The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by stander
By Jobe Stander yer in da money!!!

Ya couldn't call it much closer even with yer Crony & Co Deluxe Keyboard!!!

Alt+Ctrl+Lock ...there's the Majik Combination!!!

Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,241.67 4:02pm ET Down 96.28 (1.03%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 994.35 4:03pm ET Down 12.75 (1.27%)
NASDAQ Composite 1,969.73 4:03pm ET Down 22.51 (1.13%)

[edit on 8/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by stander
Rules should be abide by. That thing needs to stay long-term logarithmic and there is no way that any market analyst who hasn't managed yet to grasp the change in the rules can't hope to stay in business talking.

What do you mean by long term logarithmic? Thanks.

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by stander

 

By Jobe Stander yer in da money!!!

Ya couldn't call it much closer even with yer Crony & Co Deluxe Keyboard!!!

Alt+Ctrl+Lock ...there's the Majik Combination!!!

Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,241.67 4:02pm ET Down 96.28 (1.03%)

Unfortunately, my projection was 9,242.03. I never make apprentice junior trader at Goldman Sachs. But if I work hard enough I may make a senior janitor one day, which comes with pay raise and the honor to dust Mr. Goldman's desk.

A very large shoe getting ready to drop...

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Shares of CIT Group Inc sank 20 percent Tuesday after the troubled lender delayed filing its second-quarter report with regulators and again warned it may have to file for bankruptcy.

reply to post by stander



The Dow looked a little less bearish after the morning dew dried and the QE situation started unfolding a little more bullish for the short term. Glad Redhatty is still hanging around to infuse some sanity into this thread.

I'm not buying a linear 17% increase based on the remaining QE but stranger things have happened.

UPDATE 1-US may face second recession-Harvard's Rogoff
www.reuters.com...

BOSTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The United States faces a prolonged period of sluggish growth and perhaps another recession in the next five years, Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.

The U.S. recession that began in December 2007 is close to an end, and economic growth will hover near a sluggish 2 percent for the next five to seven years, he said.

"We're going to be Japan-light," he said in an interview, referring to Japan's years of sub-par growth after its financial crisis of the 1990s. "We won't have a lost decade, but we will face some of the same challenges."

UPDATE 1-Mexico June industrial output falls 10.6 pct yr/yr
www.reuters.com...

Canada June bankruptcies surge as job losses kick in
www.reuters.com...

China Exports, Lending Fall, Adding Pressure on Government to Aid Economy
www.bloomberg.com...

[edit on 8/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
reply to post by stander

 

The Dow looked a little less bearish after the morning dew dried and the QE situation started unfolding a little more bullish for the short term. Glad Redhatty is still hanging around to infuse some sanity into this thread.

I'm not buying a linear 17% increase based on the remaining QE but stranger things have happened.

Who is selling 17% linear increase and over which period?

[edit on 8/11/2009 by stander]

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
What do you mean by long term logarithmic? Thanks.

I deleted the regression I made, but essentially it looks similar to this one.
leam-calculus.activemath.org...

The curve intersects the x-axis at x(0)=1, which is the 2009 bottom point that the Dow curve made in March. Given the circumstances, I believe the best way out of the economic crisis is a logarithmic development. the Dow really follows the logarithmic function the best out of all basic options. The major competitor is the power function. But that one may project itself to continue as a virtual horizontal line under bearish conditions, whereas logarithmic development continues to add some values to the y-axis. That means the Dow continues to move ahead under a bearish rally. Sudden intermediate moves in either direction means that the strategy to get the economy going is made of tactics with holes in it.

It's like when an accident happens. Any paramedic tells you not to move the victim unless absolutely necessary. Any abrupt shifting may cause further internal injuries.

reply to post by stander


The reports we are reading about the 300 billion worth of quantitative easing that started back in March seems to coincide with the timing of our stock market rally.

Recently the UK Bank of England stated that they would be pumping another 50 Billion quid into their system and the the US MSM responded by stating that we have only used 250 Billion of the 300 billion US QE before todays auction.

Probably 16% left now.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
reply to post by stander

 

The reports we are reading about the 300 billion worth of quantitative easing that started back in March seems to coincide with the timing of our stock market rally.

