Ionospheric Density: Is this the future of quake prediction? (China Quake)

Prior to the recent China quake, there were pre-cursors which (if heeded) may have given warning of the impending disaster.


Source

Taipei - A Taiwan satellite recorded a sharp drop in ionospheric density above China's Sichuan Province before Monday's killer earthquake, verifying previous records that seismic activities affect ionospheric density, a newspaper said Friday.

The China Times said that Taiwan's Formosa-3 satellite recorded that in the six to 15 days before the May 12 earthquake in Sichuan, the ionospheric density in the atmosphere about 1,000 square kilometres around Wenchuan, epicentre of the quake, was 1.2 million electrically charged particles.

On May 11, the eve of the quake, the ionospheric density over Sichuan had dropped by half to 600,000 charged particles.

Formosa-3 was launched by the Taiwan National Space Organization in 2006.

Since then, Formosa-3 has recorded ionospheric density after 63 earthquakes measuring magnitude 5 or above on the Richter scale, revealing a sharp drop in ionosphere density in 70 per cent of these cases.

A question: if China is aware of such a correlation between ionospheric density and quakes, and it was monitoring the ionosphere at the time, why did it not alert it's people?

On to the topic. The first correlations between quakes and the ionosphere date back to 1964 and the Good Friday Alaska quake.

Source

The history of seismo-ionospheric coupling studies has passed through several stages starting from astonishment after initial discovery, enthusiastic but often speculative publications, and defeat by severe critics, to ultimately consecutive and systematic studies which have led to a substantiated physical model.

It is commonly accepted that the Good Friday Alaska earthquake on March 27 of 1964 gave seismo-ionospheric coupling studies its initial impetus. Among many publications describing the electromagnetic and ionospheric phenomena associated withthis earthquake, one can find at least two, where pre-earthquake effects were mentioned (Moore1964; Davies and Baker 1965).

And more recent findings (as presented in this 2004 paper):

9. CONCLUSION

The present paper accumulates recent advances in understanding of the physical mechanism of seismo-ionospheric coupling and some practical applications developed recently for short-term earthquake prediction using ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.

Special attention is attracted to the connection between thermal anomalies and latent surface heat flux variations associated with the process of earthquake preparation and the presented model of seismo-ionospheric coupling.

The most probable connection is provided by plasma-chemical processes in the troposphere that involve latent heat and water molecule attachment to ions produced by radon ionization. The model explains the interconnection of different electro-magnetic precursors of earthquakes and build a precursor hierarchy.

As presented, the concept of an earthquake preparation zone joins geophysical and geochemical precursors with iono-spheric precursors of earthquakes showing that the latter belong to the same family and should be regarded by seismology equally. Advantages and disadvantages are regarded concerning different techniques of ionospheric monitoring in relation to ionospheric precursor registration.

The main and probably most important conclusion lies in the fact that the level of our present knowledge of ionospheric precursors of earthquake permits us to use them already in short-term earthquake prediction at least in the testing regime demonstrated in the last paragraph.

It will be very interesting to see where this science takes us. While there may never be an absolute when it comes to earthquake prediction, there seem to be ample methods for at least giving us a warning.

For the technically inclined, the following links will provide a hardcore look at the science behind this process:

Ionospheric Precursers to Earthquakes: Recent Advances in Theory and Practical Applications (PDF)

Atmospheric and thermal anomolies observed around the time of strong earthquakes in Mexico (PDF)

Flagged & starred, pretty intriguing, although I am not particularly technically inclined.

I'm assuming HAARP or any other thing capable of messing with the ionosphere was not around in 1964? So we can assume this drop recorded in the ionosphere before EQ's is naturally caused, a bonafide EQ precursor...?

(Plan for quake 'warning system')
digg.com...

"NASA scientists have said they could be on the verge of a breakthrough in their efforts to forecast earthquakes.

Researchers say they have found a close link between electrical disturbances on the edge of our atmosphere and impending quakes on the ground below.

Just such a signal was spotted in the days leading up to the recent devastating event in China."

