‘Perhaps 60% of Today’s Oil Price is Pure Speculation’

oil has nose-dived from nearly 150 to 113 and people may be wondering why.

look at this chart

quotes.ino.com...

ignore the pundits saying demand this , supply that. those are the little things which WHEN the trend is down , become all the more ammunition for SPECULATORS. or when the trend is up, become all the more ammuniation for the speculators.

But the underlying reason as always, is the dollar, and the dollar is soaring lately (as the chart shows) , the trend in the dollar (thank to the enourmous amout of speculation) causes rapid price changes in the cost per barrell. perhaps this will be understood now

reply to post by cpdaman


www.webofdebt.com...

The Fed is pumping Money in and so is Israel to prop up the Dollar.
Another reason is Global enomony is slowing and the Euro is dropping
os the balance is shifting back to the dollar.

Not good either way.............

Found an article where a study was actually done to determine if speculation was/is now a driving force for oil prices.

Study Blames Speculation for Oil's Rise

Speculation by large investors -- and not supply and demand for oil -- were a primary reason for the surge in oil prices during the first half of the year and the more recent price declines, an independent study concluded Wednesday.

The report by Masters Capital Management said investors poured $60 billion into oil futures markets during the first five months of the year as oil prices soared from $95 a barrel in January to $145 a barrel by July.

Since then, these investors have withdrawn $39 billion from those markets as prices have retreated dramatically, the report said. Oil traded at just under $1.02 a barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

I'm just glad the prices are starting to come down.

"We have clear evidence the fund flow pushed prices up and the fund flow pushed prices down," said Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management, calling the amount of money moving into oil futures markets by large institutional investors in the early part of the year "way off the scale."

Masters said its analysis shows investors "began a massive stampede for the exits" on July 15 and that this caused the price decline.

And now for the "good" that MIGHT come out from this study!

The report was released Wednesday by House and Senate sponsors of bills to put additional curbs on oil market speculation and comes in advance of a report on oil market speculation expected possibly this week by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. The commission regulates commodity markets.

Finally?

"The CFTC has its head in the sand," said Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., chairman of the House Energy and Commerce investigations subcommittee.

Stupak said the Masters report shows that that oil prices soared when speculators poured money into future markets even as the federal Energy Information Administration was forecasting supply would exceed demand.
*****SKIP*****
Legislation before the Senate would put limits on the amount of oil certain traders, interested only in speculation, would be allowed to purchase in futures markets and give new authorities and staff to the CFTC to regulate oil markets.

FINALLY?

Well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see about that!

I actually don't have too much confidence that Congress will end up passing anything to curb the speculation, the oil companies have too much money and lobbyists to allow this to happen!

We'll just have to wait and see who's side our politicians in DC are on I guess.

Here's another good article also!
Big Oil Price Swings Caused By Speculators - Report

[edit on 9/11/2008 by Keyhole]

It seems then that the price of oil is political.

Since the government dropped the futures trading regulations on crude oil, politicians have been leveraging the instability of this nation's foreign trading partners as a means for diverting attention from those countries and placing interest in domesticating the U.S. energy sector. The benefit? A certain GOP presidential candidate and his pin-up running mate seize the highest office in the country.

EDIT: Please refer to the more recent post for an update.

McKyle

[edit on 13-11-2009 by mckyle]