Things look good for Obama!

link

If these numbers are correct McCain has a LOT of work to do to put an end to what is increasingly looking like an Obama dominated election night!

After 8 years of Bush this is EXACTLY what I need!

reply to post by Animal


Animal,
We don't always agree, but it seems we share similar political leanings.

Thanks a lot for posting the map!

Starred & Flagged!

[edit on 27-7-2008 by Quazga]

things might be looking good for obama, but things are looking mighty sh----y for our country in general.

its ashame there is no catagory on that map for "none of the above"

from that electoral map, looks like the Democrats will make sizable gains in both Houses of Congress. But the Presidential result is going to be a little murkier. In the latest AOL Straw Poll, McCain is leading Obama by 65%-35% margin with 241,812 votes cast.

AOL Straw Poll

[edit on 7/28/2008 by coolieno99]

Oh boy just look at all the Red Fascist, and Blue Socialist states...

[edit on 28-7-2008 by Gateway]

reply to post by TheRepublic


there are people - EVERY ELECTION YEAR - who say the same thing.

Please. Get some new material

You can be happy with who you have th choose from, or you can't.

The choice is up to you, but the choices never change.


Learn to live with it and use it to your advantage, or dont. Just find a different way of saying how ya feel

Every polling website that uses statistical inference has Obama winning by a large margin at the moment.

FiveThirtyEight is easily the most in depth analysis website there is, they have numerous simulated scenarios with the probability of each one happening.

Electoral Vote draws up simulated electoral maps based on the most recent polls for each state and Obama has had a win by at least 20 delegates for virtually his entire campaign.

I know, it's actually looking like my guy is going to win for a change. Well, at least since I've been able to vote (2000 election). Obama was my favored candidate for the Dem nom since 2006 too, and I'm so glad he won it over Clinton. Obama actually seems like someone special, and I think he's getting that across. Hopefully he maintains his lead through the election.

its waaaay too early. Kerry and Gore were way out in front too. i will consider your analysis in September. But right now. No. Conventions havent happened yet and something big has not happened for McCain. Forget it.

His party is not yet united. I am warning you. When this happens. And when a VP is picked. most of the NA column is going to side with McCain. They are holding out right now. I listen to Right wing radio. Republican conservatives are waiting to be reached out too. So far McCain is snubbing them. Give it a month.




[edit on 28-7-2008 by soup_sandwich]

[edit on 28-7-2008 by soup_sandwich]

Well he seems to be the lesser of two evils, plus it would be nice if I could be out and still in the military...Obama's more likely to do that, so he's got my vote.

Originally posted by Dr. Frank Spinelli
Well he seems to be the lesser of two evils, plus it would be nice if I could be out and still in the military...Obama's more likely to do that, so he's got my vote.

This is what comes down too. From my myspace page. I hope im not violating any TOS here

The 2008 Presidential elections are similiar to say. If your standing in a pool full of piss neck deep and then somebody comes in with a bucket full of doo-doo. Do you you duck down in the piss or do you just stay up and take on the doo doo?
To Quote full metal jacket. Its just one big excrement sandwich. And everybodies gotta take a bite. Some times is has mayo or mustard, but today its plain. Sorry

Open wide up America!!




3rd party all the way.


edit- many edits for language changing
[edit on 28-7-2008 by soup_sandwich]

[edit on 28-7-2008 by soup_sandwich]

[edit on 28-7-2008 by soup_sandwich]

[edit on 28-7-2008 by soup_sandwich]

reply to post by Andrew E. Wiggin


So basically you are telling people who dont believe in the 2 party system to shut up. Hmm if you are happy where this country is going please by all means keep voting the 2 party dictatorship. But just because you choose to be a sheeple doesnt mean all of us have to. Im glad you had no part in the revolution. Andrew "Hey you will never change brittish rule here so shut up" heh I can see it now.

reply to post by mybigunit


I was not going to say a damn thing MBU .. didn't want to get warned. But it was the most asinine comment I have read in quite a while on ATS.. disgusting. People like Andrew who ruined this god forsaken country. "don't like it? tough, work with what you have, don't search a new solution" .. wish you could slap people across the internet..

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by mybigunit

 

I was not going to say a damn thing MBU .. didn't want to get warned. But it was the most asinine comment I have read in quite a while on ATS.. disgusting. People like Andrew who ruined this god forsaken country. "don't like it? tough, work with what you have, don't search a new solution" .. wish you could slap people across the internet..

I know its disgusting isnt it? The nerve of some people. Its odd because these same people will cry about the direction of the country and then go and vote for the very tools that put us here in the first place. Id laugh my butt off if this wasnt so damn important of a matter.

reply to post by Animal


I think he's definitely the favorite at this point and I'd probably give him about a 65% chance of
winning this election.

