An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by JustMike

I'm claiming another hit. In the above post on June 12, I made three quake predictions. The first (namely the Kuril Islands quake) occurred within a day; the next in line was to be off the coast of Oregon:

The second is off the west coast of Nth America. I feel most strongly about off the coast of Oregon, but not so strongly that it will be directly west of Eugene as in my previous prediction. Magnitude for this one may not be so great but I would expect over 4.0 on this occasion. Could actually be two or three close together there, both in location and time.

During the past hour there has been a mag 4.9 off the coast of Oregon. Turns out that it was off the coast from Eugene after all...

I have saved screen shots of the maps and data for the above quake for future reference if required. Actually, to ensure all data is secure, it might be best if we do this for all hits that we get from now on.

The last prediction was for the Iberian peninsula but as I said I'm less sure about that one. Still have until the evening on June 15 for that one, however.


[edit on 14-6-2008 by JustMike]

reply to post by billbryan516

Hi Bill and thanks for joining us! As you can see I wasn't kidding when I told you that we need all the help we can get...

Please feel free to post anything you think may be helpful. If you sense or feel any quakes in your area, then definitely report them on the thread here -- especially if they don't show up on any maps (or they do then "disappear"). I'm sure that other members would be glad for your input!

Mike

Edit: PS I'm sending you a contact email for me via "U2U" (AKA a Personal Message). You'll find your "U2U" tag up the very top of the screen. Members need 20 posts before they can send U2U's, which is another reason to post on this thread or elsewhere within ATS.

[edit on 14-6-2008 by JustMike]

To make sure records are kept up to date I've posted confirmations of my recent correct predictions here on the "results" thread. The prediction for a quake in the Iberian Peninsula is still outstanding but there is still a full day yet within the time frame I stated, so we'll see.

As always I'd be glad for any comments, advice or other feedback.

reply to post by JustMike


Yes you nailed the Oregon quake!! Good job.

This one was right in the middle of several air bases vital to our nation.

Magnitude 3.1 - OKLAHOMA
2008 June 09 22:59:46 UTC
Versión en Español

I think we are seeing a scalar war on the U.S. strategic sites. Thats the only thing that can cause the horrible feelings of dread that some of you have felt. If one of you had a short wave or ham radio that could pick up very low frequencies you would hear it but then again thats where the U.S. Navy has all theirs and its off limits to everyone. Thats also why they are in charge of HAARP. Knowing that China is still doing this to us after we hit them back hard, I could only say that we will see a massive retaliation very soon by us. If the sky lights up funny above China then you know they are doomed. I wonder if the attacks by China are hurting our missiles electric systems in any way.

Every single quake that the USGS has removed in the mid-west has been in strategic nuclear base areas. They all have been the same size roughly as well. I think they are hammering at the Reno area to try and get something big to happen with the old volcanic system. I think they are avoiding Yellowstone because that would be one to obvious and too dangerous for the world as a whole. Not to mention we would resort to nuking the hell out of them.

Thats the only thing that can cause the horrible feelings of dread that some of you have felt.

Could be, but it could also be the body's instincts screaming as well... the old reptilian brain picking up danger before you are even consciously aware of it. Cops know this-- and even if they can't logically explain it, they heed this primal warning and it can keep them alive.

I understand exactly the overwhelming rush of fear that damntheptb was speaking of in his previous post. The same thing happened to me the next day... in fact, through email, we determined that we both felt the same tremor. It was about 7:15 pm Thursday evening and I was sitting here at the computer when I suddenly felt intense fear, seemingly for no reason, then this long steady low rumbling vibration began that lasted for at least 30 seconds. And it felt exactly the way damntheptb has previously described it-- like sitting on the lid on a pot of gently boiling water. It is because of these types of tremors that damntheptb and I have begun exploring a volcanic origin, as they seem to fit the description of harmonic tremors. Plus the fact that the USGS has removed the waveforms for the Reno/Mogul EQ swarm has made us even more suspicious.

My house is creaking and popping still today. Unless I am still, these long vibrations are only noticeable when the house creaks... and they never show up on the USGS EQ maps.

