Investors Looking To Leave Russia?

Originally posted by maloy
Investors aren't concerned about the wars Russia is waging or how popular it is around the world.

Investors are concerned with how stable the Russian government is, how favorable the economy and the local markets are, and how many opportunities the host country offers for them to make what counts most - money.

Investors are also concerned about the future of private industry in russia. Anyone can recall that the last time there was a soviet union all industry was nationalized. Getting harder and harder to tell russia apart from the soviet union these days in a number of ways.

Originally posted by centurion1211
Investors are also concerned about the future of private industry in russia.

The only sector that was partially nationalized was the energy industry. Nothing else has been touched by Kremlin, or is any threat of nationalization. The energy sector nationalization was inevitable because of the chaos caused in it by the oligarchs. That plus Russia's economic collapse in 1998 required immediate governmental reform - which is what you have seen.

Do not compare what Putin is doing with the Russian economy to communism. Rather compare it to what Roosevelt did in the U.S. during the Great Depression. Back then the U.S. government too started playing a far greater role in the country's economy and industry.

Originally posted by centurion1211
Anyone can recall that the last time there was a soviet union all industry was nationalized.

Again - what does Soviet Union have to do with any of this? Putin is not a communist, nor is the United Russia party - no where near communism. Have you actually researched what Putin did and what happened in Russia economically in the last decade? Doesn't look like it.

Originally posted by centurion1211
Getting harder and harder to tell russia apart from the soviet union these days in a number of ways.

Sorry I forgot who you are.


Getting harder and harder to tell U.S. apart from colonial authoritarian power of the 1700's. Same logic.

[edit on 26-8-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by maloy

The only sector that was partially nationalized was the energy industry. Nothing else has been touched by Kremlin, or is any threat of nationalization.

So far ...

Again - what does Soviet Union have to do with any of this? Putin is not a communist, nor is the United Russia party - no where near communism.

Maybe a "closet stalinist" would be a better label for Putin.

Oh, and could someone get a new picture of putin to use with news articles? The one they always show of him looking down his nose at the camera as if to say "you stupid ..." is laugable when you see him with other world leaders and realize putin couldn't look down at any of them.



[edit on 8/26/2008 by centurion1211]

Originally posted by centurion1211

Originally posted by maloy

The only sector that was partially nationalized was the energy industry. Nothing else has been touched by Kremlin, or is any threat of nationalization.

So far ...

Again - what does Soviet Union have to do with any of this? Putin is not a communist, nor is the United Russia party - no where near communism.

Maybe a "closet stalinist" would be a better label for Putin.

Oh, and could someone get a new picture of putin to use with news articles?

The one they always show of him looking down his nose at the camera as if to say "you stupid ..." is laugable when you see him with other world leaders and realize putin couldn't look down at any of them.

[edit on 8/26/2008 by centurion1211]

Wow if that wasn't the poorest reply to an educated post I've ever seen...
How does "So far..." refute his point in any way? What does Putin's physcial appearance and pictures have to do with anything in any way?

reply to post by Scurvy


Uh, I don't know ... So far as in who can tell what putin will decide to nationalize next? He has a habit of doing what everyone else thinks he won't.

And I mentioned his pictures because that is obviously part of some MSM plan to market Putin. Not sure if the intent is russian to try and make a little man look tough, or western to try and demonize him.

reply to post by jefwane


A considered response - but lacks perspective.

What of the British Aero Space bribing Saudis to purchase fighters from them ? A completely corrupt situation which was shoved under the carpet by Blair etc ...this is a far more serious situation than what occured in Russia with BP - far, far worse.

Yet your entire premise is that Russia is not stable, or reliable, yet it is abundantly clear that the US-Nato are forcing this issue via the de facto of Georgia in order to further their energy interests and secure a defensive ring around Russia - this threatens not merely Russia but ALL other non NATO countries by inference. This is far more destabilising and globally dangerous for business and investment than forcing BP to administer Russias energy interests in fair manner where decisions were being made (British had appointed themselves to all areas of authority in a ridiculous weighting of the board - which was combined with a legitimate take over) -

Again - as the original post - an argument completely decimated. What people need to realise is that this is a propaganda war being waged by western media - the arguments are clear and obvious, hence swallowing this garbage will only lead you to be utterly humiliated on these boards......

reply to post by audas


Are you saying that the level of risk to investment in Russia is no greater than it was on August 7th? I know that Russia has a ton of natural resources at her disposal, but I also know that Russia still needs access to foreign capital and expertise to develop those resources. I'm just an armchair economist, but if I were looking at investing in Russia in July as opposed to August I would definately require a higher return to compensate for the increased risk (be it real or just percieved).

