An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by soma_pills


And there goes the NV/UT border quake off the map...another one bites the dust.

Magnitude 3.2 - COLORADO
2009 January 15 19:10:02 UTC
40.948°N, 106.922°W
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region COLORADO
Distances 31 km (19 miles) SSW (201°) from Grand Encampment, WY
32 km (20 miles) SSW (201°) from Riverside, WY
52 km (33 miles) E (100°) from Dixon, WY
53 km (33 miles) N (351°) from Steamboat Springs, CO
161 km (100 miles) WNW (286°) from Fort Collins, CO
214 km (133 miles) NW (310°) from Denver, CO

OMG - my ears have all of a sudden in one seconds time - are killing me, the pressure that has just come on is tremendous and is staying with me.
I don't know if this means anything, but wanted to post it. 9:23am est. 1/16/09.

The pressure hurts, my ears have been aching before - but this is as if, I am in a plane and can not depressurize my ears.

A 2. 8 in tenn. of all places has just hit..

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 2.8
Date-Time

* Friday, January 16, 2009 at 21:09:44 UTC
* Friday, January 16, 2009 at 03:09:44 PM at epicenter

Location 35.645°N, 89.688°W
Depth 16 km (9.9 miles)
Region TENNESSEE
Distances

* 10 km (6 miles) NE (39°) from Garland, TN
* 10 km (6 miles) NNW (338°) from Covington, TN
* 10 km (6 miles) WSW (253°) from Henning, TN
* 38 km (23 miles) SSE (147°) from Blytheville, AR
* 64 km (40 miles) NNE (24°) from Memphis, TN
* 335 km (208 miles) S (171°) from St. Louis, MO

I just got USGS notices for five or six earthquakes all around the Alaskan subduction zone. I wonder if this is a result of the 7.4 on the other side of the Pacific plate yesterday? Too close to Cascadia for comfort.

[edit on 1/16/09 by kattraxx]

Just had two very intense left ear tones. First one was an attention getter with the volume turn down/plugged feeling along with a medium intensity whine for about 12 seconds. Second hit about a minute later, same except shorter length, maybe 4-5 seconds. This was around 8:50 PM PST.

I'm going to hazard a guess and say SF Bay Area to off shore NorCal (Eureka area) sometime in the next 48 hours. Not sure on magnitude. I would think off shore would be 5+, on land maybe 3.8+. Still learning to read the tea leaves but this is my best guess for a prediction.

reply to post by soma_pills


Hey, what is interesting, is about 11pm est. my left ear began hurting - along with a left temple ache.

In fact my left ear has some aching now - but not bad. Wow, my right ear - not inside but on the outer top cartlage just began having sharp throbs of pain. Interesting - never had my outer cartlage throb like that before.

If I was sensitive, I would have absolutely no clue to what different pains/aches/throbs meant.

Weird earthquake happened last night:

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km LOCATION
MAP 3.1 2009/01/17 08:24:14 41.971 -118.089 16.0 37 km ( 23 mi) W of McDermitt, NV

I am providing a link to a "forecaster" of EQ's - this guy is Good!

He has a long term forecasting event schedule up with dates and miles to where they are going to happen! He has been accurate so far and even forcasted this one to the day and miles to where it happened, he post the time and date he forecast them ahead of time. I thought it might be a link all of you may be interested in:

www.nextearthquake.com...

Date-Time Saturday, January 17, 2009 at 12:55:09 UTC
Saturday, January 17, 2009 at 02:55:09 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.291°N, 155.005°W
Depth 38.2 km (23.7 miles)
Region ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
Distances 22 km (14 miles) SSW (204°) from Leilani Estates, HI
24 km (15 miles) SSE (147°) from Fern Forest, HI
24 km (15 miles) SSW (193°) from Pahoa, HI
47 km (29 miles) S (170°) from Hilo, HI
370 km (230 miles) SE (127°) from Honolulu, HI

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles); depth +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles)
Parameters Nph=051, Dmin=13 km, Rmss=0.11 sec, Gp=220°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=0
Source U.S. Geological Survey, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Hawaii National Park, Hawaii

Event ID hv00032785

[edit on 17-1-2009 by questioningall]

reply to post by questioningall


Hi QuestioningAll. I had the same ear pains yesterday, one ear then the other, and sometimes both at once. If you want to learn what your aches and pains mean, contact Charlotte King, as it is her work we're basing the geosensology part of our experiment on. Her email address is: [email protected].

