It is looking like a victory for John McCain

The polls have shifted in favor of Sen. McCain, with him smashing Sen. Obama in the white vote. The women's vote is tied, which is unusual as Democrats used to stay ahead in that area. Sen. McCain's choice of Gov. Palin has really helped him in the Conservative and women's vote. The youth vote is strong for Sen. Obama, but not as strong as it once was. The minority vote is the only strong point for Sen. Obama, but Sen. McCain is reminding Hispanic voters he is their friend in the Senate as he supported a form of amnesty.
What was once assured support for Sen. Obama is shifting to Sen. McCain. Ralph Nader is taking 6% of the vote in polls where he is mentioned. With the choice of Gov. Palin, Bob Barrs supporters will go to Sen. McCain. Given many people vote a party into Congress and vote the opposite for President, it looks more and more that there will be a Republican victory in the fall.

What is the thought on this? Do others see that in the polls?

I look at this site because it has so many polls. Looks like McCain is up by 2.5 overall...

I still think it's too early to tell and I'm not sure if the polls will be accurate this year because from what I have read, there are a lot of new, young people who have registered to vote. I'm not sure all demographics are being covered with the polls. I have never put much weight into them.

In 2004, the gallup poll had Kerry and Bush tied at 49%. The election results were 48% for Kerry and 51% for Bush. So, 3-5 % in the polls is simply meaningless in my opinion.

Source

But, do I think McCain is going to win? Yeah. I think he will.

The way this threads are popping in ATS I guess we should start celebration the presidential inauguration of President McCain in the next day or two.

Hum I guess the strategy is changing now this must be new.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


Yea, you beat me too it Bh. realclearpolitics.com is a great source of unbias political tracking. but only to the point that polls can only tell us so much. to say it looks like MCcain is going to win based on polls in Sept before any of the debates is just bad speculation at this point. nothing against the OP but cant we all just agree its way too early to tell.

What I have been noticing lately after he resurrection of McCain campaign with the appointment of Palin is that now to prolong the good fortune and the media euphoria we are now starting to see a shifting of strategies.

The propaganda now is to make McCain as the presidential winner with polls popping all over the internet.

It is me the only one that see this new trend?

Don't get me wrong I believe that the power behind our government wants McCain to be the winner but I dont' see why the propaganda with this polls.

Frankly, marg, I think it's a tactic. Interestingly, when Obama hit 50% in the polls after the DNC, there were no threads about it (that I saw, anyway). McCain gaining in the polls is big news and his supporters are excited. That's why I think we're seeing this.

Or else it's a conspiracy. The McCain camp thinks if the polls are 2-3 points above Obama that he'll give up, perhaps? Or do something insane like dump Biden for Hillary?

I believe that is a new strategy, trying to keep the good outcome at least from the part of the media after bringing Palin on the bandwagon.

It amazed me how the planners of the political campaigns get to make all their money.

Republicans are known to be the ones that pay for the best of the best and the dirties.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


I think this the tactic of if you say something enough, people will believe it. If enough people keep saying how McCain is going to win, that mindset is put in everyones heads. thus making us less thrilled about Obama. A frenzy is created, and then magically we start hearing stories that there is trouble brewing in the Obama camp.

All started with the polls creating people talking. This works both ways, for both parites. To me, I equate it with college football polls.

they have polls for the first week of the season based on pure opinion and simple conjecture. There have been no games played, yet we are supposed to believe that Georgia is the number one team. Well after one week, the polls changed and now its USC.

Same thing with this election. We have polls with zero debates completed. After the first debate, the polls will surely shift. And again after the second and third.

Just as I think there shouldnt be polls in College football until after at least week 4 or 5, I think that polls wont matter till after the first or second debate.

[edit on 12-9-2008 by bknapple32]

[edit on 12-9-2008 by bknapple32]

A bit early to be calling a win for anyone. That's like calling the game over after 30 seconds in the first quarter of a football game.

At least wait for the debates. It should be an easy way for Obama to gain tons of ground back. He's an eloquent speaker and McCain bumbles a lot and looks like he's reading a script. That, in and of itself, should get Obama a few points back on the polls.

Edit to add:

Not that McCain is a bad speaker. He knows how to get people's emotions going, but Obama is Kennedyesk.

[edit on 12-9-2008 by Sublime620]

Sen McCain's campaign was going downhill real fast in November of 2007. The pundits thought he would drop out, but Sen McCain knew he would do well in New Hampshire and focused there with his town hall meetings.
Fast forward to the approaching conventions, and Sen McCain saw a sizable number of disaffected Hillary voters. He waited until the Democratic Convention was over and everyone was predicting Sen Obama's victory. Sen McCain did something that was incredibly bold and shocked (even the Republicans) by choosing Gov Palin to be his running mate. The conventional wisdom was Mitt Romney or some other pale male. He energized his conservative base (a few percentage may have voted for Bob Barr), and even managed to get a good deal of former Hillary supporters (the older white women). Sen McCain saw a huge surge in his donations, so he will be able to compete in more states.
When the polls are broken down, Sen McCain is trouncing Sen Obama in the white vote. Sen McCain knew he needed the women's vote, or he would be toast. The picking of Gov Palin, while some say it is pandering, is working.

What can Sen Obama do? He must have more of the town hall type meetings in middle America. He has to really campaign on a personal level, something he has a big weakness in. He has to explain to the middle class blue collar workers why they should vote for him. He also has to court the Hispanic vote as Sen McCain will definitely go after them now and remind them of his friendly votes their way. Finally, he must get out the vote. The turnout will be key in the close races.

Sen McCain is a likable former Vietnam POW, and he will play a more fatherly figure to Gov Palin's motherly and sisterly (to some of us older voters).

I also base my opinion on how the polls are with Sen McCain getting 50% of the support. It is very difficult to take support away in this part of the game as it is to get the undecided vote. They usually split 50/50, so I can't see Sen Obama benefiting from that vote.

Update:
The latest poll averages from states looks like Sen Obama will squeak by:

news.yahoo.com...

DE, MD, DC, VT, HI will go to Sen Obama, giving him a 271 electoral count victory. This one will have to wait for Hawaii to call it! That is close.

We've still got quite a way to go. From a purely superficial level, right now I see McCain winning, because that's just how the majority of the US thinks.. superficially. When you looked at Bush/Kerry in 04, if you looked as someone with reason, if you thought deeply, then maybe you'd be for Kerry.. But if you look on a superficial level, nobody that looks, speaks and acted like Kerry did would ever be elected president..

Superficially, right now, the McCain Palin ticket is winning, imho.

Waaaaay too early to call a win.

The polls shift back and forth so often it's best to wait till election night to see what happens.

I do know that the winner shall be officially declared anti-Christ for the end times...or at least thats the feeling I'm getting around these parts.

- Lee