USA 2008: The Great Depression

reply to post by infinite


government reports do not include all the undocumented workers. anything coming out of or from our government is suspect, imo.

I'm so thankful that this recession, or depression (whichever is the correct term) hasn't affected my family in any way except for gas being higher and food being higher. My job is pretty stable, as is my husbands and I pray that it stays that way.

I do pray for those that aren't as lucky as me, and I hope that as a country we are able to pull ourselves together and elect someone with different values and connections then hillary or mccain. I really really hope that Obama wins. I don't think anything will change if Hillary or Mccain get into office. That of course is my 2 cents.

Tela

According to the GDP figure we are indeed not in a depression. According to them, we are barely in a recession.

But according to them, the inflation index has risen slightly, while my cost for diesel has gone to $4 a gallon, gasoline $3.20 a gallon, milk $3.80 a gallon, and eggs $1.50 a dozen or higher. All these prices are up at least 100% over a period of months.

The numbers are skewed, purposely. The inflation index has been adjusted to not include such things as food and fuel in the calculations. Likewise, the figures for job loss are based primarily on claims for unemployment. That means when someone is not eligible for unemployment, their job loss isn't counted. It's common for companies to find reasons to fire employees in order to downsize the workforce, and then simply not hire anyone to refill the position.

When a large company decides to eliminate 100 jobs at once, it counts. Should another company start a slow attrition-based downsizing, it does not. Most of the recent job losses are slow attrition-based downsizing.

The figures also do not mention what kind of jobs are available. I could stop driving and go to work at a local job tomorrow... making $7 an hour for working 20 hours a week. That's with no benefits. Our illustrious leaders call that an offset to unemployment figures; I call it ludicrous. I have a wife and two children. There is no way I can work that job and put even the simplest food on the table for them.

Someone asked what it would take to pull us out of this collapse. As I see it, it will take a complete collapse, and quite possibly an armed revolution. This is not my desire; in fact, I abhor the thought of taking up arms against my fellow citizens. It does appear to be the only possible outcome, though. May God help us all.

I have a small prediction I posted a while back on an undisturbed thread. It seems to be coming to pass. www.abovetopsecret.com... if you're interested.

TheRedneck

Sure is to bad more of us don't work for Exon, with 40.5 billion in profits maybe we wouldn't have to use food stamps

reply to post by deltaboy

long time no see Deltaboy, good to see ya. i can proclaim anything which i believe.

Are more people on food stamps because they need them or because the parameters for qualifying for food stamps have been consistently widened for the past 8 years or so and are now advertising them on Telefutura and Telemundo?

Are people losing their homes because they're suddenly losing their jobs and savings or because they didn't have any savings or a decent income in the first place and now their "interest only" loans are just telling them the truth they chose to ignore for 5 years or so: "You can't afford this so you shouldn't be buying it."?

This is the time when all the stupid things we've been doing like buying things on credit we can't afford, refusing to save any money, inflating programs and government local and fed to a comical height with no way to pay the cost should all be corrected. The lenders who let any crackhead have a mortgage should be closing up shop, government who declared any person earning less than 40K eligible for food stamps and medicare should be shutting down the bankrupt programs, artificially inflated house prices should be crumbling down and things should be reverting to a natural, honest state of real value.

But noooooooo

The artificially inflated prices and stupid lenders who gave dishwashers and drop-outs mortgages are being kept afloat by an ever-growing government that strives to spend more and more even though it can't afford to be maintained in its current state and all the ignorant feel-good retards in charge want to promise free crap and benefit and welfare to even more people who don't honestly need it (if they just stopped buying spinning rims and video games they'd notice how much they really have).

The longer the powers that be keep printing money and extending welfare and supporting failing companies the longer and harder this correction of the stupidity of man is going to be.

It should simply be allowed to crumble and everyone should learn a valuable lesson. But they won't. They didn't learn when the New Deal extended the Great Depression, they didn't learn when the banks forced a depression to create the fed, they just don't learn. They do the same stupid things over and over for the same stupid reasons and I assume they expect the outcome do be different but who knows.

Let the artificial die so we can all get back to living.

Originally posted by infinite
reply to post by musselwhite

 

And, a warning to all, I've been reading on many conspiracy sites (including ATS) about "stocking up" on food and removing money from bank accounts. Paranoid actions like this are not wise. You'll end up creating a massive economic problem by your own actions.