Recently the UK Bank of England stated that they would be pumping another 50 Billion quid into their system and the the US MSM responded by stating that we have only used 250 Billion of the 300 billion US QE before todays auction.

Probably 16% left now.

I don't understand the math behind the QE -- namely what portion went to the stock market. Suppose that everything went there. That means each member of the DJ was propped on average by $10 billion. Since McDonald's is worth $60 billion. there is a 1/6 ratio. But the the Dow gained 50% of its value it had in March, the bottom day. And I don't even mention those guys listed on S&P 500. That means all QE propping is a few peanuts for the market. So the underlining idea is that when the QE is over, the market takes a notice, coz the gas tank would be empty. The problem is that the market didn't drive on QE alone by any means, as the comparison above clearly shows.

If you can spare a bit of time, peruse this:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

That's where $$$ "quantizely eased" into, I guess.

Shanghai Composite 3,231.71 9:41PM ET Down 33.02 (1.01%)
Nikkei 225 10,503.02 9:14PM ET Down 82.44 (0.78%)
Straits Times 2,593.60 9:34PM ET Down 3.70 (0.14%)
Seoul Composite 1,563.56 9:15PM ET Down 15.65 (0.99%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,898.64 9:15PM ET Down 10.38 (0.15%)

Hmmm...strange coincidences...a 2 week over-seas vacation...14+11=25...

Aren't people speaking in hushed tones of a Bank Holiday ~August 25th???

Might want to keep an eye out for other "vacations"

Benmosche Said to Start AIG Tenure With Croatian Trip (Update1)
www.bloomberg.com...

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Benmosche, the chief executive officer of American International Group Inc., plans to spend part of his first month leading the insurer in Croatia on vacation, according to two people familiar with the situation.

Benmosche, 65, who started yesterday as CEO and president of the bailed-out company, will leave for about two weeks, according to one of the people, who declined to be identified because the plans were private. Mark Herr, an AIG spokesman, said the New York-based firm wouldn’t comment on CEO travel.

“It’s probably not a propitious time for an incoming CEO to begin with a vacation,” said Steven Seiden, president of New York-based executive recruitment firm Seiden Krieger Associates. Seiden said that while the absence won’t hurt the company’s financial position, “from a public relations standpoint it’s probably not the wisest thing to do.”

[edit on 8/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Hang Seng is down over 500 pts tonight

Waiting to see how Europe reacts to that....

popcorn anyone??

In the land of the rising sun, the losers scored against winners 7 to 1 and became the winners. That's a big ratio that may carry over to the next match -- unless the US markets issue the "not to worry" notice. But that notice could take much longer to write and there is even a good chance that the pen is out of ink for tomorrow. What we saw today wasn't the quick profit taking.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/da69da48cde5.jpg[/atsimg]

The curve bottomed out well beyond 11am, and the Dow resembled an old guy who has difficulty to get up from his sofa. And so there is a very good chance that after a nearly month or so, three losing days in a row are in the making. The closely watched financials appeared to be out of breath yesterday when the losers outnumbered the winners 6 to 1 in the Dow.

Things should improve tomorrow a bit, but the Dow is likely to finish in red colors again. The morning will set the pace.

Related reading

[edit on 8/12/2009 by stander]

@ Red: Got mine + Pizza and da washdown!



Fed uncertainty, China sell-off rattle stocks
finance.yahoo.com...

All Ordinaries 4,345.90 2:47AM ET Up 11.50 (0.27%)
Shanghai Composite 3,112.72 3:00AM ET Down 152.01 (4.66%)
Hang Seng 20,435.24 5:21AM ET Down 638.97 (3.03%)
BSE 30 14,981.96 5:26AM ET Down 92.63 (0.61%)
Jakarta Composite 2,347.36 5:00AM ET Down 51.92 (2.16%)
KLSE Composite 1,180.54 5:05AM ET Down 5.74 (0.48%)
Nikkei 225 10,435.00 3:00AM ET Down 150.46 (1.42%)
NZSE 50 3,079.69 1:31AM ET Up 24.22 (0.79%)
Straits Times 2,571.31 5:10AM ET Down 25.99 (1.00%)
Seoul Composite 1,565.35 5:04AM ET Down 13.86 (0.88%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,898.90 1:45AM ET Down 10.12 (0.15%)

Europe stocks flat; utilities gain, financials weak
www.reuters.com...

