Reinhardt Thread - "Suggestions and Predictions"

Originally posted by justyc

Originally posted by Maya00a
Pretending to fail again? You know what really worries me is that I'm not sure which scenario I prefer - either that we're being manipulated and someone actually has a grip on the situation or that there's no manipulation and everyone in charge is actually clueless as to what to do to fix this mess.

well, you know which you believe to be the case don't you?

they created the problem (& the major one about to come), everyone will have their reaction...

then wait till you see their 'solution'

If everyone gets panicked enough then people will beg them for the 'solution' and that frightens me the most.

Originally posted by justyc
they created the problem (& the major one about to come), everyone will have their reaction...

What is the Major Problem about to come?

Also what is Reinhartd opinion on Webbot?

I don't follow this thread i useally just pop in and out.

[edit on 9-12-2008 by TSOM87]

[edit on 9-12-2008 by TSOM87]

Originally posted by TSOM87
What is the Major Problem about to come?

Also what is Reinhartd opinion on Webbot?

most likely scenario - total financial collapse next year on a scale never before seen.

i don't know - you would have to ask him that.

New David Lightman vid =


The Pirates are Wired

Seems r was right on the money with this Bernie Madoff character:

Now I have to research this Bernard Madoff character As news leaks on what institutions were exposed.. it could turn into a kind of financial Chinese water torture

Link

W all St. veteran arrested over alleged $50billion fraud

From Florida golf clubs through Long Island's playground of the rich and famous, all the way to the City of London's boardrooms, investors large and small are reaching to check their wallets, scared they may have become victims of Wall Street's biggest fraud. Many wealthy clients face financial ruin following the arrest of 70-year-old Bernard Madoff, a Wall Street grandee and one of its most respected and well-connected money managers, on charges of operating a $50bn (£33.5bn) investment scam. Many more expect to emerge with substantial losses and beetroot faces.

If Mr Madoff's estimate of $50bn in losses turns out to be correct, the scam will dwarf anything carried out by the eponymous Charles Ponzi in the 1920s. It would be more than four times larger than the fraud which brought down WorldCom, the telecoms giant, in 2002, the biggest bankruptcy in US history. It is not known yet just how many years the trader may have been cooking his books, but it might also end up as one of the longest to have gone undetected.

History repeating itself? Those dates sound familiar!!



[edit on 13-12-2008 by Breifne]

[edit on 13-12-2008 by Breifne]

Edit did not work above, so I will just post it here:

Madoff fraud case raises questions about SEC

Perfect example of pretending to fail and planning the legislative response!!

The stunning fraud Wall Street pillar Bernard Madoff is accused of has raised questions about whether federal regulators were lax in failing to scrutinize his operations and respond to alarms raised about them.

The SEC's Boston office has been accused in the past of brushing off a whistleblower's legitimate complaints, in a case that brought the resignation of the head of that unit in 2003. Markopolos's intervention was first reported in Friday's editions of The Wall Street Journal.

"There's no question the SEC had the authority to investigate fraud" in the investment adviser part of Madoff's business as well as the securities operation, William Galvin, Massachusetts' secretary of state and its top securities regulator, said in a telephone interview Friday. Galvin, like other state regulators, has been pushing for tighter government supervision of hedge funds, vast pools of capital holding an estimated $2.5 trillion in assets that are opaque, scantly regulated and partly blamed for the global financial crisis.

The SEC said it appeared that virtually all of the assets of his hedge fund business were missing.

Nice to know that the SEC are on top of things!
Link

Here's an interesting story about social security as a Ponzi scheme!

Wasn't insurance the next one to (appear to) fail?

Social Security Myth & the Ponzi Scheme

Originally posted by Breifne
Here's an interesting story about social security as a Ponzi scheme!

Wasn't insurance the next one to (appear to) fail?