Predicting an earthquake in Hawaii is pretty much a sure bet. The EQ's are generally between 2.5 and 3.5, usually volcanic. Kilauea is erupting right now and is at Level Orange, which probably accounts for the larger mag. I have a feeling that one might get downgraded a bit too. The same would go for Alaska, and Puerto Rico... always shaking. The domino islands north of Australia and New Zealand, and the Kurils rock pretty good too. California is also active but usually they are micros. Usually we don't post unless it feels like at least a 4.0 because of this. I believe there was a 3.9 yesterday or the day before at Tres Pinos in California. This would be geothermal activity, which Charlotte says usually precedes larger mag EQ's in CA.

I've seen that linked page before. Mostly he gives himself eight or nine day windows, based on moon phases, and predicts routine mags for areas that shake all the time which brings his "accuracy rate" up considerably when he misses other less routinely active areas. After you've watched the maps a little longer, you'll be able to do just as well. You may notice that we don't make predictions for Alaska, Puerto Rico, etc., unless we feel it will be a higher mag than they routinely have.

The 3.1 in Nevada was a good catch. That was in/near the old McDermitt caldera. EQ's in that area of the state tend to disappear, so screen shots are great.

[edit on 1/17/09 by kattraxx]

Here is another interesting connection Charlotte made. EQ's in Turkey tend to follow activity in and around Greece.

Magnitude 4.6 - CENTRAL TURKEY
2009 January 17 07:45:26 UTC

The EQ in Nevada:

Magnitude 3.1 - NEVADA
2009 January 17 08:24:14 UTC
37 km (23 miles) W (272°) from McDermitt, NV
52 km (32 miles) NNE (33°) from Quinn River Crossing, NV
78 km (49 miles) N (352°) from Awakening, NV
116 km (72 miles) NNW (345°) from Winnemucca, NV

One you don't see every day.

Magnitude 4.8 - NORTHERN ALGERIA
2009 January 17 11:22:25 UTC

reply to post by kattraxx



Right now I don't know if any of my aches etc mean anything, I want to right now, just put down some things happening, and if some EQ's happen that are either close or of decent size, then I might believe there is a corolation between them.

Right now I will tell you, my right ear is paining, almost feeling like bleeding inside, pressure with it and in fact it just popped with pressure - it is going up to my right temple in a form of a headache.

So just jotting down, though probably my imagination etc. 12:05 PM EST.

It is starting to feel paralysing type feeling with the pain now. Also left temple just started.

OK, enough from me, sorry, the last few days are the first times I have ever considered if I was even sensitive, so sorry if I am just carrying on. I guess I am trying to figure out - if I actually am or not.

since EQs happen everywhere all the time (small ones) I would never consider my getting something unless it is of significance.

I really do want to say though, all of this started a few weeks back, does it seem to anyone else, that pressure is building, that is what seems to me, because I have had the pressure aches every single day now for a month. They come on stronger and then lessen.

Sorry, if I have taken up too much space here with this post.

reply to post by questioningall
Hi questioningall,

welcome and great to have you here! (Sorry I'm a bit slow in responding as I've been occupied on the Yellowstone big thread for the past several days.)

This guy with his predictions... As Kattrax said, while he looks quite impressive on the surface the majority of his predictions are really pretty unremarkable to be honest. He covers virtually all known very seismically-active regions, and with his range of two full orders of magnitude he is almost guaranteed to get hits most of the time, especially as a fair percentage of his predictions run around the mag 3 to mag 5 range.

One odd thing I noticed is that while he grades his accuracy based upon magnitude, he doesn't take his time constraints into account so much, so that he has examples of quakes where he gives himself a 100% rating because they fall exactly in the mid-range for his stated magnitude, but do not even come within his time scale, even allowing for his "plus or minus three days" that he normally allows. The same seems to go for location.