If you do business with an American company and you can prove fraud in a court of law in the US I have the expectation that the court would order recourse. I have no such expectation if the same situation were to happen in Russia. That in itself, I would think, would cause anyone who is risk tolerant enough to invest/do business in Russia to require a higher return on investments. Are you saying that I'm wrong in that assesment and a Russian court would side with a foreign company in any case against a Russian company?

I can't really speak to the Brit-Saudi situation because I'm not familiar with it. I concede that the BP-Yukos situation isn't the best example but it is an example of what you can expect when you do business in Russia. I believe that Russia is more stable than it has been in 20 years, and is reliable in that it will act to protect native interests regardless of contract or ownership.

My IRA is currently in short-term US Treasuries, but at some point when things settle down I'm going to diversify a bit. Russia is not one of the developing markets I'm comfortable even looking at right now. Before the SO situation, Russia was second only to Brazil in my mind as far as a potential place to invest in, despite the risks involved with nationalization/nationalism present even then. Since SO I feel that the risks outweigh the potential gains, but that's just me and how I manage my most conservative assett.

Maybe this action in SO has simply awakened some nationalism within me and I'm thinking emotionally rather than intellectually. I'm willing to live with that if so.(BTW my hometown in US Georgia has had a cultural exchange with Poti since I was a pre-teen). As a matter of fact I think we could use some Putinish type nationalism here in the US rather than the internationalism in economics that is degrading our standard of living currently.

Edit to add: I feel in no way humiliated. It is after all a conspiracy board. The exapansion of NATO into the Caucuses and the oil angle have been discussed extensively in other threads. I personally was against expansion of NATO beyond the most recent additions because I've always felt the best way to deal with a paranoid person or nation that you have to live with is to give them some space, but given recent event I'm revisiting my thoughts about that.

[edit on 26-8-2008 by jefwane]

[edit on 26-8-2008 by jefwane]

Russia has indeed shot itself in the foot, just the same as the US. No currency is worth anything as long as the country that issues it has a no confidence vote from the users.

In the US we have less than 10 percent approval rating for a leader that lied to us. Others that trade with us are aware of no confidence in the house and senate as well and our markets reflect it.

In the case of Russia its only the outsiders with no confidence so they will bounce right back. What will destroy them is if their approval rate from within drops to 10-12 percent. It will be like shooting the pistol in the waistband in that case.

The only thing that will help when its like that is mass humanitarian programs that give the confidence back. You have to earn trust. The bush gang not only didn't earn it, in turn they were despised.

The first thing Putin needs to do is pull all tha army back leaving only soldiers with small arms and busses as a gesture of only being there to keep the peace. Then he has to turn right around and dump aid on those folks as well as work inside russia.

If he fails to do so, he will be ruined along with the economy.

In the case of the US after the election we know we will be back up to a tiny bit more than 50% approval and we are right back where we should be regardless of who sits at the desk. Our polis refused to obey doctrine and in turn hurt everyone. The gains they made in pocket profits are cursed to the 7th generation and just like other families who made it big from prohibition they will feel the wrath. That is an occult result from the deeds.

The article is misleading:

On Friday, Russia's central bank announced that its foreign currency reserves -- a key part of its economic stability and an indicator of foreign investor support -- had plunged $16.4 billion in the most recent week, to $581.1 billion (see chart).

Foreign currency reserves are assets belonging to respective central banks (not foreign investors). FCR are held primarily for the purpose of conducting international trade...with the vast majority held in the form of US Treasuries. Any change in the balance of FCR reflects internal central bank decision-making....not foreign investor sentiment.

A temporary decline in FRC could be the result many things, not limited to: sovereign wealth fund diversification...currency intervention...or a simple lack of confidence in the US Dollar

The author also attempts to leave the impression that a dramatic 'plunge' occured within a week:

"had plunged $16.4 billion in the most recent week, to $581.1 billion...."

" Last week's decline was the largest since Russia's 1998 currency crisis"

This data is released on a monthly basis.

If you scan a couple editorials at IBD's home site, you can get a little perspective on the authors political bent...it won't take much reading.