FTSE 100 4,671.15 5:23AM ET Down 0.19 (0.00%)
CAC 40 3,456.23 5:38AM ET Up 0.05 (0.00%)
DAX 5,303.90 5:23AM ET Up 18.09 (0.34%)

Stock index futures signal dip ahead of Fed
finance.yahoo.com...

DJIA FV Futures 9206.45 9201.0 -5.45
S&P FV Futures 991.95 990.3 -1.65

[edit on 8/12/2009 by Hx3_1963]

The Hang Seng has a support level down near 20400 that it has reached three times without breaking through. The Asian investors still seem to be anchored by the western markets.

The US dollar index seems to have found a triple top ceiling up near 79.50 and the FTSE actually just rallied into positive territory. My concern with being short is that yesterdays sell off was only due to worry that the Fed might announce a radical change in quantitative easing or even raise interest rates.

If the Fed announces no major changes before September then the US markets should rally in relief and resume range trading through the end of August. This should indeed be a critical day and I hope I don't regret running with the bulls even though I did not buy any long positions.

And in the news,

US Trade Gap Widens in June on Oil Prices

Well the Markets are playing the increase of imports from China to the US as a good thing.

They are now telling people that they should be happy with the coming holidays because they will have more goods in the shells to buy.

NO, that is not what is going on, the American "stimulus" is stimulating the wrong Country as usual China is getting the best of Obamas stimulus. Still how people are going to buy if they are losing their benefits and jobs.

The U.S. trade deficit widened in June to $27.0 billion, as goods imports increased for the first time in 11 months on the back of higher oil prices, a Commerce Department report said on Wednesday.

Analysts surveyed before the report had expected the monthly trade gap to widen to around $28.5 billion. But stronger foreign demand for U.S. goods and services offset some of the impact of the oil price increase on the deficit.

So the gains on exports will once again will be wipe out with foreign demand of goods in the US.

www.cnbc.com...



[edit on 12-8-2009 by marg6043]

What is going on with Europe!!!!! something is going on with their markets, supposedly they are to infuse their banks with stimulus money but the Fed in the US is warning of possible inflation because this move by the EU.

I can not find anything in the media yet but it was talks about this in CNBC.

reply to post by marg6043
Hmmm...more "Green Shots" and "Better than Expected"?

Where? :shk:

FTSE up 0.4 percent after BoE inflation report
www.reuters.com...

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index rose in midday trade on Wednesday, as the market breathed a sigh of relief after the Bank of England's inflation report, with energy and banking stocks among the biggest blue-chip gainers.

By 1105 GMT, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was up 19.67 points, or 0.4 percent, at 4,691.01, after closing down 1.1 percent on Tuesday, its biggest fall in a fortnight after hitting 2009 highs on Friday.

British inflation will be well below the 2 percent target in two years if interest rates rise in the first quarter, the Bank of England said, suggesting markets are pricing in rate hikes too early.

British unemployment hit its highest rate since 1996 in the three months to June, official figures showed, while the number of people claiming jobless benefit rose broadly as expected in July.

Banks were among the top blue-chip risers, rebounding after falls earlier in the session, as investors' attention shifted away from ongoing fears of potential cash calls in the sector to positive noises from the inflation report.

[edit on 8/12/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Wheeeeeeee.....

Today is FOMC day, where millions of traders will be staring bug-eyed at the screens watching the 5-min. charts on virtually everything, and the Hi-Fi trading machines will be turned off temporarily and all stock trades will be in the hands of the 19-year old joystick experts.

Kids are running the candy store this morning, this afternoon may be very interesting...

reply to post by RolandBrichter
Yeah the DXY is falling as I type here...

TNX is rising before the auction...

Oil and Distil Inventorys up big, but, Oil still rising...Hmmm...

Can anyone say, "Disconnect"... :shk:

[edit on 8/12/2009 by Hx3_1963]