Ooh, this has shades of Electric Universe written all over it...

Reminds me of a series of articles I read once upon a time:

(Earth: A Self-repairing Capacitor)
thunderbolts.info...

(Seeing Circuits [1])
thunderbolts.info...

(Electric Space Weather Baffles Scientists)
thunderbolts.info...

(Sunspots and Earthquakes)
thunderbolts.info...

Again, very interesting...

One is also tempted to point out the science of Magnetotellurics as it bears on the study of telluric currents (Earth currents):

(Wikipedia: Magnetotellurics)
en.wikipedia.org...

(Wikipedia: Telluric current)
en.wikipedia.org...

Cheers,
~Michael Gmirkin

Additional resources I just turned up from Silobreaker.com:

(Taiwan satellite records change in ionosphere before Sichuan quake)
www.earthtimes.org...

(Earthquake prediction from space is more accurate)
www.hindu.com...

(Earthquakes are best predicted from space)
en.rian.ru...

Cheers,
~Michael

In the thread about earthquakes and the radioactive nature of the rubble / disaster area this was comment on by myself because this technology IS NOT NEW.

It was classified because of its ability to be used as a means to detect in real time the effects of underground nuclear tests as they disturbed the ionesphere because of the acoustic they generate and the way it effected the charged particles.

Think on this though.

If an earth quake makes the ionesphere shift and become less dense... what they hell does a strong focused HAARP beam do when it lifts and rarifies the ionesphere to the ground below it and sub-ground levels ?

Thanks MG, that should keep me busy reading for awhile...

It's a good question Dan, I am leaning heavily toward HAARP being capable of causing quakes, it's just too bad that reliable information is so difficult to come by.

Originally posted by SystemiK
Thanks MG, that should keep me busy reading for awhile...

It's a good question Dan, I am leaning heavily toward HAARP being capable of causing quakes, it's just too bad that reliable information is so difficult to come by.

Well, if the EU view of Earth as a "leaky" spherical capacitor with terra and upper atmosphere acting as opposite plates in a capacitor discharge is accurate, then unfortunately, I'd probably have to agree that HAARP (if it can be used to modify the atmosphere's charged particle concentrations in the right way) could be used in that manner. A scary thought.

Further study required, I suppose?

Perhaps these article re: space weather and/or charged bodies might also have a bearing (they seem kind of like flip sides of the same argument; comets heading toward the sun vs. CME's heading toward Earth)...

(Comet Neat and CME's)
thunderbolts.info...

(Electric Space Weather Baffles Scientists)
thunderbolts.info...

~Michael

[edit on 5-6-2008 by mgmirkin]

reply to post by mgmirkin



Have to agree with you on this one. HAARP has too many unanswered questions surrounding it to make me believe 'all is well ans peace loving' at their establishment.

Raising parts of the ionesphere so that satellites slam into once empty space is a very naughty thing to do.

hi there

Excellent thread sytemik,

thanks for the interesting links, ......
and yes i too have always thought that HAARP could alter the ionsphere to the point that it can affect the ground beneath.

snoopyuk

Thanks for the info Systemik, as an advocate of electric universe theory it's something I'm familiar with but I'm not very well read on the subject.

The Earth is a charged body moving through the solar plasma, I believe one day we'll realize that many geological effects such as earthquakes, volcanism and even the weather are the result of cascading cause and effects originating from this electrical interaction.

And thanks as well to MG for the links.

reply to post by SystemiK

I'm the author of cited papers and can say, that Ionospheric and thermal precursors - is the future of earthquake prediction.

On can find more publications at my site:

pulse1549.hut2.ru...

at the section "Publications"

The book on Ionospheric precursor of earthquakes could be found at:

books.google.ru...=onepage&q&f=false

Thank you

Hey there, there's a couple of people who foudn the disturbances int he magnetometer on HAARP based right aruond this time.. check out the thread
www.abovetopsecret.com...
and the HAARP link
137.229.36.30...
You just have to go back to the date you want and you can see the differences. Right now its insane and going on like that since the 11th.. interesting stuff!!