Wallstreet Sky Rockets! 3/11/08

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


The cat is out of the bag then eh? This is a royal mess indeed. Too bad the guys on Wall Street make their money from sales and not on performance.
Next week could be a blood bath, if so I would look for a huge spike in the Pitchfork and Torch market.

It's a shame my IRA has tanked with everyone elses! Otherwise I could find more humor in this situation. Oh well..

It's scary that we finished approximately flat after the 200 billion dolllar Inflata-Fusion. Hopefully we find support through next week. 11,500 Is the next "thresh hold" then I think we will lose support until 10,000. If that happens it's over for a long time. The fact the DOW finished up only 63 points for the week after the FEDs actions is discouraging at the least IMHO.

That's the funny thing about the Stock Market though. It makes fools out of the smartest and geniuses out of the dumbest. Or vice-versa. Or not


And to add. I do not want the Markets to fail or the economy to crash. It's just incredible to be living in historic times like these. The US is in a position it has not been in since 1929!! It's kind of neat to be able to see it first hand.

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

Absolutely, I don't want a crash or a depression either. I'm perfectly happy with my life as it is. But living in Denial of obvious historical and economic fact does not suit me either.

I see those on this board who have done due diligence and understand the 'possible' threat as the real optimists. We are saying, 'Whatever happens let's be prepared to live on!' Because if the worst does not come to pass, then we will continue on happy as ever. But if per chance the worse does come to pass then the unprepared will be the ones with no options.

So I see alot of projection onto the Prepared here by the Unprepared of 'Doom and Gloom'. Stating that we are the ones who are saying 'give up and kill yourself',blah,blah,blah..... When in fact, that will be THEIR mantra if things do get as bad as many in the economic community are saying. Since we are in the net Positive position of having more options in said scenario we have every reason to be the more calm and collected regardless of the economic reality!

We come hear to share news related to unfolding economic threats and 'discuss' them. How that is viewed as scaremongering is beyond me. As a 'Conspiracy' 'Discussion' Forum, it is intrinsically normal to discuss conspiracy. I understand that some are frightened by change of any kind. Maybe they should steer clear of Truth as much as possible. Sometimes it's scary.

I have to laugh at how easily so many are being lured into the doom and gloom conspiracy. All of a sudden the media tells us day in and day out how horrible everything is, how we should run for the hills. And so many of the people parrot it like they are told to. For a conspiracy forum, people are really falling straight for the conspiracy. Its a perfect reverse psychology move by the mass media - tell them everything sucks and they will buy it easily, and get them to create a doom and gloom economy by causing emotional sell offs.

Its a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is good for oracles to be right, as it makes them feel better about themselves and established credibility with others. But this is the equivalent to predicting that there will be a fire in the forest and then lighting a match and throwing it in the underbrush. Your quite correct, but you didn't really predict it. There will never be enough emotionally driven amateur investors to cause a depression like so many want, but there are quite enough (mostly retirement accounts) to drive a recession, if you get them all worked up. And everything is going perfectly according to plan.

Maybe the doom and gloom oracles should steer clear of truth as much as possible. It might hurt their accuracy. Good news is indeed scary for those who only want bad news

The reality is most of the doom and gloom oracles do not have significant enough assets to have to prepare for anything. Those that have real assets take a distinct opportunity cost and a net loss for buying into doom and gloom scenarios that never happen. There is a huge loss in opportunity cost and in fees to get out of investments in order to avoid doom and gloom scenarios, even though all the experts agree the likelihood of such scenarios is low. This is much like preparing for a nuclear missile from Ethiopia. Could it happen? Sure, all things are possible. Is it probably the best move to set up a missile shield that could only stop a Ethiopian nuke flying at the United States? No. You'd be prepared for a extraordinary unlikely scenario at a large cost to you. Meanwhile, everyone else is putting up a missile shield to protect themselves from actual threats - like a country that actually has armed nukes pointed at you.

