Australia may have to choose: China or US

Australia may have to choose: China or US

www.news.com.au

AUSTRALIA'S close military ties to the US could compromise our security unless we also embrace a rapidly growing China.

An independent study released yesterday said that, if tensions between the global superpower, the US, and the pretender to that crown,China, boiled over, Australia could be drawn into a conflict for all the wrong reasons.

It also concluded that Australia's South-East Asian neighbours would pose no direct threat for "decades to come".

The latest strategic insight from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) painted a disturbing picture of a regional arms build-up led by China and its neighbour India.

"Were great power relations in the Asia Pacific to deteriorate, there would be the potential for our alliance with the US to embroil us in periods of tension or even conflict," the report said.

While it did not define it as an "arms race" the report, written by senior analyst Andrew Davies, showed that total regional military might, not including Russia and the US, amounted to more than 8 million troops, 24,275 tanks, 6486 aircraft, 356 warships and 195 submarines.

China was the dominant player with 2.1 million troops, 7600 tanks, 2550 combat planes, 75 warships and 62 submarines.

Its defence spending had risen four-fold during the past decade while India, second with 1.3 million troops, 4500 tanks and 48 warships, had doubled its defence budget.

The next biggest armies were fielded by North Korea with 1.1 million troops and 3000 tanks and Pakistan - 640,000 soldiers and 2400 tanks.

There were almost 2 million troops in South-East Asia and if the US and Russia were added the total figure jumped to more than 10.5 million.

Australia was by far the smallest, with just 54,000 troops, 138 combat planes, 12 warships and six submarines (three operational) although it remained the biggest defence spender in the South-East Asian region.

The Government will release a defence White Paper early next year. Its central theme will be dealing with the rise of China.

(visit the link for the full news article)

When you get to the end of this article you see what we have here in Australia. Its scary compared to the rest of the world.

www.news.com.au
(visit the link for the full news article)

Especially scary if you throw the various country's guerilla fighters into the mix. I believe China has somewhere close to 4 million and Iran's entire Basij is over 11 million available troops. We've actually got around 3 million in the states (regardless of what the official word is, you can't separate active duty from the reserves in our country anymore. They're all basically at the President's beck and call.) Nobody will ever catch China in troop numbers if there's ever a war with them, though. They could go mandatory conscripted service and have a couple hundred million troops in the blink of an eye... many of them would be fighting with rice paddy tools and wearing farmer's clothes, but they'd still be military.

This comment struck me as odd:

There were almost 2 million troops in South-East Asia and if the US and Russia were added the total figure jumped to more than 10.5 million.

So, the US and Russia make up over 8.5 million men between them? Don't believe that for a moment.

The nature of a US-China conflict would be entirely different from anything we have ever seen in history! We all (they and us) flatter ourselves into thinking that our tactics and strategy are en par with the technology. Trust me they are not.

Two giants prodding and poking each other from a distance.... killing on an instantaneous scale, no drawn out battles...

I believe Lincoln was correct when he stated:

"At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume I, "Address Before the Young Men's Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois (January 27, 1838), p. 109.

I suspect any commitment of ground forces would be suicide for both forces.

Of course, scenarios involving 'allies' could take a much more conventional form; although I doubt it. In a 'true war' between China and the US, no other nation could participate without risking utter ruin.

I think you will understand that by voting in a Cantonese Speaking Prime Minister ( KRudd ) the Australian people have shown that we have tired of the US's never ending policy of war's and more war's.

reply to post by leearco


Well, I did my homework, I called my seven Aussie friends in the US and it was unanimous: They all chose Pattaya!
I think they should all move to Greece just to complete the circle of irony.

Australia's current position is to try to be the go-between guy between the US and China.

We're already deeply militarily tied with the US. But we're also deeply tied economically with China - I think that's best way to swing it for now.

China needs the US to buy all the stuff it makes, so I don't think China will be looking to annoy anyone just yet.

