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Implications
When, in the wake of notorious kidnappings, parents and reporters clamor for information about the risk children face for such heinous crimes, the best answer currently available based on the data from this study is that an estimated 115 children and youth were the victims of a stereotypical kidnapping in the study year, and that the true number was somewhere between 60 and 170 (this range represents the 95-percent confidence interval around the estimate). This estimate is consistent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI's) estimates of the number of abductions by strangers in which, because of their seriousness or duration, Federal law enforcement becomes involved (M. Heimbach, personal communication, August 22, 2002).
The larger number identified in this study, the 58,200 nonfamily abduction victims, represents an estimate of the number of child victims of crimes that meet the legal definition of abduction by a nonfamily perpetrator. Most children's nonfamily abduction episodes do not involve elements of the extremely alarming kind of crime that parents and reporters have in mind (such as a child's being killed, abducted overnight, taken long distances, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child) when they think about a kidnapping by a stranger.
There was some kind of police contact regarding 47 percent of the nonfamily abducted children, either to report the child as missing or for other reasons. However, in 53 percent of cases, there was no police contact. Most caretakers who did not contact the police expected the child to return or did not think the episode was particularly serious, and some caretakers were never told about the episode (as revealed by the youth who were interviewed).
In 1988, NISMART�1 estimated that stereotypical kidnappings numbered between 200 and 300 annually (Finkelhor, Hotaling, and Sedlak, 1990). Comparing the new NISMART�2 estimates with these older estimates, people may be inclined to conclude that there has been a substantial decline in stereotypical kidnappings during the past decade. Unfortunately, such a clear-cut conclusion is not scientifically justified by the current evidence because the imprecision of the estimates and differences in the methodologies do not allow it.
(snip...)
By the numbers...
Estimate is based on an extremely small sample of cases; therefore, its precision and confidence interval are unreliable.
Originally posted by EricFM
It does seem odd to me that the media only covers certain situations of kidnapping. It's also makes me think where,from the large numbers Ocelot has posted, all these children go.
I have once read from the '96 interview with Alex Christopher that all these children actually are taken to that underground base that the Denver International Airport supposedly might have.
Interview with Alex Christopher
It's always sounded a wee-bit far fetched to me but you decide.
Originally posted by Losonczy
The only part that doesn't add up to me is that wouldn't you think that some would get out and report on it? I mean if they're in an underground base. Unless it's like La Femme Nakita where they wipe out the memory and own you.
Right, some real sick wierdo is going haywire, and making 50, 000 kids and their family pay. superly messed up.
Originally posted by Ocelot
Originally posted by SpittinCobra
I wonder whats going on, really going on.
Exactly. I mean Come on. There has to be something fishy going on here. This is a HUGE problem. Over 50 thousand children are kidnapped by strangers a year in the US!! Why is this not a HUGE story? Whats going on here. Where are all these children going?
Originally posted by Ocelot
Originally posted by SpittinCobra
I wonder whats going on, really going on.
Exactly. I mean Come on. There has to be something fishy going on here. This is a HUGE problem. Over 50 thousand children are kidnapped by strangers a year in the US!! Why is this not a HUGE story? Whats going on here. Where are all these children going?