An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by kattraxx


4.1 Mw - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 4.1 Mw
Date-Time 4 Jan 2010 14:24:53 UTC
4 Jan 2010 06:24:53 near epicenter
Depth 16 km
Distances 15 km (9 miles) NNW (348 degrees) of Redway, CA
35 km (22 miles) SE (144 degrees) of Rio Dell, CA
37 km (23 miles) ESE (103 degrees) of Petrolia, CA
66 km (41 miles) SSE (157 degrees) of Eureka, CA
279 km (173 miles) NW (313 degrees) of Sacramento, CA

A moderate EQ in N. California near Petrolia early this morning.

[edit on 1/4/10 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Today its a bit rumbling anywhere. Take a look at Iris, there was also a strange peak in the earths magnetic field.

www.iris.edu...

Can't seem to edit my last post, so.... on the 4.1 near Petrolia... six days out from my original post on the 29th. I was beginning to wonder.... but I couldn't get N. California off my mind.

As many know, the Mendocino Triple Junction offshore here is capable of producing large mag EQ's and has in the past. A large mag EQ setting up here would definitely be a reason for the sea lions to bug out.

A little history: Mendocino Triple Junction

reply to post by cushycrux


Yes, I receive earthquake notifications from the USGS website. While I do pick up precursors for EQ's in distant places, I mostly concern myself with the Ring of Fire, specifically the U.S. west coast. However, if I felt precursors for any other area that are intense enough, I would post the prediction here.

Our routine on this thread has been to reference the original prediction post when posting the subsequent EQ, which is the reason I only referenced the 4.1 EQ near Petrolia, N. California today. Because that was the specific area (Petrolia, CA) I mentioned six days ago in the original post.

Some ways back in this thread, I believe JustMike figured some odds, so we decided we would not count any EQ below 4.0 as a 'hit' since they are far more rare than anything below that. JustMike can explain the statistical probabilities to you. We also don't predict EQ's for areas that rock constantly, like Alaska, or Chile, unless we feel it's going to be major.

There are times when we get precursors that might indicate something around 4.0, then it turns out to be two or three mag 3.0 EQ's. Like I said, it's a learning process. But the point of trying to predict EQ's is really just to warn people to be on guard that week; best case scenario, the large mag EQ doesn't hit, and worst case, hopefully, it does but people were warned and prepared. That's really the bottom line.

Just to follow on from what Kat said about the statistical probabilities. While it's a matter of "horses for courses", as the world is not the same all over and some places get hundreds of smallish quakes per day (eg Southern Cal) while others get almost none (like where I live), we generally don't predict for very low-mag quakes. That's why even if there are quakes all over the place, that in fact is the norm because there are quakes every day. Lots of them. The trick is working out where they'll be and how big they'll be and that's what we're about. The small ones mostly don't matter unless they're a swarm (which can has its own significance), but we are trying to find reasonable methods to predict ones that could have some impact on people and nature.

Take the region Kat focused on. It gets a lot of quakes, but most of them are so small they wouldn't even be noticed. They're in the mag 1 to mag 2 range. Broadly speaking, there are ten times as many mag 2's as there are 3's, and ten times as many 3's as 4's. By the time we get up to mag 7, we expect on average about 1 per month -- world-wide. Mag 8's average out at about 1 or two per year world-wide. As for mag 9's, thankfully they only come along every 20 or 30 years or so on average.

Now here's the most important point: if there had been say a mag 2-point something quake in the Petrolia region, Kat would not have claimed that as a "hit", because in that part of the world it's a given that you'll likely get one every week and maybe even several. But a mag 3-something is less likely. You might get one in a given week but you could just as well go a few weeks without one. We've seen this happen in that region. By the time you get to a mag 4-something, it is not a given that one will occur within a week of Kat or I (or someone else) predicting it -- in that specific region. There's a reasonable chance there'll be one soon, but it could be a month off.

So that's why Kat's prediction has validity. It states the region quite clearly and the 4.1 occurred there within a reasonable time frame (less than a week): statistically it was not so likely to occur in that time frame purely by chance.

However, if we look at Indonesia, for example, I can tell you right now that they'll have a mag 4-something at least within a week. It'll be a miracle if they don't! In that part of the world, the locals don't even bat an eye for anything less than a mag 5. So, if someone predicts a mag 4 for Indonesia within the next week, it's not really a prediction. If however I were to predict a mag 7 there within a week, then that's very low in the probabilities. With only about a dozen a year world-wide, the odds of one within the next month are (obviously) around 1 in 12. In the next week -- one in about 50 or so. And that's for anywhere in the world. But for just that specific region, the odds of a mag 7 in the next week are much longer.

