Global Economic Crash Late July!

are you being sarcastic or serious?

because all of those symbols that ive looked at so far, paint a very dismil future.

they have all bottomed out.

reply to post by jefwane


Are saying it's a bad thing, or a good thing? I don't understand markets that much.

Look at alot of my posts over the past 9 months. I've been SCREAMING that BBBs (Big Banks and Brokers) are essentially bankrupt. Many of the names on that list I've held puts against. Some may be bottoming but many still have further to fall. I didn't include any brokers on that list either. We are on the precipice of something not seen since the 30's if even then.

(the only part that was sarcastic was the part about sleeping well)

[edit on 18-6-2008 by jefwane]

reply to post by dingleberry77


I'm saying it's the way it is. Financials have been beaten down for very good reasons over the past nine months. They over leveraged, lent to poor quality borrowers, and then securitized and sold that paper to whoever would buy it, and get this, they often represented the risk as comparable to US treasuries. When all this started, the FED started to push a little used facility called the "discount window" that had historically been available but taboo to be seen using. This wasn't enough so they created different facilities that would allow various institutions to bring collateral ( of no one but the FED knows quality) in exchange for the FED's treasuries. This has (in my uneducated opinion) impaired the FED's balance sheet (that they use to defend the Fed funds rate )and risks contaminating US treasury notes, bills, and bonds. The implications of this are dark and disturbing.

Something to ponder, if the banks go under, what good will a job do? Our paychecks are direct deposited into the bank. The company's money is in the bank. The company my husband works for is a military contractor. He probably won't lose his job, but where is his pay going to come from? And to where or whom will it go?

darkelf

Cash is king - cancel that direct deposit and start cashing your checks at the window once a week (or once every two weeks).

This crash has been in the works for years,the NWO is going to use this to start thier global population decrease,we are talkin about,bread lines,prison camps and marshall law,here y'all all in the name of "Law and Order."

[edit on 18-6-2008 by mike dangerously]

Op you did a splendid job this time!

We have been planning this for some time yet it still feels like a wake up call when you see this kind of thread.

What concerns me is the crazy weather and the tainted food supplies.

Our prices will soar if for no other reason than that.

Buy durable clothing, camping gear, hunting equipment, any supplies you can easily move with. Abandon your miserable lives and run away into the world and be free. Unfortunately a large percentage of nature has already been destroyed so there arent as many good places to run away to. If you can organize and travel with a large number of other well organized survivalists you could start your own little commune where everyone works to help everyone else improve their way of life. Forget about money and government and all the BS and just live free or die hard. Thats what we should all do.

If people could organize a Jonestown sort of place only without going mad with power and becoming a tyrannical cult, then you would be set. Of course everyone would have to help build the houses and to grow the food but thats exactly whats wrong with our society, nobody wants to provide for themselves the bare essentials of survival, they want it delivered to them in a shiny plastic container in a minute or less, like lazy idiots overflowing from their clothing from decades of gluttony.

Anyone who has played Bioshock will know where Im going with this quote "I am Andrew Ryan, and I'm here to ask you a question. Is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow? 'No!' says the man in Washington, 'It belongs to the poor.' 'No!' says the man in the Vatican, 'It belongs to God.' 'No!' says the man in Moscow, 'It belongs to everyone.' I rejected those answers; instead, I chose something different. I chose the impossible. I chose... Rapture, a city where the artist would not fear the censor, where the scientist would not be bound by petty morality, Where the great would not be constrained by the small! And with the sweat of your brow, Rapture can become your city as well. "

I would say that our economy is definitely heading toward a depression, but I would not put my 'money' on it happening this year.

Reasons.... the market is at an extremely low interest rate. This means that the 'cost' of money is very low and the market will exhibit very high amounts of liquidity. This liquidity will give us a temporal buffer for our market to adapt. What I and many of my peers and experts on the subject believe is that the TECH market expand beyond what has been previously thought. It will, in essence, deliver us from panic, but it will drastically change the labor markets.
Our economy is changing.
I do not hold the opinion that it will 'crash' but it will seem really bad at first, then turn out good(errr better). The credit market is not at its breaking point as of yet, and our national debt is not even as bad compared to historical data. LINK. It's bad, but it has to get worse.

It will get worse, but it won't get as bad as many of the chicken little's here (no offense meant) say it will this year.

Here is a good point below....

When mainstream economists begin to sound like an average Above Top Secret contributor, then you know we're headed for hell.

When mainstream economists sound like ATS members, ATS members need to think about why they are saying these things. If the MSM insights panic, it will make the average American more dependent on its government, whereas when the ATS member says these things he/she has no intention on leading people toward government dependency.
This is the reason the MSM sounds like us..... they are using our rhetoric AGAINST us.

If mainstream media people are saying the same thing as the ATS person (an abstraction meaning ALL OF US), maybe the ATS person needs to take a better look at what they are saying. Could it be DisInfo?
more later....

I work for my State's government.

