Recession Fears Blanket Wall Street; Dow Plunges 300 Points

reply to post by mybigunit


Well you keep saying I have said were not in/headed to a recession. I - and everyone else - have predicted one for years. Its a cycle, and were in it.

The government cannot "fix" the economy, it can only screw it up. I don't want them trying to "fix" anything. An economy cannot be fixed, it goes in cycles. The most the federal government can do is tinker with it through interest rates, it can't fix it. And it shouldn't try to. There is nothing to be fixed. Recessions will come and go.

reply to post by LightinDarkness


you and bigunit need to open up your very own thread so you can continue your back and forth debate instead of hijacking yet another thread.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


Oh please. Me talking about a recession hijacks A THREAD THAT TALKS ABOUT A RECESSION? Nice try. Move along.

The dow closed today Jan 18 at 12,099 down another 59.91 points.

I've cashed out most of my money. I'm not likely to buy back in till the economy looks like it's turning around. I'm sure that I'll miss the bottom that way but at least I'll have most of my money.

I'm curious where the stock market will go this year.

reply to post by Wildbob77


Interesting how it keeps deteriorating even with the so call stimulus package.

Next week the feds will step in to lower more the interest to try and give another boost to the markets.

Sad, truly sad.

reply to post by marg6043


Nothing can stop the sell-off, no signs of a bottom.

The Fed cannot give a .75 or even 1.00 cut because of inflation. Sub-prime is still haunting us, we still don't know the final bill. Median markets are in bear mode, worse to come is the Chinese stock bubble which will burst soon...do I need to remind what happened last February when the Chinese stock market dropped 9%?

Chinese market is expecting it's own 1929 crash, which will have a huge effect around the globe. Our markets are starting to build ties with China, London stock exchange has opened up a Beijing office today (Prime Minister Brown opened it for them). Many companies from China are listed on our markets.

This is the next major problem for world markets, it will end up crashing Western markets too.

Europe is facing a huge growing problem, and that is the Pound Sterling. It's lost 9% against the Euro within 8 months, today it lost 1% against the Dollar. If the UK suffers currency problems, our economy and the Eurozone is going to be hit. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are refusing to discuss the problem.

correction:

The Pound has lost 8% against the Dollar in two months.

[edit on 18-1-2008 by infinite]

Originally posted by Wildbob77
The dow closed today Jan 18 at 12,099 down another 59.91 points.

I've cashed out most of my money. I'm not likely to buy back in till the economy looks like it's turning around....

I'm curious where the stock market will go this year.

An aquaintance made a call to his [conservative] broker today to discuss his muni-bonds. Broker said the market is down for the next 18 months.

Powerful moves in these inverse indices recently...especially the chip-makers. Click on the individual links for charts/price/volume. Jus saying

Inverse ETF's.

reply to post by LightinDarkness


Now I can take posts like these that aren't calling people insulting terms.

I can understand your angle on the situation believe me but my concern is for all of the people affected by what happens in the market, who actually aren't participants in the market.

I have tried all day to come up with a comparison and the only thing I can say is the market is a gamble, people invest hoping to gain but as you said there are soooooo many ways to approach making money on wall street that it helps to be an expert.

My comparison is to legalized gambling in Vegas, AC, etc. Same type of gambling, many ways to try and gain a profit, some are learned enough that they can make a living their and you still have those who aren't so learned who lose their hind end

The problem is.. in Vegas the losers are those who participate in the assorted gaming.

In Wall Street the losers include those who aren't even gambling.

I don't care if people want to gamble, I do care if when they lose.. I lose.

It may be too simple of analogy, but I wanted you to know that I respect everyone's opinion on this situation agree or disagree, I just take it a little hard when some of us not invested in the market show concern with the current situation and get insulted.

Its a buyers market . Im picking up some stocks as we speak. 5-10 years there gonna be worth a TON .


