An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Wow! Where has everyone gone???
Pick one:

A.) I've been feeling so good that I don't need to post. []
B.) I've been feeling so crappy that I'm not up to posting. []
C.) I've been feeling so bad that I can't tell what is eqs. []
D.) I lurk, but I don't like to be the first one to post. []
E.) I went off grid for a little while. []
F.) None of your business! []

Someone must be feeling something, with all the bigger quakes & activity in Japan!
I believe it was up to 1,000 aftershocks in Japan now?

The rescue cats all wanted their belly's rubbed last night.
Even the ones that usually don't like it.
I just figured it was all the activity,
but in the back of my mind I wondered if more were on the way.

Hubby & I are still feeling it, but not as bad as this morning before the 7.0.
Probably still a lot of aftershocks on the way.
Anyone else???

WOQ

a reply to: wasobservingquietly

My husband, who doesn`t normally have "dreams", woke up at 1am thursday morning saying he had had the worst nightmare he`d ever had. It was about 2 huge quakes happening in the same place. But it wasn`t about Japan... he was home (Arkansas) and saw the ground split open and houses being destroyed all around us.

He lived in California as a child, and has been thru quakes. Until we started having them here (frackquakes) he didn`t give the science much thought (I`m the geek of the family... he`s a heavy equipment mechanic).

When I told him about the Japan quakes, I also told him he`s not allowed to dream anymore!!! LOL!

But if he does, I`ll post it from now on.

originally posted by: wasobservingquietly
Wow! Where has everyone gone???
Pick one:

A.) I've been feeling so good that I don't need to post. []
B.) I've been feeling so crappy that I'm not up to posting. []
C.) I've been feeling so bad that I can't tell what is eqs. []
D.) I lurk, but I don't like to be the first one to post. []
E.) I went off grid for a little while. []
F.) None of your business! []

I am a mix of C and A and E I suppose as I have not been on ATS really. I would say it was about an hour ago that I felt some vertigo feelings that I meant to post right away but of course I got distracted with weird internet things. Story of my life. Life has been a bit busy but I have checked in a time or two to see if people still posted just nothing was going on. Glad you are still around though. I like that you still check up on the thread.

Good Morning!

Im predicting an EQ over 6 in magnitude within the next 48 hours. With the recent lull and now the uptick Vanautu has chimed in. Why does it matter Vanautu is chiming in? I have no idea !! Normally when I see this type of pattern somewhere around the world the earth shakes violently in a location unknown to me until it happens.

a reply to: MamaJ

Did you miss the earthquake in Italy this night?

a reply to: MamaJ

Just checking in. You were right!
But I don't think it's over yet!
Hubby & I felt the 6.2 in Italy, even more than the 6.8 in Burma or the 7.1 north of Ascension Island afterwards. I don't know why...maybe it has something to do with the depth or shaking strength? Today we are both feeling something again. Around 2 EST today, both of us felt a strong upsurge in symptoms. It didn't last too long,
but it hasn't completely gone away.
Usually if it's quake related, it will show up within about 12 hours.

I guess we'll have to wait & see!

WOQ

I can't believe nobody has stopped by
with all the high activity we've been having!

6.2 Japan, 6.3 Philippines, 5.8 New Zealand,
6.4 Tonga, 6.9 Fiji, 5.9 New Zealand & the
latest, a 5.0 off the coast of Oregon.

And that's all in a little over 24 hours!
Plus lots of high 4's & low to mid 5's,
& a fair amount of aftershocks too.
Poor hubby is feeling miserable with all
his usual symptoms.

I have had some of the usual hunger,
but not as strong as it sometimes is.
Which is weird with that much activity.
But lately I have a new one...
Extreme sleepiness, just like I was
slipped a sleeping pill!
It comes on so fast
& puts me to sleep so deep,
that I don't think I would be able to
wake up if the house was on fire!
I worry what would happen if I was driving!
And that can be even in the morning
when there's no way that I'm tired!
And it happens much closer to the actual
quake time than the hunger ever did!

