% increase and an even greater increase in the CPI.

Inflation is FINALLY HERE. But it's more stagflation..

The central bank said the move should not be viewed as a signal that it will soon boost interest rates for consumers and businesses

Epic BS.

The banks are raping people, well, this guy ain't taking it!
Frustrated Owner Bulldozes Home Ahead Of Foreclosure


The banks are waging war on our economy, this guy is adopting the scorched earth war tactic!

[edit on 18-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

Finally some good news!

Walmart suffers first US sales decline

In the important holiday quarter ending on January 31, net sales at Walmart’s 3,400-plus US stores fell 0.5 per cent year-on-year to $71bn (€52bn). Comparable store sales declined 2 per cent. Customer traffic also fell.

Wal-Mart going bankrupt would make my day for years. But I'm not holding my breath.

[edit on 18-2-2010 by Vitchilo]