America's Economy

reply to post by Agit8dChop


The failure risk is no longer in the market. After BSC collapsed, we were literally sitting around waiting to see who was next. That no longer is the case. That was the worst case scenario. If BAC walks away from CFC and CFC collapses, big deal. Market can handle that.

If WM collapses, the market can handle that too.

Now...the only thing left I fear is AIG. AIG is very scary right now. I have n o positions in it, but am very interested in building one. I believe that all the write downs they are taking right now can actually lead to blow out numbers in Q2. Pay close attention to what Hank Greenberg does here. He founded the company and ran it for years, before he was forced out. He could be a real pain in the A$$ for the company here, or he could come to the rescue.

FNM and FRE......they should fail. ABK and MBI they should fail. (ABK and MBI were my biggest winners last year on the short side). RDN, MTG and PMI....they should fail too.

If I were the FED, I would actually role ABK, MBI, MTG, RDN, and PMI up into 1 company. Then I would file a pre-packaged bankruptcy and sell their books off. Let Warren Buffet run the whole damn municipal bond insurance program. Those guys deviated from their course and started insurance total CRAP.

Like I have said. I made all my money last year on the short side. I was long some stocks, but lost money in just about all those positions.

Long stocks now, but can turn that on a dime if things warrant it.

I do put my money where my mouth is, or is it vice versa?

interesting post and while I've agreed and sometimes disagreed with you before, here I'm not so sure, simply because I feel you're being too rash to declare that this economy is out of trouble. Time and perspective...
yours and mine may differ completely what you see as a turn around or a positive trend, I may look at just a hiccup in the downslide. I think the entire economic situation is still too fragile to say that all is well.

Originally posted by traderonwallst
The failure risk is no longer in the market. After BSC collapsed, we were literally sitting around waiting to see who was next. That no longer is the case. That was the worst case scenario. If BAC walks away from CFC and CFC collapses, big deal. Market can handle that.

So there have been no other major bank failures in the last month...whew!

lets talk about america's standard of living

it's going down for the average american

high oil and food prices are being fueled by loopholes and a disregard by the SEC to regulate the CFTC futures trading thanks to lobbying by greedy companies as well as the recent addition to include ICE futures trading in 2006, which made speculation all the more convenient.

supply and demand plays a role but oil was 20 5-6 years ago.
with supply demand issues we may be looking at 40 or so. Not 125. My guess is banks are borrowing cheaply and buying commodity futures to improve their balance sheets. The regulators are looking the other way.

Their are a lot less high growth assets so people pile into commodity's at the expense of the middle and lower classes. but such is life in this plutocracy.

The gov't numbers are a joke. All of them are politicized. The jobs numbers are the worst of the bunch. Real wages are diminishing and house prices are falling. Global companies are positioned best, domestic businesses will continue to cut jobs. The system is rotten, from the inside out, the last two bubbles have gotten more and more desperate. Lending to those who you know can't pay and inflating food and energy prices are ripe with moral hazard and desperation. Such is life in the world where the doors revolve smoothly between public and private office and people only care about getting re-elected in the short term.

Develop a Plan B, Findsome with or buy some land with fresh water, lay low, learn how to catch and prepare fish and grow some crops, buy a gun a bunch of ammo, pay your taxes (not cause they are legal but because this is not a fair world and if you don't you are asking for trouble) buy some silver and or gold (or the equivilant in 24k jewelry) to protect your savings against a rapid depreciation in the dollar ( and then learn to appreciate life, family, nature. If you have a job, get on the ball and show your boss why you are helpful and worth paying (in these tough economic times).

I imagne that interested members have already read; Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know...and DimensionalDetective' popular thread by the same title.

If so, you were aquainted with the work of John Williams (shadowstats). Last week, Stock Shotz conducted an audio interview with Mr. Williams. Truth seekers may find it worthwhile.

Scroll to May 9.

Hey Wall Street, just wondering if you have any new insight for us? Are you familiar with the market term "Hindy"? Was Friday a Hindy sign? LoL...I'll revive your thread again after the upcoming crash...

Crazy stuff in Foreign exchange and bond futures tonight. Asia down across the board. It's been nice to be a bear past couple of US trading sessions. NASTY, NASTY action in the financials XLF flirted with 52week low today while financials across the board got beat, and oh my god! Washinton Mutual down 17% Monday after a bloody day on Friday. Citigroup and Wachovia share prices are under $20 and Bank of America sub $30.
Haven't the financials been saying crisis over, we don't need to raise anymore money, and then raising capital less than 2 weeks later? The action in Washington Mutual is particularly interesting to me because they are on my short list of "banks most people have heard of who could blow up". There have been a couple of smaller banks get FDIC treatment recently (in MN and AK), but WAMU is something that I think would test the limits of FDIC's abillity to insure deposits and the willingness of people to keep their money in the bank. IF WAMU goes down, it will be nasty.