When we analyze data for quakes, we don't just study their magnitude, but also their frequency. We look at the "historical seismicity" maps for that region and we get a good idea of how active it is, and how likely certain-sized quakes are. We also consider other factors, such as remote triggering, volcanics in the region, behaviour of animals (whale beachings, frogs swarms etc) and so forth. Then we use this knowledge to balance out what we "pick up on" in our own various ways.

So, it's a combination of the esoteric and the scientific, really.

Mike

[edit on 4/1/10 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike

Thankyou to yourself and Kattraxx for those last two posts,i appreciate the effort that goes into all of this.
For the past four days it has been quiet,i am putting this down to the freeze that we are experiencing at the moment.Although i do worry when the time comes for the defrost.Certainly could get interesting over here.

Where i am situated is apparantly at the edge of an ancient fault re-awakened after the Lincolnshire eq.Triassic sandstone and lots of lead and coal mines.
I will have to find the links for this info.I lost them after a hard-drive fail.
I had a lot of occurances before the eq like water pressure issues in my house and sulphur smelling clouds,i posted a thread on this. The ear pressure i suffered for a week and sleeplessness ended on that morning.
This house buckled and a family friend who lives a couple of streets away had to be moved due to her house disappearing downwards.
I will say its funny you should mention about the chimney pots though as last week i could hear bits falling behind my fireplace.

Well, been ages since I've posted on ATS but Kat mentioned that this thread was 'alive' again so hello all. I won't rehash what's been discussed recently except to say that I am at a loss as to how we have not seen more activity in the PNW, specifically Oregon. Have had several precursors for that area over the last couple weeks, and today the temporary blurry vision showed up again. The 4 banger in NorCal this morning just doesn't fit with that symptom for me and I have to expect something offshore Oregon or perhaps a little further north and inland in WA state. Pretty much all the other symptoms I've had in the last couple weeks can be explained by now...but still holding out a wild card for Oregon. We shall see.

It is just after 4am here, I am still in northwest GA BTW, I am having strong nausea, my knees hurt terribly, middle back too. Just thought I would put this one down, I don't usually get the middle back pain.

reply to post by space cadet

Spacecadet, do you have any idea from previous experience what your symptoms might relate to? I mean, if there is a specific geographical location?

Just a note for anyone relating to what I said earlier, about physical sensory precursors and their relevance. Charlotte King, the one who invented the term "Geosensology" and who had been the most studied by scientists in this regard, says that earthquake sensitives all over the world will experience the same symptoms for the same event, regardless of how far it is from them. While this may be true in respect of sensitives who are affected by seismic/volcanic events in the same way as she is (and more research would be needed to support that assertion, I feel), that doesn't mean all earthquake sensitives are affected in this one way. I'm sure Charlotte would agree with this. For example, I'm sensitive as well but I have not been able to directly correlate what I sense to what Charlotte identifies. That's the point I was trying to make really, but I didn't put it so well.

I still feel, though, that we also have to take into account local influences, along with out own general health. Charlotte advises likewise in respect of health matters. She cautions us not to assume that a certain pain or symptom has to be related to picking up on seismic/volcanic activity and that if we are concerned then we should consult medical professionals to rule out possible medical causes.

Finally I'd like to make it clear that I'm not criticizing Charlotte in what I say. Far from it; she has been a true pioneer and the data that several respected scientific institutions have collected from testing her leaves no doubt that she can do exactly what she says she does. (Just look up "Project Migraine" for example. Good place to start for those who are not familiar with Charlotte.)

Mike

Magnitude 4.1 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2010 January 07 18:09:35 UTC

Epicenter: Milpitas, CA near south bay on east side

SF Bay Area EQ

Whale beachings in and around the Pacific generally happen before SF bay area EQ's. Took a while, but there it is. I wonder about the sea lions too.

[edit on 1/7/10 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kattraxx
Magnitude 4.1 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2010 January 07 18:09:35 UTC

Epicenter: Milpitas, CA near south bay on east side

we may expect at least a 5.6 in SF CALI within 48 hours .

reply to post by alysha.angel


Hi alysha. Can I ask how you determine your predictions? Is it via the Charlotte King geosensology method? Or another? Just curious. What type of precursors are you picking up right now?

I agree with you. I was just emailing a friend near Milpitas, CA who alerted me to the SF bay area EQ when it happened. I told her to be on guard because I'm still getting precursors for that area. Could be aftershocks, but I don't think so--- usually, the precursors pretty much go away after the main shock. Don't ask me how it works; I just know it does.

Hi JustMike, space cadet and soma!

Forgot to mention that Charlotte King informed me yesterday that some of the missing SF bay area sea lions have shown up off the coast of Oregon. Some of them were tagged, so that's how they can follow them.

