An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by space cadet

Hi Space cadet,

thanks for the link to that article. You're right about it being a must-read! If nothing else, it's a reminder that geologists are well aware that considerable amounts of heat are being released into the ocean in arctic regions. One has to wonder if they have calculated what effects this heat is having on the rate of polar ice cap melt...and lso if this activity has been going on for eons at the same rate or if it has maybe increased in recent times. In fact, I've also been wondering if the dramatic loss of ice from glaciers in Greenland are solely due to "global warming" or if volcanic effects are playing a part.

Considering that 70% of our planet is covered in water, I'm curious how the author of that study can assert that

"This kind of implosive seismicity is rare anywhere on earth."

(Quote by geophysicist Robert Sohn, from the article linked by Space Cadet in her post.) I'd have felt more comfortable if he'd said something like "this kind of implosive seismicity has rarely been observed" and thus made it clearer that we know more about the surface of the moon than the sea beds of our own planet...

Further, as this article confirms a link between some types of earthquake swarms and volcanic activity, it prompts the question of why waveform data is unavailable for: (a) recent quakes in the Nevada swarm regions, (b) the flurry of quakes off the coast of Oregon since June 14 (bar the first one on that date), and (c) most other recent quakes in Oregon as well. Without this data, no-one can independently confirm the experts' assertions that these quakes are not volcanic in origin... If they are right, why not release the data (that they must have) so their statements may be verified?

Another small quake has hit around Pelee, yesterday was Windward Islands, this morning is 4.6 in the Leeward Islands. Worriesome IMO. I don't like that there is ANY activity in the vicinty of Pelee or Vesuvius, and unfortunatly this past week there has been quake activity around both volcanos. I noticed the activity is very deep too, 147 miles deep.


Link: www.iris.edu...

reply to post by space cadet

Hard to know what to make of Pelée...It's been over 100 years since its last major eruption but with volcanoes that's a relative eyeblink...There is quite a lot of seismic activity in that region though and it looks like there has been for some time, so I agree that it's well worth keeping an eye on things there.

Could we have some more details about the quakes near Vesuvius? I checked the USGS and IRIS maps and couldn't find any that were in Italy, just some in the high-4 and mid-5 range in Southern Greece -- but they were about 1000 km or so from Vesuvius (over 600 miles) so I'd doubt they'd have much effect. If you are referring to ones closer to the volcano then it looks like they might have been taken off the data base...

Edited for typos...sigh!

[edit on 28/6/08 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


I live in the lightning capital of the world and let me tell you that dry lightning is what we call heat lightning. Heat lightning does not touch the ground at all. Its is from could to cloud. Heat lightning does not cause fires. Here in Florida if it is raining and thundering you had better be indoors because the odds of you getting hit by lightning are very good.

Now if you have one decent sized fire throwing tons of smoke and ash into the sky you will get lightning from that just like the kind from volcanoes when they erupt.

If you see the news there was a huge storm that caused all the normal lightning, It just did not rain a whole lot.

news.xinhuanet.com...

[edit on 28-6-2008 by Sky watcher]

reply to post by kattraxx

So far this morning, I'm going with Mexico.

Mexico, 4.9

Magnitude 4.9 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
2008 June 28 16:28:41 UTC

reply to post by kattraxx

Not ruling out Columbia or Bolivia in the next couple days yet.

Magnitude 4.3 - POTOSI, BOLIVIA
2008 June 28 06:19:26 UTC

Bolivia

reply to post by kattraxx

I thought there might be some central California as well. As always, we'll only consider anything 4.0+ a "hit".

Magnitude 4.3 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 June 28 14:44:10 UTC

Central California

Edit to add: Actually, this is a Sierra "hit", more than a Central California "hit". The precursor was "volcanic".

June 26: While I'm posting, I'll go ahead and mention a couple precursors for the Sierras/Wasatch/New Madrid regions... and the Domino Islands.

[edit on 6/28/08 by kattraxx]

I didn't realize dry lightning and heat lightning were the same thing, lol I know it as heat lightning.

Yesterday I was reading a thread about a UFO caught in a St. Louis cam I always pay attention to St. Louis and the Arch because I was shown that before it was built and figured I wouldn't be shown that unless there would be a reason for it one day.

I just caught Fox news saying now that Illinois is getting hit with FROGS. I think we need to keep an eye on this area for either quake or """major""" Flood down the Mississippi River.

reply to post by kattraxx

Also, the South Pacific is coming in pretty good right now... New Zealand, Fiji, New Guinea, Guam, Hawaii.

