Kosovo's independence 'in days'

Kosovo's independence 'in days'

news.bbc.co.uk

Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci has said a declaration of independence is "an issue of days".
"There are some procedures we need to respect and some consultations," he told reporters after meeting EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Brussels.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Serbia is in a slight political turmoil before its upcoming presidential elections. If Kosovo unilaterally declares independency, what will they do? Russian Navy is sailing the hight seas and it's elements are moving to Balkans for "exercises". Russia is hardly going to help Iran militarily, but Serbia is another thing. Serbs are brothers to Russians and failing to help them may hurt Putin more in the eyes of the common russians than the west knows...

Will Serbia react with economic and political sanctions? Will they intervene militarily? Could the ultranationalists in Serbian Military stage a coup using governments inability to protect Serbias sovregnity as an exuse?

news.bbc.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)

EU Expansion Commisar Olli Rehn said that majority of EU countries and USA will recocnize Kosovos independence at the moment it's declared...

Last I heard Russian delegates are recommending Serbian authorities to continue to strongly oppose Kosovo's independence despite pressure from elsewhere in Europe. If there is a larger deal between Serbia and Russia at hand, no one knows about it yet. It is interesting that Russia continues to hold such a strong and determined line in the arguement, especially after what happened in 1999. But I doubt there will be any kind of real intervention from Russia. Serbia is largely unable to undertake any military action, especially with UN in the area.

I think the only option left for Kosovo Serbs, is to start their own guerilla warfare against the new Albanian authorities, and fight for separation of Serbian-majority portions of Kosovo. It is only fair, considering that Kosovo Albanians got their independence by the same means, and were the ones who started this idependence idiocy. Of course the Serbs there will get support from Serbia and many other sympathetic slav countries (Russia, possibly Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Montenegro). At this point that is just fantasizing of course, but given that anger and emotions still run high - I doubt Kosovo's independence will go over smoothly.



I suspect Russia is in this debate for more selfish reasons. In particular - Transdniester, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia - all of which are pro-Russian de-facto sovereignties seeking independence (from Moldova and Georgia), and all of which are considered frozen conflict zones. The separatists there will use Kosovo (and why shouldn't they) as an excuse to renew their struggle, and Russia will have a justification to back them. Of course right now Russia wants to keep those conflicts frozen, which is why I think it is against Kosovo's independence.

Last thing Russia wants is a war in Abkhazia/South Ossetia, because Georgia has a good chance of winning against the separatists, but if Russia gets involved it will get tons of media and diplomatical flak from the West. Russia needs those zones to remain de-facto because that gives it an edge in dealing with the Georgian government. Same goes for Transdniester.

I hope that Kosovo independence never happens, and the gangster extraordinaire, Mr.Taci, will stand trial for his crimes.

Originally posted by northwolf
Will Serbia react with economic and political sanctions?

I doubt that will have any impact on Kosovo. Serbia is not what it used to be, economy-wise and politics-wise.

Originally posted by northwolf
Will they intervene militarily??

With what army? Much of the equipment was destroyed, or dispersed around Bosnia and Kosovo and left there. Plus Un has a pretty tight hold on the region, as far as preventing Serbs from doing anything at least.

Guerilla warefare/insurgency in Kosovo with support from Serbia is more realistic and has more potential.

Originally posted by northwolf
Could the ultranationalists in Serbian Military stage a coup using governments inability to protect Serbias sovregnity as an exuse?

Well they do have the support of a large portion of the Serbian population, but I doubt UN will stand by if a real coup happens. The radicals are better off doing what they do now - exert as much pressure as possible on Kostunica and Tadic short of threatening a coup or public demonstrations. But they likely won't stand by and watch Kosovo become a new country with full backing of Albania and Turkey.

Either way Serbia is in a no-win situation. They lose their province one way or another, and if they stick with their pride and determination they will again fall on EU's and NATO's naughty list.

So to all degenerate separists, sovereign-wanna-be's, and Che-Guevara wanna-be's of the World - rejoice. You too can get independence if you blindly follow the degenerate demagogy of thugs, rebels, and warlords proclaiming to be freedom fighters. Think about it - the world could technically be separated into 50,000 nations if we focus on what it is that makes up a provincial majority. If people think there are many conflicts now, wait untill we give everyone independence and then watch what happens.

