Are We In For a Greater Depression? 1929 vs 2008 DJIA

Here is an updated chart. I have added the S&P index in response to LowLevelMason. Please note that this is accurate through today and that the end points for the 2008 numbers in the graph represent today (Weds 10/15).



As you can see, the S&P is just as bad as the Dow.

Just so there's no confusion, there has been a 25.5% drop in the Dow from a mere month and a half (S&P is 28.9% down).

[edit on 15-10-2008 by kawz1]

reply to post by kawz1


Stirling work. I was going to request an updated graph in my post several hours ago, but got embroiled in the debate & forgot.

Informative, but sobering.

reply to post by pause4thought


I'll keep updating the chart in this thread as long as discussion continues within the thread (don't want to keep bumping an inactive thread).

And yes, very sobering indeed. The rebound felt early in the week and the drop off experienced today bares an uncanny resemblance to the up-and-down of 1929.

Obviously, there are many different factors that we are experiencing today, but the bottom line is that the economy appears to be circling the drain, at least in the short term.

Watch for unemployment to go up, crime to follow suit, and a whole bunch of legislation being shotgunned through Congress.

reply to post by pause4thought

Likewise in the realm of financial markets, insufficient, inept or ignored regulation plays into the hands of those who would systematically abuse the system no matter what the cost to others. And that, I believe, is what we have seen. (c.f. the previously quoted article).

What happens when it is those “who systematically abuse the system no matter what the cost to others” are the ones who are in charge of imposing the regulations?

I see and hear many asking for Government regulation but they have no idea what regulations they would like to see imposed. I hear the media blaming speculators and now we have individuals claiming that it is their belief that speculators need to be regulated. However even an elementary knowledge of the economic system would understand that this has nothing to do with the speculators.

I don't have a problem with regulations designed to protect the people. But these aren't the regulations that are being discussed. The regulations that are being discussed are those that ensure that the free market will only exist for the Government and the Corporation.

If individuals really are insistent on Government regulations they would be much better served in identifying what and how they want regulated. Not demanding regulation and accepting anything that falls under that term.


[edit on 15-10-2008 by harvib]

reply to post by stander

Twenty years ago, I developed an economic theory that explains Kondratiev waves are the result of scientific revolutions. This theory predicted:

1) Labor productivity growth spurt starting about the year 2000.
2) An economic boom in the US starting about 2000.
3) And an economic depressionary period in the US starting about 2010.

These predictions were very accurate. More info. on this theory and these ideas be found at www.sciencejunk.org See
cust38.metawerx.com.au...

reply to post by kawz1


I was wondering if you could update this chart to include the weeks that have passed. thanks so much!

Very nice graphs Thanks for putting the effort in explaining how you see our current situation. It is very sobering to see just how close we are to 1929. Keep up the good work!

Nah, we will be fine. Don't pay attention to facts and figures, charts and stuff.

Sure we have a few thousand new homeless living in tents but thats their fault for being unsavvy. They need to join the military get off thier butts and quit smoking those expensive cigarettes or quit buying those expensive foods....

Everyone just needs to go out and buy a new plasma or lcd tv, a new chair or some furniture, new car or truck, ( Ford or GM or Chrysler) take a vacation ...everything is fine.....its all in your head.

Haver a great American beer...This Buds on me!

No need to panic, the fundementals are strong.

Quit being unAmerican, get off your butt and get a job....yada yada............

The economy is resiliant.

The only thing to fear is yourself or something like that.

ignore Ron Paul. (sorry..this is the kind of crap i got when I called about a Mutual Fund i have)

[edit on 22-10-2008 by whiteraven]

It would be very interesting indeed to see this chart updated.

Unfortunately kawz1 has not been around for a few weeks. Is anyone else up to the task?

reply to post by pause4thought


There's a chart at UrbanSurvival.com - about half way down the page. If the page is updated before anyone gets to see it then all the previous reports are available from the links at the top of the page.

Sorry but I don't know how to post the chart here.

It's quite amusing to read back through the previous 2 pages of posts and see what everyone was saying in early October. I read a post on the 1st page about how the bank had taken away a $100,000 credit line from a healthy business with a great credit rating. Same here!

We've just secured a great contract to start in January but can we get credit to finance it? Nope! The reason we're given is just simply that none of the banks are lending to anyone, for anything, at the moment.

So the bank won't lend for us to get the job started, we won't earn any money and will be unable to pay our mortgage, bills, etc. Very helpful and just going to mean that the bank get one more worthless house to try and sell on. I'm not an accountant but that scenario just doesn't add up.

Our other option was to buy what we need upfront using our usual suppliers and paying on our usual 30 day accounts but none of our suppliers can offer any accounts anymore because they too have zero credit available from their banks.

Final option is the customer has to trust us and pay a very large upfront payment. We have to then pay a very large upfront payment to our suppliers and trust that they'll be able to supply us. If our suppliers can't get credit to buy what they need or their suppliers can't get credit to supply them, etc, etc. All comes down to trust and no-one knows which link in the chain is the weakest. Our customer is now thinking it over and who can blame them.

Seems more and more businesses are facing their lines of credit being frozen and it looks as though eventually everything will come to a grinding halt. What happens then? I suppose if no businesses can function then we'll be in very serious trouble.

If the banks can't sell on all those repossessed properties then at least we'll all be able to pick and choose where to become squatters. There's a very nice beach front development I've got my eye on (We're in southern Spain)

reply to post by Maya00a


Great find. Thanks!

Although not quite entirely up-to-date it certainly says a lot.

So the bank won't lend for us to get the job started, we won't earn any money and will be unable to pay our mortgage, bills, etc. Very helpful and just going to mean that the bank get one more worthless house to try and sell on. I'm not an accountant but that scenario just doesn't add up.

Our other option was to buy what we need upfront using our usual suppliers and paying on our usual 30 day accounts but none of our suppliers can offer any accounts anymore because they too have zero credit available from their banks.

That's pretty scary stuff. Very sorry to hear about your predicament.

No trust, no economic activity.

GM is truly nightmarish...

Originally posted by harvib

The question people should be asking is why is this cyclical decline being used to create fear and panic?

Naomi Cline's: "The Shock Doctrine, The Rise of Disaster Capitalism"

The main reasons all the MSM and Gov are saying that this will be nothing like the 1930's depression is because it wont. This because back then there werent nearly as many people and 90% of them had the ability to be self susatining.
Today less than 10% of the population is a ranching type operation and less than 2% of those are even self sustaining. They are right to say its nothing like the 1930's based on the census materials:we are in a world of trouble if things get even the tiniest bit worse.