I'm worried with all the diverse places
that are being hit at the same time,
two different places in Africa, Romania,
Iran, South America, North Atlantic,
South Pacific...that there is something
bigger in the works.

My ears have been ringing for the last
20 minutes too!

Anyone else?
WOQ

a reply to: wasobservingquietly

I just wanted to pop in to acknowledge your post.

I have got my eye on the Oregon coast.

I am keeping an eye on the whole Eastern coast of the Pacific.

www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca...

a reply to: crappiekat

Hi!

The first Oregon one caught my attention,
especially because of the size.
Then when the second one hit in the same area...
Something unusual seems to be going on the last couple of days all over.

My spidey/Mom senses have been tingling!
WOQ

Just checking in.
So much unusual crankiness going on around me that something must be in the works!
Not political stuff at all, family stuff.
If something is building, I wonder if it's affecting the protesters too?

Just wanted to log it, in case it turns out to be something.

WOG

Yep! Something is definitely off! Lol!
WOQ

Hi guys.. How are you all? I must apologise for the long absence, but I've had the worst two years of my life, and am only just now really sorting myself out...it's been hideous, to be honest, but I'm still upright, more or less.

I have no symptoms to report really, and nothing like the Alaska headaches I've had in the past, but a very strong feeling of anxiety the last two days, really bad even for me....hopefully it's just my stuff, and nothing more.

Will have a read and catch up...

And to day I have the mother of all headaches. The last time I had one like this...behind my eyes like a long spike from the top of my head down...there followed a mag 8 in the Aleutian Islands. So...at least a 7, Aleutian chain within 24 hours, I'm being shown 2-3 degrees either side of the 57th. As ever, hope I'm wrong. Going to try to sleep it off.

a reply to: caitlinfae

I hope you feel better very soon.

a reply to: caitlinfae

Sorry, I only just saw your post!
A lot has been going on & I haven't been checking in like I should!
How is everything going by now?

I've had this feeling of overwhelming sadness all day today. It seems to be building as the day goes on. No other symptoms so far though.

It's so not like me at all! I can't help but wonder if I'm picking up on a mass war killing somewhere or if it's quake related?!

Hubby said he feels something too. Kind of like quake symptoms, but 'weird' too!

Anyone else feeling anything?
WOQ

Earlier this evening, I felt an extraordinary "jolt". Put that in quotes because it wasn't physical.

Wish I could narrow this feeling down but right now have no indications for a specific region. However, if what I felt related to some of the things I've felt similarly in the past, I'd expect something quite major, and (as in the past) that usually means within about a 72-hour time window. But what I sensed what quite substantial, so I'm looking at cca mag 7 Mw or bigger.

a reply to: wasobservingquietly
Hi WOQ,

yes I've also had similar feelings lately but cannot fix on anything specific. Could even be just because I've had a virus for some days and only in recovery now. But I don't think that significantly affects what I wrote just above. Can only add that I am rarely affected by purely "human" events ahead of time; my own sensitivity tends to be towards earth-based ones: principally seismic.

a reply to: JustMike

Hi, Mike!

After I posted above, there was I think, a 6.0 off the coast of Alaska, but it was too unusual a feeling for one that small. That's the discouraging part, having such strong feelings/symptoms & then nothing shows up! For me, if it's quake related, it usually is within about 12 hours or so of symptoms.

I haven't been paying attention to solar things, but it seems like maybe there could be a connection there too. I saw links on Fb about solar stuff & some kind of warnings on YouTube coming up, but I didn't go there! Didn't have time to check it out even for giggles!

Not feeling anything much tonight, so who knows?!

Hope you're feeling better!
WOQ

a reply to: JustMike
Today, Dec 17, there was a mag 7.9 Mw earthquake in the Papua New Guinea region (The link goes to the USGS page.) Thankfully, there are apparently no immediate reports of casualties. Though there were tsunami reports, the waves were relatively small. (1 to 3 metres in the PNG region itself.)

