An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by JustMike


I must admit, I'm not easily impressed, but that report caught my attention!
It will be interesting to see what happens.

I didn't even know that there was an IEVPC, or that the headquarters is in Orlando, Florida.
Or that it is linked to the heart of the CMWS operations center in Canberra, Australia!
I must have missed that when he posted about it back in July!

Something in the 8 range could also trigger other quakes around the rim couldn't it?
So maybe what you're sensing is spot on.

Poor hubby can't catch a break. The 8's in April were bad enough....
I remember how awful he looked right when Japan had their big one.
That was before we knew for sure that there was a connection,
so I wasn't in a 'researcher's' type mode yet!
I'll have to keep both eyes on him when he's home.

One good thing though, the dentist's office called today to reschedule his appointment
for tomorrow, to the end of the month. That might turn out to be a very good thing!
WOQ

The Kamchatka thing is very intersesting....but how can they be so confident about a time window? I thought the whole point was that earthquakes are notoriously difficult to predict.

As far a symptoms go, today the physical stuff has more or less subsided, but the anxiety is almost off the chart...unbearable, and I swear to the gods, there is no cause for it that I know about, and I have no history of depressive illness or anxiety related issues. I'm having nightmares, waking up at 4 in the morning, feeling restless and then like I've got no energy at all to do anything.

I kinda wish it would just happen and get it over with.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Hi WOQ,

I'm still a bit dubious about the reports because of the rather "closed club" nature of that organization. They don't make their specific data public, neither do they release full details of why or how they reach their conclusions from the data they've collated.

Okay, if they get things right then perhaps they could argue that it doesn't matter how they do it, but on the other hand it would be good to have more information. If the purpose is to save lives then why don't they tell us how they are able to be so precise with their predictions?

Well, to be fair I should add that they will provide specifc data -- to their "customers". In other words, if you are willing to pay, you get the specific info. Not sure if they tell their customers how that info is used to compute such precise predictions, though.

And about their CMWS warning stages: it says on their site here that a stage 7 warning means:

A CGE will strike within 1-2 days. All personnel
should be at emergency protection sites
as specified in the Stage 7 CWN.

(Underlining is theirs, not mine.)

The Stage 7 warning for this event (on their site here) was issued on July 30, 2012. No event as stated in the warning occurred within the stated region with a day or two of that being issued, nor has one occurred since.

The Stage 8 warning is defined on the referenced page as follows:

A CGE will strike within hours. Personnel
should be in protected structures to withstand
the CGE effects specified in the Stage 8 CWN.

(Again, the underlining is theirs.)

So having issued a stage 7 warning that the event will occur within 1-2 days of July 30, more than two months later they issue a stage 8 warning on Oct 9 for the same predicted event -- and stage 8 predictions are for events that will occur within hours.

So I'm puzzled by a couple of things. On the page where they define what these warnings mean, they use "will occur" for stage 7 and 8 warnings, but in the actual stage 8 warning for this event they say

This major earthquake and possible tsunami may strike this week with a most likely date of Wednesday, October 10, 2012.This upgrade from the previous July 30 CGE Warning Notice is issued because of the latest highly reliable precursor signals received over the last three days.

(The stage 8 warning doc is here.

"May strike this week"? What happened to "will"?

And why do they not give a word of explanation as to why their stage 7 warning was so far off? Also, why are they now hedging on the precision of their stage 8 warning (in spite of having a page on their own site where they say such a warning is for events that will occur within hours)?

Frankly I'm very, very dubious about all this. I mean, if I make a very specific prediction in this thread for a quake event in a given region, magnitude and time frame and it doesn't happen, then I post to say my prediction was a "no hit" -- that is, I admit I got it wrong. Anyone can check back and see that while I've noted my "hits", I have also diligently noted my "no hits". Ignoring data just because you get it wrong is both unscientific and misleading.

