An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Hi WOQ,

speaking for myself, I'm still on edge but not so bad as yesterday. This could be good or it could be bad. It just depends. Sometimes I feel a great lessening of tension shortly before a major event occurs. Other times nothing happens.

But yes, I'm still watching the quake maps pretty well all the time. I have a quake app in my browser that makes it "shake" whenever a new quake gets posted on the world map, so when it shakes I go and have a look and hope it's nothing major.

Mike

reply to post by radpetey

Hi radpetey,

just to let you know: there are good one-liners and bad one-liners. Yours was one of the good ones.

I have it on good authority from some ATS Staff that generally speaking, one-liner posts are okay if they contribute something of value to the ongoing discussion. Where Staff draw the line is with one-liners that are just "lololol" or similarly useless comments like "I agree" (because if we agree but have nothing else to add, we can just star the post), or if the post is offensive, abusive, trolling, off-topic, or otherwise breaches T&Cs.

In other words, there's no need to add "2nd" when your short post is actually ok. Adding it doesn't make a one-liner any less a one-liner.

So I'm just letting you know this as a fellow member: mods have no problems with one-liner posts that contribute usefully and are also within the T&Cs.

And a note for everyone: speaking as a fellow member, I have to say it's a great credit to all the members posting here that this is one of the "cleanest" big threads on ATS, with almost no staff action being needed in the more than 4 1/2 years it's been running. When you compare this thread to many other big threads on ATS, that is really something special.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


I feel the exact same way Mike. Feels less, but still there.

Just to add, this has been a long one, feeling it for weeks now. Hope it just goes away soon, and not cause of a bad eq. I know that a lot of us have been looking at the NW and Cascadia, myself included, but I am actually just as worried about New Madrid. My daughters dream is stuck in my head.

Hang in there man, it is a rough ride. And just thanks in general.

Peace

Hello all..... Hope this finds you well.

I'm checking in to report.....a total lack of symptoms. Yup. Nothing, nada, zilch, zero. I've just finished an 11 hour shift on my feet for all of it, in a mad busy deli, and I'm barely sore even in my feet or my right hip, which is usually the worst spot. I actually feel like I have energy to spare, and not a hint of panic either, for the first time in about a week. I have absolutely no idea why they've all disappeared. I even pushed my luck with a cheese sandwich ( like I almost WANT to be ill! ) but still nothing.

I didn't get very far with trying to think of some way of pinning locations, apart from using a totally random game with words, or even libromancy, which I kinda like. If you're a bookworm like me, you will have plenty to work with. It goes like this....focus on your question for a moment, then close your eyes. Run you left hand along a shelf of books, and stop where your intuition tells you to. Open the book and put your finger on a page, again running on only intuition, all before you open your eyes to read it. I've used this a few times with very interesting results. The trick is to focus on your question properly, and it makes no difference what kind of books you use really....the information you need will be there.

And in the "Songs stuck in head" department....all day it's been Sweet Home Alabama.

I will also try and find some information on the fault line that run under London, which are fairly major, if I remember rightly, and London so isn't built for a major quake.

Before responding to the above posts (hi to you both!), I'd like to post something I've just finished writing up.

***********************************************************

Folks, yesterday I received a private message from a member who has been following this thread closely, but who for the time being would prefer not to post directly, and hence wrote to me to pass on some observations. The member wishes to remain anonymous for now, but to avoid extreme awkwardness in writing I will say only that the member is female.

ATS has around 50,000 female members, so I hope that's still anonymous enough.

Her observations were so fascinating that I felt some of the details were worth sharing with you. However, because the T&Cs (and common courtesy) forbid us revealing any specific details of private messages without permission, I wrote back and asked her for consent.

Well, while there is no compulsion for any member to give consent to such a request she kindly agreed – on the express understanding I offered that I would not reveal her identity. So please don't even ask for anything more on that score as I will have to decline.

So, with the introductory explanations out of the way, I will present a summary of what she communicated to me. It is a good example of a form of lateral thinking:

She told me that she has had Maura O'Connell (an Irish singer) stuck in her head for a while, and that a member on the thread here was talking about Enya. (Also Irish.) She went on to say that a member mentioned the letter "i" in relation to a possible upcoming quake location, and that another mentioned North London.