Social Security Myth & the Ponzi Scheme

that's what we suspect. there's a lot of them based in bermuda also.

wiki info on ponzi schemes

The CGI 2007: Iraq President Talabani Speaks on Growth and Fairness


First sentance..."build a bridge to the 21 century"...then they discuss a brief history of economics for context and then an new economy.

reply to post by whiteraven


Yes, words words words. But Iraq will not see that 21st Century or it's benefits sometime soon. I just hope they are not waiting on the IMF!!

Link

I wonder where the circus will end up next?

reply to post by Breifne


I am trying to see the world as it is......

We have flashpoints erupting as we speak, in places we think we are isolated from but which in the end may be the destruction of a good portion of this planet for many.

I have spoken with refugees from Ivory coast, Ghana, Nigeria as well as befriended persons from Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia.

The conflicts are stunning as it seems we have bands of 12 to 30 year old men holding portions of city scapes under control to the extent that the local police will not interupt necklacing or local gang or tribe justice.

The breakdown of the family groups in Africa is stunning as well. Many have no parents, no school, no food and have no chioce but to live in a brute gang organization. Kill or be killed.

The fact that they allow it to take place, that is, mob justice, in many parts of Africa results in the above set of refugees in Canada. And we are just seeing the early part of the migration that is pushing toward the West.

The most alarming fact is that many Western countries such as France (Ivory Coast..African West Coast) are pulling out of the area and leaving it as hopeless.

Britain is trying to help out somewhat as is the US in Africa but I hear that many see it as lost as we are having our own issues.

Now we have riots in Greece. My daughter just left Greece and Turkey not more then a year ago. It was more or less safe and now we have a huge flashpoint that could carry on throughout Europe.

Russia seems to be fairly stable but they do have some issues.

South America has huge slums with an alarming rate of gangs trying to control portions of the country.

Mexico is almost under control of the druglords.

And now in America we have people calling for reform of the most alarming type complete with AK47's.

The video tried to put forth the idea that we are undergoing an economic change unseen since the Industrial Revoloution so now may be a good time to reread Dickens. lol

The question I have is how do we prosper during this time of unsettlement.

R seems to have some ideas yet if the bottom falls all out altogether what will we have to work with?

The Catholic Church, with all of its faults, is still the longest standing social/political organization on the planet and it may be wise to support the agenda while making a profit from whatever bridge building they may be doing.

Remember the alternative........the organization which is having a positive effect on these third world nations is Islam. And from a political point of view they are winning at the moment both in Europe and in Africa.

I will never forget listening to the BBC program Hard Talk with guest Baer saying that Bush had lost the war. This was back near the beginning of September.

The West is to occupied with itself to see this.

this should scare you -

more details here

by Shermanium on Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:47 am
someone (terry?) found this link
www.businessspectator.com.au...

Commentary
7:28 AM, 19 Nov 2008
Alan Kohler

A tsunami of hope or terror?

As the world slips into recession, it is also on the brink of a synthetic CDO cataclysm that could actually save the global banking system.

It is a truly great irony that the world’s banks could end up being saved not by governments, but by the synthetic CDO time bomb that they set ticking with their own questionable practices during the credit boom.

Alternatively, the triggering of default on the trillions of dollars worth of synthetic CDOs that were sold before 2007 could be a disaster that tips the world from recession into depression. Nobody knows, but it won’t be a small event.

A synthetic CDO is a collateralised debt obligation that is based on credit default swaps rather than physical debt securities.

CDOs were invented by Michael Milken’s Drexel Burnham Lambert in the late 1980s as a way to bundle asset backed securities into tranches with the same rating, so that investors could focus simply on the rating rather than the issuer of the bond.

About a decade later, a team working within JP Morgan Chase invented credit default swaps, which are contractual bets between two parties about whether a third party will default on its debt. In 2000 these were made legal, and at the same time were prevented from being regulated, by the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which specifies that products offered by banking institutions could not be regulated as futures contracts.