Magnitude 5.0 - BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2008 June 28 12:10:44 UTC

New Guinea

reply to post by observe50


They call the dry thunderstorms, dry lightning here. It's just lots of thunder and lightning and no rain hitting the ground. Not good in fire season. We're on the eastern side of the Sierras-- 99% of the rain drops on the western side of the Sierras.

The Central Calfornia earthquake this morning was near the Long Valley caldera.

A magnitude M=4.3 earthquake at 7:44 AM (PDT) this morning (June 28) was located in the Sierra Nevada just south of Long Valley caldera (2 miles east of Convict Lake, 8 miles WNW of Tom's Place). This earthquake will have produced perceptible shaking throughout the Mammoth Lakes area. As of this update, it has produced only a few, small aftershocks, the largest of which was a M=1.3 earthquake at 8:03 AM.

Here is some interesting background information on the Long Valley volcano. There are also a few photographs that depict the immensity of the Long Valley caldera.

volcano.und.edu...

Be sure to click on the Devil's Postpile link for some great photographs.

SpaceCadet-- the stomach pressure you mentioned yesterday--- Sierras.



[edit on 6/28/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by observe50


That happens when there is a bunch of rain. Did you not know that the Mississippi was already flooded all the way down to Missouri? I want to show you something from my childhood.

www.rrstar.com...

See the house that is at the top left high and dry still today. My dad built that house in the 70s for us. It flooded three times with the worst being in 1975 and then he raised the house a few stories with the help of his construction crew, Three cranes and a whole lot of dirt. I grew up on that river and seen it flood like this back in 1979. This years flood broke the record set in 1975 at 16ft above flood stage. The river is normally ten feet or so behind that last tree in the back yard.

I have feared that all this water will trigger a quake on the New Madrid fault.

[edit on 28-6-2008 by Sky watcher]

I think I just got a couple Oceania precursors again... that would be the domino islands-- Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, Marianas, Solomons, Santa Cruz, Marshalls, Vanatu, etc. in that region.

reply to post by kattraxx


So the Long valley is a super volcano? Looks like it. I really hope that stays quiet. I never knew how massive that thing is and that in 1980 it had new magma pushing up.

The South Pacific "domino islands"...
6/25, 6.1 Tonga
6/27, 5.1 Tonga
6/27, 4.6 Fiji
6/28, 4.6 Kermadec Islands

domino islands

And I believe I may be getting Indonesia precursors now.

Edit to add: 6/28, 4.9 Solomon Islands


[edit on 6/28/08 by kattraxx]

In Mammoth Lakes you can see the dead zone of trees. Yes, we do need to keep a check on that area and the Mississippi River, St. Louis area.

Now I wait to see if anything more starts up that would effect the East Coast. Cayman Islands area could trigger something.

reply to post by kattraxx

I think I just got a couple Oceania precursors again... that would be the domino islands-- Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, Marianas, Solomons, Santa Cruz, Marshalls, Vanatu, etc. in that region.

Magnitude 4.9 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2008 June 28 21:14:19 UTC

Solomon Islands

I'm adding Ecuador or Bolivia.

Still think I'm getting Indonesia. At first, I was confused as to whether it was Japan or Indonesia, but I'm leaning towards Indonesia.

Space Cadet-- how are you feeling today?

Anyone have any aches or pains they want to mention?

Don't be shy.

Myself, I don't get the precursors as intensely as Charlotte does, in most cases, they are fairly mild-- which is both a good and a bad thing. It's a good thing because there's less discomfort. On the other hand, in order to sort it out, I have to get quiet and calm and really focus on what I'm feeling. I also do not get the ear tones, except maybe for Mexico, I think.

I believe Charlotte is right when she says that many people are sensitive to seismic activity but just haven't considered it yet. We all get those odd aches or pains that seemingly have no cause, and they seem to come and go at random. Take Space Cadet, for example-- her pain sent her to her doctor who could find nothing wrong after extensive tests-- yet she seems to be making accurate predictions based on those, and other, aches, pains, pressure, etc.

I think that first, you have to consider the possibility. Then you have to focus on how you're feeling and try to make connections with seismic events. You might be surprised.

Considering the fact that we are new at this, I think we're doing pretty well. I believe this is one method of alternative earthquake prediction that I am ready to defend.

The pain in my upper abdomen has ceased today (6-28-08), it is 12:47 am and I have a headache in the back of my head and my ears are ringing shrill again. I feel like going to sleep too, which I find unusual, my body adjusted well to 3rd shift and I rarely get sleepy while I am at work, let alone on a fairly busy night. Katt, sorry I still haven't contacted the site you gave me, I will soon though, but I believe that there is something to the precursors, I am sure of it, it explains so much of what has been going on with me.