Major Bolide Forecast Tonight; No Damage Expected

Originally posted by 4thefight
Wow Cool pictures. Not what I was expecting though... I thought it would look more like a shooting star.

That's because it's nothing to do with the object we are talking about in this thread.

It does however somewhat resemble the "smoke-trails" sometimes left by large meteors. See some examples from a real bolide here: aquarid.physics.uwo.ca...

So wasn't this supposed to hit like 20 minutes ago? Guess nothing happened. Not like a really was expecting it to. Anyone with a base in astronomy can easily find its speed and mass. So the prediction of damage, location, and time it almost 100% certain. its nto like predicting the weather. But it was timed for 10:46 Eastern Daylight time? right? 11:46 Central? Hmm. i wonder if it made a odd anomaly in the sky...like made the night look like day. or looked like another star. You know something from revelations. i mean with as much hype about this day. Who knows.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
So wasn't this supposed to hit like 20 minutes ago?

Looks like it did.

From spaceweather.com...

The following potentially confirming report comes from Jacob Kuiper, General Aviation meteorologist at the National Weather Service in the Netherlands: "Half an hour before the predicted impact-time of asteroid 2008 TC3, I informed an official of Air-France-KLM at Amsterdam airport about the possibility that crews of their airliners in the vicinity of the predicted impact would have a chance to see a fireball. And it was a success! I have received confirmation that a KLM airliner, roughly 750 nautical miles southwest of the predicted atmospheric impact position, has observed a short flash just before the expected impact time 0246 UTC. Because of the distance it was not a very large phenomenon, but still a confirmation that some bright meteor has been seen in the predicted direction.

I just got online this morning (7:30 am Eastern Standard) and have not seen any news related to this. Since we are all not dead I assume it was not a catastrophically horrible impact. But do we have any news outlet confirmation of size or impact site? I am having to luck.
It's good to not be dead though!
Obs out

Originally posted by observer
I just got online this morning (7:30 am Eastern Standard) and have not seen any news related to this.

the only blurb i've heard at 7:30an ET, is that a small space rock is supposed to hit in Africa somethime today (tuesday Oct 7th)
now did i hear the date wrong or what?

I was hoping for some pics or video of this thing, should have looked pretty wicked. Anyone find any posted yet?

So did anything happen? I didn't hear anything about it....

Well here is one that happened last night in Australia, astronomers says its size could of ranged from a beer can to the size of half a car, not very specific then lol.

www.liveleak.com...

This gives us some idea of what to expect i guess.

Reminds me of that film "Impact" where the smaller ones hit first followed by the big one



[edit on 7-10-2008 by Denied]

Just one question, I don't know if anyone has asked here as I can't be bothered to go through every post to check, but just how big is this asteroid? is it just a small insignificant blip that they detected that may or may not enter our atmosphere or is it a huge impending disaster set to take place?

SORRY, I'm new to ATS

Originally posted by Denied
Well here is one that happened last night in Australia, astronomers says its size could of ranged from a beer can to the size of half a car, not very specific then lol.

www.liveleak.com...

Actually that is footage from December 2005: link

They're not *that* frequent!

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


Thank you, thought it was more recent.

But as a reference, i think the video i posted, was small in comparison to how big the one over sudan was, as that was 3-meters wide.

reply to post by Majorion


The estimate was 2m, but they measure that by how bright the object appears to be - the only trouble with this is, if you don't know what type of material the object is made from, since different materials reflect different amounts of light, the measurement could be off by a fair margin.

reply to post by Denied


You're welcome Denied.

I'm not so sure there was all that much difference in size between these two events. The best way to compare the two would be using US DOD satellite detection data, but the DOD are ever more reluctant to release such data to the public it seems these days - they used to for almost all big bolide events, but I've only seen data for one event in the last 3-4 years (if not more) released to the public, and there have been at least ~6 major events in that time. I suspect we may see some released for this event though! Unfortunately AFAIK none was released for the Australian bolide, but I'd have to check that to be sure.

