Peak Oil Happened in July, 2006 its confirmed!

Like it or not, it appears Peak Oil is upon us and if you don't believe me check the price of oil and look at the production data below! These are cold hard facts and are difficult to dispute

Below is EIA, daily monthly average of oil supply
World Oil Supply in thousand of barrels

Link

2001 January 78,181
2001 February 78,053
2001 March 78,765
2001 April 77,766
2001 May 77,264
2001 June 75,867
2001 July 77,866
2001 August 78,106
2001 September 77,626
2001 October 77,577
2001 November 77,864
2001 December 77,257
2002 January 76,395
2002 February 76,521
2002 March 76,314
2002 April 75,878
2002 May 76,724
2002 June 76,527
2002 July 76,995
2002 August 76,796
2002 September 77,336
2002 October 78,764
2002 November 78,867
2002 December 76,795
2003 January 77,316
2003 February 79,057
2003 March 79,535
2003 April 78,491
2003 May 78,673
2003 June 78,028
2003 July 78,903
2003 August 79,455
2003 September 80,360
2003 October 81,294
2003 November 81,464
2003 December 82,751
2004 January 82,206
2004 February 82,206
2004 March 81,992
2004 April 81,841
2004 May 81,595
2004 June 83,582
2004 July 84,178
2004 August 83,222
2004 September 83,795
2004 October 84,601
2004 November 84,402
2004 December 83,850
2005 January 84,060
2005 February 84,438
2005 March 84,566
2005 April 84,958
2005 May 85,379
2005 June 84,897
2005 July 84,533
2005 August 84,847
2005 September 84,151
2005 October 84,146
2005 November 84,894
2005 December 84,702
2006 January 84,560
2006 Febuary 84,501
2006 March 84,060
2006 April 84,417
2006 May 84,241
2006 June 84,128
2006 July 85,467
2006 August 85,203
2006 September 84,742
2006 October 85,051
2006 November 84,545
2006 December 84,296
2007 January 84,017
2007 February 84,343
2007 March 84,112
2007 April 84,586
2007 May 84,322
2007 June 84,499
2007 July 84,954


As you can see, July 2006 was the "peak" of daily monthly average production of 85,467,000 barrels per day. The July 2006 is the "benchmark" to measure the data against. Not since October 2006 have we been over 85,000,000 barrels per day!

The question is this benchmark created from supply or demand?

or

Is Peak Oil really here!

We are just seeing it in the rear mirror?

Originally posted by mel1962

2001 July 77,866

2002 July 76,995

2003 July 78,903

2004 July 84,178

2005 July 84,533

2006 July 85,467

2007 July 84,954

Nice findings, Mel - i'm going to have some fun here; On other days i'd be interested in specifically around the boosts from 78,903 thousand barrels in 2003 to 84,178 thousand barrels in 2004.

But you also make a good point at how for the past three years on July the total number of barrels has remained static between 84,500 and 85,500.

That's a safety margin of just 1,000,000* barrels of oil, and has - as the OP suggests subconciously - not increased beyond 85,500 in the years over-viewed by that study.

In otherwords, 1,000,000 barrels of oil appeared out of thin air.

no prizes for guessing where from.


EDIT: *That's a very rough estimate, now that i think about it - maybe closer to about 600,000.



[edit on 27-10-2007 by Throbber]

[edit on 27-10-2007 by Throbber]

Now add these items for food for thought:

1) Production unable to ramp up on price increase, production peaked in July/August 2006 because of a price spike over $75. Now oil is over $90 and if we are in peak oil I expect a similiar spike in production. Unfortunately data is only out for July 2007. I will continue to watch data to see if the "benchmark" is surpassed, if so it should happen in between August to November 2007. Only time will tell, but the long term price trends indicate supply is not keeping up with demand. International tensions are only a small part of this price rise, IMHO!

Price Link

2) Matt Simmons says that the Saudi Aramco may miss its production goal!

Matt Simmons

3) War drums beating (Iran - US / Turkey - Iraq) metal prices through reaching all time highs. I think the hand writting is on the wall if you want to read it!

I am constantly amazed, how so many on ATS want to put their heads in the sand on the issue of Peak Oil, but we can discuss aliens, moon bases, 9/11 crap!