Lehman could get a "Bear Stearns" style bailout this weekend, and I think G.S. will be next in a month or two. WaMu is toast...as is the market. I told WallStreetTrader guy where to go for an education on these things...Ticker Forum.

not only is Abu Dhabi and other Gulf States in the the 6 month process of de-pegging their economies from the USD.

Abu Dhabi has a SWF Soverign Wealth Fund, which i read yesterday was in the first stages of buying the Iconic 'Chrysler Building'...
with the stacks of continuing devaluing USD they have in their treasury...

if the US economy and dollar are so secure--- tell us why many of these foreign SWFs are using their USD reserves to buy actual, physical assets?!


imho, the writings on the wall, the economy is getting 'pieced out' like a junkyard automobile,

related reading: www.theinternationalforecaster.com...
he's a favorite of mine,
(sorry i forgot the 'the' in the address)

[edit on 12-6-2008 by St Udio]

to revisit my earlier post that mentioned the dreaded "R" word...
Rationing


even the blog by john galt has come to the same conclusion i had,
that Rationing will be the new American paradigm,

rampant consumerism & the former way to realize one's American Dream
by excessive credit is gone out the window...
Oh, and the American Dream might still be had,

but only by the well heeled and connected elites. !



see: www.johngaltfla.com...


[edit on 12-6-2008 by St Udio]

I don't suspect our "Wall St. Trader" will be back to this thread again. I was hoping he would be correct...things aren't looking good though.

if your not out of the overpriced stock market yet,
then expect about -500 points per week losses till it levels off around 9000
(the DOW just broke the 12,750 resistance/bottom this week,
ending around 12,300)


Wouldn't you know it... on Monday the 23rd of June, i sent my ROTH account another $50. for my Gold & Precious Metal acct. and the gold index shot up $35+ on Thur & Fri..... dang my timing, I should have sent the check last Thursday so i could have bought much cheaper shares.



the "global economic analysis" site notes that several bleak conditions are about to befall the economy

the FDIC has 90 banks on the watch-list, with 1,200 max. bankruptcy possible
CNN reports that city & state govt jobs may be cut by a min of 45,000 and a upper figure of 200,000
BoA is terminating 7,500
Citi is axing more than 6.500
the financial industry is lopping off 175,000 heads

~these are just a few items & trends out there~
see: globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...
see: www.theinternationalforecaster.com...



about the only way to 'RE-SET' the fiat dollar, credit, imports, trade, markets is to have a limited, strategic nuclear conflaguration
(Iran is a likely target
or Pakistan is a likely primer for this nuke action)
and all the world will quickly fall in line with the dictates of an Imperial Western Bloc, led by the USA

(as one possible fictional futuristic dystopia)


[edit on 29-6-2008 by St Udio]

the other threads about
' banks collapsing in weeks' or ''economy crippled...& congress vacations'
are too specific or focused, so here on Monday morning (the beginning of the 3rd quarter) i see another element/factor that will bring down the markets.

The market futures are already at NASDAQ -29...DOW -111...S&P negative

because a lot of 401K and fund managers are having many, many people pulling out of their stock fund positions and rolling-over their remaining money into money-market funds/certificates or US Treasuries as a way to 'save' at least some of their retirement money.

The man-on-the-street (women too) don't seem to be heeding the MSM talking heads on the TV financial shows telling us that now is the time to buy stocks...at these bargain basement prices ==== hogwash the public says!

Asian, European markets are in a tailspin because of their USA market exposures...
there's a major, major, reconfiguration underway... perhaps much of the 401K redemptions might go into local & regional bank CDs (certificates of deposit) that are IRA compliant... as these banks are upping the rates to+5%, and thats more than the -10% return their 'managed 401K's have done so far this year!

the outlook for stocks is for another 10% loss... so, i think the masses are making the right move in the present situation.

maybe the supposed thousands of bank collapses (an exaggerated # from a questionable Fortis forecaster) won't transpire as feared.
Or maybe the gold & PM funds will increase exponentially, which is my hope

here it is Wednesday July 2nd, '08
and the markets tanked another 166++ points (dollars)

it does not look like that 5oo point average loss will happen this week !
.... but keep in mind i spoke of a weekly average loss of 500 points in the DOW until it reached the more realistic level of value of -> DOW 9,000