In my post "replied to" above, which I made very early on Dec 13 (my time, 23:53 on Dec 12 UTC), I said I was expecting something "quite substantial" within around 72 hours or so. I gave that time frame because in the past, what I sense usually happens within about range. Sometimes it's a bit later but still within a max of 7 days -- as some of my prior examples in this thread show. I just don't tend to pick up on anything more than 7 days out.

Anyway, the above quake occurred about 4 1/2 days after I made my post. So, it's not too far out of my more typical time window and still well within my 7-day "limit".

It's very true that this region gets a lot of quakes, and sometimes quite big ones. But I suspected this 7.9 Mw had to be one of the biggest this year anywhere, because I tend to recall any quakes of mag 8 Mw or bigger and didn't think we'd had any that large. So, I just ran a search of the NEIC quake database at USGS, with the following "custom" parameters:
Minimum magnitude to display: 7.0
Maximum magnitude: left blank so it will show all quakes of mag 7.0 or over.
Region: World (ie, anywhere in the world)
Date and Time: 2016-01-01 00:00:00
End date: today at midnight (its default setting).

There were 16 results -- and today's mag 7.9 Mw is the biggest earthquake in the world this year.

I think that qualifies as "quite substantial". I can now understand why I felt the need to post about it when I did. It was also my first post in this thread since March this year, but that one was not predictive in any way.

a reply to: wasobservingquietly
Hi WOQ,

well, I made a post back in March 2015 where I said "I wouldn't be surprised" if there was a major event somewhere in the world within 72 hours. And on that occasion, nothing major happened. But the other day when I posted, the feeling was much stronger. As I said, I felt "a jolt" and thankfully, I only get those very rarely. So, I had to post.

Sometimes we see a result and sometimes we don't. But if we do get results that tie in closely with what we said, and they are within a reasonable time frame, then we have some basis to argue that the likelihood is greater than mere chance. That post of mine from the 12th (UTC date) was my first prediction of any kind since March 2015. So, over a year and half. And the quake today was the world's biggest this year.

I think it's hard for anyone to use the "even a broken clock is right twice a day" argument under those circumstances. Okay, they can, but it's pretty hollow.

Right now, I am wondering if today's event was a precursor of something bigger. Maybe a bit further along the line of that fault system? But, I'm only wondering. Something about that "jolt" I felt still really bothers me.

Well, 2016 has now become part of history.

Just for the record, there was not a single magnitude 8 (Mw) or bigger quake in the entire year. I just checked the USGS/NEIC database HERE and confirmed that the biggest event in 2016 was the mag 7.9 Mw on Dec 17 that I noted above. (If you wish, you can use the above link to do your own search.)

We tend to average a bit less than one mag 8 (or bigger) quake per year. There have been 83 in the past 100 years (since 1/1/17), so as we have some years with two or more, it's not unusual that we get the occasional year without any. Or even consecutive years, such as the four-year breaks with no mag 8 quakes in 1925-1928, 1953-1956, and 1990-1993.

While the 21st century has been rather busy, with 21 mag 8 or bigger quakes since 2000, the last time we had a quake in that range was on Sept 16, 2015, when there was a mag 8.3 Mw near Illapel, Chile. And that was the only mag 8-plus quake in 2015.

There was also only one in 2014: a mag 8.2 also in Chile, 94 km NW of Iquique.

In 2013, there were two: an 8.3 in the Sea of Okhotsk in May (which was very deep and did no real harm), and an 8.0 a couple of weeks later in June, in the Solomon Islands.

I've seen plenty of posts and threads on this site asserting that the number of big quakes has been increasing. As I mentioned above, the first decade and a half of the 21st century has been over-average if we look at 100 years of data, but one century is really a very short time geologically. Also, there is going to be a fair amount of variance. We had 21 quakes in 16 years or so (from the beginning of 2000), which works out at about 1.3 per year. But we've also gone more than 15 months since the last one.

The point I'm making is that just because we did not have a mag 8(-plus) quake in 2016, it doesn't automatically follow that we'll get one this year. Statistically, the odds are greater -- because there has to be one sooner or later -- but factually? No. We could get none. Or we might see one, or two, three, or even more.

But there are more factors to consider and I'll address some in the next post.