What will happen in Canada?

Not sure if there is another thread with this angle.

What is Canada's role in this Global Meltdown? I would love to hear from Canadians and others regarding our economy and if we should be preparing to the extent that our neighbours are? We keep hearing from our politicians that our economy has safeguards and is different, but in the end is that true? Weren't the Americans told not to worry as well?

reply to post by Game_Over



I can see Harper, Dion and Layton running in circles while Ottawa burns down around them. I don't see our financial system as being strong enough to buffer us from the insanity stateside, I do see our position as giving us maybe a day or so of lead time over events to the south though. The only problem is that things may happen so fast that our institutions lock down as soon as TSHTF in the States. I would be prepared to Bug as soon as TSHTF in the US because we will be right behind.

I am worried. The American economy directly effects us up in Canada. with the threat of a hurricane in Texas last month our gas jumped 11 cents in one day. When they realized that the oil refineries weren't damaged then our gas prices lowered 2 days later. Is that not jumping the gun a bit???

From what i can gather on this side of the water, Canada's economy and infrastructure is a lot more robust in terms of sustainability than the US. Large land area and small population means large natural resource deposits. This will keep investor interest high, therefore more money in the system and a ticking economy.

The main problem you might have is if banks start collapsing because of the fallout from the US banks. But with the Canadian population being so small in comparison the the GDP, your government should have no problem in completely insuring deposits and bailing out problem banks...

Unless of course, all of them collapse.. then you might be in a spot of bother.

Being the northern neighbours of the US and close economic partners I am also worried. It seems any trouble in the US is trouble for us in Canada. I have not heard any news of economic problems as of yet. In the end we may have to buddy up with China or other emerging economic powers and cut, or lessen our ties to the sinking US. I have little knowledge about any economic fallbacks, or plans to regulate an economic meltdown. I think if anyone is going to feel the pinch it will be those living in areas like Southern Ontario.

That gas price deal going up because of the hurricane is just an excuse to raise the price.

If people begin to accept that BS, then expect the price to go up every time the wind blows or snow falls or thunder roars and the rain pours.

They will use anything for an excuse to raise the price. And they will continue to do so as long as people believe it is the reason why.

Because of world economics, and the influence of the American dollar from the beginings of the worldwide economic wheel, other nations will feel the effects of any downturn in the American economic system.

Its just a fact. Hopefully it will not effect others too much because others do not deserve the efffects of idiotic decisions made by the US leadership.

Cheers!!!!

[edit on 2-10-2008 by RFBurns]

Because of world economics, and the influence of the American dollar from the beginings of the worldwide economic wheel, other nations will feel the effects of any downturn in the American economic system.

Thats true, but it can be both bad and good. A drop in the US dollar means it can harder for US corporations to survive here in the Eurozone but also means a rise in demand for US goods and services which are cheaper because of the weak dollar. And visa versa if the roles were reversed.
(I have personally been buying a lot of things from the US over the last year because they are now close to half the price i can get them in the EU)

I know it doesn't fully even out, but it can help quite a lot.

I really hate to say it because i hate globalization, but from a business and economic perspective, it would have been a good idea for the US to make closer economic ties to the EU (ie. a relaxed market) before this happened.

But then.. hindsight is a great thing.

Thanks for the great replies. With the meltdown going global it is difficult to find info on what could happen in this country. Of course much of our media is from the U.S. and therefore it is told from their perspective, so I will have to make sure to include solid info from a Canadian angle.

Does anyone know of a website like Infowars that tackles issues happening in Canada?

Reading the responses here have made me feel that perhaps I am getting a little ahead of myself.

However, I can not get the idea that the controlled demolition of the U.S. financial markets is going to also include Canada in order to push through the NAU.

unrational fears? Or reading the writing on the walls?

reply to post by Game_Over


Canada's growth is much more stable than that of America. Some of the reasons that the United States is in such a pickle is put simply, people were taking out loans they couldn't afford to pay back in the states, so now there is a massive credit crunch, and people can't afford to do purchase much, and it just gets worse. At least that's what I think. I do believe there are laws in Canada's financial institutions that prevent banks from lending out such large amounts of money knowing that the people can't pay it back, just so they can get interest from the borrower for the rest of their life.

Like it was said above me, Canada's economy is much more diversified. Don't expect to see growth like we did last year and this year, but we're getting stronger. Manufacturing jobs will get hit the hardest, but the grain industry is exploding. Provinces like Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are going to get really strong, and Ontario and Quebec might get hit the hardest due to their dependence on their manufacturing industry. In the end, I think Canada has a good chance of survival, as long as we loosen our dependence on the states and increase trade with other major global players. I don't think we have much to worry about other than a large influx of American immigrants flooding up here. We need military at the boarder.