Originally posted by buddhasystem
I hope that Kosovo independence never happens, and the gangster extraordinaire, Mr.Taci, will stand trial for his crimes.

On the bright side Kosovo independence will inspire thousands more Mr. Tacis, Arafats, Basayevs, Ayatollahs, Bin Ladens, Zarqawis, and Pol Pots around the world. But that shouldn't be of concern to Europe and U.S. Especially where short-term goals get all the priority.

I am mainly off from site, because various things but this kind of threads is my specialty.

Originally posted by northwolf
Serbia is in a slight political turmoil before its upcoming presidential elections. If Kosovo unilaterally declares independency, what will they do? Russian Navy is sailing the hight seas and it's elements are moving to Balkans for "exercises". Russia is hardly going to help Iran militarily, but Serbia is another thing. Serbs are brothers to Russians and failing to help them may hurt Putin more in the eyes of the common russians than the west knows...

Will Serbia react with economic and political sanctions? Will they intervene militarily? Could the ultranationalists in Serbian Military stage a coup using governments inability to protect Serbias sovregnity as an exuse?

news.bbc.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)

It’s not so easy. I think Boris Tadic will win in presidental elections. Albanians could UDI, but I think they won’t.
I always wrote here that Russia doesn’t care for Iran, and that is again confirmed that Russia will vote for new anti-Iranian resolution in SC UN. But Kosovo...

Originally posted by maloy
Last I heard Russian delegates are recommending Serbian authorities to continue to strongly oppose Kosovo's independence despite pressure from elsewhere in Europe.

Not even every EU country is for independence of Kosovo.

Originally posted by maloy
If there is a larger deal between Serbia and Russia at hand, no one knows about it yet.

I’ll be back on this.

Originally posted by maloy
It is interesting that Russia continues to hold such a strong and determined line in the arguement, especially after what happened in 1999.

The role of Russia is to blockade any possible retaliation against Serbia in [not possible] action of NATO. Because of resurrected Russia, nobody would do such an adventure any more.

Originally posted by maloy
But I doubt there will be any kind of real intervention from Russia. Serbia is largely unable to undertake any military action, especially with UN in the area.

I like common fallacy that Serbia can’t do anything by military. You ever heard for disinfo spread to fool enemy?

Originally posted by maloy
I think the only option left for Kosovo Serbs, is to start their own guerilla warfare against the new Albanian authorities, and fight for separation of Serbian-majority portions of Kosovo.

Actually, scenario is probably the next:
1. Albanians UDI and West recognize it.
2. Serbs in Northern Kosovo declare independence from Kosovo.
3. Radical Albanians start to attack Serbs [first in Mitrovica, pushed by USA which doesn't care for Albanians any more].
4. KFOR is completely impotent to protect Serbs [and that is fact].
5. Serbia will announce that another ethnic cleansing of Serbs and non-Albanians can’t be tolerated like was 17th of March 2004 and will send army.
6. KFOR will just watch how Serbian army entering and will do anything because of total impotence.
7. West ‘protests’ and Russia agree by legitime intervention.
End of story.
Albanians are going into trap like Saddam with Kuwait. And don't forget taht USA dropped over 10 t of depleted uranium in Kosovo in area with 100% of Albanians. It is forbidden to Kosovo Albanian politicians to talk about it. Life down there is completely destroyed by Americans.

Originally posted by maloy
With what army? Much of the equipment was destroyed, or dispersed around Bosnia and Kosovo and left there.

Do you know that Serbia actually export weaponry?

Originally posted by maloy
Plus Un has a pretty tight hold on the region, as far as preventing Serbs from doing anything at least.

KFOR is bunch of incompetent and impotent losers.

Originally posted by maloy
Well they do have the support of a large portion of the Serbian population, but I doubt UN will stand by if a real coup happens. The radicals are better off doing what they do now - exert as much pressure as possible on Kostunica and Tadic short of threatening a coup or public demonstrations. But they likely won't stand by and watch Kosovo become a new country with full backing of Albania and Turkey.

West wants Nikolic’s victory so they can easily take Kosovo. I hope he won’t win.