I love guys like you infinate with all do respect by the way people who say we are not in a recession and not in a depression and in fact our government wont even admit it either but yet the policies, power consolidations, bailouts, and stimulous bills that are being passed would suggest otherwise...if things werent so bad why is our government in panic mode passing bills that havent gone to this extent since 1929?

The thing about the depression is that big cats were the first to get their money out so they werent affected like everyone else. I think it is good people look out for themselves if they feel a trainwreck is coming stocking up on food and pulling money out of investments because frankly its your money or theirs and Id rather have my money.

What has staved us off for so long from this recession and forthcoming deppression is the hard work of American people. We work 40 to 60 hours a week to keep up lifestyles but pay has not gone anywhere and everything else has got much more expensive. This was supposed to happen in early 2000 but was bailed out by the housing boom. Well now the boom is bust and normal people have no where to get money.

Im in gold even though ive been getting hammered and will stay there. I have been stocking up on food and yes this spring will plant gardens. Even if the worst doesnt come its better to be safe than sorry especially when you have 3 kids and a wife to feed.

Are you serious? You are warning me not to mislead. Who do you work for the government? I said we were headed for a recission in 2007 which you ignore. So tell me what is your take on China refusing to buy into our unstable currency in march 2007.

Thank you for posting and giving me your warning. You rely heavily on what the ptb tell you. Are you a sheepal?

Due to the rapid growth of globalisation, there is nothing we can do about inflation. We've got to get use to it I'm afraid.

But something, which is not discussed in America, should be worrying for Americans. FOXNews said all the industralised countries in the world are facing economic problems like America? Well, apart from the finanical sector, other aparts of the UK economy are doing fine. Same with Germany and France is going steady too.

UK is currently discussing reform and adding diversity to the economy, strengthening other sectors.

reply to post by mybigunit


In fact, I made the link between this and 1929 in another thread. And, I even recall saying if the problem was not tackled it could end up like 1929 or worse. But in fairness, I said that before you joined so I'll won't accuse you of not researching



The reason the Fed keeps cutting and not increasing to tackle inflation is because they did that in 1929 and caused a depression

Yes it is terribly bad here in America. I am so depressed, I think I may jump in my SUV and head over to Starbucks for a $4.00 cup of Espresso to mull over my unfortunate circumstances during this depression.

I may have to cut my weekend getaway to the casino from three days to two to offset the $3.30 gas. I may just have to spend that day on the beach since that is still a free endeavor.

I also may need to sell back one for my 4 weeks of annual vacation to help my weekly trips to Outback Steakhouse. Or I could skip that and cut back on the Zocor which would help reduce my medical insurance (well maybe not).

I could also switch my car insurance to Geico to save a ton of $$$.

/end sarcasm

[edit on 1-4-2008 by Xeven]

reply to post by TheRedneck
I've noticed the same things myself in the last 6 months. If we're not in a recession, I'd hate to see the real thing!

As it is, we've had to increase our grocery budget by 30% just to keep up with grocery prices. We're not eating any better, just eating the same. Add in fuel increases ($3.20/gal in my area as well), and it really starts cutting down on the amount of disposable cash you have.

That means fewer new clothes for the kids, fewer family outings, and less money to contribute to charitable organizations. If prices continue to rise, it'll mean cutting other things which do not necessarily fall under the category of luxury items. I can only foresee things getting worse in the coming months however..

I'm sure everyone is feeling the drain though, some of us moreso than others as evidenced by xeven's post. I sure hope he doesn't have to cut down on his Starbuck's coffee and chocolate moche lattes..



[edit on 4/1/08 by LLoyd45]

reply to post by musselwhite


oh dear

Why are you trying so hard to get my attention?

I'm not a "sheepal" because I don't believe every single conspiracy on the internet. Secondly, I forget that on ATS you get called a government agent for not believing everything a new member posts *yawns*

I do my own research and make up my own mind, without being influenced by the paranoid either. Thank you.

They are countless threads on ATS, going back years, on what I think about China and the dollar. Withouting repeating myself, China is just waiting to sell off and cripple the US.

reply to post by TheRedneck


Your not reading "Inflation" like you think you are.. in fact, your reading something called "Core inflation" which essentially is everything except anything involving oil or petrol .. I do believe food is not included either.. its basically hard products that are manufactured.

Actual inflation is much higher then Core inflation.. I would guess somewhere around 10% or so. People complain about gas being expensive, but don't understand why.. then get mad when Exxon gets record profits.. when in fact, they are not getting record profits.. well, at least in relation to what the dollar was once worth. Don't get me wrong, they make a massive profit. I reality is gas is rocketing because the dollar is falling.. and so it takes more dollars to get what you once could, thus Exxon makes more dollars in relation to inflation.

