Flexibility vs. Contingency?

Hi all.

I'll kick off by saying that for me, Flexibility has always taken priority over planning specific ways to deal with a problem - i've seen in movies and read in books where the people involved all stand around in shock when they hear of some major catastrophe that WILL effect them, and they lose valuable minutes they could spend prepping up to panic and sudden bouts of depression.

In my mind, the best way to deal with any situation is to move with it - to keep up with events as they unfold and push emotional worries aside in order to make sure my mind is free to deal with (and perhaps predict, to a point) the way the situation evolves.

This probably came from realising that in certain catastrophic scenarios, things are far too random to prepare for beforehand - you might have packed everything you need in order to camp out in the woods for a while, but circumstances are such that there is an invading army using those woods as a base camp.

All of a sudden your cooking stove and knowledge of forestry are as useful as trying to light a fire in the middle of the ocean.

Contingencies and strategies are only as good insofar as the events around you are stable, is what i'm trying to say.

With all that out of the way, what sort of SitX scenarios do you think would result in a truly chaotic environment with which to deal with?


p.s; i am aware that some contingencies can be worked out at an instinctual level - which is called 'Dodging', but i'm talking about actual pre-meditated contingencies here.

Oh, and feel free to debate the finer points of my argument with me.


[edit on 15-2-2008 by Throbber]

Remember that all battle plans are mute after the first shot is fired. Those that study preparedness should know this. All you can do is have the skills and supplies hat you might need. Even then you can bet that something will be left out. All good plans must be flexible and be able to be changed on the spot. So many variables can come into play. Your plan is as good as any if you have the skills and the supplies to do what is necessary. There are some situations where a plan is needed though. [i.e. fire escape, flash flood, etc.]Then there are others where you must just play it by ear.[i.e. martial law, evacuation.] There just isn't any particular plan that will fit everyone for every situation. So yes with a certain amount of preparedness flexibility is a must.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

reply to post by reluctantpawn


Thank you for your confirmation of my personal perception on the matter.

Now i know i was right to pack light.

That doesn't mean that you should not be prepared. It is always a good idea to have at least a years worth of food and water put back as well as possible alternative power sources. You must cover as many bases as possible. And that means stocking up and putting back. Knowledge is still the key to survival in any situation.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

With all the preparations I've made and the countless dollars I've spent, I know my ultimate survivability will simply be a matter of luck.

Even with the best training and the best gear, the best laid plans of mice and men still often go awry. All it takes is one lucky shot from some low-life to end it all. If you've ever read Lucifer's Hammer, you'll know what I mean. It's not always the strongest, smartest or best equipped that survive.

Hey Lloyd that is a good book. I'll have to reread it. It has been a long long time since i picked it up.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

I too have spent count less dollars on gear and supplies, and spent countless houres thinking of all possible sit x situations, Then I realized, when it happens, more than likely I wont be at home in my prime state, I could be at work, or out of town, I may not even be able to get to my gear, When a sit x happens, you will be delt a hand of cards, you have to play those cards as good as you can.