As for the rest of the planet, I haven't been able to narrow down a specific region as of yet, but do feel a large event is coming, most likely in the Pacific/Ring of Fire. A very large event, with volcanic origins. I've been talking with others who are having similar inexplicable pains. Hopefully, we'll be able to narrow it down some more soon.

My computer beens down for hours just got it up and running again. I see that 4.9 off Oregon. Mike has been right on.

Last night I saw a word form in my third eye when trying to go off to sleep and I guess it could be a surprise but it isn't because I mentioned it before.

The word, """Hawthorne.""" Not far from you Katt and John Lear spoke of this being a Submarine Base in the middle of the desert, (cough cough)

Supposely tunnels from the Pacific Ocean go all throughout that area and I mentioned water look at the lakes, Mammoth Lake, Lake Tahoe Pyramid Lake and so on. I still highly concerned about Nuclear Waste and where it is located and how it is stored. If you hear/see major military movements they could be relocating this waste who knows.

It looks like Japan is getting hit with aftershocks and now Oregon is at it again. I still would like to know if any of you know what a vertical earthquake is, this is what they kept saying about the 7.0 Japan quake.

Last year that underwater volcano off of Japan had the water bubbling up so we know it's alive and kicking.

I still wait to see if anything happens with the vision and if the big one hits Beijing China with the numerous explosion and white snow shooting straight up.

I will be on and off for the next few hours then I will be gone until Tues, evening and I won't have a computer to check in.



[edit on 14-6-2008 by observe50]

Originally posted by observe50


Last night I saw a word form in my third eye when trying to go off to sleep and I guess it could be a surprise but it isn't because I mentioned it before.

The word, """Hawthorne.""" Not far from you Katt and John Lear spoke of this being a Submarine Base in the middle of the desert, (cough cough

There's both an area and a street called Hawthorne here in portland. THere's been an earthquake near hawthorne before. THey found a fault there that they didn't know existed before. Hopefully its not my hawthorne, i'm not ready for a big earthquake.

Tela

Oh, Goodness I didn't think it could be another Hawthorne I just associated it with the Hawthorne that John Lear talked about, I sure hope it isn't your Hawthorne.

It probably was nothing but I feel we need to relate anything we think might be of interest because what I don't understand someone else might.

I have to go run the kids here and there so I won't be back for a few hours I check in as soon as I get back if my computer doesn't drop dead again.

If no one hears from me it does mean my computer crapped out tonight then I will be away until Tues. evening and will have to see what I can do from there. These contraptions are great when they work but.......

Hello everyone, I am following this site since you began on page one. I am having trouble getting my messages posted and hope this one goes through.

Here is a great little article regarding volcanic nature of the area from Lake Tahoe, up through Reno and out into Fallon: www.nbmg.unr.edu...

You’ll be really interested to know that Slide mountain (GPS: N 39° 18.855’ W 119° 53.059’) experienced an “unusual earthquake swarm” in 2003 due to magma and moved 1 centimeter during the swarm.
The article says:
“Researchers from Nevada Seismological Laboratory and Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology detected that Slide Mountain moved up and to the northeast
approximately 1 centimeter during the earthquake
swarm, implying that magma was injected in the lower
crust near the state line at the north end of Lake Tahoe.”
There are other articles available detailing this discovery online.

Other information in the linked article says that recent volcanic eruptions have happened near Fallon. Soda Lake and little Soda Lake just northwest of Fallon are volcanic
Craters (marr) formed when magma contacts groundwater
and blows up like a steam explosion. The article says that the exact
age of the Soda Lake maar is not known but is younger
than about 10,000. I have read in other articles that Soda Lake may have erupted as recent as 600 years ago.

reply to post by Anonymous ATS


Well, Anonymous, one thing we've learned on this thread is to screen shot any important pertinent information because it has a way of disappearing once it's been posted--- like your link did. "File has been damaged and cannot be repaired." Another of those coincidences.

Thank you for posting-- I've been finding some of what you've mentioned in your post while doing my own research. The Soda Lake information, for example.

