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Back in 1998, for example, Hansen was arguing that the human impact on climate was unquestionable, even as other leading climate scientists continued to question it. He was subsequently proved right, not only about the human influence but about the approximate pace of future temperature rise. But just as in 1998, the underlying motivation for his claims, if not all of his conclusions, is shared pretty much universally.
The basic proposition behind the science of climate change is so firmly rooted in the laws of physics that no reasonable person can dispute it. All other things being equal, adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere—by, for example, burning millions of tons of oil, coal and natural gas—will make it warm up. That, as the Nobel Prize–winning chemist Svante Arrhenius first explained in 1896, is because CO2 is relatively transparent to visible light from the sun, which heats the planet during the day. But it is relatively opaque to infrared, which the earth tries to reradiate back into space at night. If the planet were a featureless, monochromatic billiard ball without mountains, oceans, vegetation and polar ice caps, a steadily rising concentration of CO2 would mean a steadily warming earth.
The most recent major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 projects a temperature rise of three degrees Celsius, plus or minus 1.5 degrees—enough to trigger serious impacts on human life from rising sea level, widespread drought, changes in weather patterns, and the like.
But according to Hansen and his nine co-authors, who have submitted their paper to Open Atmospheric Science Journal, the correct figure is closer to six degrees C. “That’s the equilibrium level,” he says. “We won’t get there for a while. But that’s where we’re aiming.” And although the full impact of this temperature increase will not be felt until the end of this century or even later, Hansen says, the point at which major climate disruption is inevitable is already upon us. “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted,” the paper states, “CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm [parts per million] to at most 350 ppm.” The situation, he says, “is much more sensitive than we had implicitly been assuming.”
Originally posted by djcloudy
My question is, even if we halted all CO2 producing factors by humans completely today, would we be avoiding a climate crisis? Or are other factors such as the Sun making this an eventuality irregardless of our activities.
Originally posted by Dermo
even that Earth's average temperature is falling are also compelling.
Originally posted by peacejet
The earths average temperature is increasing and a three degree change is expected
Originally posted by Dermo
BUT believing everything you read from scientists is like believing adverts on tv. All scientists are on a payrole. The answer depends on the payrole.
Originally posted by peacejet
Originally posted by Dermo
BUT believing everything you read from scientists is like believing adverts on tv. All scientists are on a payrole. The answer depends on the payrole.
And also the scientists who produced the findings, you are saying are also on a payrole, what if this contrary findings were done on purpose, to hide the evidence of global warming.