My agency actually produces the revenue the state sqaunders.

I have more than a decade of seniority. I'm by no means rich, and probably not completely "protected" from what is to come, but...

I know that if I lose my job, it's because the fifth largest economy in the World has gone belly-up, and that hand-basket to Hell will be looking like a limo to Paradise!

All this is to say that I really think we may be on an economic Titanic, and sombody just yelled


"Iceberg! Dead ahead!"

Great thread...

I remember having dinner with a Executive from Ford... he told me all this crap was coming down the pipeline ...in 1999...

Yeah...

I am glad I listened..

I am glad you are all listening..

So here is a Movie for you to all enjoy.

Google Video Link

reply to post by DINSTAAR

I notice that your link uses data provided by the whitehouse.gov. I've grown to at minimum distrust and mostly discount government data recently, especially in regards to inflation and employment. IMHO there is only so long that AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG can hold up the Nasdaq. Certainly there is something to be said about how the weak dollar has helped certain tech companies compensate for weak domestic sales with overseas revenue (think IBM, HPQ, and Cisco). However as this global recession starts to kick in or the dollar strengthens those earnings will poof.

The current low interest rate environment is only a result of the FED's decision to save its buddies at the expense of the dollar and our future. The FED is almost at its limit in its abillity to defend the FFR with its impaired balance sheet. There are currently some stirrings in the bond market that are ominous on future interest rates. The IRX(short term) and TNX(10 yr) have been behaving oddly over the past couple of weeks. I remember a couple of days where both the stock and bond market rallied. Typically they are inverse to each other. The FED has already stopped rolling its short term treasuries, and there are rumors that foreign govts aren't buying treasuries at auction like they used to. Should we see a bond market dislocation we could see a rapid rise in the 10 year ( which is what most mortgages and corporate debt is based off of). Should concerns over the US's abillity to repay it's debts ( after a bailout of FNM/FRE for example) we would quickly be in a world of hurt.

I initially thought that the FED would be able to hold up the markets and economy through the election, but they've blown through thier balance sheet so quickly I think the crash may happen this year. There is currently a confirmed hindy on the clock so we could see a market crash in the next few months.


[edit on 18-6-2008 by jefwane]

This link really needs no lead in or explanation - it's stark.

cryptogon.com...

However, I have to add that in the entire time I have read this blog, I have always found the information synthesis to be accurate and measured. I never felt that Flaherty was exaggerating whatsoever.

That's what has me so concerned.

There are ways to fix this you know. Even though this could happen, I really doubt, and hope, that it does not. For one, this article is about fear mongering, thus helping the cause. However, another article posted by another member talked about how this particular RBS member was still buying stocks, especially in oil and emerging markets; he was just being more selective now.

To the poster who wanted to know if spending money on the war would help the market, the simple answer is no. The government could use this money to do other things, such as keep social security around or improve the public school systems of the country. The government really does not, and I do not think, that they can buy stocks. I am not 100% positive but fairly close. That would just inflate the value of stocks which would just keep a false sense of well being. I would not mind my stocks going up, but not by that means.

Many complain about the Bear Stern take over, I included, however, I keep hearing over and over again that if that "take over" had not of happend, billions upon billions would have been lost and you would have a situation which is predicted here. The more important thing is that the Fed should not cut rates anymore as this has already lead to stocks continuing to be overvalued. My stocks, all of them, and I know this are overvalued. I will lose probably half of their value before things settle, however, I would rather of had that happen then to keep extending this economic futility.

The most important thing to quell the oil concern, and Congress can do this, is to not allow speculation in it by individuals. The Dallas Morning News had in article in the Business section about this recently. This market is really for companies to either win or lose at buying oil and other items likewise. An example of this is how Southwest Airlines was winning this bet; which is why they could turn out profit quarter after quarter.

The strengthening of the dollar would also help this concern about this problem. I'm not totally sure how this can be done, besides going to a gold standard, but it would drop the price of oil significantly. This is a main reason why oil prices are as high as they are. I can only speculate, but I'm sure Bush is getting many millions in secret kick backs from these giant oil companies. There is plenty of oil, do not let them fool you on that.

So in all, the problem can be fixed. Credit is just part of the problem. People do not know how to use it; some people think a credit card is like cash-it is not. The banks and lenders are just as much to blame, but instead of spreading gloom and doom, why not try to find a fix to the problem?

I just did a quick reality check in my head,

What happens if I go to sleep tonight, ( Being Perth is the opposite time frame for America )

I wake up 9am for work, turn on the radio and hear the words

'' Significant events unfolded today on the NYSE, as the DOW plummeted to a 80yr low. Crisis hit major banks as financial shares all but disolved as people all over America decended for a run on the banks. The President will be making a public address at 7:00pm tonight to address the situation. Oil jumped $39.00 to close almost at $170.00 a barrel as major fighting broke out in Basra while massive bomb explosions crippled saudi's output production. Police and national guard have been deployed across supermarkets and banks as its feared people will start using force to secure money and food in what looks like the darkest day in American history ''


Here I am, shocked at exactly what i must face today.
I open my wallet, $45.00.
I open the cupboard, maybe a weeks food if im lucky.
I turn on my car, its half full.