On July 30 they issued a stage 7 warning. By their own definition of what that "stage" means, the event should have occurred within 2 days. It didn't and still hasn't. They got it wrong and have made no admission of that fact.

This is not a scientific approach and so I am suspicious of them.

reply to post by JustMike


Yes, I guess a 7.7 in the general area two weeks later, doesn't cut it!

But it would be exciting to know that they are on the right track!
Given that weather forecasters with all their expensive satellites & radar don't always get it right either!

Or it could be that 'imminent' type warning means we might have to wait another two weeks!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly and also to reply to post by caitlinfae

Hi WOQ & Caitlin,

In the general area might not be too bad if they'd just predict for a general area, but they give precise coordinates. They don't say how they got the location.

Also, they first said back in April that this event will happen by the end of June. They issued a press release about that, along with the original warnings. Then, when nothing happened, they went for the end of July. Still no luck, so after waiting a couple of months or so they go for this week.

I think they're spinning a web here and frankly I don't trust them. If they'd come out and said at some stage, "Our original predictions were off because of the following factors, etc etc," then okay, I'd be less critical, because we'd get some insight into how they're doing this. But they haven't given us anything like that, so I wonder if they do even have a method at all.

What if another couple of weeks goes by without the event occurring? They've already given us a Stage 8 warning and really have nowhere else to go on that score.

reply to post by JustMike


Have to agree with Mike on this and in the warning they also state this will be therer final Warning Issue.
So if nothing happens are they gonna go back on there word and issue a Stage 9 Warning?

Just to clarify, you all know I'm very supportive of anyone who even attempts to make predictions, no matter what methodology they follow. But I feel we all see the need to assess each prediction when the stated time frame has ended (for the given location and magnitude). If no event has occurred, then that should be acknowledged and they are not doing that. They're just advancing the date and giving themselves more time.

Okay, the event could happen today, or within the next week. But if it doesn't then they should come out and say, "Okay, we got it wrong." They should have done this at the end of June and definitely after prediction ("take two") just after the end of July also washed out.

So I'm wondering what they'll do if it doesn't happen. I already know what they'll do if it does: they'll claim they predicted it precisely, and likely ignore the fact that their two previous deadlines passed with no result.

Meanwhile, my prediction for a mag 5 or bigger on or very near the PNW coast that I posted about 9 hours ago still stands. If it doesn't happen by around midday (my time) on Saturday, then that will be a "no hit". If that turns out to be the case then it'll be logged as such.

Best regards to all,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Mike,
Thanks for keeping us grounded & pointing out the flaws in that info!
I guess there's still more optimist left in me than I thought!
I so want to believe eq prediction can be proven!
I hope I live long enough to see the day! Quick, someone invent a tricorder!

That said, hubby started to have a seizure during the night last night.
And I just had to run & keep him from going into another one as I was sitting here!
It still scares me every time because if I don't get to him before a certain point,
he goes into a full blown one & I can't stop it!

He is really tired today. He split a heck of a pile of firewood yesterday
when he came home from work!
But twice in less than 24 hours has only happened once or twice before.

Unfortunately I don't remember a time line eq wise!
Note to self: Trying to remember to scribble on the calendar when it happens,
is not how a real researcher logs information, or proves a connection!
(Another New Year's resolution in the making!)

He has been feeling something for quite awhile with no let up, only a lessening of symptoms, then they increase again. But it could be the high 5's & 6's lately too.
Still feels a lot of pressure today too. So I guess we'll see!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

We need to hang on to our optimism. There is some good evidence even in this thread that the goal is achievable. I would be as glad as anyone if this particular organization could do what they claim, but frankly their methods puzzle me.

Their allegedly scientific approach is not being followed through by scientifically and impartially recording the results of their predictions that did not come off. And that is not the way a legitimate scientific organization operates.

Recording "misses" (or "non-hits") is just as necessary as recording successes. Anyone with even fundamental schooling in scientific methods will acknowledge that. Also, the greater the precision of the prediction, the more rigorous we have to be in assessing the outcome.