A hundred years down the track though, who knows. Since Australia has little hard military power without the US, we could probably even see nuclear silos to go along with the Echelon receivers at Pine Gap if we can't fight conventionally.

Interesting indeedy.

I like this in the first paragraph:
An independent study released yesterday said that, if tensions between the global superpower, the US, and the pretender to that crown,China, boiled over

HA! An independent but Biased study it would seem.
Kinda lost me there i gotta say.

I have to ask the question though, why does Australia have to choose? I think we get along well with both countries.

Australia was by far the smallest, with just 54,000 troops, 138 combat planes, 12 warships and six submarines (three operational) although it remained the biggest defence spender in the South-East Asian region.

Holy hell , i wasn't aware that we only had the above figures!!!

New York has something like 36,000 police officers. (from WIKI)
Just to put it in perspective.

And John Howard disarmed the general population. Bravo

Originally posted by mazzroth
I think you will understand that by voting in a Cantonese Speaking Prime Minister ( KRudd ) the Australian people have shown that we have tired of the US's never ending policy of war's and more war's.

Exactly right

Australia-China relationships have never been so stable in my opinion. Personally I if conflict did arise between the US and China, I would like us to avoid getting involved for once

And whats the whole thing with everyone (mostly the americans) slagging off China? Is this a democracy/ communism thing or what?

Originally posted by mazzroth


And whats the whole thing with everyone (mostly the americans) slagging off China? Is this a democracy/ communism thing or what?

I think it's more of the 'pretender to the crown' thing. No one likes to be raped and told they're going to enjoy it, which is just what China is doing to the US.

[edit on 7/4/2008 by sc2099]

Interesting how "we" may have to choose between the US and China. Kevin Rudd will choose whoever he's told to choose. And not by us, the people...

i doubt anything will eventuate, majority of countries econemies are tied up in other countries that one country gets shirty it can cause problems globally, US buys alot of chinese imports, china relies heavily on Australias resource exports, if china was to get either countries dander in a huff it could potentially cause a fair bit of instability.

just my 2c

reply to post by leearco


choose China the next super power with a booming econemy

or

choose the united states with Job cuts and a declining econemy

if the australians were smart would they go for a country that can bennifit them econemywise or one that would just bring them down?

hard to choose

reply to post by NuclearPaul

In all fairness to Rudd he will have all Australian troops out of Iraq by the end of this month and concentrate on the real fight Afghanistan,I believe China being closer and in the direct region it is vital that it is at the forefront of Australian foreign policy,not to say the USA is not important as there is a large US investment in Australia,but Australia should end its habit of being deputy dog to the USA and choose its wars more carefully as for the USA vs China its best position is possibly neutral.

'I serve for the pleasure of the president'.
Colin Powell.
A ringing bell at the door. I'd suggest listening to 'Politcal Science' by Randy Newman.
Political Science
by Randy Newman
No one likes us-I don't know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try
But all around, even our old friends put us down
Let's drop the big one and see what happens

We give them money-but are they grateful?
No, they're spiteful and they're hateful
They don't respect us-so let's surprise them
We'll drop the big one and pulverize them

Asia's crowded and Europe's too old
Africa is far too hot
And Canada's too cold
And South America stole our name
Let's drop the big one
There'll be no one left to blame us

We'll save Australia
Don't wanna hurt no kangaroo
We'll build an All American amusement park there
They got surfin', too

Boom goes London and boom Paree
More room for you and more room for me
And every city the whole world round
Will just be another American town
Oh, how peaceful it will be
We'll set everybody free
You'll wear a Japanese kimono
And there'll be Italian shoes for me

They all hate us anyhow
So let's drop the big one now

reply to post by OzWeatherman


Well said OZ

Why do we have to send our troops to some war that we did not start or want Our relationship with both countrys is looking good From the out side so why pick a side ?? No matter what side you help your going to tick some one off

I have a great thought GEEEE why don't both countrys look after it's own people Rather than sticking it's nose in where it's not wanted
A world with out war That would be nice Maybe in 2000 years if we last that long