Unbelievable, sometimes the truth is more scarry than any far out theory!

Not to say that everything else is not entertaining, I just feel that the ATS masses like to ignore real issues and surrond themselves in some kind of fantasy land. Believe me, I find UFO's, JFK, Area 51 very interesting, but I am actually worried about this issue!

I feel like Paul Revere, but no one is listening!

[edit on 10/27/07 by mel1962]

reply to post by mel1962

2001 January 78,181
2001 February 78,053
2001 March 78,765
2001 April 77,766
2001 May 77,264
2001 June 75,867
2001 July 77,866
2001 August 78,106
2001 September 77,626
2001 October 77,577
2001 November 77,864
2001 December 77,257
2002 January 76,395
2002 February 76,521
2002 March 76,314
2002 April 75,878
2002 May 76,724
2002 June 76,527
2002 July 76,995
2002 August 76,796
2002 September 77,336
2002 October 78,764

Ahem. I am sure that they once thought that Jan 2001 was peak oil.



This was one survey from one small company, they could continue higher production, but would get more money for slower production.

reply to post by mel1962


the 911 issue isn't "crap" my friend.

i think it's pretty gross that we as tax paying citizens can't persuade the "machine" to build more refineries. (or better yet, curbing oil lobbyists and start focusing on alt. fuels which are LONG overdue)

we really don't have a voice. and it's sad...

You need to compare the production with the price:



The production and the price went down.
I would start to worry when the output goes down and the price up.

There was another thread *) comparing price and production a little better.
There it looks like the Peak is a flat peak. I guess we will know more in a few month when the trend becomes visible.

edit found:
*) www.abovetopsecret.com...


[edit on 27-10-2007 by g210b]

I do believe peak oil has happened, and the life we all know will be a thing of the past in the very near future.

I haven't done anything to prepare for it, have you?

The end of cheap oil, will drastically change the world, but it's hard to gauge just how fast this change will occur.

reply to post by Rockpuck


If prices go up, production goes up, the peak is still July '06 at the time oil was $75 now its over $90. Production has not been able to ramp up, I appreciate your comments but your proof and examply are not apples to apples!

Peak Oil

reply to post by g210b


Thanks for the ATS link! I should have been little more diligent in my search of ATS, otherwise I wouldn't have started this link!

reply to post by zooplancton


I did not mean to insult you and you can believe what you want, but 9/11 is still speculative theory, IMHO!

This issue is "real" and is backed by "facts"!

reply to post by LDragonFire


I have not prepared fully for peak oil, I have purchased fire arms, silver, large supply of water and non-perishable food.

I still want to get a generator (natural gas), solar panels, build up my supply of firewood and buy additional ammo and guns. I believe we still have time, I believe once oil reaches $100, it will spark demand destruction and a recession.

If you look historically, it's not necessarily confirmed yet, but if we hit summer/fall of 2008, and given worldwide demand increases, we are still seeing flat to declining production, I would say history books will point to june of 2006 as the time we began sliding downhill.

Originally posted by mel1962
I am constantly amazed, how so many on ATS want to put their heads in the sand on the issue of Peak Oil, but we can discuss aliens, moon bases, 9/11 crap!

Give it some time, and have patience. People won't change their world-view overnight. Meanwhile, read this article over at theoildrum. It sums up this issue farily well.

Peak Oil - Believe it or Not?
Our societal infrastructure was built with and expected to continue on cheap liquid fuels. This fixed infrastructure coupled with a pretty much insatiable human demand drive for energy services may result in a once-in-a-species crisis if our planetary resource and ecosystems can no longer keep pace. But Peak Oil ultimately is not about geology or technology. At its core it is a human problem. Our collective cognitive belief systems and the resulting behaviours they engender will play pivotal roles in our failure or success in mitigating and adapting to the vast challenges of both Peak Oil and Climate Change.
[/url]

Peak oil will be the central focus of all our problems within 5 years. Slowly but surely everyone will wake up and see that this is THE issue that is most important to our way of life. If I'm wrong I'll eat my hat and give everyone on ATS a free tank of gas.

The reality is that within 5 years it's likely to be closer to $300 a barrel. Perhaps then reality will sink in.