This bill, by the way, was 11,000 pages long, was never debated by Congress and was signed into law by President Clinton a week after it was passed. It lies at the root of America’s failure to regulate the debt derivatives that are now threatening the global economy.

Anyway, moving right along – some time after that an unknown bright spark within one of the investment banks came up with the idea of putting CDOs and CDSs together to create the synthetic CDO.

Here’s how it works: a bank will set up a shelf company in Cayman Islands or somewhere with $2 of capital and shareholders other than the bank itself. They are usually charities that could use a little cash, and when some nice banker in a suit shows up and offers them money to sign some documents, they do.

That allows the so-called special purpose vehicle (SPV) to have “deniability”, as in “it’s nothing to do with us” – an idea the banks would have picked up from the Godfather movies.

The bank then creates a CDS between itself and the SPV. Usually credit default swaps reference a single third party, but for the purpose of the synthetic CDOs, they reference at least 100 companies.

The CDS contracts between the SPV can be $US500 million to $US1 billion, or sometimes more. They have a variety of twists and turns, but it usually goes something like this: if seven of the 100 reference entities default, the SPV has to pay the bank a third of the money; if eight default, it’s two-thirds; and if nine default, the whole amount is repayable.

For this, the bank agrees to pay the SPV 1 or 2 per cent per annum of the contracted sum.

Finally the SPV is taken along to Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch’s and the ratings agencies sprinkle AAA magic dust upon it, and transform it from a pumpkin into a splendid coach.

The bank’s sales people then hit the road to sell this SPV to investors. It’s presented as the bank’s product, and the sales staff pretend that the bank is fully behind it, but of course it’s actually a $2 Cayman Islands company with one or two unknowing charities as shareholders.

It offers a highly-rated, investment-grade, fixed-interest product paying a 1 or 2 per cent premium. Those investors who bother to read the fine print will see that they will lose some or all of their money if seven, eight or nine of a long list of apparently strong global corporations go broke. In 2004-2006 it seemed money for jam. The companies listed would never go broke – it was unthinkable.

Here are some of the companies that are on all of the synthetic CDO reference lists: the three Icelandic banks, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, American Insurance Group, Ambac, MBIA, Countrywide Financial, Countrywide Home Loans, PMI, General Motors, Ford and a pretty full retinue of US home builders.

In other words, the bankers who created the synthetic CDOs knew exactly what they were doing. These were not simply investment products created out of thin air and designed to give their sales people something from which to earn fees – although they were that too.

They were specifically designed to protect the banks against default by the most leveraged companies in the world. And of course the banks knew better than anyone else who they were.

As one part of the bank was furiously selling loans to these companies, another part was furiously selling insurance contracts against them defaulting, to unsuspecting investors who were actually a bit like “Lloyds Names” – the 1500 or so individuals who back the London reinsurance giant.

Except in this case very few of the “names” knew what they were buying. And nobody has any idea how many were sold, or with what total face value.

It is known that some $2 billion was sold to charities and municipal councils in Australia, but that is just the tip of the iceberg in this country. And Australia, of course, is the tiniest tip of the global iceberg of synthetic CDOs. The total undoubtedly runs into trillions of dollars.

All the banks did it, not just Lehman Brothers which had the largest market share, and many of them seem to have invested in the things as well (a bit like a dog eating its own vomit).

It is now getting very interesting. The three Icelandic banks have defaulted, as has Countrywide, Lehman and Bear Stearns. AIG has been taken over by the US Government, which is counted as a part-default, and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are in “conservatorship”, which is also a part default – a 'part default' does not count as a 'full default' in calculating the nine that would trigger the CDS liabilities.

Ambac, MBIA, PMI, General Motors, Ford and a lot of US home builders are teetering.

If the list of defaults – full and partial – gets to nine, then a mass transfer of money will take place from unsuspecting investors around the world into the banking system. How much? Nobody knows, but it’s many trillions.

It will be the most colossal rights issue in the history of the world, all at once and non-renounceable. Actually, make that mandatory.