In the absence of DOD data, the next best way is to compare reports of how bright the fireballs were. The Australian fireball was quite bright - perhaps a magnitude or two brighter than the full moon I think (I'd have to do a little digging to be sure). There was a report from an astronomer who saw this morning's event from India, and said it was about the brightness of a full moon...

Edit to add:
So yes, that clip could be a pretty good apporximation of what it looked like. As more reports trickle in we should get a better idea.

PS. Here's another bit of classic meteor footage I spotted over at live leak: www.liveleak.com...

That event was quite a big one too, but not quite as big as the events we have been discussing here. Still a great video though.


[edit on 7-10-2008 by C.H.U.D.]

I never knew that meteors are named and their trajectory data can be decoded as a memo from some ET intelligence.

Meteor says investments backed by solvent Lehman companies are 'probably fully recoverable'

Hannah Stodell - 06-Oct-2008

Meteor Asset Management has written to advisers and clients telling them that direct investments backed by solvent Lehman subsidiaries or with third parties are “probably fully recoverable.”

Asset Management? Why not Shiny Invader, Sky Bright Pretty, or some other name more like it? Who does name these things?

Originally posted by stander
I never knew that meteors are named

I suspect you meant to say "that meteoroids are named"

Meteoroid = small rock in space
Meteor = the light show we see when a meteoroid buns up
Meteorite = any rock from space that reaches the ground

If you mean objects like Apophis, then, as far as I know there are no others that have been given non-numerical names. Only objects which were once thought to have a reasonable certainty of hitting us may have been named as far as I know.

On the other hand, big fireball/meteorite dropping events that are witnessed are almost always named after the the location where the event took place eg. Tagish Lake, Peeskill, Jackson Lakes, etc...



[edit on 7-10-2008 by C.H.U.D.]

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


After re-reviewing the Australian 2005 fireball footage again...

those flare-ups are pretty bright! I'd forgotten just how much so. It looks to me like it could easily have made -20 mag, if not more.

That's significantly brighter than the reports we have so far of this morning's event, which seems to be around -12 mag (brightness of full moon).

Anyone want to do the maths? Each step in magnitude is 2.5 times brighter than the last.

I think it's safe to say that the 2005 event was at least one order of magnitude bigger (and brighter) than this morning's event, but it's hard to have a good comparison if the compositions were very different. Hopefully there will be some detailed reports, if not actual footage that will give us some more clues as to the composition! Perhaps even recovered fragments if we are lucky, although I have a sneaky suspicion that anything surviving may have ended up in the sea this time.

Thank goodness it was nothing. But some day, without a doubt we could get smacked. Here is what I got after searching my network of fellow sky watchers.

For Facebook people: A photo from Mahmoud Aboutabl in Egypt.

4 Facebook Photoes

Then some other links.

Here's a video of the optical tracking in space.

VIDEO

Here's a report:

The following potentially confirming report comes from Jacob Kuiper, General Aviation meteorologist at the National Weather Service in the Netherlands: "Half an hour before the predicted impact of asteroid 2008 TC3, I informed an official of Air-France-KLM at Amsterdam airport about the possibility that crews of their airliners in the vicinity of impact would have a chance to see a fireball. And it was a success! I have received confirmation that a KLM airliner, roughly 750 nautical miles southwest of the predicted atmospheric impact position, has observed a short flash just before the expected impact time 0246 UTC. Because of the distance it was not a very large phenomenon, but still a confirmation that some bright meteor has been seen in the predicted direction. Projected on an infrared satellite-image of Meteosat-7 of 0300 UTC, I have indicated the position of the plane (+) and the predicted impact area in Sudan (0)."

And:

MOSCOW, October 7 (RIA Novosti) - NASA said Tuesday that its scientists had calculated a meteorite's trajectory and tracked its entry into Earth's atmosphere for the first time in the history of space exploration. The 2-meter meteorite entered the atmosphere over Sudan at about 02:46 GMT Tuesday and broke into fiery fragments seconds later. "We estimate objects this size enter Earth's atmosphere once every few months," said Don Yeomans of the Near-Earth Object Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "The unique aspect of this event is that it is the first time we have observed an impacting object during its final approach." The small meteorite, designated 2008 TC3, was first spotted by the Mount Lemon telescope of the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey early Monday. Its trajectory calculations were made under the Near Earth Object Observation Program, which plots the orbits of space objects to determine if they could be hazardous to the Earth.