Ha ha ha. Russia is back in Southern-Eastern Europe. I will open probably thread about it.

I won't write about agreement between Russia and Greece last month, but let see what happened last 8 days.

Russia trumps EU with new oil deal

# Russia agrees deal with Bulgaria to build gas pipeline through ex-Soviet state
# The deal undercuts a rival project backed by the U.S. and European Union
# Agreement will strengthen the Kremlin's dominance over EU energy supplies
# Pipeline will cross from Russia under Black Sea to Bulgaria then into Europe

End of article:

Also signed was an agreement for a joint company, also including Greece, to build the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline, which will channel Russian oil from the Black Sea to the Aegean, bypassing Turkey's busy Bosporus.

As part of its energy blitz, Russia has promised to extend South Stream into Serbia and build a huge gas storage facility there -- moves that would turn the Balkan nation into a major hub for Russian energy supplies to Europe.

Miller said Gazprom and Serbian officials were close to a final agreement on a deal that would envisage a South Stream branch reaching Serbia, and would also foresee Gazprom taking a controlling stake Serbia's state oil company NIS.

January 18, 2008

And week later:
Russia seals $2.2B Serbia gas deal

# Serbia signs $2.2B deal to make it a key hub for Russian energy supplies
# Agreement includes building part of a prospective major gas pipeline in Serbia
# Russia's state gas monopoly will buy controlling stake in Serbia's state oil firm
# The deal follows Russia's gas pipeline agreement with Bulgaria last week

Minister of economy Dinkic was against it and he almost managed to blow away whole deal [he was probably bribed by Austrians and OMV ], but from what I found FSB... Now he shut up.

"The agreements signed would make Serbia a key hub in the prospective network of Russian energy supplies to southern Europe," Russian President Vladimir Putin said after Friday's signing.

And than people ask themselves why under secretary Nicholas Burns retired.

On January 18, 2008, Burns announced his retirement from the Foreign Service effective March 2008.

How many NATO troops are in Kosovo? I don't see NATO walking away just because hostilities start.

There are some 16 000 troops in KFOR. Up to 3/4 are from NATO countries. Most of the soldiers are from countries neutral or friendly towards Serbia.

I know for sure that most NATO forces won't allow the srebrenicha to happen again, but are they capable of interviening if Serbs use heavy armor... I know for sure that for example Finnish force has 112mm APILAS recoilleses as their sole AT firepower, but if ordered to fight, they will... and to the bitter end. But i can't say that all forces will, swedes have been in trouble using force to break down riots, can they handle real battle? I hope we don't need to see, as i have friends in the region

[edit on 26-1-2008 by northwolf]

Declaring Kosovo as independent would be a big mistake. It will cause problems not only on the Balkans. I hope that those who support Kosovo's independence doesn't do so just because the Russians are against it.

A tangential fear of mine is that Albanians will take it upon themselves to rid Kosovo of Serbian claims by destroying as much Serb heritage there as possible. They did it before in the late 1990s - and several medieval treasures of monastic architecrue was razed - and will do it again. This stuff is some of the finest works of medieval Europe, and the importance of it goes way beyond ethnic wranglings in the province.

Places like Decani, Peja/Pec and Gracanica belong to the world.

I hope I and many generations to come will get to see them.

That said, I do view this in the correct perspective against the terrible human losses of recent decades.

Aside from that, more politically, I fear that the declaration of Kosovan independence is likely to stimluate the seperatist feelings of majority Albanian areas of southern Montenegro, and in Macedonia where they form around 25% of the country's population. Albanian seperatism in Macedonia has been simmering for a few decades and has burst into violence and continues to do so - it just doesn't seem to be as newsworthy as Kosovo for some reason. Seperatist claims in Macedonia are likely to involve Bulgarian and Greek interests. Feels a bit like 1913 again....

reply to post by northwolf



Yes, "in days"... but it's been coming ever since Saturday, March 27, 1999.
(I know very well what I am talking about.)

And I welcome it - of course.
All nations that wish to be their own caretakers have the right to be just that.
It's not possible to be a "democrat" - a humanist, even - without acknowledging that simple fact.