However, its not all sunshine and clear skies. There are several potential pitfalls for Barack Obama between now and election day. The most obvious is all of the media attention. The Dems are loving it, but in one clear way, it is backfiring on them. It has turned this election into a referendum on Barack Obama instead of George W. Bush. I'd give them a 90% chance of winning the latter and I think most would, so its already obvious how this change in focus has weighed against him. It is also insulating John McCain, simply because no one is paying attention to him, or his mistakes or attacks against him. As such, Obama will be increasingly under the microscope for the next few months, even more than the frontrunner is typically subjected to, while McCain will probably fly under the radar in the low 40s and stay well within striking distance until November. Note also that his ‘favorability’ ratings are virtually identical to those of Barack Obama. Clearly, McCain is not suffering from the ties to the GOP.

The next thing that could present a potential problem is the mood of the electorate. I know that sounds odd, but hear me out. We all know that there has been a huge liberal anti-Bush, anti-Republican tide out there. That seems to favor the Dems, but don't be so sure. Look at the polls...as is historically the case, up to 20% are still undecided. That's bad for Barack Obama. Very bad. Why? Every self-described liberal Democrat knows who they are voting for in this election. All of the liberal/Dem leaners, party affiliated or not, know who they're voting for. In both cases, it ain't John McCain! They're sick of Bush and the Republican party. The result? Its very likely that the undecided pool has already largely been drained of liberals and those who identify more with that ideology. Again, they know they’re voting for Obama. The remaining group is very likely to be mildly conservative (they tend to be anyway; it'll likely be more so this year) and to identify more with the Republican party.

Now that does not mean that Obama can't win that group, simply that on ideology, McCain will have a significant built-in advantage. However, this is why some commentators have said that if Obama can’t break into something resembling a significant lead, John McCain may very well
win this election. There's a good chance that they will break 55-60% for John McCain.

In a related fashion, this is also why high spring turnout can be misleading. The Dems turned out over 35 million primary voters. That's good because it shows their enthusiasm both for their candidates and against the sitting administration. However, it comes with a downside.
Considering how contentious it has been, one has to wonder: Is that all they've got??? In other words, have they already burned through all of the anti-Bush and anti-Republican sentiment in the country? Obama still likely has to come up with at least 30 million more votes, and that's assuming he can keep Hillary's voters in his column, which is looking increasingly problematic. Speaking of which, could the vote drive backfire, given the mass of Hillary supporters now angry and vowing to vote McCain? Is the longstanding ideological divide between traditional 'Reagan' Democrats in the heartland and the liberal wing of the party found mostly in the cities finally going to erupt in a party civil war?

And finally, can he weather the storm of 527 attacks that will occur in the final 6-8 weeks? John Kerry, the leader all through July and August of ‘04, failed to do so. Those who think thatMcCain has been harsh and unfair...you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Fair? No. Reality? Yes.

Again, none of this is to say that he *won’t* win, but that its far from a done-deal and he also faces a tough challenge over the next few months.

reply to post by Andrew E. Wiggin


oh whats the matter? your upset some people dont like your cult puppet leader? cant handel an intellectual perspective? want more pep rally politics?

ok here goes:
!!RAH RAH obamas our man if he cant do it no one can!!!

you make me ill
congradulations on making my "most ignorant people on ATS" list.

maybe if youd open your eyes youd see obama is a tool. just like mccain.
people who believe in the two party system are fools. the two party system is everything thats wrong in this country. every year "we get to choose" from one of two globalist a--holes, and every year this country gets sh---tier and sh---tier. you cant get me to shut up. you cant silence me. i will be in everylast obama mccain thread saying what i feel, and if you dont like it TOO BAD!!!

fine enjoy choosing which gun youd like to shoot yourself in the face with.
you can use the red gun or the blue gun. savor your choice! enjoy it!

HOPE YES WE CAN! YAY! THE KOOLAIDE TASTES DELICIOUSSSSS!!!!

you keep on denying ignorance hoss

reply to post by TheRepublic


I agree with this, we are screwed no matter what with either of these two. I just happen to think its goin to be faster with a Dem president like Obama with a Dem congress to help shove everything right along.

That is unless your a leech and love to take advantage of the system, every other working man and woman in the country is pretty much finished before long.

But good for Obama for things looking so good for him at our expense....

I'm voting Obama just to piss off the repubs. . I may think there both evil . But the conservatives are just disgusting.

Originally posted by d11_m_na_c05
I may think there both evil .

Speaking as a conservative, it does not anger me at all. You're the one who has to live with your vote believing that about the candidate you chose, not I.

reply to post by vor78


Well you may just get a "i told you so moment" But at least it will be my screw up this time . Anyway . I'm a socialist. I don't see the same things as evil that you do .

Heck my first choice for prez was repub ron paul . Hoping he would have got backed by Denis k . So I'm not afraid to fail/vote across party lines.