So, she considered the link of O'Connell & Enya = Ireland. Further – and this is where open-range thinking really begins – she considered that in a way, North of London was somewhat equivalent to Ireland as well.

Moving on, she considered that Ireland starts with an “i” and laterally linking that to us all talking about Vancouver, she found something very interesting: there is an Ireland in Washington, just a little ways east of Vancouver, WA. This was something that I personally never knew. I didn't even know that there was a Vancouver in WA!

She concluded with the comment: “You all are giving me goosebumps.”

To be honest, her remarkable process of thought association gives me goosebumps. It's very similar to the way that I am sometimes “led” to quake locations that I post about -- but more refined, as it were.

Oh, and a final observation of my own on this, but deriving from hers: Vancouver WA is just over the river (and the border) from Portland, OR! Consider that in light of Laser's “dream” post about Portland, that he posted about again just yesterday.

Mike

I've had the same dream over and over and over every night, the one I mentioned a few pages earlier about arguing with my husband over a quake in the GoM. It varies a just little each time now towards the end of it before I wake up, with another bigger earthquake in another spot jumping around the Pacific. The spot is oscillating between Kamchatka, Japan, the PNW & Alaska. This is quite unusual for me. I have plenty of repeating dreams, but they're repeat locations that I visit with a completely different storyline I'm in each time--no two are the same. These repeating dreams lately are unchanging/barely changing scenarios all-around, set on shuffle.

I'm making a notation of it here, but I'm still going with too much EQ stuff lately as the influence, unless proven otherwise. That's probably the healthiest way to look at it anyway.

reply to post by JustMike


Talk about goosebumps Mike! That write up just gave me some.

Thank you for posting that, and thanks to the anonymous member as well. As Mike pointed out, this is a very friendly thread, even though our subject matter is pretty darn scary at times.

Just had an ear ring, but still very mild compared to the last two weeks. Pressure is building again, but not critical yet.

Peace and love

reply to post by lasertaglover

Well, we can always hope for the best! However, considering the following...

reply to post by caitlinfae

It's good to hear that you're feeling a lot better. It also can be a bit of a worry. This complete "lifting" of the feeling relates back to what Charlotte King (or it might have been her researcher Chris Dodge) called the "uh-oh moment" -- the time when we suddenly feel all okay again -- and a few hours to maybe a day later, the quake hits.

I wrote about this in a post back on Aug 27 here.

So, a question: have you experienced this kind of release from the "heavy" feelings before, only to find a major quake happened some hours to maybe a day or so later? It's not necessarily the case that you ever have, or even that it might be so this time. But I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Oh, and Cait: location is always tough. I can never "force" it myself. I either get it or I don't. But anything's worth a try. It's quite possible that you'll have success with methods that might not work for others, so keep at it.

Mike

People, here's an interesting newspaper article from over 30 years ago that was among the earliest published on the scientific interest in people sensing earthquakes:

(From the Boca Raton News, Aug 14, 1981. Click on the thumbnail to open the larger image in a new window.)

Here's the link to the google page for this article: Scientists Say People May Hear Earthquakes

Two things are significant about this. One is that it is focused on Charlotte King and the research done on her own abilities, which formed the basis for a formal paper presented by respected scientists of the time. The second is that apparently, not a huge amount of progress seems to have been made since that early research. The Bioelectromagnetics society still exists, but considering the enormous benefits that could be gained by being able to both define precisely what we sense and then create devices to do the same artificially (and hence be able to predict some quakes), it begs the question of why progress is so slow.

True, the BEM Society covers a huge range of topics and has never been just limited to the aspect that Dodge and Tell presented in their paper. Much of the research published in their journal is highly technical and of little or no relation to our own concerns. Not directly, anyway.

That matter aside, for any who have their doubts about what we are trying to do here (and who perhaps consider us a pack of crazies), this article at least helps to evidence the fact that there is a legitimate and scientific aspect to it. We are doing our best with the limited resources at our disposal but the more contributors, the better.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Thank you for your reply....and this did go through my head today, that maybe the absence of symptoms was significant in itself. There is such a marked improvement in a few days. Tuesday and Wednesday were particularly bad days, but it's all gone. It has made me feel a little on edge, thinking about what it might mean. Sadly I havent been observant enough in the past to link it to seismic activity, but I will say that it's very unusual for all the feelings I've had to dissipate so completely. I will be watching it very carefully in the future.

