The next bubble: You ain't seen nothing yet!

As the following article describes, we are an economy living from bubble to bubble. Think the housing crash is bad? See what is likely in store on the next bubble relative to alternative energy.

The next bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash

...

There is one industry that fits the bill: alternative energy, the development of more energy-efficient products, along with viable alternatives to oil, including wind, solar, and geothermal power, along with the use of nuclear energy to produce sustainable oil substitutes, such as liquefied hydrogen from water. Indeed, the next bubble is already being branded. Wired magazine, returning to its roots in boosterism, put ethanol on the cover of its October 2007 issue, advising its readers to forget oil; NBC had a “Green Week” in November 2007, with themed shows beating away at an ecological message and Al Gore making a guest appearance on the sitcom 30 Rock. Improbably, Gore threatens to become the poster boy for the new new new economy: he has joined the legendary venture-capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, which assisted at the births of Amazon.com and Google, to oversee the “climate change solutions group,” thus providing a massive dose of Nobel Prize–winning credibility that will be most useful when its first alternative-energy investments are taken public before a credulous mob. Other ventures—Lazard Capital Markets, Generation Investment Management, Nth Power, EnerTech Capital, and Battery Ventures—are funding an array of startups working on improvements to solar cells, to biofuels production, to batteries, to “energy management” software, and so on.

Total market value: Alternative energy and infrastructure. Estimated fictitious value of next bubble compared with previous bubbles

The candidates for the 2008 presidential election, notably Obama, Clinton, Romney, and McCain, now invoke “energy security” in their stump speeches and on their websites. Previously, “energy independence” was more common, and perhaps this change in terminology is a hint that a portion of the Homeland Security budget will be allocated for alternative energy, a potential boon for startups and for FIRE.

More valuable than campaign rhetoric, however, is legislation. The Energy Policy Act of 2005, a massive bill known to morning commuters for extending daylight savings time, contained provisions guaranteeing loans for alternative-energy businesses, including nuclear-power technology. The bill authorizes $200 million annually for clean-coal initiatives, repeals the current 160-acre cap on coal leases, offers subsidies for wind energy and other alternative-energy producers, and promises $50 million annually, over the life of the bill, for a biomass grant program.

You MUST read More...

One of the best articles I have read in a very long time. It's very long, but I consider this a MUST read.

You'll be surprised by what's in it.

I promise.



EDIT:

I couldn't help myself...

Look at these, and just tell me the Harper's article isn't dead on.


Nancy Pelosi and Newt Gingrich Commercial on Climate Change



Pat Robertson and Al Sharpton Commercial on Climate Change

I think Eric Janszen has this one right.


[edit on 29-4-2008 by loam]

let's just hope the bubble bursts soon enough, before all these ethanol factories eat the world's entire corn reserves. as long as they remain liquid, they will desperately try to redeem their sunken investments at our cost.

the whole deal is of course, bogus, any way you look at it

www.abovetopsecret.com...


the tragedy is that people who were right all along were ignored by decision makers in the government and will now pay for this foolishness for ages to come. we'll be stuck with an impeccable scheme of air tax accounting, but without a reliable electric grid and aging powerplants and new tech which is neither environmentally friendly not economical.

of course, the blame does not fall on the technologies themselves, rather their centralised, one-size-fits-all bulldoze-style implementation, but even that detail will probably be lost once the perilous trend reverses and suddenly anything that went wrong will be blamed on alternative energy.



PS: i know exactly when the bubble will burst: the day subsidies will be cut. gov'ts created the craze, so they'll have to kill it, too. oh well, better late than never i guess.

reply to post by Long Lance


It wont happen anytime soon. Fuel prices will (pardon the pun) continue to fuel the craze. Eventually, I expect to see government regulation that mitigates the speculation in the food-stuffs markets, but that will drive even more money more intensely into the alternative energy sector.

We are just seeing the beginning of the next 3-7 year cycle.

Just look at the grants the DoE is giving:

Link.

This stuff is only just getting started.

To be honest.. if i had MONEY .. like, enough to buy whatever car I'd like within reason, or under $25k new, I'd purchase a turbo diesel Volkswagen 4cylinder motor vehicle in an instant. I know, diesel is just as bad as gasoline, it costs even more than gasoline per gallon, but hear me out, the pros outweigh the cons.