Here, we tend to run a bit tighter on the mag range and also work within a narrower time frame, and (as has been mentioned), we are very selective about predicting quakes in lower-order mags for areas that are very active. Otherwise the whole process becomes self-defeating, really. We are looking for the quakes that are generally outside of what's typical for the given area, which is why we have a fairly small number of predictions overall.

Generally speaking, even if we get the region right but we miss the quake's strength by more than one order of magnitude, and/or the time window by more than a day or so, it's hard to argue that the prediction was very accurate. But that doesn't mean these "misses" are of no use, as we still learn from them.

Right now I'm more interested in the symptoms you've mentioned (especially on Jan 16), as they could be precursors. It's very important that we have data like this, because even if we cannot use to make predictions right now, it can be logged and possibly used in the future, especially if several members report similar symptoms.

By the way, did you feel any relief from that ear pressure on Jan 16? I ask because there was that mag 2.8 in Tennessee just after 3 pm on 1/16, less than 6 hours after you posted about the ear troubles you were having -- and you live in Tennessee, right?

best regards,

Mike

[edit on 17/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by questioningall
No need to apologize for taking up to much space with your posts... If you want to see lonnnng posts, I have some doozies on this thread.

Seriously though, the best thing you can do right now in your "early learning" phase is exactly what you are doing: posting what you feel so it's all logged. As the thread title says, this is all experimental, so we are very glad to have members join in and post information that can add to the sum total of knowledge and data on here, no matter what their methodology is (if any). And by posting, you can get feedback from others who have experienced the same things and can give you their own impressions of what it may mean.

This thread is also a good resource as there is a lot of material contained within it, covering a wide range of ideas, resources and theories. It's well worth reading through it if you can find the time. I've re-read the whole thing a couple of times just to garner a few details that I'd missed along the way. (But maybe I'm a glutton for punishment. )

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Yes it lessened, but then last night - right before going to bed I had aches again. Saw there was a tiny quake that happened.

Today though the pain is back with a vengence, now the left ear is paining, the right ear not as much.

I have never before had earaches nor headaches as I have had in the past month.

Interesting enough my little girls inner right ear is itchy this morning, won't go away. But my ears are more pressure that is going to my temples. They even fogged up (not hearing well - I hope you know what I mean) with the pressure.

Can anyone else confirm the "pressure in the ears" where they are?

Hey guys and gals..

just bits n pieces here...
some on topic, some not.


first:

those quakes in nevada:
M 3.1, Nevada

Date:
Saturday, January 17, 2009 08:24:14 UTC
Saturday, January 17, 2009 12:24:14 AM at epicenter
Depth:
16.00 km (9.94 mi)

M 1.6, Nevada

Date:
Saturday, January 17, 2009 01:13:11 UTC
Friday, January 16, 2009 05:13:11 PM at epicenter
Depth:
0.00 km (0.00 mi)

M 1.5, Nevada

Date:
Friday, January 16, 2009 18:14:58 UTC
Friday, January 16, 2009 10:14:58 AM at epicenter
Depth:
16.00 km (9.94 mi)

are all in/on/next to volcanoes/lava beds/fault lines.... it seems to me that any and all places that were once active are grumbling.
I have been to all three of those locations and they are pretty spectacular.



second:
im not sure how many of you use google earth (plus a usgs plugin), but they have done some amazing things with it lately... just in terms of detail alone.. ie: check out Australia... brilliant! detail and colors.

also.. and more importantly... they have UP'd the detail for the ocean floor around Northamerica.. which is pretty amazing because now you can really see fault lines and ocean flow.
I highly recommend it.

lastly:

I wish I would have remembered the time, but I had lots of ear pressure/ringing last night.. im going to guess around midnight, pst.
but with everything so active, I can't possibly tell where it's coming from.

as I write this... ear pressure/popping/underwater-ish kinda sound.. left ear.

1:08pm pst

not sure where it could be... west coast of NA... underwater somewhere.. oregon?

I still don't know locations in relation to pains and such.

Not that it matters but just wanted to say I'm here and also keep check on everything as much as I can.

The problem I am having with myself is I still don't want to give up on my flashes even with the locations not having EQ activity in the two locations.