However..

Unlike some people who believe their narrow train of thought is the only right answer.. we are NOT in a depression. Not even a recession.

We are in what many economics cannot explain and simply call it "Chaos" .. because it has no name. This situation has never been seen before.. but all admit the Fed is going crazy trying to prevent a REAL depression.

We are not loosing to many jobs. Yet. Mostly financial sector jobs have been lost.. if you go on Monster.com or your local news paper.. there are plenty of jobs. To say "there is no job for the little guy" is extreme and borderline ignorant.

Most also agree we have not seen the end. The fed has not yet found a magic fix to the problem and that the situation could get much worse. The Fed believes the 1929 problem is much like our own.. and we are on a tight rope over a depression .. a REAL one no seen since 1929.. however.. they believe it was caused because of a restriction of credit.. a sort of forced pay back on debts.. margins where called by banks (the money you bet on stocks that is not your own) and eventually banks began collapsing..

The Fed NOW is saying lets do the opposite.. make credit MORE available.. so American taxes are spent bailing out huge corporations... which in the long term may save thousands upon thousands of jobs.. but its an expirement.. nothing more.. if it works.. great, if not the Fed knows we will be in 1929 all over again. The problem now being seen though is while keeping credit open - lowering rates and the likes.. lowers the dollar.. so trading one evil for another evil..

But as the dollar falls Americans have less money.. less money to buy, less money to pay for debts.. a brutal cycle..

But.. still not in a recession. By definition .. economic hard times may be that, hard times for some, but that does not make it a depression.

reply to post by Rockpuck
Call it chaos, call it whatever you like, it's still boils down to prices steadily increasing while your wages remain the same.

Yes, there's plenty of jobs paying minimum wage out there, but who can live on it? Many of the people that do, live in their vehicles, campgrounds or cardboard boxes. They have no healthcare, poor diets, and have to use public restrooms to clean up so they can go to their less than subsistence level job.

It may not be your problem right now, but give it time and you'll be out pecking sh-t with the chickens as well. That's the problem with America today, we think only of ourselves and to heck with our neighbors. It's that "Better you than me" attitude at work.

Use whatever new Chic economic term you like, but we're ankle deep in the sh-t, and the cesspool is continuing to rise..



[edit on 4/1/08 by LLoyd45]

This is TERRIBLE!

I am here at work - trying to do my job, and threads like this compel me to respond. I'll have you all know, when I'm on the unemployment line - I'll be think of you all!

1) The conceptual application of the words "Depression" and "Recession" are actually (if you consider the practical impact) seeming to me like arguing about whether you going to bleed to death internally or externally. Evidently, whatever the economists get together and decide are the criteria to 'qualify' as one or the other or both are not going to put bread in my pantry. Don't get me wrong, I respect that the economically science-oriented need to concur on this to better debate possible solutions, but to me it's just doesn't matter who's definition fits (unless they're willing to feed the hungry with it.)

2) I propose that the reason we are not seeing what would logically seem to be the most appropriate level of public discussion is because those who need to posture themselves to remain prosperous and otherwise unaffected by the economic upheaval have not yet finalized their preparations. Once the very institutions that are most directly responsible for this crisis are sufficiently confident of not only escaping the impact, but are also in position to profit from the 'recovery' THEN we will see the monkey show - talking heads, marketeers, etc. telling us that we have been saved by [fill in the appropriate fantasy herein]

In the world we, the people, thought we designed (not what the system has become) such a debate should have been ongoing all along - fueled by the 5th estate carrying out its mandate to serve the people (who have granted the press constitutional protection to that end).

The fact that this reality will be diluted with endless intellectual tugs-of-war of definitions, inconsequential political posturing, and otherwise meaningless revisionist histories is clear proof that there is a 'waiting game' going on somewhere. Logic suggests that all parties should be desperately pursuing a solution - even a the expense of campaigning, marketing, and other transient business activities. I am failing to see this. SO, in true conspiratorial form, I suspect malfeasance.

reply to post by LLoyd45
you are soooooooooo right. i used to dive into a bucket of s_ _ t and come out smelling like a rose.................not so today.

Originally posted by LLoyd45
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

It may not be your problem right now, but give it time and you'll be out pecking sh-t with the chickens as well. That's the problem with America today, we think only of ourselves and to heck with our neighbors. It's that "Better you than me" attitude at work.