A Volkswagen TDI as they are called get an average of 40mpg in the city, thats 40 miles per gallon in the city. And more like 45-47mpg on the highway. I'll gladly pay 30 cents more per gallon than regular gas if it lasts me twice as long, or longer. Another thing is this: much, much less people use diesel compared to gasoline at the gas stations. This is evident by the 10 or more gasoline pumps compared to the 2 to 4 diesel pumps at any given station. There's not going to be a diesel shortage if there is a gasoline shortage. Poeple will be stuck .. unless they drive a diesel powered car.

I know it is going back in time a bit on the tech tree, but I really think the turbo diesel engine got completely overlooked by the car industry when it came out, years before this crisis came to a head. Now they should re-evaluate turbo diesel technology for more vehicles, and more brands.

It is not a total solution, and more like a patch, however, we need action now, and fast, and this technology is known and can be manufactured quickly, we have made it before .. well, certain companies have. In Europe I hear even BMW has a turbo-diesel version of every gasoline powered car model they sell, and not only do the turbo-diesel's get better mileage, they even clock a bit faster on acceleration!

So, mass produce turbo diesel as the de-facto engine for the low end car, get rid of the archetypical 1.6ltr to 2.2ltr 4cylinder gasoline motor as the de-facto engine for these 'cheap' or 'economical', or 'import' cars. This would take so much stress off of the gasoline supply for drivers that it would be incredible. But, they don't want to institute such massive changes.. and I'm sure it isn't the most efficient money maker either.. or else they'd already be doing it.

These damn companies need to stop looking at what is cheapest or what makes the most profit when they are making ridiculous profits while the people who buy gasoline are getting less and less for their money. And they have these cars that run on this crap that they still owe $10,000 dollars on, and they don't want to switch up right away. But I bet when they are READY to buy a new car, if the better technology is available right there on the showroom floor or out in the lot, and it is affordable, they'll take it. So everything must be phased with these car companies I guess.

Me? I'm picking up a 1989 BMW 2.5ltr that gets 28mpg from my buddy for $2,500, selling my 1994 BWM 2.5ltr with a busted motor that gets no mpg for $1,000. When I get some bills paid and im making better money I will definitely be looking into a used turbo diesel as my next-next vehicle.. lol.

edit: excuse me, that wont be necessary as we will all be dead from Nibiru's passing on 12/21/12 ..

[edit on 4/29/2008 by runetang]

CASE AND POINT:

In today's Financial Times:

Gore investment body closes $683m fund

The investment vehicle headed by Al Gore has closed a new $683m fund to invest in early-stage environmental companies and has mounted a robust defence of green investing.

The Climate Solutions Fund will be one of the biggest in the growing market for investment funds with an environmental slant.

Don't get me wrong. I think initially this we help us a great deal, but I also believe we will see where our next hangover comes from.

Nice find that is a fantastic article

There is a reason why they call it "GREEN"

reply to post by loam


He, he, loam I posted a link to that next bubble on he energy sector during the threads on the housing crash.

Thanks for making a thread on the topic it deserved.

Blame the speculators for the next mess.

Is supposed to crash within the next 5 years of earlier as the profiteers are getting too greedy.

reply to post by UnD3rg0uND


I thought so.

reply to post by Alxandro


Indeed. If you're sitting on some cash, now is the time to get in.

reply to post by marg6043


Really? Can you link to it? I'd like to read it.

[edit on 29-4-2008 by loam]

Here are the articles,

Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb'
Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen

www.marketwatch.com...

The next bubble

harpers.org...

Time To Move On to the Next Bubble: Clean Energy

www.renewableenergyworld.com...

This articles are from January and february.

reply to post by marg6043


So cool. Thank you.

I'm actually relieved there are still more bubbles to come. Maybe that buys us time for the bozos to get their acts together and figure out how to make the volatility go away....

[Loam hears lyrics with the words "wishful thinking" off in the distance.]


[edit on 29-4-2008 by loam]

reply to post by loam


It takes a while before the rising crude oil price cause the rise in gasoline prices. It's the time that it takes from processing the crude oil to gasoline. So I don't think high gasoline prices has peaked yet.

High gasoline prices contribute a lot to inflation, food price and all. It's going to be very nasty if this thing get out of control.

reply to post by loam


Rather like how Americans are generally busy chasing the next trend to the exclusion of all else. Don't you think??
I am sure there is some sociological thing there.

*trends meaning fashion, music, cars, etc*

[edit on 30-4-2008 by WraothAscendant]