Stratfor: China Heading for Crisis

If any of you here have yet to do so, I encourage all ATSers to get the free weekly intelligence report from Stratfor.com This group of former CIAers and analysts are often well ahead of the MSM on predicting major incidents and their effects on the geopolitical realm.

That being said, Stratfor is raising the red flag (no pun intended) on China. I've not been paying too much attention to this, and I probably should. Stratfor says that the recent clamp down on Visas for travel within China during the Olympics is just the latest in a slew of contradictory, insane policy decisions that indicate the central Communist government is panicking and trying to prevent societal meltdown.

China’s rapid and contradictory economic and security policies, rising social tensions, and seemingly counterproductive visa regulations appear to be signs of a government in crisis. They are the reactionary policies of a central leadership trying to preserve its authority, stabilize social stability and postpone an economic crisis. At the same time, we see signs that the local governments, and even organs of the central government, are putting up steady resistance to the announcements coming from Beijing. Slapping restrictions on foreign businessmen may make little sense from a broader business continuity sense, but if the point is to begin breaking the backs of the local governments — whose strength lies in their relations with foreign businesses — then the moves may make more sense.

If the central government has reached the point that it is willing to risk its international business role to rein in wayward local officials, however, then the Chinese leadership sees a major crisis looming or already under way. It is one thing to toss out a few local leaders and replace them, quite another to undermine the structure of the Chinese economy for the sake of regaining control over local officials. But if Chinese history since 1949 (and really quite a ways before) is any guide, the core of the CPC leadership is willing to sacrifice social and economic stability to preserve power. One need only look at the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution or the crackdown at Tiananmen Square for evidence of this. Revolution is not, after all, a dinner party, and maintaining CPC control is paramount to the government.

There is much more to this report. Seems like the credit crisis is stabbing China in its heart at the moment...

And this is what bull globalists don't get. There is no such thing as decoupling. Sorry, when America and Western Europe go down, so will these up-and-coming powers. After all, who the hell is China going to sell to when we contract? Itself?

And places like China and India are going to feel the pain especially hard, because their growth rate was in bubble territory. It's the old law of gravity: what goes up, must come down and often in direct proportion to its velocity.

Seems what is occurring here is the fast ripening of a worldwide Depression; what worries me are the reactionary steps countries like China will take to a) deny its troubles and b) keep its people in line. Remember, Chinese Communist dictum holds that manufacturing war is one of the best ways to keep a populace in line and in love with the Central Government...

[edit on 7/30/2008 by behindthescenes]

Very interesting my friend. Topic Flagged.
I reckon the economic aftermath of the olympics is going to be pretty harsh on China... Lots of investors will be pulling out of there....

China's been totally pwned and whatever they're going to do they have to do with the world's eyes on them. It's no coincidence it's happening in the year the Olympics are being held in Beijing while this goes down.

The weapon of choice isn't military and it's being wielded brilliantly. I've been waiting for this sort of news for a few months now.

What do you expect will happen EnlightenUP ?

[edit on 30-7-2008 by Ismail]

Originally posted by Ismail
What do you expect will happen EnlightenUP ?

[edit on 30-7-2008 by Ismail]

I think China's little red government over there has been set up to self destruct. I could be very wrong but that's been my feeling about it.

reply to post by EnlightenUp


It's bound to. Corruption and dissent in China always reaches new highs.. while economically they have reformed, to make way for new sky scrapers they force by gun point thousands into ghettos.. we don't get a lot of news out of China, imo, it's the same old story.

Civil war will be the downfall of China, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened relatively soon.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by EnlightenUp

 

Civil war will be the downfall of China, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened relatively soon.

I'm not sure if the government will ever let it get to the point of civil war. The system has a way of allowing dissent to fester with liberal policies, and then in a sudden turn, purge the system under ruthless suppression, despite all the condemnations from the world.

They'll do it again -- another Tieneman Square in the making. And you can bet that despite all the threats and yelling from the U.S. and other western nations, not a single reprecussion of significance will take place -- our corporate giants have way too much vested in China right now to piss'em off.

