The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by Dbriefed


You are looking at charts of misinformation my friend.

Look to the 20-50-200 **EMA**..

And right now you want to look to the NASDAQ for guidance as the DOW and the SP500 are LAGGARDS.

That sentence above is very important.

I have charted what I believe is happening if you look a few posts up I quoted a post I posted about a week ago I believe.. we need to test the 50 EMA to move higher and thats what we did today.. just about right on the number infact...

In a perfect world tomorrow will "bounce" perhaps an intraday break and then a strong rally..

If you have anymore questions, let me know.. 1, 2, even 3 day moves mean NOTHING in this market, and you will notice all the naysayers and doomsday people come out of the woodwork after a few days of losses.. see what most people do NOT realize is that TA has about 90% to do with everything, and thats why you ALWAYS FADE THE PUBLIC..

Just MO's there of course...


EDIT:

Also, I guess as a warning.. you will have to go back about 30 pages or so, but I posted a chart (or you could just look in my media profile) of what will happen if we dont break this resistance.. AND IT IS NOT PRETTY.. basically it will confirm we are in a huge down wave and I have drawn the lines of support on the chart... just check my media profile page you will see it

[edit on 22-6-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


but just a week or two ago you were saying there was money to be made and stuff was looking good.

Ah well, good thing I cashed everything out last year before the markets fell.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
see what most people do NOT realize is that TA has about 90% to do with everything, and thats why you ALWAYS FADE THE PUBLIC..

TA has about 90% to do with everything? No it doesn't. The only thing TA does is explain in graphical terms what happened after the fact...every technical analyst has different ideas because it is just a guess about a graph based on another graph...go listen to them sometime, each one "sees" something different. If TA was such a precise art (as it would be since it has 90% to do with everything), then it wouldn't be how it is.

Are you just giving an excuse to neglect your studies?

The bad news about the revised world GDP figures has probably been factored in today. Normally I would expect some technical consolidation after such a large move down but investors may be starting to see a larger correction. In Russia the Micex index dropped 7.6 percent, I wonder if they know something we don't?

The ongoing story about bonds and treasuries competing with the equity markets should be the dominant influencing factor as we move forward.

That article about the Feds squeezing liquidity in the slush fund to move people out of stocks and into US treasuries was interesting. Could be more than coincidence that a similar move last fall prompted a big selloff in stocks.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate

That article about the Feds squeezing liquidity in the slush fund to move people out of stocks and into US treasuries was interesting. Could be more than coincidence that a similar move last fall prompted a big selloff in stocks.

I have been saying this forever. I am NOT concerned about the treasurys because the government has this market by the balls still and the first congressman who says NATIONALIZATION, treasury yields will fall again.

What to look for tomorrow... isn't that what we are always wondering?

Well from my POV, I don't think we are done with the downward momentum. We have FOMC tomorrow & Wednesday which are always certain to add interesting aspects to the trading day.

Today was a GREAT trading day, it was easy to make some coin today, I hope all the other day-traders on the thread took advantage of today and banked a little roll.

right now it seems to me that 881 on the S&P ($SPX) is the downward target, once we hit thereabouts we may see a rebound to the 890 point. This is my personal "favorite" of the scenarios

There are 2 other possibilities, we drop some at open, to about 890 then see a rebound to the 908 resistance line, OR we go straight up to that 908 line at open, from which we fall back down.

While either of these are possible, and the overnight futures will pretty much tell which way is the most likely, the 1st scenario is my personal bet & I have my "bets" laid accordingly.

OF course, any "surprise" news can throw this all out (as has happened many times in the last few months).

BTW, the $SPX 880(ish) mark is a "lifetime" fibline from the 1932 low to 2007 high & therefor a "MUST HOLD" level for the Bulls. Break that and that 666 low won't hold!

Anyway, if you don't think EW is of any use in "predicting" the market movements, then ignore everything I've written here.

We will see what happens tomorrow though :-)

Disclaimer: Not trading advise, just putting my thoughts to paper per se.

reply to post by redhatty


So from what I understand... depending on how well the treasuries are selling this week, it will be either the markets go down so the treasuries rates go down... or the dollar goes down so the markets go up... IMO it would be wiser to collapse the stock market than collapse the dollar.

[edit on 22-6-2009 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


The EMA is projection of the stock market AFTER THE EFFECT. And seeing as, in your own words not paraphrasing someones blog, you have have never explained exactly the fascination with have Index's remain above EMA's? You have some people confused, or else writing you off simply because it's like listening to a scrambled radio station .. we get a few words here and there, but since its fractured and scrambled you cannot make sense. Your theory is always different and I doubt you have ever once explained it in any detail. Using your own words.