You go with the "remote possibility but not likely" doom and gloom scenario, I'll go with the "very likely" recession scenario - we'll see who comes out on top in a few years

[edit on 15-3-2008 by pacificwind]

reply to post by pacificwind


The majority of Economists I have read have been talking about recession for the last 3 years. Policy has been so screwed up and the Financials institutions have been doing such rediculous crap that the Doom and Gloomers have been going on for nearly 4 years. The housing problem did not happen in 10 weeks, the credit problems did not happen in 10 weeks, and the currency issues did not happen in 10 weeks. Mainstream media is only reporting on this because it cannot be denied any longer and still be taken seriously. In fact a lot of people in the industry feel that this "artifical" exuberance we have now is due to the fact that the Mainstream Media is still underplaying the circumstances we are in. Ron Paul saw the problem as soon as Greenspan cut rates after 9/11 and so did many others!!

I mean really, do you understand what it means that Bear has essentially been destroyed? Thats a pretty big deal man. Do you understand how ruined housing and all the other industries that go with it are? How completely wrecked the Credit Markets are?
Or the DOLLAR. This mess with the dollar can impact every single market on the planet. The Japs are already freaking out and the Middle Eastern countries are already gettign off the boat. The Fed will keep pulling tricks to avoid a panic but all you have to do is look at the charts for '08 to see where we are heading.
DOW since Dec 13th 2008 (sorry, I am not seeing the future!!!)
All those spikes correspond directly with news on banks supporting each other or with Fed intervention measures. Tie this in with all the news from all the Financial Sectors and all you get is the image of a small bedroom fan sitting behind the worlds largest dump truck full of dung and some drunkard playing with the controls. Will the switch get flipped? Who knows?
The idea that the doom and gloomers are just parroting MSM and their recently sullen view just shows that you have not been paying attention except to MSM. A lot of us saw this storm coming from a long way off. It's like starting to get hit by the feeder bands from a hurricane. All we can do is hope it finally misses us.

"When the press start talking about the possibility of recession, the recession is already here. When the Press declares we are IN a recession, well that's when you start to really worry."

I wish I could tell you who said that but I have no idea. So thanks to
whoever for the qoute.

Go Short when you can, buy low when you can, hope for the best and plan long term. There are already a lot of folks I know who though this was not as big as it is who have ALREADY lost their arses by not plannign for the recession. Or maybe even the "Greater Depression". We'll see!

You are right though, once the panic starts it become perpetual. The panic may have been set off with that $200 billion Inflata-Fusion. That action really opened some eyes. Apparently not all of them.

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

reply to post by Tinhatman


First, let me say I find the doom and gloom post gang to be amusing. You notice how they only star the posts of the people they agree with? Talk about only wanting to confirm your own narrow worldview. I'm not talking about you tinhatman, just the person who is on a mission in this thread to ensure every response disagreeing with me is starred.

Recession /= doom and gloom. There may indeed be a recession, but I don't call that a doom and gloom scenario. I call it a required part of the business cycle. By doom and gloom I mean - depression, running out of food, and all the other "run for the hills/were all going to die" scenarios.

I read peer reviewed journals often since I am thinking about going back to graduate school again in economics or public policy, and I have yet to see a majority of economists predict a doom and gloom scenario. A vast majority predict nothing at all, or a recession.

Meanwhile, the main stream media preaches doom and gloom to the masses and so many eat it up. Again, for a conspiracy forum where the media is always wrong and has an agenda, how is it so many people are buying it completely? Because they are not interested in the truth, just interested in confirming their worldview.

Its the nature of conspiracy theory on the economy to predict doom and gloom constantly. There has never not been a time in the history of conspiracy theory when someone was not predicting doom and gloom, because its anti-institution to think its all going to collapse. Just because some have always predicted doom and gloom and we could be entering a recession does not indicate any sort of accuracy.

