An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Originally posted by pynner
Holy crap!!! you guys see the swarm in L.A??!!

I have been watching it and suddenly it just "exploded"

29-JUL-2008 18:42:15 33.96 -117.75 5.8 12.3 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA


there are at least 20 other small quakes

That is normal for earthquakes, They are aftershocks. I just wonder if we will see them increase in size over time like the other quakes all over the world have lately. The almost get as big as the original quake.

Well, SpaceCadet... I guess we know what the "fuzzy headed" feeling was now. I call it spacey; Char calls it disorientation. Yes, one of the precursors for SoCal. I really messed up reading the precursors this time. Char did call it very early this morning (2:51 a.m.) in her email alert... SoCal and she hit it right on, which if you receive her email alerts, you know. (Those of you living in EQ prone areas might want to sign up for Char's free email alerts at [email protected])

I emailed Char around 9 a.m. this morning telling her I had seismic flu, then forgot to post it. At any rate, this is a Reno/Sierra precursor. I did, however, think to photograph strange cloud formations I noticed while I was working in my back garden this morning. Right over the Mogul fault area too.

In fact, when the tremors woke me around 3 a.m., I didn't realize at the time why I was awakened, but I let the puppy out and noticed odd cloud formations at that time.

I also felt dizzy a couple times while I was digging in the yard this morning and stopped for a bit. I figured I was just overdoing it. And once while I was out there-- I don't know what time, just that it must have been between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m., my Siberian came over to me, whined and nosed me, then laid down by me in the hot sunshine-- and Siberians don't like the sun at all, with all that fur. I thought she might not feel well or something, and let her into the air conditioned house. I'm sure it was either right after or right before the 3.3 we had around 10:30 a.m.

This is a good lesson for me about not trusting the precursors and attributing them to other things. Because as Char says, even if you have, say an old sprained ankle injury, you will still get the precursor, just more clearly for that region-- if that makes sense. The EQ sensitivity kind of goes for your weak spots, more or less.

I'll post the cloud formation photos in a bit, if they came out. I still have to upload them.

yeah, I know about after shocks, but in the time that I have been watching earthquakes I would have to say that this isn't normal.. it just seems to be with in that one mountain that it's happening.

I will keep an eye on size... they (overall) seem to be smaller and not growing.

me speculating again, but things here on the west coast seem to be lining up for something bigger.

Odd cloud formations over the Mogul fault this morning, 07/29/08.

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Okay, I'm pretty sure I'm getting SoCal now... for the past couple hours. Before, I had the main precursor for two days-- thought it was a +6.0 Japan. Same thing now, but without the two day lead time, so not over 5.0, I don't think.

Let's hope Mogul stays quiet, but.... if you go by its past behavior, the tremors tend to come in pairs and also a few +3's came before the 4.9 last time. I don't like this 3.3 last night.

Edit to add: That is so strange... ten seconds after clicking post, I start getting the seismic flu precursor again. Not good for Reno.

[edit on 7/29/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx

I also have the shrill ear ringing, but I don't generally get ear tones, except that one and it's usually Mexico.

Magnitude 5.3 - OAXACA, MEXICO
2008 July 30 10:23:35 UTC

I've been waiting on this one. I'm still baffled as to how I could pick up Mexico and not think to add SoCal, as Mexico, especially northern, and SoCal pretty much go together, precursor-wise. They seem to shake together most of the time. Anyway, the Sierra/Wasatch precursors are still concerning me today... and by Wasatch, that includes Wells, NV. Here are two more areas that seem to shake together-- one goes, then the other goes. Boy, just when we believed it was over here in Reno...

Edit to add:

Magnitude 4.2 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 July 30 13:39:33 UTC

And I am still getting fairly intense SoCal into Mexico precursors this morning. (Could be an aftershock in Greece too.) I feel a bit redeemed, as Charlotte mentioned in her EQ alert email this morning that there were so many precursors for so many areas in the past couple days, including Greece, that it was a little confusing. (Greece had an EQ yesterday.) And Mexico...

As for my Sierra/Wasatch precursors, I'm hoping eastern Nevada, not western.

Char mentioned the south SF bay area today... San Jose, Morgan Hill to Santa Cruz. I'm also wondering if the seismic flu is about that region as opposed to Wasatch, or both... lots of activity lately.

