Looks like were goign to have another BAD day today.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
Well long day, not as much movement as i was expecting. I saw more movement before the market opened. But it looks like its going to end on a low note.

If we close lower today that wont bode well for tomorrow. or the international markets going into this evening.

Right now the dow jsut dropped to -150 with 5 minutes left.

Looks like people are starting to get out before the close. which leads me to believe today was jsut based on the fed cuts alone. We chewed it up and spit it out.

You seem to know this stuff, how long does this go on? Is there any idea as to where the bottom is going to be?

Well it closed at -189 points.

With my very little financial market knowledge I would say that's not good . I bet they were counting on at least a green figure to prove that the rate cuts did indeed have a positive effect. But looks like they were hoping for too much.

The buyers/sellers must be very confused in this situation since all cards have been played an no big effect has been shown. The only best strategy left is start selling all their stocks and dig the grave . Then at the end you'll probably see it rise slightly due to bargain buyers which then finally will end with a big bang.

Dow closed at the 1998 level. There was no problem with the 1998 economy, was it? The market's steeper upward movement was caused by the economy hitching a ride on housing boom caused by the sub-prime lending "miracle." This condition no longer exists and so the market is adjusting to the realities. But the sudden declines from day to day is caused by the credit worries. You need to bring a bigger down payment these days to make a deal.

Mondays are the best market slides. Two days of inaction in times like these work wonders.

reply to post by stander


No nothing wrong with 1998 if only my dollar bought what it did 10 years ago.
That is a serious problem.

Originally posted by secretstash
OK, seriously, what happens if an entire nation just goes bankrupt? Do they just cease to exist? Does everyone just move somewhere else? Do they get bought out by another country like Britain and converted to whatever? What is the economic fallout of not having Iceland anymore? If foreign investment is heavy do they divy up the land and split it like Germany all those years ago? Talk about witnessing history!

[edit on 10/8/2008 by secretstash]

It means your money is worthless, your life savings is erased in a blink of an eye, and generations of wealth disappear.. it means that Government payrolls no longer exist, and millions become unemployed overnight, cascading into states and municipalities.. international trade comes to a halt, and political firestorms erupt across the country..

A country of this size .. if not contained in lightning speed, would fall into chaos, civil war, and most likely emerge as several different countries no longer bound by a Union ..

Ehh..

Essentially look at the USSR ... only we are more unified (for now) so I imagine our states would not break up (as fast)

reply to post by stander


1998? .. the DOW was around .. 7-8k

after 2000 it took as a while to get back up to 9k, which was considered a land mark due to 2001's 9/11 (2000 dot com burst and 9/11 are all included in the same recession)

Have a picture.




Very left hand side of the graph is 0ct 8th 1998

[edit on 10/8/2008 by Rockpuck]

Originally posted by Rockpuck
and generations of wealth disappear..

And this is why I believe so many Americans fear the collapse but at the same time are peculiarly excited by it.
The idea of that top 1% collapsing like the rest of us may just be worth it but in reality I think that top 1% would find some way to cushion that fall.
I am so ticked about these bonuses and golden whatevers these CEOs are getting that I almost want it all to fail so I can just stick my tongue out at them.
Childish? Yes but honest.

reply to post by dlongwell547


Well my guess is the DOW should be in the 8000's. It seems it has been driven up the last decade. But i think with stable growth it should only be valued around 7500 to 8000 which is where i think it very well bottom out at.

i think breaking the 9000 mark may be possible tomorrow. We may not close at below 9000 but i wouldn't say its far fetched to see it dip sometime in the day. it really all depends on what happens overnight.

We for sure would have hit 9000 today but the market was held up with all the fed interest rate cuts and the bail out in the UK. But like any fall, its not always a strait line. In stocks its always liek the sere gated edge of a knife. Sometimes to see whats going on yu have to pull back and look at it to see the momentum.

But then agan tomorrow we are finally allowed to SHORT sell. So we may see people flooding into the short holdings, which will possibly cause a huge sell off and the market would tank, then when the Short sellers start taking profits, we may see a huge rally. But it seems that is what the feds are hoping for as it would set a low, then we can proclaim it as..THE BOTTOM. It may increase investor confidence and then we can continue trading in a more normal fashion, until it decides to drop again. probably a week or so later.

so well see how it all play out.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by stander

 

1998? .. the DOW was around .. 7-8k

after 2000 it took as a while to get back up to 9k, which was considered a land mark due to 2001's 9/11 (2000 dot com burst and 9/11 are all included in the same recession)

Have a picture.