I do ask my friends alot "What will you do when the oil runs out?"
Most of them don't have a damn clue. With all due respects to them.

GET WITH IT!

I don't believe my country has anything to lay back on after it is all gone, maybe my government needs to be questioned, maybe all governments do?

What will you do when the oil is gone?

That's even better:

www.youtube.com...

talk about 300 dollars a barrel

the news reporter: "could it happen here?"
he: "sure"
she again: "300 dollars !?!?" and with a pricless look!
lol

But Simmon confused me now.. on the one video he talked about peak oil can still be a little out and on this he says peak oil is now..
did I get something wrong? Does he say peak oil is now or later?

But yes I see it comming. 300 dollars sounds a lot today.. yet it's true. Oil is too cheap. As soon as supply can not keep up with demands anymore the prices will explode. When we check back the price increase the last few month and especially the last weeks it already seems like it is happening now. Somehow I think there will still be another hard price drop/correction first before it goes way above 100. The actual rise seems somehow overdone at least I don't see it justified with concrete numbers at the moment. Some war fears are in pla yof course.
I am very courious about the supply numbers of the next months.
Does anyone know a good source where the very latest supply numbers can be found!?

Originally posted by TheStarMan
If you look historically, it's not necessarily confirmed yet, but if we hit summer/fall of 2008, and given worldwide demand increases, we are still seeing flat to declining production, I would say history books will point to june of 2006 as the time we began sliding downhill.

Starman that is my sentiments, I check EIA supply data and August 2007 came in at 83,920, nearly 1.5 million off the "peak" in July '06!

The next update will be in early December for September's Data!

I think alot of people think something is wrong, put they can't quite put there finger on it. I believe Dick Cheney knows about peak oil and I believe we as a country our blocking oil production in this country because we want OPEC and others to pump themselves dry while we have a more valuable supply like ANWAR!

Here is some further evidence that peak may have happened in July 2006, see chart, most producers had larger production in '06 versus '07, significant decline is in Saudi Production!

Crude Oil Production by Selected Country

It also appears that consumption has gone down from last year, no doubt a lack of supply?

Petroleum Consumption in OECD Countries

Originally posted by mel1962
Here is some further evidence that peak may have happened in July 2006,
Crude Oil Production by Selected Country

It also appears that consumption has gone down from last year, no doubt a lack of supply?

Petroleum Consumption in OECD Countries

When I read that graphic on the second link right, then the OECD consumption went a little down only. What's with the world comsumption they didn't show. But checking the grphic again I don't see a slowing in the world consumption till year 2006 so extrapolating it to 2007 then we have more consumption and a little less production in 2007 than 2006.

That puts fuel into the Peak Oil has happend these and would justify the price rise we have seen. I would like to have the concrete world consumption number for 2007.

Originally posted by g210b

That's even better:

www.youtube.com...
talk about 300 dollars a barrel

Just about anything is possible when a resource is under the relatively tight control of people who are willing to engage in such blatant manipulation.

the news reporter: "could it happen here?"
he: "sure"
she again: "300 dollars !?!?" and with a pricless look!
lol

Adjusted for inflation oil can hit 220 USD per barrel before it exceeds the peak price spikes of the 1970's; oil can certainly go to 300 USD a barrel if enough people become informed and start pressing their representatives to investigate and prevent refinery closing and the covert and overt actions that results in PRODUCTION ( not supply in the ground) restrictions. Actually there are no real production problems either but some governments and corporations have been known to hoard oil in private reserves thus creating artificial 'shortages' in a fully supplied market.

On November 13, 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the SPR would be filled, saying, "The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is an important element of our Nation's energy security. To maximize long-term protection against oil supply disruptions, I am directing...the Secretary of Energy to fill the SPR up to its 700 million barrel [111,000,000 m³] capacity."[1] The highest prior level was reached in 1994 with 592 million barrels (94 million m³). At the time of President Bush's directive, the SPR contained about 545 million barrels (87 million m³). Since the directive in 2001, the capacity of the SPR increased by 27 million barrels (4.3 million m³) due to natural enlargement of the salt caverns in which the reserves are stored. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 has since directed the Secretary of Energy to fill the SPR to the full 1 billion barrel authorized capacity, a process which will require a physical expansion of the Reserve's facilities.