No accounts of sonic boom or flashes, but then most don't report such. Especially in the middel of the Sudan. Maybe later though. My network is watching for anything.

It looks like it was a rocky asteroid, junk essentially and leftovers from the formation solar system or similar. If it was solid Nickle Iron or otherwise dense material, it might have made a better show (ie. 1 Kiloton blast) as all the material expressed it's energy all at once. But the Sudan is sparsely populated and not many with telescopes or internet and phones to report with for that matter.

This happens many times a year. SAC (Strategic Air Command) and other defense systems see this kind of event all the time. They need to distinguish between asteroids and nuclear bursts or a breach of secure air space. Many times in the last few decades we have been on alert for meteors hitting over land and sea being mistaken for a nuclear event. Some of the asteroids make it to the ground. You have seen those going through rofs, cars and making dents in the ground in the news likely.

So far we've been very lucky. That will someday change. Not soon I hope.

So what is all the stuff coming through psychics dreams??

In particle physics they've shown you can know a particles direction, but not it's speed or vice-versa. Heisenberg Uncertainty Principal is likely in action here.

Maybe the prediction of the UFO on the 14th is only right for the date, and the other psychics visions for a nuclear exchange this morning where an asteroid for the 14th. Or, whatever. You cannot know the future, just the "potentials".

So a friend sent this:

Richard Boylan Warns of Nov. 15 Asteroid Strike 07-Aug-2008 Dr. Richard Boylan has produced a report saying that a large asteroid will hit the North Atlantic between 2:30 and 3:00 PM on November 15. As is our custom, we are recording this prediction, and, assuming we are still here on November 16, will report on the outcome. As 2012 nears, we can expect more of these apocalyptic predictions. Dr. Boylan has stated in his report, "There is an asteroid headed on a collision course with earth. It is 8/10th of a mile long and 6/10th of a mile wide. On its current course, it is due to impact in the North Atlantic this year at about 2:30-- 3:00 PM EDT on November 15, 2008." He cites as his source the remote viewing results of a Native American friend, based on information from "the Zeta and other Star Visitors." It has long been our practice to document such predictions and report on their accuracy after the date of the prediction has passed. Also, Whitley is talking about the upsurge of warnings:
Unknown Country

It may be that this upsurge of warnings is precognition of the novelty spike in the Time Wave Zero calculation. Who knows what will go on?

Then there is the Web Bot EGG and other predictive techniques.

It seems the best we have to put a pinhole in a question is a shotgun.


ZG

Originally posted by C.H.U.D.

Originally posted by stander
I never knew that meteors are named

I suspect you meant to say "that meteoroids are named"

Meteoroid = small rock in space
Meteor = the light show we see when a meteoroid buns up
Meteorite = any rock from space that reaches the ground

You suspected wrong. How the hell can anyone name meteoroids without knowing what kind of light show the thing is up to. That's what probably happened with that wannabe big-news-for-October-7 space pebble. Some wise ass named a meteoroid without waiting for the meteor fireworks. Hence "Asset Management" -- or Ass-ET whatever.

Only objects which were once thought to have a reasonable certainty of hitting us may have been named as far as I know.

On the other hand, big fireball/meteorite dropping events that are witnessed are almost always named after the the location where the event took place eg. Tagish Lake, Peeskill, Jackson Lakes, etc...

...or Jackson Hole or Woods Hole to reflect upon the landing effect of a meteorwrong -- I mean meteorite.


[edit on 10/7/2008 by stander]

We're all here, no zombies in the street, no tanks either... oh well.

Originally posted by Office 4256
We're all here, no zombies in the street, no tanks either... oh well.

Meteoroid Cold Sweat. Today, we came dangerously close to be re-classified as Homo dinosauriens by the folks who would have found our remains some sixty-five million years from now.