An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Hmmm...
One typo I must comment on from my post above. Where I wrote:

"...been reading all your comments and have my own feelings on why may be coming up. It's been puzzling me for a few days and now I feel the need to post something."

I meant to say that I "...have my own feelings on what may be coming up" (not "why may be").

While I have the post machine open I'd like to drop in a map from USGS that shows quakes for the relevant region of the world as at 2100 UTC today/2300 my time (Sept 29, 2011). My post is logged a few minutes before that.


As you can all see, no quakes are shown near Jakarta or east of it. The nearest is off to the west, a mag 5.1 in the Banda Sea that occurred on Sept 26.

Mike

Just came on here to post that ear ringing started about two hours ago, really strong and about every 20-30 minutes. Kinda bothers me in relation to the above posts...which do make some sense to me. It has been a while since the ear ringing was this strong, I hope its not in relation to your idea JustMike.

Peace

reply to post by lasertaglover

Hard to say, really. I keep a mental note of the general trend in what people say and where it ties in strongly with my own indicators then sometimes I'll post a prediction as I've done today. But other times I can't work out any location and have to just wait and see what happens -- if anything.

You mentioned all the birds and animals. My feeling is that it could be they sense a hard winter coming and are therefore doing whatever they can to feed their faces to the maximum. I saw something similar in this context here a couple years back when the squirrels basically cleaned out every acorn they could find in the forest. Usually they'd leave plenty (as they're fussy) but that year they were gathering nuts like crazy. And yes, it was a very hard winter!

How did they know? I have no idea. But they knew.

I also appreciate that your situation is more complex as there is such a variety of animals acting unusually, but I'm just offering a possible explanation for some of the behaviour. There could well be other things they've picked up on as well.

***********************************************************************************************************************************************

Acknowledgement of source material: to make sure I stay within the T&Cs, I need to state that the image in my prediction post here is courtesy of USGS and the original (without my additional markings) can be accessed on this USGS page. The image in my follow-up post is also from USGS and the original can be found at their website on this page. (Please note that these images on USGS will change over time, according to earthquake activity within the respective regions.)

I have no association with USGS and use their images purely for informational and educational purposes.

Mike

I've also had ear ringing today, which I normally don't get (more just the head pressure). It's happened at least three times today, but it's really noticeable because it's really loud and I lose my hearing at the same time (becomes really muffled, like when you wear earplugs or when you can hear your blood rushing).

I'm still feeling like a huge amount of energy is trying to surge through me, but it doesn't seem to be getting "stuck" anywhere in my body (causing the tension in the jaw, head pressure etc.) but still coursing through nonetheless.

reply to post by onthelookout

Well, at least it's all logged here, just in case... Sometimes I think we can only figure out what some of these things mean in retrospect, if they have any meaning that we can discern. Some things might remain beyond us.

But just by the way after reading your post I checked a few west coastal stations on GEE. One up on Lummi Island (station TA.A04D) shows some extremely slight EW and NS movement and the usual very minor vertical (Z scale) movement as well, but nothing out of the ordinary. Down in Oregon TA.G03D in McMinnville it's a fraction more bumpy on the EW and NS traces than up near Seattle but again, well within normal ranges. CI.SBC down in Santa Barbara is pretty quite, too.

So at present, not much showing of any note up and down the coast. Nothing showing on the PNSN map for yesterday or the day before, so also quiet on that front.

It's amazingly quiet, really.

Ear ringing definitely picking up in frequency.

That feeling is starting to get stronger as well, and my dog is starting to act odd again.

reply to post by JustMike


Thanks for that reply. Mike. The keys on the keyboard
Nothing has happened in the world around here out of the ordinary since, other than the weather.
Although something in my personal life involving an age old conflict with something did rear it's ugly head. If I did pay attention to the cat, I would have probably spent the night with a loved one and I would not have gotten into the conflict I did. Was the cat telling me something, was the glass half full? It will be one of those things. The next time I will pay more attention.
I do have the things you suggest on the ready as should everyone.

reply to post by JustMike

In respect to the prediction I made for the Indonesia area in the above-linked post, and which had a time window that ended last Thursday, October 6, 2001, I would like to record the fact that no such earthquake (of the specific magnitude) occurred within the stated region or time frame. The prediction I gave in the above-noted post is therefore a no hit.

