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Iraq is back in the headlines in the United States. On the campaign trail, Republican presidential candidate John McCain has repeatedly attacked Democratic candidate Barack Obama for failing to support the White House's "surge" of 30,000 more troops to Iraq last year. Mr. McCain argues that the surge is responsible for the steep decline in political violence over the past 12 months.
Mr. McCain is wrong. The three developments that were most effective in driving down the fatality rate had little to do with the extra U.S. troops.
First was the security effect of forced population movements. The good news about declining civilian deaths, particularly in Baghdad, was due in part to the bad news about ethnic cleansing. Sectarian violence continued to drive people from their homes in the Iraqi capital throughout the buildup to the surge in the first half of 2007. Areas controlled by Shiites expanded in the north of the city, while Sunnis, who were mostly on the losing side, consolidated in the south.