Put it this way: if we have someone in this thread who says that they think there's a fairly good chance of a mag (x) quake in a given location within about the next week or so, and such an event occurs nine days later, I'd take that as close enough to their time window to mark down as a "hit". Provided, of course, that it's not a location where quakes of mag (x) occur on average every week or so anyway. (In that case it's a pointless exercise as purely by chance they'll be right most of the time.) That's why I'd never bother predicting a mag 5 range quake for Indonesia, or a low-range mag 3 for SoCal, as they're practically a given within any week or so.

But if someone back in April said, "a major earthquake and possible tsunami will strike between now and the end of 2012" and then went on to say, "Location : Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Epicenter coordinates: 50.5 N, 159.6 E", I'd take that as a very specific prediction that required very rigorous assessment.

And that is exactly what they said in their CWN document on April 9, 2012. The document is on their site here.

Their prediction had no ifs, buts or maybes. They said it will happen. It did not, and I feel that by failing to say "We got it wrong", they are doing more harm than good. I know that these things are incredibly hard to predict, but they gave the impression that they were absolutely certain they were right.

And now, many people will see them as having cried wolf. Not only with that warning, but the next one on July 30, where they advised people to move to places of safety as the event will occur within 1 to 2 days.

This is what bothers me. Some people may have become frightened and moved out on the basis of that first warning. Then after some days, they moved home again. Then in July, they get another warning. Dilemma: move or stay? But they say it will happen, so it's best to move...

And then nothing.

And now, after two months, they get this warning on Oct 9, released a full six months after their first prediction on April 9 -- the one that said this event would happen before the end of June! Even if they are right this time and a big quake hits within that region within a week, they've given themselves half a year to hit it.

So, how much credence do we give them?

And if it doesn't happen -- and the odds are it won't -- then where does this leave things? Do we give them another six months of issuing warnings to evacuate as the quake "will" occur within a couple of days?

It would have far better if they had just come out and said at the end of June, "The expected event did not occur. We are now re-analyzing the data and we may make another prediction in the future."

I'd be happy enough with that. It's what happens in science all the time, in many fields. Things don't pan out, you assess why, and see how to improve. Their current approach just gives the nay-sayers more ammunition.

I mean, I'm for the concept of quake prediction and look how I'm laying into them! So imagine what the "prediction is impossible" brigade are doing!

Anyway, moving on...

I hope hubby's feeling better. Seizures are never pleasant. I have my own forms of them to deal with on occasion and they're pretty awful. But being quake sensitive as he seems to be (and perhaps to CMEs as well?), that must mnake it harder.

Let's hope things quieten down.

And just to finish: I'd be very glad if that predicted Kamchatka quake does not occur. Not because I want that organziation to be wrong, but because I don't want people to suffer the horrors of such an event. I'd rather it doesn't happen for a long time yet, if possible.

Mike

Originally posted by lurksoften
[snippy]
Have to agree with Mike on this and in the warning they also state this will be therer final Warning Issue.
So if nothing happens are they gonna go back on there word and issue a Stage 9 Warning?

Hi Lurks,

it says on their site here that

Pragmatically, CWN’s may not be issued after Stage 8 is reached when only hours remain before the CGE event. When advanced communications and alert systems are available in the affected area, a Stage 9 (minutes) warning may be issued.

Again, this statement tells us that Stage 8 warnings are issued when only hours remain before the event. It is then puzzling why they say in the alert that it could be within a week. Just wish they'd redefine their warning criteria on the page that lists them.

However, generally speaking they say that issuing Stage 9 warnings is a matter of what communications and alert systems are available, and that makes perfect sense. No problem there.

I can record the fact that as of right now -- 20:24 UTC (GMT), no Stage 9 is on their website for this event. This means they do not expect this event to occur within the next few minutes. We are still on the Stage 8 warning.