There were a couple of smaller quakes (mag 4 range) very near the given region but as I said in my post, anything below a magnitude 6 would not qualify as fulfilling the prediction. In other words, I'm not offering those smaller quakes as an "I almost got it right" argument. They were nowhere near big enough and are also so common in that part of the world that the locals wouldn't even make note of them over their morning cups of cha.

I must admit that I am bit puzzled by the relative quiet in that region right now. To me, the indicators were enough to post the prediction and I never take these matters lightly. For me, it's a serious business. However, sometimes we just get things wrong. And I was wrong.

Mike

reply to post by mantic

So, it might have been an indicator of sorts, but you and I misinterpreted it, possibly. It happens. And there's also the chance that it meant nothing specific at all. That's one of the difficulties; sometimes we are not sure what to take note of or not. All the same I think it's better to consider such things and see if we can learn something from them even if we are ultimately shown to be wrong (or right off track). I gather you feel much the same way.

That's part of the reason why I have no real qualms about posting "no hits" if my predictions are wrong. Someone might take that data and gain something from it that will be beneficial. And in any case, I don't see a wrong prediction as a failure. I only consider I've "failed" when I see indicators for an event and fail to post -- and then the event happens! I've noted a couple of such "failures" in the thread.

Good to hear that you are, at least, pretty well prepared if a larger quake happens along. Sadly, I expect that only a small percentage of people in areas that could be afflicted by major quakes have any real level of preparedness, either at the physical or mental level. In that respect, then, you are ahead of the field. Just acknowledging what could happen and mentally preparing yourself to deal with it is half the problem. Kudos to you.

Mike

Last night I dreamed about earthquakes. That may seem like a no-brainer since I talk about them all the time, but in reality I rarely ever dream about them, especially not specifics. SO...thought I may as well document it here.

In my dream, I was with my husband in our 5th wheel and I had the sense that I was somewhere south...either Oregon or California. All I know is that I wasn't home, but close enough to think that if I felt a quake there it could have affected my home in Washington.

So in the dream everything starts shaking. It's a slow build-up, which told me right away that it was a large quake. Just as the shaking got violent, it was replaced with the rolling motion. I have experienced this twice before. A 6.5 while vacationing at disneyland and the 6.7 here in Washington about 12 yrs ago. So anyways, the rolling got more and more pronounced and I saw a power pole snap in half just outside the window. I wasn't scared until then. I never reacted with fear the other times I was really in a quake too....I find it fascinating first and then the fear eventually hits me. In my dream though, the fear came with the realization that perhaps I wasn't at the epicenter of a large quake, but the outer reaches of a mega quakes and I thought of my kids.

I got on my android phone and began searching for the quake info. In my dream, I was trying to scroll across a map of the states. It was frustrating because in my panic I just wasn't doing it right. I remember seeing all sorts of quakes listed in black on the map. I ignored the small ones, looking for only the big numbers. I saw a 7.7 and a 7.2 (which were near my location....) and scrolled up to Washington where in red on the NW coast was a 6.8 quite near my home. I was crying and trying to dial my home number when I woke up.

So...make of it what you want. Like I said, I don't normally dream of quakes, and if I do they are vague without such specifics as magnitudes and locations. A 6.8 in my area could be bad, but certainly nowhere near a mega. Also, it was on land, so it would come from one of the many faults around here, vs the subduction zone. I am more interested in the 7.7, 7.2 and other multiple quakes I scrolled past. This scenario goes along with mine and some others theories about a chain reaction setting off multiple large quakes along the coast.

I didn't have a sense of when this quake was....only that it was soon. When I first woke up, I felt a need to warn people right away. I held back for awhile though to see if that feeling went away. It has faded a bit, but obviously isn't gone.

reply to post by westcoast

Hi Tara,

as I'm also one who thinks about quakes a lot, I have to say that (surprisingly) I also very rarely dream about them. I'm glad you've made your post. Though its meaning may be purely symbolic, there is the chance that it might have a more premonitory angle and so this is a good place to have it logged.

Speaking of dreams, one I had was very strange and still bothers me if I recall it. I'll write it down just to show how things can go sometimes.

I had this dream sometime in the week before Christmas in 2003. I dreamed I was in a house, but it wasn't where I live in reality. In fact, it was a very different sort of house. The ceilings were different, there were hangings on the walls in what I'd call a middle-eastern style, the windows were smallish, the room had little furniture, even the overall coloring of the place was different and the air there was what I'd call a dusty smell. (Yes, I can recall odors sometimes.) There were other people in the room, but I had mixed feelings about even being in this house. I know I felt odd about the whole thing.