Edi to add: With respect to investing in the Russian resource sector...for the last 3-4yrs, sentiment among knowledgeable US & Canadian fund managers, as well as retail investors, runs from cautious..to..extremely cautious..to..don't even think about it.

[edit on 26-8-2008 by OBE1]

To both of you - you are perceiving this from a particularly American perspective - this is the consistent and most frustrating drawback of Americans - please try and get a more global perspective - A Brit has just made MASSIVE gains from a 25 cent investment in Imperial - now invested in by India - any issues there ? No.

Who cares about tin pot investors - go put your money into Sierra Leone for all anyone cares - were are talking about International Geopolitical machinations here.

The point to no JefWayne - is that the West - you - has performed significantly worse than Russia has. The blatant oil grab in the middle east of Iraq and subsequently Iran - pre-empted by statements all the way back to carter that any foreign challenge to America control of the middle east will be seen as a direct threat and unilateral military action will be taken - please - how is this international rule of law ??

You are simply taking any all actions of the west being justified and legal and any action counter to the interests of the west (Uk US) as being illegal and unjustified - it is pure nonsense.

The rest of the world is rising and FAST - Russia couldn't give a stuff about the west any more as it has India and China - these represent already a greater market than all of Europe and will soon be greater than Europe and America combined - the reality is WHO CARES about the west - because the east has lost interest - the US is falling over and the east doesn't even care...

sorry but reality jst has to settle in sometime.

As far as Canada is concenred oooooh - keep stuffing up the planet with your oil sands - you are so tied to the US that your fate will be shared - a stuuupid mistake.

Originally posted by maloy
reply to post by loam

 

Lawlessness? What are you talking about? Russia isn't Iraq or Afghanistan.

You've got to be kidding.

Corruption in Fast-Growing Markets: Lessons from Russia and Vietnam (.pdf)


Russia has witnessed rapid economic growth in recent years – the economy grew by more than 7% in 2007 and this trend is expected to continue. The Business Anti-Corruption (BAC) portal reports that in both qualitative and quantitative terms, corruption is also on the rise. In the 2007 Global Integrity Report, Russia received an overall integrity score of “weak”. Sectors most affected by corruption were “Civil Society, Public Information and Media”, “Government Accountability” and “Administration and Civil Service”, all of which received scores of “very weak”, and “Elections” and “Anti-Corruption and Rule of Law” sectors received scores of “weak”.

The INDEM foundation, a Moscow-based NGO reports a 900% growth in the volume of bribery between 2001 and 2005, while the EBRD reported a total increase of 50% in the volume of bribery between 2002 and 2005. The 2005 Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS), conducted by the World Bank, indicates that the bribe tax had fallen from 1.4% of a firm’s annual sales in 2002 to 1.0% in 2005; however, because of Russia’s general economic growth, the actual amount of money paid as bribes by businesses has grown. The BEEPS also indicates that 40% of firms surveyed in 2005 reported corruption as a major problem to doing business, increasing from 30% in 2002.

I'd be glad to deliver a few hundred more links and direct examples.

You might be able to fool some, but not all. Besides, I happen to know better about this one.


[edit on 27-8-2008 by loam]

Originally posted by loam

Originally posted by maloy
reply to post by loam

 

Lawlessness? What are you talking about? Russia isn't Iraq or Afghanistan.

You've got to be kidding.

Corruption in Fast-Growing Markets: Lessons from Russia and Vietnam (.pdf)


Russia has witnessed rapid economic growth in recent years – the economy grew by more than 7% in 2007 and this trend is expected to continue. The Business Anti-Corruption (BAC) portal reports that in both qualitative and quantitative terms, corruption is also on the rise. In the 2007 Global Integrity Report, Russia received an overall integrity score of “weak”. Sectors most affected by corruption were “Civil Society, Public Information and Media”, “Government Accountability” and “Administration and Civil Service”, all of which received scores of “very weak”, and “Elections” and “Anti-Corruption and Rule of Law” sectors received scores of “weak”.

The INDEM foundation, a Moscow-based NGO reports a 900% growth in the volume of bribery between 2001 and 2005, while the EBRD reported a total increase of 50% in the volume of bribery between 2002 and 2005. The 2005 Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS), conducted by the World Bank, indicates that the bribe tax had fallen from 1.4% of a firm’s annual sales in 2002 to 1.0% in 2005; however, because of Russia’s general economic growth, the actual amount of money paid as bribes by businesses has grown. The BEEPS also indicates that 40% of firms surveyed in 2005 reported corruption as a major problem to doing business, increasing from 30% in 2002.