The remote possible fear here is just how severe will China react? If it can't quell the dissent quickly, then how long before the government turns to its other old operating procedure -- stirring up extreme nationalism. IMO: Taiwan would be the obvious target there.

Well, if you're right, I wouldn't like to be in a revolutionary's shoes. China would be for me one of the top "hardest to overthrow" regimes.
But then again, not much data coming through from China, so it's hard to get the big picture...

Stratfor has been warning about this for years... and so have I! China really is in bad shape underneath all the miraculous economic growth, and something is going to have to give... it won't be pretty.

It is estimated that China executes 10-15k people a year. Last year the USA executed 42 inmates. Life is valued less there and that's strike one against the people. The standard of living for their people has been increasing steadily over the years however the policies of their government have remained rigid and archaic. Who here listened to NPR's reports on their governments efforts after the earthquake and think - propaganda machine? Who here has heard of the great wall of China and thought: that won't last.

It's a joke. As soon as the masses of that country start thinking independently the elite will be required to adapt or face possible revolution.

Such China-collapse theory kept on for several decades,
but China is still the most vigorous and fastest growing economy,
and Chinese people are the most optimistic people.
I suggest you guys: instead of staying in your home being brainwashed
by your "free" media, pay a visit to China, you will find China is
quite different from what your "free" media tell you.
welcome to Beijing for Olympics.

[edit on 31-7-2008 by gs001]

China will go democratic when the economy changes. It's been on the cards for a while, the expanding middle class are becoming more powerful. The Chinese students at my university believe it is only a matter of time because if China is to become the main superpower, it will have to become democratic.

India's biggest advantage of China is democracy, the accountability - albeit weak - deals with corruption within the system. That does not happen with China.

Originally posted by infinite
India's biggest advantage of China is democracy, the accountability - albeit weak - deals with corruption within the system. That does not happen with China.

Up to now, none of Asian countries became rich by democracy,
on the contrary, their fast-develop era were in their dictatorial period.
when they became democracy, their develop speed slowed down.
So, democracy can just insure justness of a society, but will probably
harm the efficiency of a society.
Maybe India is an exception in Asia? let's wait and see.
Americans always apotheosize democracy and believe democracy can slove
any problem, that is why they make chaos all over the world.


[edit on 31-7-2008 by gs001]

US do not want China to become too democratic as they are very much happy with their communist country buying out our debt.

What will happen if their nation have a change of government that is not leaning into democracy but more despot that the one they have.

Who then will US turn in order to keep financing our budget?

You know is more to US china relationships that just buying chinas goods.

[edit on 31-7-2008 by marg6043]

This is from former CIA analysts ?? pitiful research.


Most of China's growth and expansion are caused by INTERNAL forces, not external. Its Chinese buying Chinese products, and now luxury products mostly from Europe since USA manufacturing collapsed. China does not have the credit based ( house of cards) system that the USA has, they pay cash. Its a very strong economy, the average savings rate here is in the 30%+ range.

The second point is construction is financed by foreign capital. If it all pulled out its the foreign companies that would be hurt, not Chinese.

The third point is China has massive reserves, Several Trillion invested in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, North America and now starting in South America. This Capital can be used in various ways by China.

Visa restrictions which these analysts seem to focus on, is tightening access to the Olympics...each nation that has the olympics tends to do the same, why this triggered the article isnt made clear by the writer. Especially with terror groups releasing videos with implicit warnings about the Olympics.

If anyone manufactures war it is the USA, statements like this are incredibly ignorant.

Germany has the best grasp of Chinese politics business and culture. They sell the crap out of Siemans, Mercedes, BMW, Krupps, and most anything luxury here. Chinese cannot get enough German quality made goods. Germany has run trade surplus with China for the last several decades.

The spectacular failure of the Bush adminstration is the complete ignorance of what China represents. 10-20 years from now this adminstration will be looked back upon as the most damaging to US interests, with China the main lost opportunity.