[edit on 123131p://555 by For(Home)Country]

reply to post by For(Home)Country



Good analysis, I think there is a lot more problems in the US economy than you outlined but I agree with your take on what's coming for Canada.

reply to post by Game_Over


I started a thread on this a few weeks ago but didn't get too many replies.
Canada's fate in the event of a US economic collapse

From what I can tell it's pretty simple really.

The Cdn economy has a much sturdier foundation than that of the US. There wasn't as much of the crazy mortgage lending as there was in the US and it only lasted a few years before the government shut it down. Banks are still issuing credit on a normal basis and aren't cutting people's credit limits because they lack liquidity.

Either way things go, it's good for the Cdn economy. If the USD falls against other currencies, the Loonie gains which means more buying power for Cdns. If the USD rises against other currencies, it means more selling power for Cdns which means stronger manufacturing and commodities jobs.

Basically, I tentatively think we're going to be ok.

It's a mistake to assume that we here in Canada are unaffected by the meltdown in the States.

A very good portion of our economy is based on our exports. Wheat, potash, wood, metals, etc.. A very good portion which gets sold South of the border.

If the global economy tanks, there is no selling stuff abroad. And you will see small towns with resource jobs become ghost towns.

These people will come to the cities hoping for jobs, of which there will none.

Canada relies on the shipping industry to move goods into the country. Ships are expensive. Trucks are expensive. If it's too expensive for drivers to drive, then nothing is coming into the country. No food. Except for that grain that's sitting in the prairies.. but if everyone is coming to the cities, then no one is growing the food. And we can't live on wheat forever.

One of the other problems we may face is if people south of our border see us doing well, guess where they're coming. We have barely enough food to feed ourselves, how could we contend with several hundred thousand+ people arriving on our doorstep practically overnight? Which is what would happen for certain if we join the NAU..

It may take a little longer but if the US and world have a sustained meltdown. We're going down too.

IMO it is a major mistake to think of this as a US problem. It is now a global problem as the entire world's financial systems have become incredibly intertwined particularly since the collapse of the iron curtain. Iceland collapsed today as did Russia this week, bank runs in China, etc. etc.

We are indeed *beginning* to experience the new uncharted waters of the debt unwinding, with the emphasis on "begin". As Buffet said only a short few days ago, this is another US Pearl Harbor. Namely, Pearl Harbor was the beginning of WW2.

--

So on to the original poster's question about what will happen in Canada.

I guess the best lesson I learned was when I started with Merrill in '83 and their Chief Market analyst Bob Farrell (sp?) would always come out with a comment when a cycle went to an extreme he would continuously say:

"Once again, ladies and gentlemen, the pundits are telling us why we are different this time. I, however, am here to tell you - it's no different this time."

What this means is MY OPINION suggests Canada is about to get - and in some areas is already experiencing - the same SH* kicking the rest of the world is currently *beginning* to experience. Namely, we are not immune.
And we should be prepared for the worst, even though we are techincally in better shape in SOME areas. CERTAINLY not in many - but our banks are.

So what should we as Canadians do? Pure and simple - get rid of any debt you have as soon as you can, because as I learned from my grandfather, the resale vale of hard assets (real estate, cars, whatever) goes up and down over the years, but the only thing that will always stay constant is YOUR PERSONAL DEBT.

Get rid of it as fast as possible.

JK's 2 bits.



[edit on 5-10-2008 by leo123]

[edit on 5-10-2008 by leo123]

I always wonder about this getting out of debt business.

I have debt, but it isn't secured by anything. Purely credit card debt. I do not identify myself with this debt so I actually feel safer knowing that if the bottom falls out, they can't take anything away from me as I have no liens against my assets. I have no mortgage and no car payments.

And by the time it comes that I can't pay my debts, well, I won't have an income either.. and I'll probably have left town too..

And if the times do get better in the future, well, I can always start paying them off again if necessary.

I realize that most of our imports go to the US but when the US dollar collapses it doesn't mean that our resources won't be in demand it just means that the demand will come from elsewhere, other currencies will rise against the US dollar even though they will all be dropping against real assets. The US will be priced out of the market for imports. I'm not saying that Canada won't feel the effects but as long as we divert our exports to emerging markets it should be fine. The thing I worry about is all the managed trade requirements of NAFTA and SPP gettiing in the way.

Originally posted by juniperberry
I always wonder about this getting out of debt business.

I have debt, but it isn't secured by anything. Purely credit card debt. I do not identify myself with this debt so I actually feel safer knowing that if the bottom falls out, they can't take anything away from me as I have no liens against my assets.

I frankly find that comment shocking.

Do you not realize you are actually ripping off ordinary citizens who own this debt of yours if you don't repay it and default?

This is not a faceless obligation, gal, own up to your responsibilities to others and pay off your debt.

If you think I am exaggerating here by saying you could literally be ripping of some 90 year old Granny shareholder who relies on her dividend cheque from that bank - you would be wrong.

WAKEUP time gal.

Take responsibilities for your own actions - pay off the money you have borrowed. There is a *LIVE* face you have borrowed it from.