Mike

Oh, no!
Had a good supper not all that long ago, but now I'm craving popcorn!
That's never a good sign!

Looking....looking....nothing!!! Did I use up my supply already?
I thought I had a 1 # bag left, but it's rice that got put in the wrong place!
I'm really NOT ready for STHTF!!!

Canned corn just doesn't cut it, but I guess it will have to do! Aaaah!!!

Anyone else feeling something building???
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I have had a strange fit of the giggles. It was almost like a major stress relief. Now back to throbbing head and ringing ears.

Hmmm.....no Westcoast yet? Waiting to see how she is feeling.......

I'm feeling it big time, I have been feeling it build for the past couple of weeks. I'm trying to assure myself that it is only the weather changes. Maybe coupled with changes in our solar wind. I've always been physically sensitive to those types of changes. But, I don't know. It just feels familiar. Like how I felt when I first joined ATS, looking for answers, trying to figure out why I had this intense intuition about Earth and changes. A few weeks before the Japan quake.

Was this what we were feeling?

MAP 6.7 2012/10/12 00:31:30 -4.842 134.085 24.7 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

SOURCE: USGS

24 hours from the time we posted.
Popcorn is usually a pretty good indicator for me.
That craving is worse than any I ever had when I was pregnant!
Or maybe it just seems that way because I'm usually antsy at the same time.

Did go to the store yesterday & get a couple of bags, just in case.
It is 2012 after all!
Why couldn't it be a chocolate craving???!!!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Not sure, but I do feel loads better! Thanks for popping in and getting that on record.

Originally posted by thinkingthing
I'm feeling it big time, I have been feeling it build for the past couple of weeks. I'm trying to assure myself that it is only the weather changes. Maybe coupled with changes in our solar wind. I've always been physically sensitive to those types of changes. But, I don't know. It just feels familiar. Like how I felt when I first joined ATS, looking for answers, trying to figure out why I had this intense intuition about Earth and changes. A few weeks before the Japan quake.

the night of that quake, my husband had a horrible nightmare about a demon laughing; popped out of a jack in the box and grinned at him.

as for me, that week i had delusions and premonitions of dead bodies. i could not sleep the night of the quake.
although it was daylight for them it was night for us, and we were afraid of the dark.

Interesting about that one...all my symptoms disappeared for a day or so, but in the last half hour they've returned and worse than ever. I'm still having nightmares, mostly about being attacked, almost like night terrors when I try to scream but can't make any noise, and the anxiety is killing me. I just wish I knew what the source is.

Originally posted by caitlinfae
Interesting about that one...all my symptoms disappeared for a day or so, but in the last half hour they've returned and worse than ever. I'm still having nightmares, mostly about being attacked, almost like night terrors when I try to scream but can't make any noise, and the anxiety is killing me. I just wish I knew what the source is.

I've had nightmares for two nights now. First was about floodwaters, second was about attackers

reply to post by KhufuKeplerTriangle


It's very strange. I almost never remember my dreams, but have almost every night for the last ten days at least. And they have all been very dark, threatening, dangerous, and I feel them long after I wake up. I'm actually using Bach remedies to deal with this anxiety now, it's so bad.

Just putting this out there in case it turns out to be something.

Old cat has been under the desk for the last few hours.
He's come out to eat & gone right back under.
Even when I wasn't at the computer.
The last time he did it, was at least 20 hours before the 6.4 in the Balleny Islands.

Earlier tonight, young cat was trilling & wanting a lot of attention.
I can't find her at all right now & I even tried calling her.
Usually the only time she hides is when we have a thunder storm!

Hubby said his quake symptoms, on a 1-10 scale are about a 4 right now.
I'm having ringing in one ear & I'm hungry, but not for corn this time.
I am getting a little antsy, & I need to go to sleep, but I'm starting to feel like I'm full of energy!

Guess we'll have to wait & see what the next 24 hours bring.
There was something about a CME but I don't know when it was supposed to be over.
WOQ