I am surprised at the ameteur level of research and reactionary prose in the article. If this is what the CIA sends to the President, no wonder they make ignorant decisions.

Oh yeah, let's all just wait for China to by chance become democratic, and let's all just wait for the corporations to by chance grow a soul and care about human life more than profit margins. You know this is ALL a setup, don't you? China government, US government, European government, there's NO difference except in the illusion of...

reply to post by Hallberg Rassy


The CIA thought China would go democratic by 1992. Those guys are not the smartest people in the world when it comes to predictions.

I remember reading the Bible Codes and in the book, it told of the fall of communism. It refered to Russa, then it Said, Next China. YOU can see the old communism party fall apart left and right as it gives into Capitalism. The Peoples party is still very much in Charge. Also every one reading this post must watch the documentary on China currently running on PBS. This will help people understand the current role the peoples party play in politics.
But China is chaning, and it will eventually leave the communism behind. How it will leave behind the old order, is anyones guess. People need to realize China is like Europe. China once had many different countries like Europe has today. China is like a roman Empire of the East, and when it falls, these senarios could happen.
1. China is once again split between a Civil war Dividing the Country into 2 or many more factions
2. China maintans its Stability and comes out like Russa, with all of its Soviet Satellites Countries.
3. China Economy collapses under political Stress forcing Europe and the US to have a shortage of China Made goods.
The US is probably watching and not supporting any faction that wants political Freedom, but keep a close eye on Tawain, and Japan who feel threaten by China. Also Countries like Vietnam, Philippines, and Korea would like nothing more than to reduce the Competition and territory claims into these countries territory. Japan is considering to change the Constitution there to allow an Military to be used like any other countries military. Japan feels threaten by the territory claims of china over some Islands.

reply to post by Hallberg Rassy


I would like to differ on this point. I would like to point out that China did not get to where they are by themselves they did have external forces, investment from businessmen from other countries wanting to get rich quick. Most did I would assume. and so did the local businessmen who did business with foreign businessmen. ....there has been stories of workers who did not get paid for 1 year. The poor country labourer coming into the city to find construction work, they found work but was not regularly paid. There was some story back years ago when the construction of china / Shanghai/Beijing began , of construction workers were paid only once a year. they had to sign a contract before hand to agree. They were living in squalid conditions. And you know what? the local chinese businessmen were old cadre of the red army or were close to those who were the chinese government leaders. It was growth but with an iron fist. Even today, in making way for olympic buildings the chinese government took private land and houses away from people without proper compensation because in china there is no private land laws. Everything you have belongs to them. Even if generations have lived there.
So in fact China's growth was not all internal forces unless you count the down trodding of their people and silencing of all dissent.

Originally posted by behindthescenes

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by EnlightenUp

 

Civil war will be the downfall of China, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened relatively soon.

I'm not sure if the government will ever let it get to the point of civil war. The system has a way of allowing dissent to fester with liberal policies, and then in a sudden turn, purge the system under ruthless suppression, despite all the condemnations from the world.

They'll do it again -- another Tieneman Square in the making. And you can bet that despite all the threats and yelling from the U.S. and other western nations, not a single reprecussion of significance will take place -- our corporate giants have way too much vested in China right now to piss'em off.

The remote possible fear here is just how severe will China react? If it can't quell the dissent quickly, then how long before the government turns to its other old operating procedure -- stirring up extreme nationalism. IMO: Taiwan would be the obvious target there.

I know its really not our place, but sometimes I think other countries should help in overturning horrible dictatorships like this.

However in Iran/Iraq, the US reconstituted a dictator by the name of Saddam Huissein (sp?). Correct if I'm wrong I haven't had history for awhile.... eh heh..

We do it in other places, right? You ever see those commercials before movies about our military/marines that says roughly 'We Save Countries'...

Maybe it's about time to react.

[edit on 31-7-2008 by The dragon is taking over]