Very left hand side of the graph is 0ct 8th 1998

[edit on 10/8/2008 by Rockpuck]

It doesn't really matter too much if the today's DJ close 9258 was the average of 1999 and not 1998. But for the sake of the argument, let's replace your chart with no dates available with a zoom in:



You claim that in 1998 the Dow was "around 7 - 8k" is apparently wrong, as you can see. The vast majority of the bell values are above 8k.

The top red line are the peaks of 1998 -- around today's close. That's why I made the comparison with 1998, even though as an average, 9250 points applies to the second half of 1998 and the first half of 1999.

My point was that the stock market needs to adjust to the sub-prime heydays being gone and it will without causing WWIII. The economy knows how it feels like around DJ = 7000, so it can do it again --no harm done.

Im siding with rock punk on this one

What you really need to look at..


Google

DOW Adjusted for inflation


It shows the Dow with respect to the inflation curve. Otherwise the DOW just look like its going strait up. but with inflation adjusted it looks a lot more relevant to the actual growth of the market.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
Im siding with rock punk on this one

What you really need to look at..


Google

DOW Adjusted for inflation


It shows the Dow with respect to the inflation curve. Otherwise the DOW just look like its going strait up. but with inflation adjusted it looks a lot more relevant to the actual growth of the market.

Are you siding with Rockpuck, because he presented a chart showing DJ adjusted for inflation? If so, then look again. In adjusted DJ, numbers usually don't show values around 12000.

Here is one of those adjusted charts. You can look at it without downloading anything.
www.dogsofthedow.com...

Doesn't make much difference. does it? The ups and downs just occur some 9000 points bellow the nominal (blue) values.

this is all to make us as vulnerable as possible.

hard to believe that the whoooole world is going through pretty much the same thing... (lol minus the middle east of course)

i am really becoming increasingly suspicious..
and mildly paranoid.

No his chart isn't adjusted. Its hard to find a good chart that isn't skewed.

The overall ups and downs are magnified by inflation on the regualr charts. Dow Adjusted for inflation.

Ths shows the highs and lows of the marked, not very current but you can kinda fll in the #s at the end yourself. But it puts the ups and downs of the market where you can compare them equivalently.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
No his chart isn't adjusted. Its hard to find a good chart that isn't skewed.

The overall ups and downs are magnified by inflation on the regualr charts. Dow Adjusted for inflation.

Ths shows the highs and lows of the marked, not very current but you can kinda fll in the #s at the end yourself. But it puts the ups and downs of the market where you can compare them equivalently.

In the long range when comparisons are made, the inflation is a factor. But this parameter has been adjusted back in 1980s and you may not get overly reliable figures. That's why DJ is recorded in its nominal form. It's up to you to find the inflation rate that you think is the most representative and do the adjustment by yourself.

For a comparison, you can use this calculator tied to CPI:
www.westegg.com...

But remember that the Dow Jones index doesn't represent money per se. You can't enter 9000 points from 1998 and adjust them for inflation. Actually you can for a very rough comparison, but you need to assume lots of things.

This gives you the idea how to make a more representative chart:
economics.about.com...

reply to post by stander


Don't really get what your .. pointing at?

...listen carefully .. ok?




Looking at the ENTIRE CHART ..

Why would say "OMG the DJIA is at 1998 levels?!!!"

...When 1998 was the peak year, where it went (first 9 months.. hovering in the 7900-8900 range ... to begining it's final push to it's record points..

When in 2002-03-04 the markets where much lower then 1998 levels?

When you relate the DOW to the past you always say "lowest point since.. yada yada yada.. " .. In this case, sometime in 2003..

THough, the other poster was right about everything except my screen name, the DOW adjusted for inflation, which is the biggest reason the stocks shot so high, is much less.. dramatic.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Forget it.. stupid chart didn't work anyways.

Hong kong doing better, it started at -1000.
Everyone else can grab an egg role suck it.

money.cnn.com...

I can only imagine what life would be like if the US market completely crashes and we go into a major depression, but if the whole global market crashes, Thats a scarey scenerio...I'm getting real nervous

Happy anniversary, Mr. Dow....



What an awful lot to happen in the space of one year.

yeah Asia is looking good to start the day but i think its just taking some gains after it plummeted yesterday. the markets after the asian markets didnt do nearly as bad as the asian markets. But then again, ASIAN markets were down about 8% yesterday and we opened the US markets and were up in a matter of minutes.

But it is good news to see the Asian markets doing well. But i think they may sell off a bit before they near the end of the day. alot like what happened in the US today.

I think right now more investors are more worried about whats going on in Europe than anywhere else for the time being.