[edit on 1/7/10 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by alysha.angel

 

Hi alysha. Can I ask how you determine your predictions? Is it via the Charlotte King geosensology method? Or another? Just curious. What type of precursors are you picking up right now?

I agree with you. I was just emailing a friend near Milpitas, CA who alerted me to the SF bay area EQ when it happened. I told her to be on guard because I'm still getting precursors for that area. Could be aftershocks, but I don't think so--- usually, the precursors pretty much go away after the main shock. Don't ask me how it works; I just know it does.

Hi JustMike, space cadet and soma!

Forgot to mention that Charlotte King informed me yesterday that some of the missing SF bay area sea lions have shown up off the coast of Oregon. Some of them were tagged, so that's how they can follow them.

[edit on 1/7/10 by kattraxx]

tis simple really , sea lions dont vacate the area for a puny 4.1 a week in advance and my gut tells me that its a foreshock on top of that SF is over due for a major quake .

reply to post by alysha.angel


So true. And apparently, the sea lions went all the way to the Oregon coast, along with another group of sea lions from the Oregon coast. I believe Charlotte said they all, both groups, moved to another location on the Oregon coast.

Thanks for the response. I'm always interested to hear how others come to their predictions. Sometimes, it has more to do with a gut feeling than anything else.

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by alysha.angel

 

So true. And apparently, the sea lions went all the way to the Oregon coast, along with another group of sea lions from the Oregon coast. I believe Charlotte said they all, both groups, moved to another location on the Oregon coast.

Thanks for the response. I'm always interested to hear how others come to their predictions. Sometimes, it has more to do with a gut feeling than anything else.

glad im not the only one with this same feeling , and to add to that for over a year now iv been dreaming about a major quake in northen california or a volcanic eruption there both have yet to happen

reply to post by alysha.angel


I hate to say it, because I'm from the SF bay area and a lot of my friends are there, but it is certainly overdue for a major EQ, the last one being the Loma Prieta 7.2 in October of 1989.

Right now, I'm only getting moderate precursors for them, which is generally normal-- that the precursors last for a bit after the main shock, then go away before all the aftershocks are finished. Kind of a fine line there, and hard to walk. My gut says the precursors should be gone by now since the aftershocks so far are few and very low mags.

Like I said, just to be safe, I have told friends in the SF bay to be on guard, stay off BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit system that goes under the bay) and off bridges, etc. for a few days.

[edit on 1/7/10 by kattraxx]

Hello again,i finally found one of the links.Landslides BGS

The landslide reported is actually a reactivation of part of an older and larger landslide

And this link is a pdf report from the above link.Scroll down and there is a map halfway down which shows the red areas.I am not far from one of the problem spots.
pdf
I am trying to understand what is going on around me,not too clued up on all of this.These symptoms have only been happening for the past two years.Other than that i have had no experience with ground wobbles.

to add

The Derby 1:50 000 geological map area is located to the north of the city of Derby, incorporating the northern half of Derby itself, along with the western districts of the city of Nottingham (Figure 1). The southern margin of the Derby sheet is underlain by Triassic bedrock consisting of the Mercia Mudstone and Sherwood Sandstone Groups, which form relatively low relief and rolling agricultural land. To the west and north west of the map sheet, the underlying Namurian rocks of the Millstone Grit Group produce relatively steep-sided valleys and slopes and it is this terrain that contains the highest frequency of landslides. The central portion of the map area is underlain by the Pennine Lower and Middle Coal Measures Formations of Carboniferous (Westphalian) age, which form the southern limb of the East Pennine Coalfield. These produce a relatively undulating landscape, with locally oversteepened valley sides where mudstones outcrop between stronger sandstone beds. The eastern sector of the map is occupied by Permian dolostones, mudstones and sandstones of the Zechstein Group, which unconformably overlie the Pennine Middle Coal Measures Formation. These produce a relatively subdued topography, with gently sloping hillsides and valleys.

[edit on 7-1-2010 by tracey ace]

reply to post by alysha.angel

We felt that one here at work in Santa Cruz county.

I feel like something's really up.

reply to post by tracey ace


So you live near this area? Did you say there have been small earthquakes as well, or just the landslides? Sorry, I can't recall.

The photograph of the damage to the old stone wall is very dramatic. The scientists seem to believe it has to do with underlying shale, steep hillsides, old mine shafts and a lot of rain. Am I understanding this correctly? Have you been directly affected?

Beautiful country, by the way.

Originally posted by blujay
reply to post by alysha.angel

 

We felt that one here at work in Santa Cruz county.

I feel like something's really up.

i used to live in Santa cruz county , and i know what it feels like .