Its the same as religious wackos who proclaim every year that the end of the world is at hand. When it finally does happen - and it must, eventually - will they have been correct and predicting it correctly for "years" ahead of time?

reply to post by pacificwind


I have not seen (or often anyways) people here talking about running to the hills or stocking up on food. The biggest voices on economics on ATS are simply saying that we ARE in a recession, its going to get worse, and the underlying problems need to be fixed before anything else....

reply to post by pacificwind


Recession is part of a normal managed business cycle. A free market would control it's own growth so that recession and artificial exuberance would not happen in the manner we have grown use to here. Naturally occuring balance. We do not have free markets though so this is what we get instead.

You are right, CTers always call for doom and gloom and depression and TEOTWAWKI.

This time they might really be on to something. We have no historical precedent for what is happening now.

The great Depression was caused by manipulation of the Stock market.
What we have now is the Manipulation of EVERYTHING to the point of complete and utter FUBIJALS.
Credit, Stocks, Bonds, Mortgages, etc etc. Hell, even currency has been turned into a commodity and that market has been manipulated and ruined.

The thing is, you can prepare different ways.

I prepare my financials in a way that I anticipate recession, maybe makes some Short sells and some money in the process, but overall expect the loss and look long term and plan on buying big in the dunk.

BUT, I also invest in usable items. Canned food, water purifiers, trade items (honey, booze, salt, sugar) ammunition etc. and that is what many others are saying on this site as well.

To imply that most of the folks here are just parroting the MSM is where I think your wrong. The signs of big time economic upheaval have been apparent for years and it is th eMSM that i scoming late to the party.

Respectfully,
The Tinhatman

reply to post by Tinhatman


I agree with your post mate but uh..

What the hell is a TEOTWAWKI

And what the hell is a FUBIJALS

Lol, thanks for the clarification ..

reply to post by Rockpuck


TEOTWAWKI= The End Of The World As We Know It

FUBIJALS= Fudged Up But I'm Just A Lightbulb Salesman



Also look for

FUBIWATH= Fudged Up But I'm Wearing a Tinfoil Hat

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

reply to post by Tinhatman


I don't know about you, but I've seen the MSM declare doom and gloom forever. That is their job in order to ensure ratings. Good news does not give the MSM ratings. While there are no doubt a few bulls on the news, I'd say a vast majority of the news - on everything - is negative because its news. Positive things simply don't make the news. So, in 2000 - the end was near/its over/we're all going to die. In 2008 - same thing. I remain highly skeptical about TEOTWAWKI, but do see evidence that a recession may be coming.

I agree that in a perfect world in a free market, this a recession wouldn't happen because the government would stay out. However, the government probably isn't going to stop messing with things it shouldn't anytime soon. So for the US, recessions are a normal business cycle because the government always has and always will interfere. Even laissez faire economics had undue interference.

When I talk about preparing for a recession, I am talking about what you said about your finances. However, I think it is possible to profit off a recession because of the mass hysteria recessions cause thanks - in my opinion - due to the MSM and other self-appointed doomsday oracles. For example, buying gold commodities is a good move right now not because the end is nigh, but because the MSM and doomsdayers are decrying everyone has to sell everything and run to precious metals. This will cause a gold stampede, and just like in the 1980s the price will sky rocket as the hysterics ensues. Sell at the top of the hysteria or as people realize what a mistake they just made, and you win.

I also would not consider the things your buying to be doom and gloom indicators, depending on how you currently use those things. If you already live in something like a hurricane area, canned food is a good choice. If you already eat sugar, salt, honey, etc. And if you like to hunt, extra ammo would be fine.

What I am talking about are people who are literally fleeing to the hills, making "hidden gardens" because they think worldwide starvation is coming, or building bunkers/protective shelters based on the economy. And yes, I have see several threads about this. Yes, I think it is representative of the hysterics I am not going to go along with.

Oh, and LOL! At the TEOTWAWKI - I love it I'm going to borrow that, as I already have

reply to post by pacificwind

posted by pacificwinds
The reality is most of the doom and gloom oracles do not have significant enough assets to have to prepare for anything. Those that have real assets take a distinct opportunity cost and a net loss for buying into doom and gloom scenarios that never happen.

