Can anyone calculate this for me?

Hey all,

I've been having a discussion with a number of people about the statistical probability of one single vote making a difference in the up-coming presidential election. My argument is that one single vote, isolated, has an extremely small chance of deciding the election. Many people like to have the optimistic viewpoint that their one vote has a chance in Hell to sway the election one way or another, and they do not react kindly to my viewpoint.

Now, my point is not to start a discussion about this. What it comes down to is simple numeric logic. Roughly 122,000,000 people voted in 2004. Is there a way to calculate the statistical possibility of the election coming down to one vote? You couldn't just do 1 in 122 million, because that assumes that somebody is getting "picked," like the lottery. It would have to be a way of calculating the probability that everyone else is going to vote in a pattern that causes the election to come down to a single vote. What are the chances that it's going to be exactly 50.0%/50.0%? If necessary, we can do individual states too. This could be fun.

As a disclaimer - Yes, I'm going to vote in this election. Also, so as not to sway anyone else not to vote, I strongly encourage every single person that reads this thread to still vote.

Well, being as how presidents are selected by an electoral college and not actually by votes.

en.wikipedia.org...

Individual votes mean very little. Collectively, I don't think they mean much either.

Still, I vote!! If you don't vote, you can't bitch!!

Originally posted by whaaa
Well, being as how presidents are selected by an electoral college and not actually by votes.

en.wikipedia.org...

Individual votes mean very little. Collectively, I don't think they mean much either.

Still, I vote!! If you don't vote, you can't bitch!!

Well, then we can calculate the numbers by individual states if it would be more feasible.

Is this person voting in isolation?

I guess by your question they must be - frankly calculating one persons effect on a larger (family/friends?) group would be totally imposable.

The easy way is (providing ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED is 100% correct) would be:

(Your voter / Total number of voters) * 100 = your voters % of the entire vote.

To do it with your figures...

(1 / 122,000,000) * 100 = 8.1967213114754098360655737704918e-7
or...
8.1967213114754098360655737704918e-9 * 100 = 8.1967213114754098360655737704918e-7

Lets round it!!
-7 means decimal goes left 7 places.

0.000000819672% (rounded to 12dp)

p.s If a million voted:.... one in a million would be 0.0001% of the total vote



[edit on 21/1/2008 by Now_Then]

Originally posted by Now_Then
Is this person voting in isolation?

I guess by your question they must be - frankly calculating one persons effect on a larger (family/friends?) group would be totally imposable.

The easy way is (providing ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED is 100% correct) would be:

(Your voter / Total number of voters) * 100 = your voters % of the entire vote.

To do it with your figures...

(1 / 122,000,000) * 100 = 8.1967213114754098360655737704918e-7
or...
8.1967213114754098360655737704918e-9 * 100 = 8.1967213114754098360655737704918e-7

Lets round it!!
-7 means decimal goes left 7 places.

0.000000819672% (rounded to 12dp)

p.s If a million voted:.... one in a million would be 0.0001% of the total vote



[edit on 21/1/2008 by Now_Then]

Thanks! But don't we then have to calculate the probability that the vote is going to come down to exactly 50/50 and factor that in?

reply to post by Herman


I don't understand.

That is the percentage of the entire vote that one person has control over (with the numbers provided, they would only be available after the vote was counted)

I suppose if you wanted to know the power one vote would have - look above the numbers, and look at the actions of that one voter... did they simply vote as they always do? did they go out and shout from the roof tops? did they boost numbers of voters (regardless of which way that voter would vote).