I'd be glad to deliver a few hundred more links and direct examples.

You might be able to fool some, but not all. Besides, I happen to know better about this one.

[edit on 27-8-2008 by loam]

Smug aren't you.

Pointing out corruption and anti-social behaviour only leaves open to humiliation -

The UK has been slated globally for the level of corruption rampant in its corridors of power - the recent BAE farce highlights just how far institutionalised corruption has gone.

The united sates is a bastion of institutionalised corruption - it does not get any worse - the Iron Triangle and Revolving Door of the Military Industrial Complex is far, far worse - the K-street lobbyists are far and away more insidious than anything Russia has to offer -

The reality is that US-UK have legalised their corruption - it is simply accepted. The idea that Oil Executives (Bush, Rice, Cheney) are running the country is all that needs to be said.

The US has completely dismantled its freedoms and now operates the most insidious form of government oppression by any nation - per capita executing more and incarceration rates above any other nation, citizen spying, detention without cause, removal of presumption of innocence, rendition, government sanctioned torture - again as before - there is nothing illegal or wrong about this as it has all been done legally - morally it is repugnant beyond anything being done anywhere.....

UK has been singled out for oppressive practices including total press censorship, worst practice on EARTH for detention without cause (42 days) and much much more -

The United States has implemented a profoundly corrupt system of loans to corrupt governments which are forced upon citizens of the third world which has created some of the worst misery this planet has seen since the dark ages - it continues this system (TRIPS) with intellectual property rights via the WTO which have caused the death of untold millions by denying access to generic drugs. It has bent a system of governance to institute laws which caused the death of millions including half a million children in Iraq by waging a war of denial against the people of Iraq - a crime against humanity.

The US has instituted through IPR seed monopolization treaties which potentially threaten the entire third world food supply and could have already caused the deaths of thousands.


So you don't know - in fact you have just been completely rebuked - you would do better to gain a grasp on reality rather than pontificating from the pulpit of ignorance. You gossamer understanding of US-UK interactions on the world is highlighted by infantile assessments of intergovernmental institutions which act in accord with those who are responsible for the most outrageous acts of crime against the people of this earth - heinous crimes which have been sanctioned by the perpetrators - the most repugnant form of nepotism cloaked in nefarious veil of benign double speak - no -it is you who does not know. Clearly you do not know.

reply to post by audas


*yawn*

I've read your self-interested dribble and found it for the most part an entertaining piece of fiction.

Oh, no doubt the US and UK have their fair share of issues. But none serve as a refutation, or dare I say it, justification for what can be found in the business climate in Russia. (Remember? That happens to be the subject of the thread.)



Thanks for the great fiction.

You fit in nicely here.

Originally posted by loam
reply to post by audas

 

*yawn*

I've read your self-interested dribble and found it for the most part an entertaining piece of fiction.

Oh, no doubt the US and UK have their fair share of issues. But none serve as a refutation, or dare I say it, justification for what can be found in the business climate in Russia. (Remember? That happens to be the subject of the thread.)

Thanks for the great fiction.

You fit in nicely here.

Actually I specialise in this area at a high level - the BAE incident is not fiction but is fact - a fact available in any newspaper - as is every other piece of information I have offered you - you have made a complete mockery of yourself....

Attempting to undermine my coherent, considered post which deals with fundamental truths available to even the most lay person of basic faculties with "emoticons" and simply trying to pass it off as fiction shows you for what you are - completely ignorant. Totally.

Not a single issue I raised is not considered a complete fact, further it takes your arguments and assertions and splatters them across the intellectual divide which glaringly separates us.

Sometimes it just feels good to publicly and completely humiliate someone - even if anonymously - but in all fairness - a AWESOME response from you -

you remind me of this guy::-

www.history.navy.mil...


[edit on 27-8-2008 by audas]

Originally posted by audas
...further it takes your arguments and assertions and splatters them across the intellectual divide which glaringly separates us...

I really do love the way you write. (Too bad you don't put that skill to substantive use. )

After you're finished contemplating the "intellectual divide which glaringly separates us", can you help me understand how anything you have written addresses the following point:

Originally posted by loam
Oh, no doubt the US and UK have their fair share of issues. But none serve as a refutation, or dare I say it, justification for what can be found in the business climate in Russia. (Remember? That happens to be the subject of the thread.)