On a little side note, here is a link to just one of many pages I found about the London fault lines...seems to be very well documented.

London fault lines

And an interesting document from the British Geological Survey...havent had time to read it all yet myself though.

British Earthquakes


We sat and watched a very silly film tonight, just to chill out - Despicable Me.....we haven't really grown up at all in our house... And the opening song was Sweet Home Alabama. Just sayin.......

Wanted to add that I feel very strongly that whatever this is, it involves water in a major way...landslip, or tsunami.
I feel like I'm seeing a very long roll of water falling into a fault line of land slip. It's more than a wave, it's like a relocation or a splitting of a landmass.

reply to post by JustMike


Hi, Mike!

I don't know what to think. Some of my symptoms are gone.
Earlier today though I was fumbling, bumbling & stumbling.
That's usually a sign for me.
Needed three hands to try & do anything!
No dishes flew out of my hands when I was washing them though.
I've had it so bad a couple of times that a dish would 'fly'
right out of my hands and over my left shoulder!

You would think that having wet hands & fumbling a dish,
it would drop down into the sink. But nope! Freaked me out both
times that it's happened. First thing that came to mind was a poltergeist!
Now my ears are ringing & I am feeling pretty energetic!?

Hubby called from work & asked what was up. Meaning quakes.
Then said he had to go, & hung up without saying anything else???
When he got home he wouldn't say what he was feeling, tried to brush it off.

He told me once that when he feels it pretty strongly, he's afraid to talk about it.
Like it will give validity to it. That the more he thinks about it or talks about it,
the more likely that it will happen. That's usually the times he feels the 'sadness'.
Like people are dying. What a burden to put on himself!

I told him as 'special' as he is, I don't think even he has that much power!!!
So today when he won't talk about it, it makes me think he's feeling it strongly.
When he came home a little while ago he did have his eq 'face' on again.

This is something I've just noticed lately & have been keeping an eye on.
He gets these vertical 'wrinkles' from his cheek bones down to his jaw line.
So far always at least on the left side, but sometimes on both sides.
Today it's both sides & pretty even. At first I thought they were trough like,
but then I realized it was a raised ridge. Like on those wrinkly dogs.
About an inch back from where laugh lines would be.
He has a very level face normally, no wrinkles, so it's very noticeable.
Makes him look like he's really tired. Sometimes he gets super pale too.
People ask him if he feels okay when that happens,
they can see something different too!

I wish I would have known about this stuff before Japan's big one.
I just remember he looked so awful that night, and he felt so terrible,
that I thought we would be going to the ER!

I'm starting to get a little antsy now & hungry, but it is mealtime here!!!

Can anyone find that quake app you mentioned?
That would be a good thing to have!
WOQ

reply to post by caitlinfae

Thank you for the links, Cait. The news article was quite an eye-opener for me and Musson's report even more so. I haven't read all of the Musson report yet as it's quite lengthy but I shall certainly do so. Just from what I've read so far, the potential for relatively serious shaking in the British Isles (and even in London) is far, far greater than I had realized. So, it's well worth studying up on it.

You know, even after reading hundreds of reports and studies on quakes over the years I still feel that frankly, I know almost nothing, so I'm always glad for more to read and ponder. I'd expect these sentiments are shared by many of us.

In regard to the other matter -- of a cessation of "feelings", to put it one way -- at least it's something you can now consider from another possible angle.

Meanwhile, as it's getting late I'll bid you all good night and frevently hope that on the earthquake front at least, it is incredibly uneventful for everyone.

Mike

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Hi WOQ,

because it's late here, just a quick reply for now.

I've had plates fly in all directions. In my home if I do the dishes, flying saucers are real!

Seems like your hubby is very sensitive. That must be hard to bear. I wonder if he's always been like that or if it's simply appeared relatively recently?

Oh, that earthquake add-on that shakes the browser. It's for Mozilla Firefox (if you have that) and you can get it direct from their site: eQuake Alert add-on.

I have it set up to shake in accordance with what typically gets posted on the uSGS world map -- namely quakes of mag 4.5 or bigger, usually.

Okay, I'm off to hit the hay!

Mike

2.7 16km SSE of Dauphin Island, Alabama 2012-11-09 23:24:12 30.111°N 88.073°W 5.0

earthquake.usgs.gov...