Suddenly there was a very low, rumbling sound. It seemed to be all around us. I actually wondered what it was even in the dream!) but immediately, the other people started screaming and shouting "Earthquake!" and after a few seconds, as the house shook and the walls cracked open so I could see right through the gaps and things began crashing down, they all ran outside. I vaguely recall some old stone steps and rushing down them in half-panic and then I found myself outside as well. It was very eerie, as the air was full of dust and the rumblings were still going on. There were some funny-looking traffic lights in the middle of an intersection and dirty-looking cars were going all over the place as drivers dodged falling masonry, running people, and other cars. Utter chaos.

I recall wondering where I was, because now I knew that I wasn't even in my own country. The place was completely alien to me. Again, it had a middle-eastern feel, with the style of dress of the people and also the architecture -- lots of houses that were no more than two or three stories and few taller buildings. And the dust everywhere was just terrible.

Fortunately I then woke up and a little later that morning I wrote down all I could recall.

A few days later, on December 26, 2003, an earthquake struck the city of Bam, in Iran. More than 25,000 people died. Many of the homes were made of mud bricks and they just crumbled and trapped their occupants. Those that were able to get outside were the lucky ones.

Though this quake was "only" a mag 6.6, it caused massive devastation and even destroyed the Bam Citadel, which was 2,000 years old. (Yes, two thousand years old!) It was the deadliest quake recorded in Iran's extremely long history.

As soon as I heard of it on the news and saw the images from the wrecked city, I recognized the place where I had been in my dream. Now, I won't attempt to explain it. Suffice to say that I believe sometimes we can know of events before they physically come to pass within our personal "now".

That dream and the following event that cost so many lives was one of the reasons I have devoted literally thousands of hours over the last several years to quake research and to trying to find ways to make quake prediction both reliable and scientifically acceptable and accepted. I feel that the "esoteric" aspect cannot be overlooked and many of my prediction posts within this long thread have been based on that. Not from dreams, but from trying to look beyond the "now" to an alternative time line, if I can put it that way.

This is the first time I've even said much about that aspect of my own predictions. I have mentioned it, but because the scientific and knowledge-based practical aspects are also vitally important I've tended to emphasise those. We need the science. We need it to make sure we don't spout nonsense about magnitude 12 quakes and so forth like some fear-mongers do, who are so obviously clueless about the subject that it's amazing that anyone takes any notice of them at all. But some people do, which is why we need to have at least a fairly good understanding of the basics of the science. You, Tara, certainly have that; I also have tried to at least keep up with what the scientific world learns and publishes. But while we need the science, the esoteric has its place.

So, I'm glad you posted. While it seems that not many read this thread, at least it's on record and that could be valuable for any future study we do.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Thank you for sharing your story! I personally haven't had a dream come true in a long time. However, it has happened before. Back when I was about 14 I had a period of a couple of weeks where several dreams came to pass. One was about a car accident, another about a drug raid, and another about a robbery/police chase. I explained these dreams in detail to my sister and later saw it on the news...the scenes exactly as in my dreams.

The most recent example was about 12 years ago. I was working for several years in an offce setting and had gotten to know some of my co-workers and their spouses quite well. I had a dream where I was my friends wife, and I was telling him (my co-worker) that I was going to have a baby and it was a boy. These types of dreams are much different than my 'normal' ones. In them, I am usually someone else. They are so clear, that like you said, I can remember all sensations; color/touch/smell and even taste. This particular dream was so strong that after about half of the next work day, I couldn't keep it in any longer. I broke down and told my friend about it. I prefaced it with the fact that it was going to sound really wierd...but i still was unprepared for his reaction. All color drained from his face and he sank down into a chair. I immediately felt horrible and apologized for upseting him. Except for the reason he was so shaken was because he had just gotten of the phone with his wife. She had just returned from a doctors appointment and told him for the first time that she was pregnant. The had a boy.

SO. I also have other family members with similar experiences and I am a firm believer in it. The problem is, we can't control it and have no way of knowing if they are premonitions for sure until after the fact.

My daughter tells me my little dog was alerting about an hour ago....so let's see if we have a smallish quake near me this evening.

Ears are ringing, dog is scared, all the signs are hitting me today.

Feels bad.

Post deleted by me because I posted in the wrong thread!

Sorry about that...