That's a very arrogant statement. I personally have made a very nice return on my investments that I 'course corrected' months ago when I saw this coming. If and when the time comes I will course correct again. Like I said, I think we're all doing well under the circumstances and will continue to do well regardless of the economic situation because we have 'Hedged' our bets. You simply refuse to acknowledge that all things are possible and prepare for severe downside risk. But you shouldn't call people names just because they do.

Hopefully you will find useful sentence structure in my post to rewrite and fill in some blanks in a schoolyardesque game of repeating what I say. Seriously though, put your thoughts in your own words please.

reply to post by pacificwind


I actually sold off half my gold I bought in 2002 last week. A little too soon but oh well. I made %400 and I still have some of that and some of my 1999 buy so I am ok I think.

Commodities are awful high right now IMHO. We may be at the top of spike for those now too, or very near anyway. I see commodities now like housing in '06 or tech stocks in '93 was it? Very near the peak and some of those getting in now will be left holding the bag. Smart money has been buying gold, silver, oil, whatever, etc for the last year or so expecting this stock downturn, now all the Joe Six Pack players are jumping from stocks to commodities and will cause a huge spike in prices which in turn will cause the industries that actually purchase for the creation of final goods to just stop buying because the goods will be too expensive to use in a manner to make a profit on the market with their final product. Still time to make money though IMHO.

Hard commodities may be ok but others!?!? Stuff like corn may not be such a good idea because the Ethanol industry will be breaking down completely by 09, wheat was good until very recently, now everyone is buying. And blah blah blah. Any "rush" ends up the same. If you don't pay attention you end up being the last girl left at the frat party, we all know what happens then.

Anyway

what do I know?

HAHAHA Brainfart!!! The media is singing doom and gloom to GET the consumer investors to go into to gold now because that's where smart money has been going for 2+ years!!!! Like in Early 07 when every MSM outlet was singing the praises of Home ownership and low intrest rate loans for all people to go buy houses NOW!!! We must remeber that MSM are all subsidiaries of larger financial corporations1! They are tryign to screw J6P again liek they did before!!!!!!!!! Don't buy gold! That's the conspiracy! They want you buying now because they know that the gold crash is coming and they need to get there money out!!! If anyone tells you that gold never goes down don't listen! He's the same arsehole who said that real estate only goes up. Look how that truned out eh?

Oh and I am glad we all are playing. Most Economic boards do not allow the tin foil hat conspiracy talk at all! Thank goodness for ATS!

[edit on 15-3-2008 by Tinhatman]

Before I begin, HimWhoHathAnEar: as usual, your arrogance and insulting precede you. I wasn't talking about your networth. Maybe one day you'll learn one day to not foam at the mouth every time someone disagrees with you AND assume everything I say is somehow targeted at you. There are lots of people in this thread, including tinhatman and rockpuck, that are capable of conversing with someone they disagree while not insulting them - why can't you?

I want you to look at the demographics of doomsday oracles and conspiracy theorists, and tell me what percent have a substantial amount of assets. I'll give you a hint: according to the research in psychology and sociology, the majority of hard-core conspiracy theorists (which is not all CTers) are young and in the lower class. Now, go to the census and find out what demographic groups are most likely to have the lowest amount of total assets.

reply to post by Tinhatman


I agree that there is still time to make money off the hysteria that ensues from the MSM preachers of doom. Generally, I've been pretty good at predicting when the hysteria will switch tides and start declaring that its all over and time to buy something else. Contrarian economic theory works pretty well - sell once everyone else starts buying. We will get to that place soon with gold and oil.

I think most of it comes down to ratings. Hysteria makes the ratings, good news doesn't. The good news is that we can profit from the mass hysteria!


[edit on 15-3-2008 by pacificwind]

www.msnbc.msn.com...

another article about the Bush administration and how they're going to take further action to try to better the market. Enjoy.

Yeah, I really enjoyed his pearls of wisdom on friday. Don't over correct, or, or, ya end up in the ditch!