I found a couple mining and geothermal studies that detail a Perry Canyon caldera out north of Pyramid Lake. Oddly, I don't think the Smoke Creek EQs are that far from the area of this old caldera.

edited for typo


[edit on 6/14/08 by kattraxx]

Evidence for Deep Magma Injection Beneath Lake Tahoe, Nevada-California
Kenneth D. Smith,1* David von Seggern,1 Geoffrey Blewitt,1,2 Leiph Preston,1 John G. Anderson,1 Brian P. Wernicke,3 James L. Davis4
A deep earthquake swarm in late 2003 at Lake Tahoe, California (Richter magnitude < 2.2; depth of 29 to 33 kilometers), was coeval with a transient displacement of 6 millimeters horizontally outward from the swarm and 8 millimeters upward measured at global positioning system station Slide Mountain (SLID) 18 kilometers to the northeast. During the first 23 days of the swarm, hypocentral depths migrated at a rate of 2.4 millimeters per second up-dip along a 40-square-kilometer structure striking north 30° west and dipping 50° to the northeast. SLID's transient velocity of 20 millimeters per year implies a lower bound of 200 nanostrains per year (parts per billion per year) on local strain rates, an order of magnitude greater than the 1996 to 2003 regional rate. The geodetic displacement is too large to be explained by the elastic strain from the cumulative seismic moment of the sequence, suggesting an aseismic forcing mechanism. Aspects of the swarm and SLID displacements are consistent with lower-crustal magma injection under Lake Tahoe.

Found some of the information elsewhere... www.sciencemag.org...

Edit to add: This reminds me of the (now missing) article in the Sacramento Bee, posted back in this thread, about ground displacement in reference to the Mogul EQ swarm and a study done by a UNR scientist using GPS data.



[edit on 6/14/08 by kattraxx]

I just want to touch on this Japan quake.

It was a 7.2---- 6 dead, 200 injuries and at least ten missing. This quake has caused what they call """a minor radioactive leak""" at a Nuclear Plant.

Highways, hillsides were torn up/ripped open and bridges shook down.

Funny I didn't hear much on this on the news.

I'm gonna take one last look around before I close for the night,if I don't spot anything I'll see you all Tuesday evening.

Please be safe and be prepared for anything.

I am still feeling that something very big is going to happen, possibly in the Pacific. I keep thinking about SoCal and Mexico, but I couldn't tell you why. Also, I noticed there have been a couple incidents of whale beachings in the past week.

globalvoicesonline.org...

www.caller.com...

something I wanted to throw out there is that... out of all the activity on the west coast of NA.... Oregon seems to be pretty quite considering how many young volcanos are there.

looking on google earth, theres just a big gap.. seems odd.


thoughts?

I would like to report that I am still having a strange pain in my left buttock ( go ahead, laugh it out), but it is getting worse, and tonight my ears are ringing in a whole new tone, the tone was different when I woke up today, it is more high pitched now.

I forgot to mention or ask if any of you heard about the chilean volcano opening up two new calderas? Yep, it is starting to sound more like a supervolcano, I know I watched a few years ago a show about Yellowstone, and how it could open up more than one caldera at a time, part of what makes it a supervolcano.

edit = add link : eruptions.wordpress.com...

[edit on 15-6-2008 by space cadet]

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat,

as I think I mentioned in a message to you, it looks like something (or "someone") is messing with internet connections/servers over there in your part of the world: I was able to access anonymous' link okay and downloaded the pdf file. I can mail you a copy if you like. Just let me know. (Or anyone else who wants one, of course. Especially US-based members who also cannot access that link... Just message me with an email addy and I'll send it on.)

However, Kat, just as you have said it's getting more and more difficult to find seismic data for your general region of the US. A lot of the links that you (US members) can no longer access are truly down as I can't reach them either. And the same goes for wave form data and other scientific data. With US-based quakes there is a lot of variation in what is available. For example, here is a copy of the wave form data for the mag. 4.9 Oregon quake of 14 June 2008. Please note what the USGS says in relation to this data sheet:

The seismograms are plotted as a function of distance with stations close to the earthquake at the top and more distant stations plotted at the bottom. Zero time corresponds to the origin time of the earthquake.

For any members who have never seen this type of data before, this means that the elapsed time shown at the bottom of the data page is not the duration of the quake. It shows the time elapsed between when the quake began (ie "zero time") and when its effects were registered at various stations. Those further away will register it later and so we have this "diagonal" effect. All sets of wave forms shown here are for the same quake, not several different quakes.



