Asteroid may hit Mars next month!

IF this asteroid hits Mars...

I wonder if the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) will be in a position to photograph the impact site sometime soon after the (potential) impact occurs. It would be interesting to see if any signs of sub-surface water can be detected it the newly-formed crater.

Ok, I don't understand... A 1 in 75 chance of hitting it, but if it does hit it will be this certain area. How do they know where it will hit, if they are not even sure it will hit???? Isn't there computer models that calculate these things by the known laws and geometries of gravity and orbits etc... I guess there must be more to it, cause to me, if one body is moving at one velocity, and another body is moving at another velocity, and their paths intersect.... speed, distance, time. I guess I just don't get how they would not know for sure whether there will impact or not.

It would seem to me that if they are that precise in figuring where it "might" hit, they should be more attuned to "IF" it will hit than 1/75.

Just my opinion though.

go here----ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...


and see that it does actually hit mars on jan 30 --type in 2007wd5 and see the simulation...

Originally posted by anhinga
reply to post by Donoso

 

...I wonder what the science involved was to determine that the rovers were safe from this potential impact -- I mean, is there really a way to test that?

I doubt the rover is "safe" from such a powerful impact, that close to where it's situated.

Yeah, I need to echo this sentiment. I mean, read this paragraph again:

If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it will probably hit near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 8 miles a second, a collision would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.

The size of the Arizona crater?! And the rover is not in danger?!

Excuse me, but isn't it postulated that an asteroid hitting our planet and gouging a hole the size of the one in Arizona -- didn't that one kill the dinos? And a robot is not in danger?!

reply to post by behindthescenes


No, that one did not kill out the dinosaurs. In fact, it didn't do much in the scheme of things:

The crater was created about 50,000 years ago during the Pleistocene epoch when the local climate on the Colorado Plateau was much cooler and damper. At the time, the area was an open grassland dotted with woodlands inhabited by woolly mammoths, giant ground sloths, and camels. It was uninhabited by humans, the first of whom are thought to have reached North America only around 13,000 years ago.

Meteor Crater

The impact produced a massive explosion equivalent to at least 2.5 megatons of TNT – equivalent to a large thermonuclear explosion and about 150 times the yield of the atomic bombs used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The explosion dug out 175 million tons of rock. The shock of impact propagated as a hemispherical shock wave that blasted the rock down and outward from the point of impact, forming the crater. Much more impact energy, equivalent to an estimated 6.5 megatons, was released into the atmosphere and generated a devastating above-ground shockwave.

Folks, the Russians tested a 100 megaton nuclear device back in 1961. In comparison to that, these asteroids are extremely tiny. It's like you think that an asteroid impact is an automatic "end of the world" scenario!

The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs was 100 teratons (1 teraton = 1,000,000 megatons).

Now, back to the topic:

www.livescience.com...

NASA is preparing!

[edit on 21-12-2007 by Donoso]

[edit on 21-12-2007 by Jbird]

reply to post by behindthescenes


The Arizona Crater impact did not kill the dinos. Meteor Crater in Arizona was formed about 50,000 years ago, millions of years after the dinosaurs were gone (in fact, there may have been humans who witnessed the Arizona event). The alledged dino-killer occured 65 Million years ago and was much, much larger. The dino-killer was possibly 5 to 15 kilometers wide. The Arizona meteor was maybe 50-100 meters wide, and this Mars one is also about 100 meters wide.

The location of the alledged dinosaur killing meteor crater is in the Gulf of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula.


EDIT: I see Donoso already posted much of this same information. He must be quicker than I am...thanks for the info.

[edit on 12/21/2007 by Soylent Green Is People]

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People


Actually, the asteroid that would have wiped out the dinosaurs would have left a crater 180 kilometers (110mi) in diameter. You got the location right though.

Here's some more information on that:

en.wikipedia.org...

[edit on 21-12-2007 by Donoso]

reply to post by Donoso


Thanks

But I was talking about the diamaters of the actual asteroids/meteors, not the size of the craters they leave.

to clarify:

Dino-killer: Asteroid about 5-15 KILOMETERS wide
Arizona: Meteor (Asteroid??) about 50-100 METERS wide
Mars: Asteroid about 100 METERS wide

[edit on 12/21/2007 by Soylent Green Is People]

reply to post by turbokid


People have been saying this for years. It's been known for a while that an object could sneak up on us without being seen until it's too late. The fact that this is happening to Mars now, should be a wakeup call to us all that it could just as easily happen here. It's only been a few years since we saw Jupiter get hit too!

Much investment is needed in sky monitoring telescope networks to prevent such a possibility, but governments seem to be reluctant to fund such projects, even though the money needed is a tiny fraction of the defense budget for example.

The problem is, even if we did know one was going to hit, and had a few years warning, we still have no way of deflecting an object. This has been discussed at length here on ATS. Here's just one recent thread, I'm sure there are more: www.abovetopsecret.com...

It'll be interesting to observe this event if it actually happens. I'm sure we can learn allot from it that could be useful when planning for future impact threats. I wonder if the rovers will be able to photograph the impact from the ground, which would be a unique view.

[edit on 21-12-2007 by C.H.U.D.]