You're very funny.

Originally posted by Cl0aK
I wish the bear would go back into hibernation already. It seems to think it's sniffing around its own backyard eventhough the port city of Poti has 'Future Resident of NATO parking' signs at every dock.

Ah well, it won't be long before this cub crawls back in its cave again anyways since all the other animals in the forest are getting together to ground it for a while.

If Georgia and NATO want the bear to go back into hibernation... perhaps Georgia should stop kicking the cub.

Sounds like rationality to me.

reply to post by audas(ity)


I'm sorry for whatever trauma you may have suffered in your formative years that has left you so fixated on mockery and humiliation. One should really remember that children can be cruel, and though the pain may last a while there is no reason to let such traumas impress upon your dealings with other adults.

I would venture to guess that given the views and beliefs here, the membership of ATS is probably much more thick-skinned in regards to attempted humiliation and mockery than your average oak tree.

reply to loam

I don't know about you, but I felt so ashamed and humiliated when I read this article in Businesweek today.

Business Week 8-27-08

The outflow follows a barrage of shocks to investor sentiment that has revived old fears about the stability of Russia's investment climate.

SNIP

Hermitage Capital revealed that Russian police had raided lawyers working for Hermitage and HSBC, apparently in response to Hermitage's complaints about alleged fraud. In a statement to the media, Hermitage called the actions "a sign of the deteriorating rule of law" and "a chilling message to all investors."

Such cases are a reminder of the weak legal protections for foreign investors who fall afoul of Russian authorities or powerful local partners.

Lest I be accused of viewing things solely through my Occidental glasses, I'd like to point out that the article also mentioned that the outflows may actually help cool the inflation that has been coursing through the Russian economy, and declines to date in the Russian market are no worse than other developing economies, and also that the Russian consumer spending is still increasing at a pretty good clip. Which are all good things for the Russian people.

reply to OBE1
Nope wouldn't touch the Russian resource sector with anothers money. The things that I had been interested in were consumer goods plays within Russia that they might both domestically consume and export i.e. Vodka (yum) and consumer services like cellphone service providers.

[edit on 27-8-2008 by jefwane]

Originally posted by jefwane
reply to post by audas(ity)

 

I'm sorry for whatever trauma you may have suffered in your formative years that has left you so fixated on mockery and humiliation. One should really remember that children can be cruel, and though the pain may last a while there is no reason to let such traumas impress upon your dealings with other adults.

I would venture to guess that given the views and beliefs here, the membership of ATS is probably much more thick-skinned in regards to attempted humiliation and mockery than your average oak tree.

reply to loam

I don't know about you, but I felt so ashamed and humiliated when I read this article in Businesweek today.

Business Week 8-27-08

The outflow follows a barrage of shocks to investor sentiment that has revived old fears about the stability of Russia's investment climate.

SNIP

Hermitage Capital revealed that Russian police had raided lawyers working for Hermitage and HSBC, apparently in response to Hermitage's complaints about alleged fraud. In a statement to the media, Hermitage called the actions "a sign of the deteriorating rule of law" and "a chilling message to all investors."

Such cases are a reminder of the weak legal protections for foreign investors who fall afoul of Russian authorities or powerful local partners.

Lest I be accused of viewing things solely through my Occidental glasses, I'd like to point out that the article also mentioned that the outflows may actually help cool the inflation that has been coursing through the Russian economy, and declines to date in the Russian market are no worse than other developing economies, and also that the Russian consumer spending is still increasing at a pretty good clip. Which are all good things for the Russian people.

reply to OBE1
Nope wouldn't touch the Russian resource sector with anothers money. The things that I had been interested in were consumer goods plays within Russia that they might both domestically consume and export i.e. Vodka (yum) and consumer services like cellphone service providers.

[edit on 27-8-2008 by jefwane]

mainly directed at loams ridiculous emoticons and dismissive posts - my point remains - the west is JUST as guilty of nepotism and corruption as Russia - more so. Further the financial hurricane pushing through the UK and US is far, far greater than anything in the East - further Russia has strong alliances with China and Asia - a region that has been almost unaffected by the collapse in the west - startling indeed. You are relying and stereotypes and want it to be true rather than looking at the picture -

Rio Tinto is seeing 55% increases year on end growth through asia - 50,000 sky scrapers are to go up in China in the next 20 years, with 200 cities being built.......what is the west doing ? Collapsing.