This extremely valuable data is not available for the Nevada Swarm quakes. All that is available for those quakes on the USGS "scientific and technical" data pages are the Historic Moment Tensor Solutions, which while interesting, give us no indication of the possible ultimate source of the quakes as either "normal" seismic movement or volcanic.

For example, compare the wave forms for the (above) undersea Oregon quake with this mag 3.2 which occurred in Central California on Saturday night June 14 (Pacific Time): (15 June 03:00 UTC):



You can see some slight differences in the way these waves were propagated and this data can be very useful in trying to determine possible causes of the seismic activity, and that is something which could be vital if there are indications of possible volcanic activity. This information should be available to all who wish to access it. So again we have to ask:

Why is the USGS no longer providing this wave form data for the Nevada swarm quakes?

Why are so many web pages of seismic data suddenly unavailable?

Why are quakes being deleted or "moved"?

WHAT is going ON?



[edit on 15-6-2008 by JustMike]

Central California, I mentioned that a couple days ago, haha. Only a 3.2, so 'nuff said. And on that, I think damntheptb and I also hit the Sierra/Reno prediction we made a couple days before the EQs that hit near the old Perry Canyon caldera north of Pyramid Lake. I believe that's connected with Sierra activity as opposed to Wasatch.

Wow, JustMike, excellent post, starred. And excellent research. I can't wait to explore that site and see if I can find enough evidence to advance or trash my little theory. I hope I can trash it, since I live here and all.

Welcome to the thread and the aches & pains of earthquake sensitivity, Space Cadet. Which reminds me, I had S. America percursors during the night, a few times, ouch, both left and right side-- that usually means Peru, Chile, Brazil, Ecuador. Maybe +6.0, given the number of occurences.

Pynner, not sure what you're getting at. Could you give us more information? Thanks.

As I said in my previous post, we are finding it more and more difficult to obtain waveform data for quakes within Nevada, especially those in the “swarm” areas. One source of data was the Nevada Seismological Laboratory (NSL) Trace Display, which is located at the following URL:

www.seismo.unr.edu...

However, this link now displays nothing. Not even the link within the NSL’s own page works any more, which means that the wonderfully detailed description of the display on that page is now useless.

However, back on this page, that provides links to the above-mentioned “resources”, through the wonder of the Internet we have access to real-time images of the helicorder located at Buffalo Canyon in Western Nevada. This at least should give us some idea of what sorts of waveforms are being picked up. Well, that was the case until yesterday, June 14...

Here is an image of the helicorder for BCF Buffalo NV 14 June 2008, at 08:04 Pacific Time:



This image is no longer available on the site, because they drop off after 24 hours. Fortunately I got it in time.

Note that there are some very interesting waveforms shown, which are significantly different in appearance from others on the helicorder. The larger of the more "typical" quake traces, showing an event which occurred prior to the "different" ones, probably relates to one of the Nevada quakes on Friday 13. Please also note that even when almost nothing seems to be happening, the heliodor’s sensitive instrumentation still picks up and displays “background” vibrations -- ultra-micro tremors, if you wish.

The drum paper gets changed regularly but I don’t know the precise interval. However, the following image, which shows the helicorder for BCF Buffalo NV 15 June 2008, at 07:07 Pacific Time (ie 23 hours after the previous shot), suggests that in this case the paper was changed very shortly after the first image in this post was taken:



Considering that we know this helicorder normally picks up even very minor background vibrations, why does it appear to now show virtually no activity at all in over 23 hours? Has it simply gone very, very quiet? I mean, it’s almost like the tracers were deactivated… But surely they wouldn't do that, would they?

JustMike, if you have time today to do research in the area I mentioned, see what you can find and post, okay? I'll be busy today, but will try to check in periodically on the thread and maps. I know if I start looking now, I won't get anything else done for hours!

I notice Central California had a couple 3.2 EQs. I have to say, I'm still getting Central California even now, I believe. I also noticed a 5.3, I think, in S. America during the night, but I don't think that's the one I'm waiting for... And of course, the ever-present Sierra/Reno precursors; they never really go away, it seems.