As I said in another thread, the only reason the US and EU are supporting Kosovo independence is to tweak the Russians.

There is a movement afoot to reignite the Cold War by any means necessary - I suspect it was good for a lot of influential people's bank accounts.

All nations that wish to be their own caretakers have the right to be just that.

So if Texas or California were to secede and ally itself with Mexico, you believe the US would be OK with that?

[edit on 1/26/08 by xmotex]

reply to post by xmotex


USA should not have a problem, as they endorse that kind of activity all over the world... but of course we know how hypocrite americans (the leadership and to some extent the people) can be...

Goverment of Serbia has action plan for Kosovo UDI. And nobody knows what's written in secret part.
Serb army ready to protect Kosovo Serbs - President Tadic

Another thing concerning Russia - Russian ambassador Alexeiev in Belgrade said last month that if Serbia would seek military help from Russia they will help. And I am pretty sure that one Russian general confirmed it.

Originally posted by northwolf
I know for sure that most NATO forces won't allow the srebrenicha to happen again, but are they capable of interviening if Serbs use heavy armor... I know for sure that for example Finnish force has 112mm APILAS recoilleses as their sole AT firepower, but if ordered to fight, they will... and to the bitter end. But i can't say that all forces will, swedes have been in trouble using force to break down riots, can they handle real battle? I hope we don't need to see, as i have friends in the region

Do you really think that some 400 Finnish soldiers would fight?

Well I know the U.S. government wont get any backing from the American people if they wanted to back the terrorist in Kosovo with our military. Turkey will try to help them I believe and that will lead to Russia and Greece fighting Turkey.

Originally posted by Vojvoda
Not even every EU country is for independence of Kosovo.

I don't even see why EU cares about the issue so much. It is not like anyone expect independent Kosovo to suddenly bring peace to the region. And do South-European countries like Greece, Italy and Austria really want another "Albania" near them? Albania is the armpit of Europe as it is, and Kosovo stands to become another failed sovereignty.

Originally posted by Vojvoda
The role of Russia is to blockade any possible retaliation against Serbia in [not possible] action of NATO. Because of resurrected Russia, nobody would do such an adventure any more.

Well Russia still can't behave too recklessly. It has major energy deals going in with NATO members, and it does not want to jeopardize its main income stream. But I do want to see Russia get involved. At the very least NATO will back-off the region, and think twice before minding the business of sovereign nations again. NATO's intervention was illegal in the first place, and all Russia had to do in 1999 was come in with a couple thousand troops and spread them accross strategic Serbian bases to prevent any NATO attack.

Originally posted by Vojvoda
I like common fallacy that Serbia can’t do anything by military.

You ever heard for disinfo spread to fool enemy?

Oh I know it can. It held its own in Bosnia and the Kosovo in addition to a few smaller strifes. But if NATO decides to intervene full force again, then Serbia stands little chance by itself. I'd like to see Serbia get some of the new toys from Russia, like the S-400 and other associated airdefence hardware, as unrealistic as that is.

Originally posted by Vojvoda
Albanians are going into trap like Saddam with Kuwait. And don't forget taht USA dropped over 10 t of depleted uranium in Kosovo in area with 100% of Albanians. It is forbidden to Kosovo Albanian politicians to talk about it. Life down there is completely destroyed by Americans.

What is funny is that everyone holds the notion that the U.S. was there to help poor Albanians and prevent them from being ethnically cleansed. In reality U.S. couldn't give two ****s about who is getting cleansed where and who innitiated the conflict. U.S. interevened to weaken the Serbs, that is all. That is why I believe that Albanians cannot rely on the U.S. to help them again, because U.S. was never really helping them in the first place.

Originally posted by Vojvoda

Do you know that Serbia actually export weaponry?

But what about the Serbian airforce. What is left of that?

Originally posted by Vojvoda
KFOR is bunch of incompetent and impotent losers.

Well KFOR is just as big of a joke as the Hague tribunals. What is more appaling than its incompetence is its huge budget (just like the Hague). Money in a wastebasket....

Originally posted by Vojvoda
West wants Nikolic’s victory so they can easily take Kosovo. I hope he won’t win.

Why should he? I don't know much about Serbian politics, but aren't the radicals fairly popular?