JK

[edit on 5-10-2008 by leo123]

[edit on 5-10-2008 by leo123]

Originally posted by leo123

Originally posted by juniperberry
I always wonder about this getting out of debt business.

I have debt, but it isn't secured by anything. Purely credit card debt. I do not identify myself with this debt so I actually feel safer knowing that if the bottom falls out, they can't take anything away from me as I have no liens against my assets.

I frankly find that comment shocking.

Do you not realize you are actually ripping off ordinary citizens who own this debt of your if you don't repay it and default?

This is not a faceless obligation, gal, own up to your responsibilities to others and pay off your debt.

If you think I am exaggerating her by saying you could literally be ripping of some Granny shareholder who relies on her dividend cheque from that bank - you would be wrong.

WAKEUP time gal.

JK

[edit on 5-10-2008 by leo123]

I know. I AM paying my debt. I was only saying that the only reason I would not be paying debt was if there were NO jobs, and if I didn't have one. The debt would STILL be there at the end of it.. But they can't force me to give what I don't have.

Originally posted by juniperberry
I know. I AM paying my debt. I was only saying that the only reason I would not be paying debt was if there were NO jobs, and if I didn't have one. The debt would STILL be there at the end of it.. But they can't force me to give what I don't have.

J:

I still don't think you get it. If you can't afford the debt to begin with, don't borrow the money in the first place woman!

I could give a rats A** if you have no job, you borrowed the money now pay it off.

Some granny will get *SCREWED* by you if you don't.

Is this registering at all. Hello?

The debt you have taken on via you credit cards is not *FACELESS* if you default and don't pay it. YOU are screwing somebody if you don't.

Get your ass in gear.

JK

Originally posted by juniperberry
It's a mistake to assume that we here in Canada are unaffected by the meltdown in the States.

No one is foolish enough to think that we will be unaffected, but it's not out of line to think that we won't be up the river in the same fashion as Americans.

A very good portion of our economy is based on our exports. Wheat, potash, wood, metals, etc.. A very good portion which gets sold South of the border.

If the global economy tanks, there is no selling stuff abroad. And you will see small towns with resource jobs become ghost towns.

You're kidding, right? Do you really think no one else wants to buy these resources? China is constantly trying to broker deals with Canada for oil among other things, the majority of which Canada graciously sells to the US. If he US falls out of line because it can't afford to buy there will be plenty of others to take its place.

Not to mention that Canada is forging an economic union with the EU as we speak that can replace its current one with the US with a larger, richer marketplace.

If it's too expensive for drivers to drive, then nothing is coming into the country.

Again, you're misinformed. Rail transport is the way of the future and started to take the place of truck traffic in Canada years ago. The US is a little slow on the uptake in this respect, but it's finally catching on as well. If it doesn't have to be there immediately, it is and will be arriving by train. The only truck it will be on is the dray from the train yard to the warehouse, and in most cases the warehouse is right in the train yard.

No food.

If food can sit in a refer container on a truck it can do it on a train as well. We're not going to run out of food just because it doesn't grow outside year round here.

but if everyone is coming to the cities, then no one is growing the food. And we can't live on wheat forever.

If there are absolutely zero jobs in the cities, why wouldn't people move to the country where property is a fraction of the cost, and they can grow their own food?

We have barely enough food to feed ourselves, how could we contend with several hundred thousand+ people arriving on our doorstep practically overnight?

How do you figure? Canada EXPORTS food to the US. Not just wheat, but produce, and it would be exporting beef as well if there weren't a ban on it. And not just in summer, but all year. Those tomatoes you eat in December probably came from a greenhouse in Hamilton, ON. It's as simple as keeping the food for ourselves if TSHTF. Even Ireland produced enough food to feed everyone during the famine;it was just being exported to England.

If Americans start streaming over the border the government can always create jobs depression style by hiring people to physically guard every inch of it. But I don't think that's going to happen. Sadly (for them), I think that Americans won't realize they should have left until it's too late and they can't afford the gas to drive to Canada.

No matter how much some of you want it, the world isn't ending. Canada will still be here and so will the US, even if we can't afford to buy plasma tvs for a few years.

Originally posted by juniperberry
It's a mistake to assume that we here in Canada are unaffected by the meltdown in the States.

No one is foolish enough to think that we will be unaffected, but it's not out of line to think that we won't be up the river in the same fashion as Americans.

J:

A couple of points if I may.

Don't cherry pick your quotes and if you do, fully attribute them to the original poster.

Thanks in advance.

===

With regards to your above quote, J:

"No one is foolish enough to think that we will be unaffected, but it's not out of line to think that we won't be up the river in the same fashion as Americans"

It is my opinion at this point not to rule out anything.

For example, my home here in modest Victoria has increased 150% in the last 5 years - so do the math.

The last time I saw this was during the 1976 ro 1982 era in Edmonton and Calgary.

JK's 2 bits.