Mike

Just want to note for the record here that over in the "Predictions and Prophecies" forum, ATS member Dalke07 has posted a thread about his prediction of a possible Magnitude ~8 quake that he expects could occur around October 26, 2011. Full thread is here: Earthquake Predictions, Magnitude ~ 8 Around 26 October 2011, Gravitational Force of Moon, Supermoon

Please note that English is not Dalke07's first language, so make allowances for that when reading his posts.

Dalke07's time window for this prediction:

Today is 15 October, think can happen in next 20 days around 26 October 2011 ..

I take this to mean his time window runs from the post date (Oct 15) for 20 days, meaning until around Nov 3.

Dalke07's prediction is basically founded upon his observations of some prior events in relation to solar and lunar phases. He provides a fair amount of information by way of maps and data and for that reason, I thought it worthwhile to have his prediction noted here.

From the point of view of probability, it's not that hard to work out the odds of a mag 8 quake happening somewhere in the world in a given time frame purely by chance. Very roughly, there is about 1 mag 8-plus quake per year (world-wide). True, some years have none, other years have two or more, but one per year is a fair average.

The technical question is whether we take the huge Japan quake of March 11 into account or not, and if we do, how we treat it. I suppose we could say that it doesn't really matter as in the long-term view, that one event does not affect the average a great deal. Fundamentally it could be said that on a long-term statistical basis, in any 12-month period (calendar year or otherwise) the odds of a mag 8-plus quake are close to 100%. That is, if we consider the time since March 12, on average we'd expect one mag 8-plus before next March 12. As it's already mid-October, that effectively raises the odds as there are only 5 months till the middle of next March from Dalke07's prediction start-date.

To put it another way, the longer the time since any mag 8-plus quake, the shorter the time to the next one. That's a simple fact, but statistically it's a bit more complex: there have been periods even in the last few decades when we went much more than a full year without even a single mag 8-plus event. Even so, allowing for the statistical roughly one-per-year average (as it's actually a bit less), the 5 months remaining of an arbitrary 12-month period since mid-March give us around 150 days. As Dalke07 has given a 20-day time window, then the odds of the quake occurring within that time are 20/150, or about 1 in 7.5.

This gives a probability of P = 0.1333 (ie 13.33%)

The other way to go is to take a raw 12-month period that disregards any prior events but simply takes the prediction beginning date as a starting point. This gives 20/365, or close to 1 in 18. That equates to P = 0.055 (ie 5.55%. To be more precise, 20/365 works out at 5.48%)

Whichever way we look at it, the odds are not especially high and so if the quake occurs by Nov 3, it's worth noting and perhaps also worth following up on the methodology Dalke07 employs.

Mike

Is anyone feeling anything tonight? It's over ten hours since the 7.4 today.

My husband is still feeling awful! He almost had a seizure at work. Another one coming?

Anybody else?

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Feeling okay here, and usually if there's something big coming up then I get affected, as happened before the Japan quake in March and notably the quake in NZ in Feb.

I've had some contact from another member today. Reports feelings of dizziness. Can't mention the member's name because of T&Cs but is US-based.

There is also a thread started today by a member in AZ who reports unexplained dizziness and some other members have posted there that they are getting the same thing. Here's that thread: Dizzy feeling all day today.

Note the OP of that thread posted that he had a sleep and now feels ok. But another member up in NW OR reported similar feelings as well.

Now, these symptoms could be due to even mundane things like the start of flu. I had it three weeks ago and for the first day I felt dizzy and pretty bad. Then the usual flu stuff started. Or it could be due to something else, even in the local environment. But as we're getting reports like this from a lot of places there might be an external cause such as changes in the energy from the earth. It's know that before some big quakes, there are such changes and they are even able to measure them within the atmosphere in some cases. (Happened before the Japan quake, for example.)

So, about the only thing we can do is treat any physical symptoms as best we can and keep an eye out. If a big quake is coming I expect we'll see a major uptick in posts from people who just feel plain nervous and/or uneasy and don't know why, and plenty more who feel unwell, get ringing ears and also dizziness/vertigo. The evidence for that before the Japan quake can be found in several threads on ATS. Ditto more reports of animals acting strangely for the time of year and species. Ditto odd behaviour in pets...

I'd say for now we can keep a watching brief. Litle else we can do, really. Hope your husband feels better soon. Not nice having dizziness and vertigo, I know. Had it myself and hated it.

