Schoolboy corrects boffin calculations

cmm,
Sorry I didn't note this thread and reposted same thing.
BP

Originally posted by Allred5923

As for NASA's facilities and faculties, I would have to believe that they are alot smarter than what is portrayed of them here in this thread, this is thier profession's and they are bound to make mistakes, "To err is to be human" but those guy's and gals are very careful of what they say and how they present it to the public before official releases are made to the public. I am not saying that NASA hasn't had thier share of conspiracy related situations, but something as relevant as an asteroid/comet/meteor, I really don't think it would make a hooie of differance of letting the public know ASAP.

Thanks for the replies to this thread. But thought NASA had people over look the calculations and then checked them again and again just to make sure they were correct before making any discission. I only know they are human but for a number of people to get this wrong is a huge worry!

N.A.S.A.=not another stupid announcement..

Originally posted by Essan

Originally posted by DancedWithWolves
Can't wait to hear NASA's response to this...

Which is ....... that it's all a hoax!

It turns out this story is a fabrication and AFP didn't check the facts with NASA as I suspected. According to the blog Cosmos4u, they talked with Don Yeomans at NASA's NEO office and this is what Yeoman's said about the news story of a 13-year old boy correcting NASA's estimates of Apohpis impacting earth: "We have not corresponded with this young man and this story is absurd, a hoax or both. During its 2029 Earth close approach, Apophis will approach the Earth to about 38,900 km, well inside the geosynchronous distance at 42,240 km. However, the asteroid will cross the equatorial belt at a distance of 51,000 km - well outside the geosynchronous distance. Since the uncertainty on Apophis' position during the Earth close approach is about 1500 km, Apophis cannot approach an Earth satellite. Apophis will not cross the moon's orbital plane at the Moon's orbital distance so it cannot approach the moon either."

www.universetoday.com...


Worth noting that any tiny change in orbit caused by hitting a satellite would as likely deflect Apophis away from Earth - which I guess should have set alarm bells ringing from the start.

Is there anyone in ATS who or could maybe be interested in crunching the numbers to see if the 13 year old is correct.

May I sugest that we get work together on this to see what the outcome could be! Just imagine how the international community and media fallout if someone could prove them wrong.

My take on their "response" is that the 13 y/o is absolutely, positively correct.

NASA, however, is bound by a document (anyone willing to look it up, i might just be thinking sci-fi here) that if any significant threat that would cause mass hysteria among people is detected, it is to be suppressed immediately until the "Higher ups" decide what to do about it. I believe the document was pertaining to UFO's, but this could fall under it.

So, yes, i believe the kid has it bang on. NASA is just covering their ass so that people don't start looting and committing mass suicide knowing that it is coming.

Here's the official response posted on NASA's website.

NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations

WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.

Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.

Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.


- end -

NASA Home

NASA and the ESA have both denied that the kid ever correcting them and said that their calculations are the correct ones. As i Dont have either of their proofs in front of me and dont know to much about physics I would have to say that it is impossible to draw a conclusion based on the math of the issue. However I have to say that the asteroid in mention, the 99942 Apophis asteroid had been calculated by NASA's own to be either 1 in 300 or 1 in 233 meaning that they assumed worse then our kid in the story. This was back in 2004. However in 2006 it missed a "gravatational Keyhole" that would be requried to set it up to hit Earth. If this asteroid was going to hit us then amateur astronomers, professional university types, arm chair physicists, some one else would have put it together besides some kid. The only reason this story got any press is because of the whole "kids smarter then the rocket scientist" element.

reply to post by squidbones


Nasa and Esa both are funded by governments. Of course they would say a 13 year old is incorrect they would not want to cause mass hysteria, this in turn would cause a major meltdown in world economies would no one would go to work and government's couldn't control the population.

As I stated previously I do beleive that as a community there is enough people on ATS to crack this and get the true results.

Does anyone or can anyone get a copy of this 13 year olds project post it then we give it a go. What is the worst that could happen.

Originally posted by Griff
reply to post by Essan

 

Hoax?

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

news.yahoo.com...

Unless Yahoo News is in the business of perpetuating hoaxes.

Do you honestly think journalists know dick about what they're talking about when it comes to science? Hint: most of 'em majored in journalism. Yahoo news reports what other people report. Major newspapers report hoaxes all the time. See Steorn's perpetual motion scam, all sorts of things in medicine, and some of Troy Hurtubirse's stuff. They don't turn a critical eye to anything. They just report what people say. News organizations rarely employ fact-checkers these days.

reply to post by mdiinican


I think that all news groups would be interested in this particular scenario of chance. I don't , however, believe that they were just printing something just to be printing falsified statements from a NASA release of such a touchy and impactful event, so, I do believe they know just as much as the next news paper or article to be printed about this subject. Even if the 13 yr. old does exist with his explanation of probable miscalculations, seem's he had the mathematics for another rare and strange scenario for a different event.IMHO....

In a case like this, I would go with NASA. One, NASA has the advantage of knowing about Apophis. A 13 year old boy does not. Where would he get composition of the asteroid? Trajectory? Speed? Earth's location at the time? And, the nice little advantage of having a few mainframes at your disposal to do the math for you. There are not men with glasses and slide rulers working on this, but some of the best main frames on the planet working on this. Even the mainframe can't say where on Earth it would hit, but some 13 year old boy?

If NASA didn't want the public to know about it, they wouldn't have told anyone. People make comments like NASA = need another seven astronauts is very insulting to those who lost family members during missions. What they do is amazingly complex (if it was so easy, your neighbors would be tossing probes everywhere).

A bit of information, because I am amazed how many people don't know this. Yes, NASA hides information. Everyone complains about that (and I agree). But, they do not launch the most objects into space. The United States Air Force launches far more. Even over a hundred a month. Ever hear the results of what they find? Did you know that all information NASA releases to the public is approved by the USAF first?

Take a look at the flow of information and complain about the source, not the mouth. And don't insult those who died exploring.

The full story:

cosmos4u.blogspot.com...

Worth adding that there are 2 clues in the original news story - as replicated around the world - that give it away. Firstly, any impact with a satellite may also mean apophis is less likely to hit earth and secondly, the real giveaway, was this:

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean

which is of course all complete nonsense.

(how does an asteroid 'create' a ball or iron and iridium and how can anyone know where it will hit? )