Why would you base the general movement of the economic Index's based on daily reports of the markets position above EMA's? Do EMA's not come after the fact that the market must be determined for the EMA, as an average, to be updated? I just don't see your logic, it sounds backwards to me. I could understand if you were predicting the moving average, but to try and predict the market based on the average? I understand using it as "resistance barrier" etc, but honestly if you don't even understand "why" the economic index's are moving the way they are, and you cannot clearly define what it is your talking about.. is it any wonder you seem to have bad friction with all those "doomsayers", as you so eloquently put?

Sorry if I'm being harsh, but quite frankly if you were advising me financially and you told me half the crap you post on here regarded EMA's and didn't have an ounce of information beyond that. And you knew little about the actual, or "Real Economy".... I would be running for the door. It's really not impressive, by any means. And I'd only bring this up if you where not so arrogantly trying to write everyone else off as "doomsayers"..

Originally posted by Vitchilo
reply to post by redhatty

 

So from what I understand... depending on how well the treasuries are selling this week, it will be either the markets go down so the treasuries rates go down... or the dollar goes down so the markets go up... IMO it would be wiser to collapse the stock market than collapse the dollar.

Well, FOMC meets next week and they plan monetary policy. Rumor is they want to tinker with the QE program.

We already see that QE is a failure. Since it began, the rate on the 10 year note has increased about 140 basis points from its lows.

They don't want interest rates to go to 8% but I think it is inevitable. The TNX was up over 5% just last week.

35 handles down on the SPX to get 15 bp improvement on the 10 yr is a hard trade off.

If Bernanke's plan is to get the TNX down to about 3% then we are looking at about 230 pt drop on the S&P. Will Ben make that sacrifice, probably, at least that is the way I am placing my "bets."

I mean how else can a "sane" person plan for the market futures when this week alone we have $165 billion in Treasuries for sale?

$31 billion in 3-month bills
$27 billion in 7-year notes
$40 billion in 2-year notes
$37 billion in 5-year notes
$30 billion in 6-month bills

Annualized this is $8.58 trillion dollars

The DX will maintain until we miss a debt payment, that's my guess at least. Yes it will fluctuate, but I don't have the stones for FOREX trading, so I am not going to put my neck out to say one way or the other. I do watch the FX movements and how they correlate to the S&P movements (and T's), but that is about it for me. I know my limits!

BTW, Hong Kong share prices ended the morning 3.16 percent lower on Tuesday, tracking falls on regional bourses and Wall Street.

reply to post by redhatty


So it's either two things... The debt interest higher and higher for a higher stock market, making US bankrupt on the long term.

Or bringing treasuries down by bringing the stock market down so people panic and go into treasuries... ruining small investors, pensions funds and some corporations...but saving the dollar...for how much longer?

IMO it will be option number 2, with them and their inside info... they'll make billions, just like Soros, ``i'm having a great crisis``...

Then when they've made billions on the downside, they'll withdraw their money and pull the plug on the US.

[edit on 23-6-2009 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Rockpuck


Go back about 10000 posts and I have VERY VERY VERY detailed explanation of what I am thinking and the theory behind it...

What does it all mean?

Well it doesnt mean a ceiling or floor or anything.. prices tend to move to an "equilibrium" level.. I'm not going to go into it anymore than that.. I just cant I would type 10 pages worth of information.. and my adhd would make it all "scrambled" as you say..

I think I have done a pretty good job over the past 3 months explaining as I go though.. you should just go back and reread all my posts

And if you haven't studied TA in full, I would expect you to think its stupid or worthless, or whatever you want to call it.. but if you go back through all the pages of posts.. I really haven;t been far off at any point, and it's not just bc I throw darts well buddy

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


No dude, lol

"waves" can be interpreted differently

PERCENTAGE moves under or over an EMA are VERY VERY VERY WELL DOCUMENTED, I have many books I can suggest if you like - that or the results of my automated trading program

- I keep getting harassed about this but if you have no idea then you should just study them extensively and refrain from criticism, Im not being mean.. but I cant seem to explain it to anyone that isn't in the know...frankly because I have been doing this for 10 years (with some fun in between ) and its like researching ancient egypt or something for an archeologist lets say?

reply to post by warrenb


There is money to be made everywhere -

Please go back and reread all my posts before I make you look foolish

reply to post by Vitchilo


You pretty much nailed it there

Apparently the "big wigs" are already "fleeing to safety" Link

Right now the T's are seen as the "safe" investment. How long that will remain, well that's the Trillions of dollars question, isn't it?