[edit on 7/30/08 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 4.2 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 July 30 13:39:33 UTC

Still in red on the map. I believe the precursors for offshore are quite similar to south bay area. Another one of those days when so many come in, you don't know which way to turn.

just wanted to add that there were 3, 3.6 or higher aftershocks... but everything else was under 2.5.
it's interesting to see that all of the aftershocks were located specifically just in that mountain. they also seem to be all between 18 and 14 km deep.

Originally posted by pynner
me speculating again, but things here on the west coast seem to be lining up for something bigger.

Hi pynner,

speculation is absolutely fine. After all, this whole thread is about exploring experimental methods of quake prediction, so we have been bending our minds to all sorts of concepts. In any case, on this thread at least you are certainly not alone in your feelings regarding the West Coast. Leafing back through the pages here, that sense of something major has been growing for some time.

Speaking only for myself and to anyone who's reading, I can say that I need to apply a fair amount of time and study to what is going on in order to gain a reasonable sense of what may be imminent. Having just spent three weeks away from home in a very isolated area I missed most of what has been going on in the world, and voila -- the day after I get home California has its biggest quake in around a decade. And yep, I missed whatever precursors there were. Any aches, pains or "intuitive" feelings I had in the past couple of days I just put down to recovering from a very tedious drive.

I guess the lesson is that if any process of prediction is to function reliably it requires several levels of awareness and ready access to needful data. The ability to speculate is a vital part of the process, so any comments or concepts that readers have that could aid the general purpose are always most welcome.

Regards,

Mike

Edited to fix some glitches. My comp has decided to run slow and words have been dropping out. Time to run my clean-up software I guess. (Sigh.)


[edit on 30/7/08 by JustMike]

good morning everyone... it is 11:00 AM in reno nevada

I have been having ear pressure/tones/bursts, and most of the time it feels like my head is underwater..

this is kinda new mixed precursers for me, but i am going to say that i expect a decent size quake to hit the SAN JOSE, CA AREA OF THE SOUTH BAY AREA.....

As I have never had these precursers before, I am putting my educated guess of an area.

The heart area pains are not sharp anymore, just non-specific now, so I'm thinking it's over in the SoCal epicenter, except for the aftershocks. I'm still feeling the SF bay area, probably south bay still. Today, I doubt it would be huge, however, if the lead time stretched out a couple days, then I'd worry.

I was wondering, and emailed Charlotte, if there is any specific precursor for the Calaveras fault running through the east side of the SF bay area, and if the east bay and its faults fit in with the south bay precursors. I will post the answer when I hear back from her.

By the way, when I say south bay area, that extends down to the Santa Cruz region.

Originally posted by kattraxx
I was wondering, and emailed Charlotte, if there is any specific precursor for the Calaveras fault running through the east side of the SF bay area, and if the east bay and its faults fit in with the south bay precursors. I will post the answer when I hear back from her.

By the way, when I say south bay area, that extends down to the Santa Cruz region.

I say that Reno is going to have something like over a 4.0 and the LA will have the big one. I hope not. Mike good to see you back, Did you have a nice vacation? Get you rear back to work lol. Just kiddin Mike.

Lets pray that LA does not shake to hard because at the top of Bear mountain there is a dam holding a small lake up and if that thing fails it will wipe off everything on one side of the mountain witch is many people and homes. I shook my head in disbelief that someone would be crazy enough to put a dam up there on a visit years ago.

Days ago I had crazy headaches like bad pressure on my temples that I know was not related to my back so maybe that was a prequrser to the Cali quake. is it possible?

reply to post by kattraxx

As for my Sierra/Wasatch precursors, I'm hoping eastern Nevada, not western.

Magnitude 3.5 - NEVADA
2008 July 30 21:32:09 UTC

Sierra, Wasatch & New Madrid EQ's tend to cause more intense precursors for lesser magnitude EQs. A Nevada 3.3 EQ disappeared off the USGS map the other day. It was in southeastern Nevada, if I recall.

Edit to add: Upgraded

Magnitude 3.8 - NEVADA
2008 July 30 21:32:09 UTC





[edit on 7/30/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx

I had the Central and South American precursor this a.m. when I woke up-- do not like those-- probably Chile. And the domino islands, as usual.

Magnitude 5.1 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
2008 July 31 06:31:50 UTC

Magnitude 4.6 - OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
2008 July 31 09:33:52 UTC

Magnitude 5.3 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2008 July 31 08:07:38 UTC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Magnitude 3.6 - PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON
2008 July 31 05:02:43 UTC


I did it again-- did not trust the precursors; I almost got back online to post a Washington state prediction, but then didn't. It wasn't over 4.0 anyway, but still trying to learn this lesson about trusting the precursors.