Train wreck already happened, the cars are just starting to pile up. There was an Economics professor in Europe who said this weekend that this is Socialism for the rich. Dead on IMO. We'll see if they can keep a handle on Hundreds of Trillions as they unwind. That amount of money doesn't exist unless they try printing it. Which will open a pandora's box of hyperinflation.

It's all been done before. Nothin' new under the Sun. Gotta love Fiat currency.

inflation vs. deflation seems to be an academic argument

when banks can't lend and consumer can't borrow the game is up.

the dollar is not going to hyperinflate because it is the world reserve currency, and other central banks are not about to abandon the dollar, they will lose too much.

the amount of credit that was created was so high that trying to stop this unwind thru printing will be impossible unless new denominations are created such as 1,000 5,000 10,000, 50,000 and again this does not seem to be doable.

ben bernanke says he will not willingly allow deflation to occur, he admitted that is all he can do, and by distorting this into confidence, getting the market to believe this and in the power of the fed, was beneficial to pupetuate this myth that deflation can not happen.

a deflation benefits the project for a new american century because in a deflation, T-bills are king/ Fr notes and the shadow banking system (electronic notes fall) despite ben bernanke's "promise".

the fed will find a way to attempt to bailout it's investment banks that crap te bed, but that is all they can do w the help of the gov't. The gov't will back up "nationalize" the banks that are too big to fail, but we could very well still have deflationary forces over -whelm none the less. Each crisis appears to be growning bigger now, and the electronic notes which are the source of an expanding M3 get destoryed in huge numbers each time a crisis hits, while FR notes are actually deflating in supply now

seems to me a deflation would leave us all (those who have debt) as debt slaves. seems to me story's planted about the dollar being destroyed as a prerequisite to introduce the amero could be irresistable disinfo bait. yes a NAU is planned, and no a new currency would not have to be formed to represent this union, but even if it was the other currency's would not have to go into the crapper first anyway.

[edit on 16-3-2008 by cpdaman]

And here goes commodities. Everything is down this week; GOLD, OIL, SILVER, ETC.

This is like reading from a playbook.

Umm guess what guys the Dow finished positive again today; a show of good faith or a snake in the grass? I'm betting that most people will agree with option number two but I'll stick with my guns and say yet again that we are going to keep getting better.

reply to post by Lokey13


My question to you is, 'What has changed?' The fundamentals that brought about the collapse of Bear Stearns are still wreaking havoc on Derivatives and therefore everyone. So what is the Good News? That BS is selling for $11 instead of $2? That's Good? Tell that to the people who are losing everything in that deal. That's the kind of Ignorance that I'm here to Deny.

Wall Street is bleeding tens of thousands of jobs, Bank of America losing Billions announced today, deflation of Home Values, American consumer still buried in Debt, foreigners refusing to buy our debt, and on, and on......

Enjoy the Pipe Dream while they're selling it. The next round will be worse.

reply to post by Lokey13


Ill-advised exuberance. DOW is up because a lot of folks are selling short and others, as they sell commodities and run into the safety of treasuries, split up some flow back into the markets to get some kind of return. Now that the FED is holding the floor the support from the short sellers will disappear. No money to be made going short if stocks go up.

I'm telling you, it's like reading from a play book. Credit/SIVs/Crap-->stocks-->bonds--->commodities-->treasuries+stocks-->huge market spike--->crash.

This crap with Bear is ridiculous, JP says it's worth $10 to boost the value of the garbage they just agreed to buy, after that announcement Bear became the most heavily traded US stock in Europe!!

Imagine this, a guy is forced to buy swamp land for $2/acre. Well he says (after he is commited) "oh it's worth $10/ acre!! I am pretty sure there is gold underneath that swamp!!" Well speculators than say "crap!! we better get in on that golden swamp land!!" first guy then saves his ass from the devestating loss of buying worthless swamp and the speculators absorb his misfortune.

housing sales are up? Always up after January. Always.

Consumer confidence down 64.5 from 76.4 in march

Home prices down %10+ down 13 months straight now.

It's all getting better now

[edit on 25-3-2008 by Tinhatman]