What do I do?
Do I go to work?
No, I must head to the bank.

If indeed financial shares have plummeted, Australia will surely drop the second the market opens.

I head to the ATM, but its already emtpy.

'' Insufficient funds for that process please use another ATM ''

I arrive at the bank, there's a line about 100 people long.
Finally the doors open, the first 20 people go through, it takes hours.
They are obviously removing every $ from their accounts.
I see a sign being erected at the door

'' Bank closed, out of funds ''

I head to my next bank, and only 4 minutes after I line up behind another few 100 people, another sign is erected

'' Bank closed until further notice ''

Its happening, the banks have run out of money.

The people look worried.

Its obvious to see panic is setting in.

How are they going to feed their children next week?

How are they going to get to work?

Do they even have a job?

So now what do I do?


...

I can tell you what im doing..


Im withdrawing $5000.00 cash and hiding it in a safe,
and im buying $1000.00 worth of canned food and water.

IF I never need it, atleast I know ill have it incase.

reply to post by duffster


We in Alaska would especially be cold, especially since in winter many of us depend on fuel-oil to survive. My neighbor across the street has already filled his entire front yard with cut logs ready to go. People are preparing for this, there is no doubt. It's definately disconcerting if nothing else..

-ChriS

[edit on 19-6-2008 by BlasteR]

I have been posting on forums for about ten years, some of my post on the NYTimes forums might still be available. This is what I have seen coming since 2002. I figured the housing crisis could continue until 2006 or 2007 at the most, if the lenders pulled out all the stop to keep the housing bubble going, which is what they did. I didn't know when oil would peaked, I guessed no until maybe 2012 at the latest, so that is worse than my original predictions. If the market was valued with the drop of the dollar in consideration, people would see that we have been held in a bear market throughout this decade.

The next few years are going to be rough, but not really much worse than they are already are. Banks can't go taking everyone's property, because they will loose all of their income and completely collapse, and any entity that tries to grab up property is going to have to put out a lot of money for security. Lenders will be much better re-negotiating loans, to keep money flowing in. U.S. industry has been stripped down to bare bones for a while now, it will be China, which produces the largest amount of stuff that we don't really need, which will be hit the hardest.

Retiring boomers are going to run into serious problems. Now is not a good time to be retiring. Still, who winds up owing who will be very hard to determine.

After the next few years, when things began to sort themselves out, and we start having to retool after the end of cheap oil, there will be tremendous job creation, because all the new energy sources will be far more labor intensive. This means good economic conditions for the working people of the world after we get through the next few years.

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
I just did a quick reality check in my head,
I can tell you what im doing..


Im withdrawing $5000.00 cash and hiding it in a safe,
and im buying $1000.00 worth of canned food and water.

IF I never need it, atleast I know ill have it incase.

You forgot something important. You better get a gun and bullets because you're going to be overrun by people who didn't buy canned food, don't have water, and would be happy to slit your throat to get yours.

Or...

Maybe this is all just part of the NWO's scare tactics just to make you feel so relieved when the government takes over the oil companies to "stabilize" prices.

There will bo no global collapse (although the US will probably go into recession due to the petro-dollar) but there will certainly be a shift in the way the economy functions. Some companies, especially banks, will shrink and collapse but others will take their place. It is already happening here in Scotland but no-one on the BBC has noticed...yet. House prices in Scotland are still rising people still want mortgages and there are banks still lending. However those banks DO NOT source their cash from the US. All banks who used US credit are losing business very fast to those banks who didn't. Watch out for the Irish banks!

Food and fuel will rise BUT, HUGE BUT, HUGE HUGE REMINDER : food and fuel is still, even after the recent rises, lower in real terms than it was 30 years ago. Stop panicking, stop listening to idiotic headline grabbing press. And most certainly stop listening to "rich experts" who are nothing of the sort. If they were they would be no credit crunch DUH!

We currently live in a throwaway soceity where goods are replaced frequently rather than repaired and re-used as my parents generation did. That change in society will change the way the economy functions. Instead of masses of retailers constantly increasing sales you will end up with more repair services, self reliance, secondhand shops etc. Of course the retailers will be screaming recession, the press will help make that voice louder and the shallow people who only have 20 designer outlets to choose from instead of 40 will be panicking!

Rapid change is on they way but not collapse.

I mean things are just so obvious: If petrol doubles in value then use half as much! You can do this by travelling less by car, a smaller car, walk the mile to the shops instead of driving etc etc Don't buy a new TV with all the gizmos as soon as it comes out but wait until your existing TV breaks. I guarantee the majority of people reading this have thrown out a perfectly good working order TV to replace it with a larger LCD variety! I have !!!!