Gotta find the silver lining .

the opening post is concerned witrh 'recession fears'... well between the federal reserve and the gov't---- it is a fact that 'recession' is upon us
which is not- a fear of an approaching recession-
that is why the govt economists (Paulson, et al) are spearheading this
attempt to inject capital and trust back into the (imho~ broken!) system thru their proposed (and bi-lateral) stimulus package.

just yesterday i sent an e-mail to my Senator in SC and suggested that Any 'stimulus package' should focus on 'rebates' to all the millions of
Veterans........and they, whether retired, on pension, disabled or just
recently seperated, are worthy targets for any "rebate checks" deemed necessary to revive the credit driven economy.

but from what the MSM economy channels are reporting is that the prevailing mindset is to award $800+ checks to poor taxpayers....
because they are historically prone(as per year Y2K era rebates)
to spend the money...as opposed to using the money wisely!!!!


what folly....................again !!!!!!!!!!!!

Bear Market Looms As Major Indexes Keep Falling

Major U.S. indexes have broken key technical support levels, leaving the stock market vulnerable to further declines and the turbulence could get worse, according to chart watchers.

With the Dow now holding precariously above 12,000, a drop below this psychological level could help confirm the worst fears of investors -- the onset of a bear market, stock technicians said. A bear market is defined as a downturn of 20 percent or more below a record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite index has already fallen 17 percent from its 52-week closing high set in October.

bear market coming?

Now, I am extremely surprised by the NASDAQ being only 3% away from a bear market.

I can see the DOW dropping below 12,000 next week.

Market Oracle are discussing the dangers of "Dome tops", this is where the market has a rally, decline, rally, decline, rally and then a plunge.

It's an interesting read

City: It's the bull market rally over?

David Schwartz - the celebrated stock market historian - reminds us that history warns the bull market of 2003-7 is over and UK shares are due for a solid thumping. Here is some important perspective:

The FTSE-Small Cap index has already entered bear market territory. It now sits 23 per cent below its mid-2007 high.
The FTSE-250 is not far behind. Cumulative losses penetrated the 20 per cent level for a short time last Friday morning before recovering a bit. This index of medium-sized companies has now officially entered bear market territory (on an intra-day basis). For those who choose to keep score on an end-of-day basis, the index closed last Friday night 19.6 per cent below its bull market peak.Now for the main index - the FTSE-100.

This end bit is the most worrying...

There were eight occasions since the Great Depression when a bull market boosted shares up at least 100 per cent in a bull market. The stock market fell more than 25 per cent in each bear market that followed.
Recall that shares rose by 105 per cent in 2003 to mid-June 2007 which makes the current downturn number nine in this worrying series.

This is a Skynews commentator saying this, mainstream media,....that's why I've posted the article

reply to post by JacKatMtn



i say a more correct analogy would be that the 'Market Players'
are like handicappers...whether professional or adjunct
daily racehorse/greyhound bettors....who always think thay have the system or algorithim, so as to live comfortably on their betting winnings.....so the same with the stock market 'Traders' !!!!!!!

"Vegas-"-except for Black-Jack is a statistical 'feed the bank/casino' play.

reply to post by JacKatMtn


I would disagree. While having a intricate knowledge of the stock market certainly makes you more money, it is quite possible to make 10-11% (over 40 years - a normal retirement time frame) with almost no knowledge of the market. All people have to do is take their retirement money and put it in a *no load, not actively managed* retirement target fund. Put it in, and leave it. Add to it monthly. When you retire, you'll have a lot more money than you put in.

The problem of course is that the average investor does not understand that when you have a long time frame, cyclical recessions (like this one) do not matter. But they don't understand that. They watch MSNBC, freak out as the media drives the "OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG" emotions, and they pull all their out at a loss. Then when things go back up, they put it back in and pay more. They try to time the market without any knowledge of the market, and they lose.

There is nothing to be concerned about because this happens every time a recession happens. People love bad news. They love the thought that the economy would go into a recession - or - even more fun - a depression. It won't, of course, but people just love to get emotional. The economy will go down, IT MUST every so often. It CANNOT be avoided, and NO ONE can stop it.

No one can be blamed for it, because its part of the cycle. The only thing that can be done is the government can interfere and make it worse off by raising taxes, or ease things a bit by lowering taxes. But the governments actions cannot guide the market. It can only have a short term impact (like what happens when interest rates are raised/lowered, and the market responds accordingly).

Comparing investing to gambling is completely inaccurate - unless you have no idea what your doing. If you don't, then it is gambling. But if you know what your doing to some extent, its not. Its pretty simply actually: do the opposite of whatever the mass media instructs the sheeple to do. Mass media right now is freaking out trying to get the ratings up, so you buy.