By the way, eating corn helps. It something to do with the melatonin in the corn. (Corn is a great source of melatonin.) Doesn't matter what form the corn is in, either. Corn flakes, corn on the cob, kernels from a can. Whatever. Sure, fresh is best but any corn will help. Not kidding. It really helps.

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Yes, his worst was right as the Japan quake hit. When I looked at him I thought he was having a heart attack! Thank goodness we found out about the earthquake connection. He didn't want to believe it at first, but now if he's at work & feels it, he calls to have me check USGS! So far as we can tell, the bigger the quake is going to be, the more symptoms he has & the stronger they are. Sometimes he feels like he's carrying a huge weight on his shoulders. So much so, that he can hardly walk. He doesn't like eqs controlling his life! I want to study it, graph it & document it! He's not a willing guinea pig! He won't even talk about it unless he's feeling especially bad.

I read about corn in one of the threads, but he's allergic to it. He takes melatonin at night to help him sleep, maybe he'll have to try a lower dose during the day when he's having 'quake syndrome'!

I don't usually feel anything that I know of, but lately I've been getting ringing in the ears again. Yesterday off & on, today too, but tonight it's constant. I guess time will tell!
The link to the dizziness thread was interesting. Seems widespread. We're having a family get together tomorrow, I'll have to ask around & see if anyone is feeling anything!
Thanks, Mike!

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Glad to help

About your husband: I know something of how he feels. The worst I have experienced longer-term started about two days before the big Asian quake and tsunami of Dec 26, 2004, namely on the morning of Dec 24. I woke up feeling very poorly and had this awful feeling of dread. During the day it just grew and grew.

That evening my wife was decorating our Christmas tree. I recall just sitting and watching her. I felt unable to help. Fortunately, she knows how I get these feelings sometimes and she understood and just went on with the tree. I actually recall saying something like, "It's going to be a disaster... It's going to be a catastrophe."

She asked me what would happen but I wasn't even sure. Okay, I sensed maybe a quake but the feelings were worse than any I'd ever known. And, I didn't know where. The most vital piece of knowledge, besides when, is where -- and I had no clue. If you check my prediction posts in this thread you'll see that usually I am very specific on locations, but this was a case where I couldn't figure it out. I only knew that it had to be coming very soon and it would be extremely bad.

The next day I could barely get out of bed. I did anyway but mid-afternoon I had to go and lie down. I hate resting in bed during the day. Once I'm up that's it. But I felt overwhelmed. I was a horrible, crushing feeling and it was as if I had no strength.

As I recall, late that evening the feeling lifted somewhat. While this is good for me and others who feel like this, it's also a bad sign because it means the event is now very near. Charlotte King actually calls it the "Uh-oh moment" (if I've quoted her correctly). It's the moment when you begin to feel better and you know that means that whatever it was that brought those feelings on you, it's now changed in some way and so the event is moving to its ultimate stage.

The quake hit around midnight that night, my time. When I woke in the morning and switched on the TV to check the news on CNN (we had it in English on satellite TV), the first reports were coming in. The full effects of the tsunami were not even realized at that stage.

But all through that day, as more and more video was shown from many places and we all began to see what a massive catastrophe this was, I knew that in the future I had to watch especially for those feelings.

The next time I felt close to that bad was just before the Japan quake of March 11. The feeling built over several days but wasn't as terrible as what I'd had in 2004. On the night of March 10 into 11, I couldn't sleep well and got up in the wee hours and had some milk and sat a while, wondering what was coming and where. I went back to bed and finally slept -- at 4 am. The quake hit Japan at 6:46 am (my time).

I even found a post where I mentioned this fact. It's here, in another ATS thread.

Also, back in this post in the present thread I go into the feelings aspect and related issues as well.

Anyway, back to March 11 this year: when I got up and checked the USGS maps and saw that huge square by Japan, I went straight on to ATS to get the news. This is my first stop for news these days -- not CNN or any other TV news network.

Apologies for the long post, but I hope you see what I mean about how people can be affected. Your husband is far from alone. It can be very hard to deal with and some people get more strongly affected than others. So, if he can take a little extra melanin during the day that might help -- but naturally consult your health care professional first. Alernatively, oatmeal is also an excellent source of natural melanin, so if' he's not allergic to oatmeal then give that a try.

And please -- if you can post on here whenever he's getting bad symptoms then that will be helpful.

Best regards,

Mike