An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Stoo82 it sounds wonderful.

I live just outside Philadelphia, PA..... USA, the City of Brotherly Love and I live on the third floor of my home not counting basement of course!

Katt, hmmmm..... I didn't know.

I noticed something different. We need to move from the West Coast to the East Coast and into the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In the last few it seems they have some quakes listed but I notice the quake size has gotten larger not smaller??????

[edit on 8-12-2008 by observe50]

reply to post by observe50


Magnitude 5.5 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2008 December 08 01:51:01 UTC

I was checking that region earlier. Actually more around the Kick 'em Jenny undersea volcano-- which is quite a distance from this EQ, by the way, in the West Indies. Just wondering if she was active lately.

If anything is coming up of significance -- and I'm still unsure -- I'd be looking offshore from Eureka, at around 40.5 -- 41N, 124.5 -- 125 W. I won't explain now (very late here) but I have reasons for that location.

The fault maps might make it clearer.

Goodnight, all.

Mike

Magnitude 2.0 - GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 December 08 23:42:01 UTC
Over towards the coast.

Night, Mike.

Magnitude 3.1 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 09 03:41:07 UTC
Near Olancha.

I came across this interesting article in the Timesonline:

"Earthquakes can set off volcanoes by shaking up molten rock like champagne in a bottle until they explode, a study suggests. The research shows that volcanoes erupt up to four times more often after a large earthquake than they would without the seismic agitation."

www.timesonline.co.uk...

Interesting article, Mountain Dog, thanks. It seems like it would work in the reverse as well, doesn't it?

December 9th, and I'm not getting any intense precursors this morning.

The only one of note currently is the persistent one and this is day three for that, so it's California still at the top of the watch list, mostly southern California just into Mexico, which is obviously somewhat active right now, so this makes sense-- and normally, wouldn't even get a mention.

JustMike, more of those curious micros offshore.

Magnitude 1.8 - OFFSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 05 10:58:32 UTC

Magnitude 1.6 - SAN DIEGO COUNTY URBAN AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 December 09 14:37:22 UTC
Nearly on the beach.

reply to post by kattraxx

Those micros are interesting, aren't they?

I have to say that I still don't see any indications of a major event in the PNW on or by 12/12 (a la webbot and other predictions around the web). I've given my own opinion of a place to keep an eye on (offshore from Eureka), but I don't see it as being where something major will occur by this Friday. Just feel that it's a likely spot for an offshore quake, but more likely in the Mag 4 range. I very much doubt we'll see anything in the PNW region in the next few days beyond a mag 5-range event.

To put this in context: looking at the sort of terminology that has been associated with predictions of a quake in the PNW region by 12/12, both in threads on this site and elsewhere, it would indicate something at least mag 7-plus but possibly well beyond that. Talk of soil liquefaction over large areas/ranges, large amounts of flooding, building collapses and the like, would not likely be associated with an event much under a mag 7. While even a mag 9-plus is possible in this region (and has happened before), I don't pick up anything to indicate it's due within four days or so. My past experience of very serious quakes tells me that if I pick up on them, I usually do so within about three days of the event. So, by around this time tomorrow I'll either revise my present position or just stick with what I've been saying.

However, I'm only only small voice and I've been wrong even in some far less serious prediction cases on this thread. So, I could well be wrong this time and am simply not picking up what others apparently are. If others do have indicators of a major event, then please by all means post them. If on the other hand you are like me and you are not getting any indicators of a major event then it's good to say so. While there seems to be a growing amount of nervousness in the "web community" connected with 12/12, I feel we need to maintain the very balanced attitude that we have had thus far and only say what we think will be, without being swayed by what is frankly near-hysteria in some websites.

While the Juan de Fuca subduction zone is always something we need to be concerned about (given its history) I am more worried about a major event in Alaska in the near future, to be honest. Historically, that region has its share of pretty big quakes. Just drawing on my memory, it hasn't had much above a mid-6 for quite a while but has the potential for mag-8 quakes. I'm not stating this as a prediction, though, but rather as an observation based upon known data. If I see indications that something big is due there I'll certainly post a firm prediction.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Thank you!!!

Bump for duplicate thread idea.

reply to post by JustMike


I agree, JustMike...if some kind of mega-earthquake was two days away, I'm pretty sure a lot of sensitives would be in some serious pain right now, and reporting it. Charlotte King has not issued any earthquake alert at this time.

And from reading the web bot forecasts, thanks to one of our regulars on this thread who subscribes to them and privately shared them with us (thanks), I personally don't feel this EQ, if it were to happen, would be on the New Madrid fault, judging by key words in the web bot "forecasts". Of course, this is just my opinion.

Offshore PNW down to Mendocino, is always a concern, but we don't have any indication that anything catastrophic is building there either. As far as biological precursors, I'm not aware of any indications of a mega-EQ from anyone who is seismically sensitive right now.

I realize a lot of people don't fully understand or give credence to biological earthquake prediction, but as far as I'm concerned, it's the best we've got, and it gives me some peace of mind.

If anyone would like to get on Charlotte King's earthquake alert email list, please email her at: [email protected]. It might give others a little peace of mind.

Magnitude 4.4 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 10 00:28:25 UTC
Trona area

Magnitude 3.6 - GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 December 10 00:29:25 UTC

Also just in on the maps, in red.

Keep in mind, The Geysers and other hot spring areas in California are still very active, which Charlotte has pointed out, means more seismic activity coming.

external image

[edit on 12/9/08 by kattraxx]

I just began getting the SoCal precursor again..it had stopped this afternoon. This could just be due to aftershocks coming. Or not. I'll have to see if they develop more.

Edit to add: As Char has mentioned, the precursor will stop hours before the event.

JustMike, another micro off the coast...

Magnitude 1.6 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA



[edit on 12/9/08 by kattraxx]

As we get closer to the super moon on Friday December 12th, I've noticed the 5+ magnitude earthquakes are increasing - I don't know how to take a screen shot so here is my list:

12/03 - 2
12/4 - 3
12/5 - 2
12/6 - 6
12/7 - 5
12/8 - 5
12/9 - 13

If anyone can post a screenshop of the USGS 5+ page today, I'd appreciate it!

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by mountaindog


Here's the page. Good idea, to count them; should be interesting.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

And:

DELETED: Event CI 10365233
== EVENT DELETED NOTIFICATION ==

***This event has been deleted after review by a seismologist.***

Geographic coordinates: 35.977N, 117.312W
Magnitude: 4.4
Universal Time (UTC): 10 Dec 2008 00:28:25
Time near the Epicenter: 9 Dec 2008 16:28:25

I woke up this morning with blurry vision and some major sinus pressure. Not sure if it's just your average sinus infection or a precursor...just thought I'd report in with the symptoms..

Tela

Not that this has anything to do with anything just thought I would share my thoughts.

I read somewhere (might have been this webbot stuff) that land for quite a distance would be affected and the only thing that goes over and over in my mind with that distance amount is, Yellowstone.

I have checked Yellowstone and nothing really appears to be happening there.

From my "experiences," I remember these words.... "Radio Active volcanic eruption," and this scares me.

Today is the 10th so I assume if anything is going to happen as predicted it could be from this moment forward and as I have learned..... sometimes there is no notice it just happens.

I'm not feeling anything yet either.



[edit on 10-12-2008 by observe50]

Originally posted by Telafree
I woke up this morning with blurry vision and some major sinus pressure. Not sure if it's just your average sinus infection or a precursor...just thought I'd report in with the symptoms..

Tela

I woke up with the same thing... im still trying to shake it..
feels like my head is in a vise.