Many historians see little chance for McCain

news.yahoo.com...

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

I'm going with the guy who has succsessfully predicted the last six elections

I wonder if McCains camp with acknowledge this article?

reply to post by kleverone


Agreed, unless something drastic happens and McCain manages to prove himself by trial of fire.

Which wouldn't surprise me, considering it's the Republicans.

I'm not sure what they could do short of allowing another attack on America, impose martial law, and then stop the elections all together. I doubt this will happen but I would not be surprised if it did.

I personaly think that McCain doesn't have a prayer, but that is simply because people are tired of Republicans in the house more than it has to do with McCain himself.

reply to post by kleverone


Oh no, i'm just talking about some sort of low level national crisis, like a flood or a hurricane, where he can converse with the locals about happier times and assign a work force with his campaign money (if he has any by that point).

If he's lucky, Obama may choose to visit a foreign country as a sign of self-assured security, which would give him room to expand his influence.

But that more or less wraps it up for his options, he can choose to wait, or wait.

Maybe he'll start bullying Obama!

Indeed...

That does not mean we can just lie back and act like someone else is going to take care of it..

This is our fight...and our responsibility.

We have to elbow up and get it won.

Way too much is at stake to be apathetic.

This is hand and hand to explaining the desperation seen on the right side of the aisle ...They know McCain is at best Lack luster and primative, with the back bone of a night crawler..and I am sure they can smell the meat locker of skeletons in that mans closet...

Which also explains Barack Obama talking about bringing a gun to the knife fight.

I really think McCain's best strategy would be to continue to distance himself from the Bush administration, and take a more moderate stance on the issues.

For the most part America has grown weary of Republican rule, as is ready for a change in leadership.

reply to post by kleverone


I'd have to look at his model. The blue and red states that are in play favor McCain more so than Obama. Plus, you have to remember that Obama, regardless of his "change" mantra won't resonate much beyond the core Democratic base. He is, after all the Senator with the most liberal voting record. Believe me, you will hear that repeated so often that everone will know it.

I have a sneaky feeling that McCain is going to do better in the debates and the the Republican Party will be doing more to shape the overall debate than the Democrats will. Plus add jilted Clintons to the mix and Obama has a lot to deal with.

Obama's relative inexperience will do him in.

reply to post by pavil


You make some really good points, especially about the disgruntled Clintons. Great Observations.

From the OP's original article:

Campbell still casts McCain as the underdog. But he said McCain might have more appeal to moderates than Obama if the electorate decides McCain is “center right” while Obama is “far left.” Democrats have been repeatedly undone when their nominee was viewed as too liberal, and even as polls show a rise in the number of self-identified Democrats, there has been no corresponding increase in the number of self-identified liberals.

Don't think the Republican party won't paint Obama like that. It's actually going to be pretty easy to do, since Obama is on the left, if not far left, of his party.