Use whatever new Chic economic term you like, but we're ankle deep in the sh-t, and the cesspool is continuing to rise..

[edit on 4/1/08 by LLoyd45]

Well said that sums up a lot. Im not doing to bad but I see my neighbors who all were considered middle class struggling hardcore. One neighbor who was making $22 and hour and she was told 2 months ago that she could either take a paycut to $7.50 and hour or get fired....her husband works at a fedex and he gets paid per drop and he says that things are really slow and he is only making half of what he was making 3 years ago.

Another neighbor owns a pool company who was doing real great and now is putting his own money in his biz just to keep it afloat.

Me who owns a decorative plumbing company have been hit huge my sales down 38% year over year. Luckily Ive been shorting the market so Im not in to terrible of shape.

Its the ability to see how my neighbors are doing to understand that things are not well and business as usual. Hell I can even drive down the local mall and strip malls and see that businesses are going under left and right.

Modern society does have that its better you than me mentality and its sad but soon we will all be in the same boat just rich and poor with 98% of the population being on the poor side. Like Warren Buffet says there is class warefare and my class is winning.

Originally posted by musselwhite
reply to post by infinite

 

excuse the typo...i meant charts. i did say we were headed into a recession back in april 2007. polls, charts, whatever, will never take the place of what is actually going on.

Mussel, what is your scope of "whats going on"?

Is it your neighborhood? Your County? Your State? what?

The reason I ask/question it is because, while things around you MAY seem bad, overall, the financial sector jobs notwithstanding, aren't much changed with perhaps some inflation.

I too, believe we are ENTERING a recession, however, by definition we aren't even CLOSE to a depression, and, a recession while imminent, isn't quite here.

Just because maybe ALL of your neighbors may be out of work, clearly can't be justification for a nationwide "recession" indicator, not that we don't feel your pain, but sincerely it's not the end of the world.

Perhaps what the country needs, to bring clarity and specificity to nationwide financial health would be regional or quadrant based financial sectors. To view these quadrants as independent entities, and have the FED adjust quadrant based differences (the difference between market value and prime lending rate) and create quadrant based inflation instead of nationwide inflation. Just a thought, perhaps the inflationary status of one quadrant could offset that of another, much like a traffic cop. Thus ensuring someone, like yourself could WELL proclaim, "hey my quadrant is CERTAINLY in a recession/depression" without sparking panic in quadrants not affected AND not causing global panic.
I think human nature is such that ANYTHING nationwide causes panic, where regional distress causes one to lose little sleep.

Right now the WORST thing anyone at all could do is panic OR stop spending; that happens, and we become the harbingers of our self-fulfilling prophecy which ensures our economy collapses.

I think if the FED REALLY wanted to boost the economy in its totality, what it SHOULD have done, is, instead of approving 160 Billion for $600 rebate checks to the population, it, instead, provide each household with 30 times that amount, and tell them to go wild. Buy new cars, buy jewelry, buy TV's, buy anything at all you never needed and always wanted...who gives a crap, let Bear Sterns fall, they dont need BSC in an economy that has no reservations about spending needlessly!


AB1

reply to post by Rockpuck

From a technical point of view, I can find nothing in error in your post. The problem lies not in the name one chooses to call the price index, or the situation. You are correct in the definitions of recession and depression, and I think I began my post with that acceptance.

Technicalities only serve those who make their living by them. To an economist, there would be a huge difference between depression, recession, chaos, a downturn, etc. To the average American, the difference is in their spending power and confidence, two things that are much harder to quantify than the former examples.

The true problems are not what word we choose to define the conditions we find ourselves in, but what will be the result of these conditions? Should half the population be living in abject poverty, it will do them no good for someone on TV to declare a name for their condition.

As to what the Feds are doing, you are very correct. There is a major panic happening right now at the highest positions in our economy. The apparent idea is that money is produced by bank loans more so than by the mints, and we need that money in order to continue our economic growth. My concern is that this growth is also dependent on the average people buying things, manufacturers making those things, and retailers selling those things. Should the people lose faith in the economy, they will stop buying and begin trying to save. Should the manufacturers cease to produce in the US, there will be less people who have money, and therefore faith in the economy. Of course, we now actually produce very little here, so our economy now is dependent on countries like China. I'm so glad we are such good friends with China... wait, that's not right, we are having trouble with China.

I'm growing a garden and getting some chickens. Need I say more?

TheRedneck