[edit on 21-12-2007 by C.H.U.D.]

Originally posted by turbokid
what i take away from that article is how relatively "out of the blue" this seems to come. i mean, they discovered it a few weeks ago and it could hit in a month. what if it was headed for earth? meh, i guess the "skywatchers" dont have as big of a handle on things coming into our neck of the woods as i thought.


aside from that, it will be awesome to see!!

If I remember correctly the "skywatchers" are just a handful of scientists working with minimal funding. I think this is just another example of how helpless we would be if a similar object had earth in its sights.

Originally posted by Donoso
www.livescience.com...

NASA is preparing!

From that link it states...

So…should be quite a dust-up on Mars if 2007 WD5 pings the red planet next month.

This is what I am saying will be a problem for the rovers. If they receive more dust from the impact, the solar panels will be producing even less power and that could be all she wrote. Strange that they don't mention that.

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People


My bad. You're absolutely right, thanks for clarifying. The asteroid would have been a beast, that's for sure. It would have happened so fast most dinosaurs in the region would have never even saw it coming, despite those artistic impressions. The thing had to have been traveling a good 24KM/S which would have impacted the ground before you could have even blinked a single time. Would have been hell on Earth. Ah well, if they'd not have gone instinct we'd never have had the chance to exist.

Edit: Typo

[edit on 21-12-2007 by Donoso]

Originally posted by Donoso

The thing had to have been traveling a good 24KM/H which would have impacted the ground before you could have even blinked a single time.

I think you must mean 24KM/S - 24KM/H is a little slow for an object entering our atmosphere

[edit on 21-12-2007 by C.H.U.D.]

[edit on 21-12-2007 by C.H.U.D.]

reply to post by C.H.U.D.


Yeah, that's just human nature. It's very rare when you finally get to type out (or say) anything per second.

About the solar panels: They're currently trying to soak in as much sun as possible (winter shutdown) without any movement. There's no doubt the rovers would die out after the event because of lack of energy but they'd still be able to produce some shots with the energy they gain from now until then... If it happens at all, that is.

nice post OP

I think it was mentioned by CHUD, but the most alarming thing is the time frame. If we noticed something heading towards us and only had a month or so, what would we do?

Its only now I type this I realise... they probably wouldnt tell us, seriously think about it.

On topic - I hope this does impact as it isn't too big and the data we could gather for our collective benefit would be.. 'out of this world' (pun intended )

Another thought, what does this mean for those that suggest it's already inhabited (i may be wrong but i thought someone suggested alot of our solar systems planets are, was mars one of those?). Might we see some sort of reaction/response or movement at least?

Well I'm eagerly waiting, thanks for the heads up OP, and others for their links.

[edit on 21/12/07 by Randomdam] typos

[edit on 21/12/07 by Randomdam]

reply to post by Randomdam


I think it's safe to assume that if there is an advanced civilization living on Mars now, that we would see them reacting to this threat, if it was imminent. That is, if they did not already have some sort of a shield in place (a likely possibility since the atmosphere is to thin to provide much defense against smaller meteoroids, or so we are led to believe) to protect inhabited zones from all but direct hits, which would probably require more direct action. Or they might already have started to nudge the object into a less dangerous orbit.

It's certainly worth watching to see if something unexpected happens, which might indicate intelligent life on Mars, but if there is only a negative result (apparent inaction) then I don't think we can totally rule out the possibility for the reasons given above.

If there is a remote possability that intelligent life does excist on mars maybe we should bombard mars with a heads up radio message? just in case they didnt see it yet?

last thing we need is inter solar refugees turning up asking for santuary, or if the rumours are true and we do have humans up there with bases then they need to get as much footage as poss to share with us.

Originally posted by Viszet Oki
Ok, I don't understand... A 1 in 75 chance of hitting it, but if it does hit it will be this certain area. How do they know where it will hit, if they are not even sure it will hit???? Isn't there computer models that calculate these things by the known laws and geometries of gravity and orbits etc... I guess there must be more to it, cause to me, if one body is moving at one velocity, and another body is moving at another velocity, and their paths intersect.... speed, distance, time. I guess I just don't get how they would not know for sure whether there will impact or not.

The trouble is we don't have enough observations of the asteroid itself yet to precisely determine its orbit. The asteroid is very small and appears as just a single point of light in all our telescopes. It's not too hard to determine how fast it appears to be moving across our field of vision, but it's much more difficult to determine its speed directly towards or away from us. Without enough observations there are going to be "error bars" of where it could go because of our calculated uncertainty. If the error bars overlap with the planet we know an impact might happen and we can figure the odds. Basically, we know how fast it's travelling "side-to-side" with respect to us, so we have a very good idea of when it will pass closest to the planet, but we are less certain of how fast it's travelling "towards or away" from our telescopes, so we don't know if it will go "in front/behind" mars or "into" mars from our point of view when it reaches the closest point. But because we know where it's going in an "up-down, left-right" sense from our point of view, we have a decent idea of where on the planet it will hit IF it hits.

I hope the asteroid hits Mars hard. Then maybe there will be more money flowing to the surveys here, on Earth. More money for science == good.