[edit on 18-1-2008 by LightinDarkness]

reply to post by LightinDarkness


I did say my analogy might be too simple

I appreciate your input into this discussion, and I do understand the cyclical aspect, and as you have said the FED ans the govt can do nothing to prevent this, so I will ask you..

Is the govt/FED just trying to delay the inevitable? Many here have been concerned long ago about this current recession, will the reaction of the govt/fed the past year actually make this situation more severe or did they actually help to float this market down instead of crashing it?

I am learning so forgive me if my questions are simple, I would just like to hear your viewpoint on the matter.

[edit on 1/18/2008 by JacKatMtn]

Originally posted by infinite
Europe is facing a huge growing problem, and that is the Pound Sterling. It's lost 9% against the Euro within 8 months, today it lost 1% against the Dollar. If the UK suffers currency problems, our economy and the Eurozone is going to be hit. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are refusing to discuss the problem.

Yes but the pound only gave back the gains today that it made yesterday, so that 1% isn't a big deal.

As for the 8% loss against the dollar - this time last year the pound at 1.95 was a vague dream for the gbpusd bulls (I was one of them).

Yes, the pound has lost a lot of ground against the euro, but then so has just about every major currency. It seems the euro is the new 'non-dollar' and possibly the new 'flight to quality' in times of trouble - although gold indeed seems to have regained that honor fully recently.

I wonder if the pound is getting trashed so that the UK will enter the Euro sooner rather than later - a bit like some suggest the usd is getting burnt to hasten the intro of the Amero??

A one world govt needs a one world currency

double post - slow connection!

[edit on 18-1-2008 by RogerT]

reply to post by JacKatMtn


Well, in my personal opinion the government is trying to delay the inevitable. Political scientists know that voters tend to vote on what going on right now - voters rarely actually take in anything more than the very recent past when deciding on what party to vote on. Voters are also generally unintelligent when it comes to national politics and the economy. Most voters incorrectly believe that there is a link between the party in power and the economy. They do not realize this is wrong, and they will never realize this. As such, most voters will examine what the media tells them about the economy and then blame the party in the executive branch for it. They will then vote for the opposite party, or if it is their party in power they won't vote at all.

The DNC (Democratic National Committee) and RNC (Republican National Committee) know this. They hire legions of political scientists and graduate students to analyze voter trends. The current administration, who are republicans, will be blamed for the recession by the majority of voters even though the government has very little direct control over the economy. In response, the administration is going to do everything it can to delay the inevitable until election season passes.

The DNC and RNC also have staff economists. Both parties knew the next cyclical recession was coming up in 2007-2008, as far as back as 2004. The problem is that while economists are pretty good and forecasting when something is coming, trying to narrow down the time frame is problematic. So the DNC sits around prepared with political ammo to blast Bush whenever it does happen, all the time praying it happens soon. The RNC sits around ignoring it, hoping it won't happen until a Democrat is in power. They don't make any preemptive moves because it would signal to the other party what is about to go on.

In the end, there is little that can be done. The current "package" proposed would simply buy the RNC some political capital. Any real plan to try to soften the blow of recessions is long term and would not be seen before the elections. In an election year, nothing gets done by the government unless it gains the party in power some political capital.

reply to post by JacKatMtn

I totally appreciate your sentiment JKM. I'm sure you realize that few truly successful traders would be inclined to come on a site like ATS, or anywhere else, and engage in boastful, self-demeaning behavior. Why would they?

Most traders track momentum & trends. At their heart, stock momentum & trends are based on economic fundamentals...traders don't establish the fundamentals...they simply ride the Bulls & Bears in hopes of turning a profit in either direction.

Today's events didn't materialize in a vacuum. In terms of accountability, I believe we need to look at corporate governance, monetary policy, and political policies for clues to our current condition....policies spanning five decades.

Peace

reply to post by OBE1


As usual you bring the issue that no even our government wants to touch, the reason we are in the mess we are right now.

Because it all starts from the top and their greedy, corrupted and personal agendas.

Shame, shame and more shame, because nobody is gong to jail for all this.