I'm feeling the makings of a new fault area is coming, when? could be 500 years from now, lol and I'll be Nostradamus (ette)

Surprise!

DELETED: Event NN 00272391

== EVENT DELETED NOTIFICATION ==

***This event has been deleted after review by a seismologist.***

Geographic coordinates: 41.971N, 118.089W
Magnitude: 3.1
Universal Time (UTC): 17 Jan 2009 08:24:14
Time near the Epicenter: 17 Jan 2009 00:24:14

Location with respect to nearby cities:
37 km (23 miles) W (272 degrees) of McDermitt, NV
52 km (32 miles) NNE (33 degrees) of Quinn River Crossing, NV
78 km (49 miles) N (352 degrees) of Awakening, NV
116 km (72 miles) NNW (345 degrees) of Winnemucca, NV
476 km (296 miles) NE (36 degrees) of Sacramento, CA


DISCLAIMER: sslearthquake.usgs.gov...

Ok, forgive me, if this seems a little out there.

But I really wanted to note this.

As in my earlier posts, my ears have hurt at various times...which I have posted.

This may not have anything to do with anything, but I am posting it -

Last night, I had a dream which stayed with me when I woke up.

The dream.....

My ears were hurting with tremendous pressure - I then wanted to Q-tip them (which I do - when they start hurting, thinking it will help), so in my dream my right ear was fine (nothing came out) - but still had pressure after q-tipping - but when I q-tipped my left ear - what came out was lots of bloody type stuff, with mud and junk mixed in.

I know that is gross, and sorry...I really don't know if anyone wants to hear it. The only reason I am putting this down, because it felt to me that the left ear was meaning, something that would cause blood shed with mud slides or something like that.

Then I kept seeing in a vision/thought very vividly each time I awoke in the middle of the night (2 to 3 times) - was a huge red square (like a 7 or higher) on the quake map in southern California - close to the mountain regions. For some reason when I woke up for the day this morning that image was again very strong in my mind and I could see it plainly on the map.

So, be it that I am just being overly intent on the earthquake stuff and my imagination is running away or it may mean something, I have no idea.

So I am just sharing it.

btw: very little pressure in my right ear this morning, though last night I awoke with head/temple throbs.

I really hope no one minds I am posting this, sorry if you do. But just had to write it down. Part of the experiment, to see if anything comes of my own experiences right now regarding EQs.

[edit on 18-1-2009 by questioningall]

Yep me again,

I wanted to post, my right ear has a very deep bad pain right now with some pressure it came on in one second and hurts badly. The left ear has pressure, but not like the right ear, both are hurting signifcantly now though.

I have to say, if I actually am a sensitive, why am I just starting to have these earaches (a little over a month now) and why are they so bad now?

Just a question, due to the fact - I have never had ear aches before like this, which these come and go often now - everyday a few happen.

Aren't people who have been sensitive - have always been sensitive? Has it ever come on to a person overnight? I know I have had (as I posted before) sickness - throwing up and feeling shakey - that ended up being in snyc - same day - with the 7.6 in Indonesia. I didn't know about the quake until a few days later (was out of town - not on net) and the sickness was just the one day, but I can also say I was shaking badly too - along with the sickness - I couldn't stop shaking in fact for awhile.

I also stated - that the big one in China - was while I was in Bangkok Thailand- (which I can verify - was one of the worst days of my life (in the form of pain) ) - yet my surgery had been 2 weeks before - in fact my sister and my mother called me that day but I was not able to talk to them - I could not think nor hardly speak as the pain was overwhelming - my sister later told me - they thought I was dying and freaked out - my mother was even looking to get a ticket to Thailand to come to me - since I was there by myself. I was much better the next day.

I know I posted the above before - but I have never looked back to see if any illness of mine corresponded with any EQ's - until right before the previous post - when I began thinking about it.

So my question is - yes it seems I have had events or problems that synced with 2 big EQ's and have now been having pressure pain in my ears on an ongoing basis..................but...........does sensitivty... all of a sudden to EQ's.... come to a person? Is there anyone else out there, that can verify - that it has indeed just come to them one day- or have they always been sensitive to EQ's?



[edit on 18-1-2009 by questioningall]