It's not western Louisiana, but it's still got my attention. I'll be watching to see if this is just a solo shake, or if something plays follow the leader.

4.3 in Kentucky

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Peace

reply to post by Nyiah


Regarding my previous comment about watching to see if something played follow the leader? I'm officially a little weirded out today. **backs away slowly**

Do they do fracking in that area of KY? I think there's a fault in that region, but I wonder if any fracking on it could have lead to or influenced the 'quake in any way. Just a passing musing on my part, probably more fit for the QW thread, though..

reply to post by lasertaglover

Yes, and regarding that 4.3 earthquake in SE Kentucky. First I'll log the data as the link to it will drop off within about week:

M4.3 - 13km W of Whitesburg, Kentucky 2012-11-10 17:08:14 UTC

Event Time
1. 2012-11-10 17:08:14 UTC
2. 2012-11-10 12:08:14 UTC-05:00 at epicenter
3. 2012-11-10 18:08:14 UTC+01:00 system time
Location
37.165°N 83.036°W depth=23.7km (14.7mi)
Nearby Cities
1. 13km (8mi) W of Whitesburg, Kentucky
2. 74km (46mi) NNW of Kingsport, Tennessee
3. 88km (55mi) NE of Middlesboro, Kentucky
4. 92km (57mi) NW of Bristol, Tennessee
5. 179km (111mi) SW of Charleston, West Virginia

Source: USGS

Now, besides the fact that they don't get a lot of quakes there, you might wonder why I'm even bothering to post anything more about this one.

Well, back on Nov 8, Caitlinfae posted here about quake locations and specifically mentioned London. It was a great post and worth a lot of thought. In my reply here I said among other things:

London is thought to be very unlikely in terms of a major seismic event, based on what we know of the region's seismicity over many centuries past. But there are other places named London, including several in the US. (At least 5.)

At this time, I had no idea of the amount of seismic risk that exists within London, England. Cait later posted links to some material that enlightened me.

But here's what is so amazing about that quake in KY today: besides the places USGS mentions in that data report above, that quake was about 57 miles east of London, Kentucky!

(Click on thumbnail to see larger pic. Red writing is blurred, sorry. It happens when it saves as a jpeg file.)

Out of all the places a quake could happen, it was that close to a place named London.

True, a mag 4.3 is nothing major, but I am wondering what this might indicate, if anything. By the way, it was also only 10 miles SW of Hazard, KY...

Whatever all that might mean: Cait, you picked on something, I'd say.

Mike

Today's magnitude 4.3 in KY was the biggest earthquake in the central USA since a mag 4.8 in TX on May 17 this year. Refer to the list at CERI (U of Memphis) here

Also, larger quakes in eastern KY are much rare than ones in the west of the state. According to the USGS historical earthquakes in the US list, the last one of significance in eastern KY was a magnitude 3.7 on Sep 17, 2004.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Oh my...I didn't expect that at all. I've got the weird tearful confirmation feeling too, when you can just tell that something has been given to you from some source other than human. And the volume on Sweet Home Alabama has just gone up to 11 in my head....the song has been there for days. I just hope it's down to the songwriter's skill in constructing such a hook, and nobody actually gets hurt. Maybe we should look at other places called Alabama though. I'm off to google it.

Mike, and Laser, thank you again for your watchfulness.

Originally posted by caitlinfae
reply to post by JustMike

 

Oh my...I didn't expect that at all. I've got the weird tearful confirmation feeling too, when you can just tell that something has been given to you from some source other than human. And the volume on Sweet Home Alabama has just gone up to 11 in my head....the song has been there for days. I just hope it's down to the songwriter's skill in constructing such a hook, and nobody actually gets hurt. Maybe we should look at other places called Alabama though. I'm off to google it.

Mike, and Laser, thank you again for your watchfulness.

Caitlinfae, it occurred to me that Sweet Home Alabama could be referring to the 2.7 off the coast of Dauphin Island, AL last night, around 11:30 eastern. Couple that with the location of the Kentucky earthquake today, and I'm wondering if this is like a connecting the dots warning of sorts that you happened to pick up on. I'm going to be watching the entire US closely, not just the KY area---the west coast on the USGS has been all but silent for the past 2 hours with not one shake at all, and I'm starting to worry about what that might mean.