Got a piercing stab of pain in my left knee last night, so I'm going to say Ecuador, although I haven't completely verified that the left knee is indeed Ecuador. We'll see. I'm also expecting Chile again. As Charlotte pointed out, lots of rage crimes this week.

SpaceCadet, you were right on with that left hip/buttock pain being Bolivia. Second time is the confirmation. A new one to add to the precursor list.

Magnitude 4.6 - POTOSI, BOLIVIA
2008 August 01 02:56:41 UTC

More offshore California

Magnitude 3.5 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 August 01 02:30:08 UTC



[edit on 7/31/08 by kattraxx]

It is 215am right now, I am begining to have that heavy feeling in my legs again, like I can barely lift them, it is strange, I am finding myself tripping over my own shoes/feet, clumsy as an ox! This happened I beleive the night before, or during the middle of the night before, the recent Cali quake. Also muscle pain in the buttocks (both sides this time Katt) and in my neck/shoulder areas. I have a headache that is all the way around my head, like a band, and my ears are ringing loud and shrill. I feel like pressure is pushing down on me, on my head, my body, my legs, ect.

I have been having ear pressure/tones/bursts, and most of the time it feels like my head is underwater..

Damntheptb, I just read back and saw this statement you made, that accuratly descibes what I am ttryint to say my head feels like, like the pressure of being underwater.

[edit on 1-8-2008 by space cadet]

Project Camelot has just posted an earthquake prediction... which I have never seen them do before.

projectcamelot.org...

Here is the post from Miriam's blog....

Quake OVER 7 coming to the west coast july 31 to aug 03

PLEASE I ASK THAT ALL OF YOU PREPARE.

TELL YOUR FRIENDS…….

magnitude 7 or higher

A BIG BIG QUAKE IS ON ITS WAY.

FROM MEXICO TO OREGON AREA.

THE SPOT I SEE IS ALITTLE NORTH EAST OF LOS ANGELES………………………

this most likely happen in the next three days so from the 31 of July to August 03……. it may be anytime in the next week from now.

I HAVE A HIGH RATE OF ACCUARACY AND I ASK THAT YOU TELL ANYONE WHO WILL LISTEN.

HAVE FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR CAR. BLANKETS AND SUPPLIS FOR INJURIES. PREPARE TO BE ON YOUR OWN FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS.

MATCHES WATER FOOD AND CLOTHING.

DO NOT PARK UNDERGROUND UNLESS YOU MUST DO SO AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

PREPARE… I SEND YOU MY LOVE AND LIGHT…………..

LOVE MIRIAM

alienbluestar.com...










[edit on 1-8-2008 by yankeerose]

reply to post by yankeerose


In her email alerts, Char did mention precursors for a big seismic event within the week. This particular type of event doesn't cause her usual precursors.... well, if you read her email alerts, you know what I mean.

With the bizarre crimes of the past couple days, I'm waiting on Chile. It seems every S. American country but Chile had an EQ the past couple days. I also noticed my dogs being snarly with each other yesterday.

Originally posted by Sky watcher
I say that Reno is going to have something like over a 4.0 and the LA will have the big one. I hope not. Mike good to see you back, Did you have a nice vacation? Get you rear back to work lol. Just kiddin Mike.

Days ago I had crazy headaches like bad pressure on my temples that I know was not related to my back so maybe that was a prequrser to the Cali quake. is it possible?

Hi Skywatcher and thanks for the welcome back...I think! Seriously though, I'd expect that the recent LA quake did not signify that things would now be relatively quiet on the West Coast for the next few years or so. Naturally, we have to keep an eye on places quite far afield from LA and also continue to look for any possible links between seismic activity in various far-flung places:the knock-on effect, in other words.

Any major quakes in the Afghanistan region (especially the western mountains) could lead to more activity in Cal/Oregon, which is around 180 degrees away. At least, there seems to be a link, and as some scientists have stated the large quakes can cause activity even on the other side of the world, it's worth keeping tabs on this.

About your own symptoms: my own opinion is that yes, it's possible what you felt were precursors. Everyone is different and if we are picking up on precursor energy releases then the way we sense them does not need to be the same for everyone. So, it's worth keeping notes of any symptoms you get that do not seem to have a "normal" physical basis and try and link them to seismic events that occur within a fairly short time frame afterwards. This is, after all, what Charlotte King did and continues to do, in a more refined way.