The most recent Prospect magazine is forecasting a 40% reduction in housing prices from 2007 by 2010 with no projected recovery - full scale recession is now in swing with no upturn likely for several years -

You can rummage around the internet for petty articles all you want to justify what you want to believe - the reality is the the UK is about to lose its grip completely with the US facing possible collapse.

The comptroller of the US has quit and is starting an awareness campaign on this very issue.

Finally nothing, and i mean NOTHING, comes close to the corruption surrounding the BAE scandal -

India, Australia, China, and the east are rushing to Russia faster than you can say boo - the west is being frozen out becuase they are behaving so badly -

its as plain as the nose on your face.

Originally posted by audas
A Brit has just made MASSIVE gains from a 25 cent investment in Imperial

The point here?

Imperial - now invested in by India - any issues there ? No.

Actually India's "state owned' ONGC tendered 2.6BB ($2.82 bbl, P2) to buy 100% of Imperial. The deal looks like a go, but still awaits input from the Kremlin...likely to be contingent on a JV split with a Russian 'state owned' oil conglomerate.

Question: Why are Russian P2 reserves valued at such significant discount to probable & proven reserves in more stable oil producing countries..$2.82 vs $10.00? Hint: Re-read jefwane' posts. Remember, it's only been a matter of months since Imperial' exploration licenses were in jeopardy...courtesy of Russia's Natural Resources Ministry.

India is facing a phenomenal middle class expansion, and ONGC is faced with declining production. Like the British fellow with the .25 cent, nano-cap lotto ticket (probably purchased sometime in 2004 when Imperial began trading in the "Alternative Investment Market"...very British, no?.....in the states, we jus calls 'um OTCBB/OTCQX penny stocks. Anyway, given that India can't expand it's economy without an equal expansion in it's resource base (takes lots of oil to grow GDP)...ONGC has been known to purchase the occasional lotto-ticket (see ONGC/Sudan).

I'm not claiming that Imperial doesn't have the goods, just saying that at $2.85bbl...the market recognizes the risk.

Who cares about tin pot investors - go put your money into Sierra Leone for all anyone cares.

Revealing.

Word: Don't take yourself so seriously.

Edit: Civility



[edit on 29-8-2008 by OBE1]

reply to post by audas


First let me apologize for my jab, the tone of your posts on this thread caused me to lose my cool while typing that response.

If you are familiar with my posts in other threads, you'll find that I am quite pessimistic about the near to medium term condition of the economic situation in the US. Though I am less comfortable commenting on the European situation, everything I see leads me to believe they are in a similar situation as we are. Canada and Australia are both resource rich countries that I expect to weather the coming storm reasonably well.

I didn't have to "scour" the internet to find an article about Russia to support my beliefs. The one I found that I linked to in my thread was hot of the pressess, but a quick google of "Russia and corruption" offered up a plethora of articles dated from the late 90's to the present. Were Russia progressing instead of regressing in regards to property and ownership rights and political system in a way that left future actions more predictable it would in my opinion be a pretty decent place to hide out in while the West gets it's house in order. Even in the Soviet days Russia was known and repsected for it's great scientists and engineers. Now it is known as well for it's mafia and rampant computer fraud originating from there.

There is no doubt that China has the potential to make the 21st century it's own much like the 20th was the US's. However, as the west slows down it's consumption China must find a consumer to replace that western consumer that Wal-Mart shopped himself right out of a job. It may be able to do it domestically, with a whole lot of luck, but I doubt the growing middle class and political caste in Russia is quite as willing to act in the same manner as their Western counterparts with regards to the "religion of free trade" at the expense of domestic manufacturing.

OBE1 has some cogent points about India, and I totally agree.The facts that it must feed it's population crammed into the sub-continent, bordered by a hostile nearly as populous nation with which it is currently having a hot border dispute with and has fought several wars with since Independence, leave some serious concerns. However, a fairly strong multi-party democracy and the fact that it graduates large numbers of engineers and doctors leave it with some real potential.

Will those three large diverse and globally important countries be able to come to some sort of mutually beneficial agreement at the expense of the West while we shake off past excesses at the end of this Long Cycle of Capitalism? I don't know their are some pretty big challenges there and it's not like those three exist in geographic isolation from each other. If the West collapses as hard as you seem to believe (possible I'll admit but not likely) how long before they start butting heads in thier own back yards?