On August 17, 2005, the SPR reached its goal of 700 million barrels (111,000,000 m³), or about 96% of its now-increased 727 million barrel capacity. Approximately 60% of the crude oil in the reserve is the less desirable sour (high sulfur content) variety. The oil delivered to the reserve is "royalty-in-kind" oil—royalties owed to the U.S. government by operators who acquire leases on the federally owned Outer Continental Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. These royalties were previously collected as cash, but in 1998 the government began testing the effectiveness of collecting royalties "in kind" - or in other words, acquiring the crude oil itself. This mechanism was adopted when refilling the SPR began, and once filling is completed, revenues from the sale of future royalties will be paid into the Federal treasury.

On January 23, 2007, President George W. Bush suggested in his state of the union speech that congress should approve expansion of the current reserve capacity to twice its current level.

en.wikipedia.org...

www.senate.gov...

releases.usnewswire.com...

www.senate.gov...

www.washingtonpost.com...

And here is a few links that will tell you where some of the 'missing' oil supply went over the last few years:

The recent doubling of prices, Lynch argues, was set in motion four years ago; the 2002 strike by Venezuelan oil workers has kept 1 million or so barrels per day off that country's output of 3.25 million bpd. The subsequent application of socialist economics to the Venezuelan fields has done little to bring that volume back.

The trouble in Venezuela was followed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, resulting in another 1 million bpd reduction to an average 2 million. In 2004 China sent out petroripples by pushing up its consumption by nearly 1 million bpd to 7.4 million. Add in the unrest in Nigeria, which knocked another 500,000 bpd off-line, and the world suddenly had 4% less oil than it expected. By mid-2005 every producer except Saudi Arabia was pumping flat out. The Saudis had 1.5 million bpd of spare production capacity--oil spigots on standby--and it was less desirable heavy crude. The spot markets reflected the unease as traders braced for the next disaster. They got it in hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which knocked 700,000 bpd or so off-line. Still, says Lynch, "These were all one-time transient events that can be fixed or adjusted to." There's reassuring evidence of adjustment from both supply and demand.

www.forbes.com...

www.ccc.nps.navy.mil...

But Simmon confused me now.. on the one video he talked about peak oil can still be a little out and on this he says peak oil is now..

Well he makes a profit out of speculating against rising oil prices but to maintain some level of credibility he has to find ways to 'explain' why it didn't on all the other occasions he claimed as much.

puz:
did I get something wrong? Does he say peak oil is now or later?

As long as he gets any air time on major broadcasters the sky will keep falling without every reaching the ground. Much like the war on 'terrorism' ( by applying state sponsored terror) it's supposed to keep you afraid for as long as the pretense can be maintained.

But yes I see it comming. 300 dollars sounds a lot today.. yet it's true. Oil is too cheap.

Oil is in fact very expensive and at prices much higher than 30 USD ( 2003 dollars and spot prices) per barrel it's just theft.

As soon as supply can not keep up with demands anymore the prices will explode.

That is what a market should lead to and it's not a problem when the resource is in fact scarce. When oil becomes scarcer a few decades from now i would be willing to pay these prices but until then it's just theft or tax.

When we check back the price increase the last few month and especially the last weeks it already seems like it is happening now. Somehow I think there will still be another hard price drop/correction first before it goes way above 100.

BP, alone among oil companies, publishes its estimate of global
industrywide refining profits. This "Global indicator refining margin"
shows US margins, which are mostly profit, at $24.40 per barrel, up from
$17.90 last year. In Europe and Asia, refining margins averaged only $6.50
per barrel, barely above last year's $6.30 a barrel.
"This makes the US consumer the cash cow of gasoline profits," said
Dugan. "It's a clear call for government to investigate what's going on in
refinery costs and profits."

www.prnewswire.com.../www/story/07-24-2007/0004631837&EDATE=

So it's not surprise that they are making very very large profits.

The actual rise seems somehow overdone at least I don't see it justified with concrete numbers at the moment. Some war fears are in pla yof course.

THAT is pretty obvious by now...

I am very courious about the supply numbers of the next months.
Does anyone know a good source where the very latest supply numbers can be found!?

The EIA should have all the numbers you are looking for.

Stellar