The World will Never run out of OIL!!!!

Run out of oil? No. Breathable air and constancy of our natural resouces? Yes.

Did you see the chinese woman on drudge today wearing a cotton mask to breathe?

Originally posted by verbal kint
Call me crazy but per my calculations, if current rates of consumption hold we should use up all current known reserves in about 50 years.
Believe what you will.

It used to 'officially' be around 44 years in 2007 but it's growing at about a year or two per year currently. What isn't often stated is that back in the 70's admitted 'reserves' were but 25 years and anything more than 40-50 is probably just very bad for business so don't expect big oil and national governments to admit to too much more soon.

Stellar

reply to post by StellarX


You're probably right about what they're willing to admit. On the flip side of all this, you can't really blame 'em. As far as I can tell, with battery technology advancing, electricity is looking like it will out perform it's final competitor (gasoline engine) in the retail market in just a short while. Combine that with magnet driven generators being just around the corner, you gotta think, "What would I do?" Go for a final cash grab before your industry is rendered obsolete. With the resulting funds, you can then refocus you company's energy into a more relevant and current product and market. Just like Dubai, gearing up to be a tourist destination. But it takes a lot of dough to completely overhaul a multinational corporation, so...
cheers
-v

The problem I think ,lies lies and more lies.

America can not afford to abandon oil ,It's dollar would be worthless inside of 24 hours if it did abandon oil.

Not only that it has to import oil to keep the charade going .

that is why the US dollar has lost 40% of its value the last 6 years and is heading for a free fall. should Iran be allowed to start selling Oil in Euros as it has already started to do.
most Americans do not know the dangers they face they think it's all going good.
you will soon learn why those that prepared will survive the ones that did not will die trying to survive.
there is a lot of oil in America but they would have to give up their standard of living to use it.

Hi, new to the forums here please be gentle.

First a little background about me:

I hold a Masters Degree in Geology and a bachelors in Petroleum Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines. I have worked for both major oil company's and wildcat operation for over 15 years. I am now in a "consultant" role for a major independent out of Denver Colorado. I have drilled for oil in 23 countries both onshore and off. If this doesn't make me an expert on this subject i don't know what would.

Besides the mild flaming this is an interesting thread. Both sides are partially right. Oil is running out. We will never tap it all because its just not economically feasible to get at allot of the oil that is left. Even in fields that are considered good production fields recovery is still only 50% at best. We have come a long way in the past 20 years with drilling and well stimulation technology. Advances in directional drilling have allowed us to recover oil and gas in previously un-recoverable fields. Advances in stimulation technology(I.E fracturing, CO2 and water injection,Etc.) have allowed us to pull more oil from both new and existing fields. Computers have aided greatly in the mapping of fields and making it easier to find oil. There have been great strides in seismic mapping technology which helps me find where oil and gas reserves are located. Making it much cheaper than drilling ump-teen exploratory wells to find the pays. All of these things combined are what is responsible for our reserves steadily increasing when logic would say they should be declining. Another factor in this equation is the price of oil. In the 80's the drilling and exploration industry went through a massive slump. This was because oil was so cheap it just wasn't worth it to drill new wells. Now that oil is $100+ a barrel its worth it to drill again. More exploration means increases in reserves. About half of or "new" reserves come from being able to wrest more of it from the rock. 1/4 comes from being able to recover oil from plays that were previously inaccessible either because of not being able to drill deep enough, or the "pay zones" being so thin it wasn't worth it to drill for it. We can now drill horizontally right through these thin layers and recover way more than we ever could with conventional drilling technology. The last 1/4 comes from truly "new" fields. So technically, if we didn't have all this New Tech, we would actually be depleting our reserves not expanding them.

So to answer the OP. Yes, we will never completely run out of oil. new oil is constantly being produced.( it takes aprox. 20 million years for organic material to be converted to oil and about 30 for it to crack into natural gas. All thou, there are some new studies that show in some cases oil can form in as little as 10-15 million years and under much less pressure and heat than was previously thought. ) We will however run out of oil that is monetarily worth drilling and completing wells for. This will not happen in our lifetimes, or our children's grand children's time for that matter. With current and expected consumption rates i would estimate that will happen in 3-500 years. Personally i think it is absurd to think that we will still be consuming oil at anywhere near our current pace in 300 years. So i believe it is a moot point. If anyone has any questions i have not answered feel free to ask.

If i may be allowed to go off topic for a moment i would like to address all the people that say oil company's make way to much in profits and are "gouging" us at the pumps. Oil company profits are in line with other industries profit vs expenditure. They have to spend a lot of money to find, drill, and produce wells. The average well costs 2.5 million to drill and complete. 9 out of every 10 wells that are drilled are what is called a "dry hole". So thats 22.5 million just find the one well that will produce. Running out of space but i will post more on this topic.

I don't know for sure, but what if there isn't a limit on oil at all? What if quantum mysticism is right? What if there isn't a limit on gold or silver or platinum either? I mean humans have made jewelry since at least the time of the Celts but probably back to the Egyptians, but we're sill using and having gold! And it's still plentiful enough to be sold in stores and jewelry shops! Same with silver. What if there's no such thing as a nonrenewable resource?

The problem isn't running out of oil, it's oil production not meeting demand, and then oil production dropping.

One should also not argue that it's good for demand to drop, as it has to keep rising as part of economic growth.

Originally posted by Lokey13
reply to post by BRITWARRIOR

 

I don't think I have to comment on you gramatical errors you should be able to see them, you made enough. But if you realistically think a different energy source is going to be readily available in the next 20 years your crazy.

I think you mean "you're" as in YOU ARE....Not your Mr. Grammatical...Not to mention two M's in grammatical.....But you should be able to see them!