LOL Since world domination is not my game plan, I don't look so far ahead that I can't see myself in the picture

I just go day to day, while trying to see what will be happening in the near future.

I'll put it this way though, I have so many puts in place, that even with the few a cashed out today, I still have lots of money to make as long as we continue to drop (preferably hard - for my book only!) before December.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Hey.

Needed some time to think about what was happening. After you get burnt its usually good to put it away for a while. When something "technically" does not happen for me 2x in a row (open and close of Wed.) I'm clueless.

All I can say right now at this exact point, I think we could still see 8200 before 9000. I really, really think this.. IMO this is getting a little overextended.. but this may be my "emotion" getting into it - it seems like we have a "ceiling" right here to me.. like I said though.. its one of those "sit back and watch times" for a guy like me.. let the pro's sort this mess out

I wont be posting anymore opinions though.. I will be posting charts though of what I am looking at with a brief description. I would rather not get involved in anymore conversation.

As for at least backing up what I have been talking about for quite a while you can look here.. I have uploaded all my graphs (well.. at least here and sierracharts.com) and I have never "edited" them.. changed calls etc...

All my graphs uploaded so far on this site

I want everyone to know that contrary to one opinion, I never have/would/intended etc. to mislead anyone on this thread. Trust me, it's not or never has been my intention, and never will be. That is important to me to have out there.



As for what is on my mind...


On my mind June 6 2009

2nd Thing on my mind for June 6 2009

To the few that talk all the time privately, thats still totally cool... Im just done giving a public opinion.

Warren... please, take a look -

That was on June 6th

That is all I should have to say

EDIT: when i was referring to public opinions i was referring to intraday market moves as I was frequently making

[edit on 23-6-2009 by GreenBicMan]

From The Coming Depression:

Bob Chapman’s Int’l Forecaster newsletter revealed (5/20) this startling intelligence (from within US State Dept & embassies):

”Some US embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of US cash to purchase currencies from those govts, quietly. But not £’s. Inside the State Dept there is a sense of sadness & foreboding that ‘something’ is about to happen, unknown re a date—just that within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.”

Bob quotes another source that “Panasonic has told their people to be back in Japan by Sept 09.”

11 days (may) + 30 (june) + 31 (july) + 31 (august) (103 days) + 30 (september) + 31 (october) + 30 (november)

First date: September 17. (120 days) Minimum
Second date: October 17 (150 days)
Final date: November 16 (180 days) Maximum

So yeah... it goes with the GEAB predictions of september - october US defaut...

We'll see what happens...

Well the banks are falling flat again, (god figure), the housing is still a mess and not improving and the deficit is now calls to not even bother to balanced (because the numbers can not be counted anymore), on top of that some big wits are calling for the raising of the retirement age (the way its going we willl have to wait until 100 to retire)

My friends our nation is in the craper. Regardless what the cheerleaders tells you in Washington.

I'm not even going to try to guess at what will happened today...
Europe's up Asia is down here stock futures are edging higher early Tuesday ahead of the National Association of Realtors' report on May sales of existing homes. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters predict an increase of 2.8 percent, which would be a sign the troubled housing market is starting to mend. But if its not good news its anyone's guess as to where the market will end today...

I will however guess that home sales should be up, a little... people closing on homes they bought under the lower mortgage rates...but those rates are on the rise again and buyers well again dwindle pretty quickly

reply to post by DaddyBare


I wonder if as usual the numbers of housing "sales" are counting on the people that are refinancing their homes, this means that when you refinance you do a "closing" that is like "buying a home again you home" but for numbers and figures they are counting as sales, even if is you own home and the house is not changing hands.

Deceiving, but is not doubt that people has been "refinancing" due to lower mortgage rates.

Still they are counted as new "loan applications"

reply to post by marg6043


No this is only home sales not new mortgages there is a different report of that...but what they would include is how many of those will be from foreclosure auctions or out of the HUD dollar home program... see if a foreclosed home has been listed with HUD for more than six months states can buy those homes for $1 dollar. often they get used as public housing... with the growing homeless problem we've seen a lot of that lately... still it counts as a private sale and gets on the list...and that can skew the numbers quite a bit

[edit on 23-6-2009 by DaddyBare]