The distress among those who lose their money will be immense. It will be a real loss, not a theoretical paper loss. Cash will be transferred from their own bank accounts into the issuing bank, via these Cayman Islands special purpose vehicles.

The repercussions on the losers and the economies in which they live, will be unpredictable but definitely huge. Councils will have to put up rates to continue operating. Charities will go to the wall and be unable to continue helping those in need. Individual investors will lose everything.

There will also be a tsunami of litigation, as dumbfounded investors try to get their money back, claiming to have been deceived by the sales people who sold them the products. In Australia, some councils are already suing the now-defunct Lehman Brothers, and litigation funder, IMF Australia, has been studying synthetic CDOs for nine months preparing for the storm.

But for the banks, it’s happy days. Suddenly, when the ninth reference entity tips over, they will be flooded with capital. It’s possible they will have so much new capital, they won’t know what to do with it.

This is entirely uncharted territory so it’s impossible to know what will happen, but it is possible that the credit crunch will come to sudden and complete end, like the passing of a tornado that has left devastation in its wake, along with an eerie silence.

Wow......

This is crazy.....those bankers are crazy....like a fox.


It almost seems sureal.

Reinhardt says:

Pakistan NEEDS A War And.. Pakistan will get one

Africa will have to do on its own.
Cannibalism in some places (Kongo).
Have you seen film "Darwin's Nightmare"? Torrent it!

Africa and South America, they still haven't been discovered.
Europe to be rediscovered.
Global Balkanization ongoing.
USA economy, critical mass passed.
China bloating.
Frog jumps!

What does reinhardt mean by "XX shopping days to go"? Won't we be able to shop after that? Will there be total chaos? Or does this have to do with the inaguaration?

He forgot to time in Christmas shopping with the timing of a major offense such as aka Tet offense....peasents need Christmas!

So this, to me is North and South Korea as we have almost "normalized" North Korea. All we need to do to tap the labour in North Korea is make it more like South Korea.

We did this in Viet Nam. We pretended to lose the war...we never wanted to win...the war was a coverup for some economic/social changes funded part by the CIA. We now control Viet Nam more now then we did at any point in history...by we i mean the West....and by that I mean the power behind the west.

reply to post by eldard


= number of days to the Legatus winter meeting in Bermuda.

legatus.org...

reply to post by Breifne



Yea...thats right...but did not r mention that he forgot to time in the Chritmas shopping with a military offense...something akin to 60 days..i will look for it.

other things that took place in feb....1775 - American Revolutionary War: British Parliament declares Massachusetts has rebeled.

1825 - After no presidential candidate received a majority of electoral votes, the United States House of Representatives elects John Quincy Adams to be the President of the United States.

1942 - World War II: Top United States military leaders hold their first public meeting to discuss American military/economic strategy in the war.

1965 - Vietnam War: Huge Surge in US combat troops in South Vietnam.

1996 - The IRA restart the war after a 18 month ceasefire followed by a large bomb in London's Canary Wharf.



[edit on 16-12-2008 by whiteraven]

reply to post by whiteraven


He did, but the problem I have with it is that no one can predict when a war will start (i.e. to the day etc), unless it is give or take a month or so (I don't care how clued in he is)! A war is an incredible project-based operation and if it is timed, it will be timed for after the debasement, and possibly after the public works are finished.

There is still a lot of corruption that can take place during the course of a public works project, from tendering to completion dates.

The February event will be very interesting - everything appears to be coming together to suggest a large scale event (socio-economic, political or military).

My thoughts (at this moment).
(My thoughts change every 60 days)

reply to post by DangerDeath


I read somewhere that Pakistan will go bankrupt in Feb 2009 - a war may ration this, if anything, the books can be cooked and then burnt (if u know what I mean)!

I wonder what the impact of a nuclear strike will do to all things economic, political and socially - maybe this will take the US into the PAK-IND war (if that is the case), along with Europe's bloodthirsty pirates!